The_Rocket
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Posts posted by The_Rocket
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5 hours ago, BarnBurner said:
The huge portion of the fan base you are talking about is likely a lot less than half.
Put up a poll and test your theory.
And Miller did leave money on the table.
I agree miller left money on the table. I personally like the deal and the contract. But you can’t deny that a large portion of the fan base dislike the deal
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considering winnipeg only has 2 NHL calibre Right handed defenseman, i'm not sure they will be wanting to move off demelo. he had good chemistry with morrisey last year as well.
that said, they do need forward depth after shipping out copp last year and not really replacing him. pearson makes sense as a target for them but i dont think they would do it at the cost of demelo
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1 minute ago, IBatch said:
Lol. Millers contract isn't controversial.
He left money on the table. This is my issue. Brock and EP haven't done diddly squat with their RFA deals yet. QHs at least he made a decent attempt at earning his first year. Miller showed what actual money left on the table looks like the past 3 years. Demko did too his first year. People need to wake up to this. UFA your actually expecting to lose money on those deals not gain. RFA's your supposed to gain money. It's a league wide issue - because now RFAs are getting paid like UFAs before they've done anything. Robertson. Stutzle. And EP (for crying out loud it's a bridge!!!) and Brock,
Miller signing not controversial? there's a huge portion of the fan base that think it was the wrong move to sign him. like i would bet half of all fans are against the signing
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5 minutes ago, IBatch said:
Severson has BC roots...his cap hit is also 4.16 ... He's a great target for us. He's also buried behind Hamilton and Marino is going to take over his spot given ages and cap hits.
Maybe we do something different, but i'm fully expecting that this is the most obvious route forward. And don't think he's going to cost us that much to acquire either.
i think we are better off making a cap dump trade next year and signing severson as an FA. most likely outcome here is NJD either keeps him for the season and lets him walk, or they trade at the TDL to a contender if they miss the playoffs. good chance they contender then lets him walk at FA as well. Canucks can be in the mix at that point, maybe trade a mid round pick for his UFA rights to make sure you can seal the deal
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2 hours ago, JM_ said:
comparing Bo to Nugget is like comparing a bull to a chihuahua.
not a nuge fan?
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39 minutes ago, IBatch said:
RNH is a decent comp. One thing does set them aside a little and that's goal scoring. Horvat is a consistent 20 plus goal guy. And was doing that for years with Pearson, Bear and LE on his wing, all while playing against the best in the world. Plus he's a face off ace and has been since he entered the league. Few guys have taken as many face offs as he has. Not a bad comp really. RNH also plays the wing at times - Horvat never does.
As far as second line C's goes - Hayes set the high bar a couple years ago. Last season Horvat outproduced his contract by 1 million. Figure as a UFA he's going to get his pay day. 6.5 x 8 is my prediction. And we won't be sad about that. He's absolutely getting a raise. RNH didn't earn his last deal ... Horvat did. RNH was overpaid during his RFA years by quite a margin, Horvat was a little better. Making up for that somewhat, he's getting a raise.
One last thing. RNH gets a 6% tax break.... that we don't.
5v5 they are pretty even for goal scoring. from 2017/2018 to 2021/2022, they have scored the exact same number of 5v5 goals with pretty similar games played (Nuge has actually played slightly fewer games). Bo scored 9 more total goals over the last 2 seasons 5v5, but nuge had 9 more 5v5 goals in the 2019/2020 season so those differences cancel out. the other 2 years they were the exact same each year head to head.
Bo went off this year for sure, both 5v5 and on the pp, but this is the first time in Bo's career he has paced at over 30 goals per game. i think to assert Bo is a high end goal scorer after having a career shooting percentage year (15.90%) is a bit of a reach. Prior to last season, bo shot at a 12.63% clip throughout his career. if he had've shot at that rate last year, he would have scored ~25 goals and been on a 29 goal pace (still really good!).
at the end of the day i think we can comfortably view bo as a solid 2nd line 5v5 player, high end PP Bumper player, high end face off guy, and is used in all situations.
overpaying a player like that into his mid 30s represents significant risk. much more risk than the controversial JT Miller contract.
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8 hours ago, wildcam said:
Bo Horvat 27, 6'0, 212 lbs, is a core player, very valuable plays severals roles, will produce GP 75-- G 25-29 -- PTS 56--62
Key in face off circle over 56% - PP 13 G -- shut down other teams #1 player -- 200 foot game - makes other player better around him.. Never really put in a offensive role with good wingers..
Horvat is worth between 6.5 - 6.7 million this would be a deal for Vancouver....
Your head is buried in the sand if you think Horvat 8 yrs X 5.25 million?????? Serious please....
Bo Horvat is making 5.5 million now ???
Please that is one of the most ridiculous post I read on Canuck site...
Horvat is worth minimum 6.5 million...AAV
You just ignore all the data that show RNH and Bo are very close comparables? Similar role similar deployment similar scoring… there is precedent for Bo to sign in the low 40’s total money
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here is the correct answer:
Mikheyev - Miller - Boeser
podz - pettersson - garland
pearson - horvat - kuzy
lil dicky - lazar - hogz
hughes - schenn
oel - myers
dermott - rathbone
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1 hour ago, SilentSam said:
Funny , I thought Brock was protected from being traded in this first year of 3,
but it’s the 2nd year he submits a 10 team no trade list.
brocks first year is an RFA year. you can only have trade protection in your UFA years. that's why a player like, auston matthews for example, only has a NMC in his final year, because thats the only UFA year on his contract/
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3 hours ago, Muttley said:
He mentions eight years at 6.5 for Horvat. I think that's just about bang on. Paterson normally has a good take on things...
too much imo. i wouldnt hate it but for 8 years it should be less
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Some important things to note on Bo Horvat from a negotiation stand point: points and points per game are very important factors for contracts, as well as time on ice and usage. last season was the first year bo has ever scored at greater than a 30 goal per 82 games pace. he has never scored at 0.8 points per game or better in one season (last year, 95 players who played at least half the season scored 0.8 points per game or better... Bo came 108th).
I'm a big Bo Horvat fan and think he is an important part to this team, but i do not understand the arguments for 6.5-7 million AAV on a long term deal. he isn't a first line calibre offensive player and even though he plays big minutes and tough matchups, he isn't exactly an ace defensive player. most of his scoring comes on the PP since he is tasked with pretty difficult 5v5 minutes. he's obviously a leader on the team, wears a letter, and has been on the team for a very long time. A proper comparable should have similar 5v5 numbers, similar on-ice role, similar power play boosts to their overall scoring, similar tenure on their team, similar age when their contract started, and similar leadership responsibilities.
By far the closest and best comparable for Bo Horvat is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the Edmonton Oilers.
Last offseason the oilers re-signed RNH to an 8 year deal at 5.125 million AAV. He is almost exactly 2 years older than Bo and his contract starts two seasons before Bo's will. Here are his stat lines over the 3 years prior to signing (2018/19-2020-21) compared to Bo's last 3 years (2019/20-2021/22):
5V5
RNH
14:07 TOI per game
199 games played
37 goals
45 assists
82 points
Bo
14:14 TOI per game
195 games played
28 goals
46 assists
74 points
All Strengths
RNH
20:23 TOI per game
66 goals
99 assists
165 points
Bo TOI per game
19:41
72 goals
72 assists
144 points
They have very similar Time on Ice both 5v5 and total, and similar scoring numbers as well. both were high picks and wear a letter on their team (RNH is an A and Bo is the C). Bo arguably is the better goal scorer on the power play and RNH gets more assists on the PP, but 5v5 its kinda the opposite.
You could argue that nugent hopkins has the McDavid bump to his numbers, but he also spent significant time with puljujarvi, yamamoto, and alex chiasson as his wingers 5v5. Bo's most common linemates 5v5 are tanner pearson, nils hoglander, and brock boeser (followed closely by conor garland) obviously not mcdavid level players but still good players for the most part.
RNH plays a bigger role on the PK for the oilers compared to Bo for the Canucks, but they get similar 5v5 matchup assignments (maybe bo gets a bit tougher assignments).
Overall I'd say they are very comparable players and there isn't much room to argue Bo deserve significantly more than RNH. adjusting for increased cap inflation would bring bo to 8 by 5.25 or $42 million total money. while this does represent a decrease from his current cap hit, its worth noting that Bo's current contract is all base salary with no trade protection. RNH's new contract (which also was less AAV than his previous deal) had deferred income for after the escrow is paid back, signing bonuses in the middle years, buyout protection by having low base salary in the final years, and a full NMC for the duration of the contract. the Canucks could utilize a similar structure in order to keep Bo on basically the same contract.
This should be where the target contract is for the team and convincing bo to take this deal should be a priority
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55 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:
6.5M x 8 for Bo.. Y or N?
Overpay
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1 hour ago, J.I.A.H.N said:
That is not actually correct............
It totally depends on who replaces who......................
An Example...........
If you depth at wing, allows you to trade a winger, and the replacement winger is only .25 of a goal/point difference, and the defenseman you add gives you a .50 goal/point difference, whether that be offense or defensively, then the net gain, may slant toward acquiring the defenseman.............
It always about what is better for the team, not the player
It’s about more than goal/point totals. Garland was the best forward on the team last year in 5v5 shot differential, 5v5 goal differential, and 5v5 xGoal differential.
Murphy would be the 3rd best Dman on the team an only a marginal step up from Myers.
doesn’t matter who is replacing garland, this makes the team worse because Canucks are giving up a very very good player and only getting back a decent player
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Garland is a much better player than Murphy. Losing on-ice value in order to fit positional needs is a great way to build a mediocre team
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One for one. Players are similar in terms of skill. Guentzel more of a sniper miller more of a playmaker. If pens think they can sign miller on a home town discount, would they make the swap? Guentzel is same age as Horvat so fits Vancouvers time line a bit better.
also worth noting that Pittsburgh currently only has enough cap space to carry a 22 man roster. After this trade they would be able to add a 23rd player due to cap savings.
from Vancouvers side, they would only be able to run a 22 man roster after this trade, unless Poolman goes LTIR as well
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Just now, The_Rocket said:
Wow can’t believe sharks let Dahlen go…
Anyways let’s check how Karlsson is doin
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Wow can’t believe sharks let Dahlen go…
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No chance NYR trades all that for PLD
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4 hours ago, spook007 said:
Cheers Rocket.
It was more the original statement that Peake was just a younger Schenn... and that's why I said, if this isn't, what we're looking for.
He has been amazing cover for QH. If only he had had some speed, he would have been perfect for what we're looking for.
I could definitely live with your above proposal though.
Yeah I’m a big fan of the schenn/Hughes pairing.
I’ve seen a lot of chatter about finding Hughes the perfect partner, but I look at Hedman and Rutta, and imo that’s the type of partner Hughes needs. A low maintained, reliable, cheap player.
schenn is great for right now. They will need to find another at some point and peake could be it
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On 7/4/2022 at 9:39 AM, spook007 said:
Nice write up Rocket.
But is this not really what we are looking for, to play with either QH or OEL? A stay at home crease clearing D man? A younger version of Schenn?I like Peake, think he’d be a good pickup. Wouldn’t want him to be a principle piece in a JT Miller trade though.
the value in this trade heavily leans in CBJ favour. Middle 6 winger, 4/5 d-man, and trading down 9 spots for a (overpayed) 4/5 Dman and an Elite 1C
canucks lose this trade.
Swap out 15 OA for next years 2nd, take out roslovic and Myers, add Cuelmans on CBJ side, and I think it’s much closer
peake
cuelmans
6th Overal
for
JT miller
2023 2nd
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8 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:
Looks like Gavrikov is listed as left D though. I noticed him quite a bit this year when Columbus played against us and also when I watched one of their other games. He also had that infamous back and forth with Garland. We were down 0-3 to Columbus at home and ended up winning the game 4-3. Garland dragged our team into the fight and Podz scored a big goal in that game.
True he is LD but he is very good. Handedness shouldn’t be the priority, ability should be. Just play someone on the right side.
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1 hour ago, Hogs & Podz said:
Would you like to elaborate? From the games, highlights and articles on him (I admit not thoroughly) seems to be a great, up and coming new aged stay at home defenceman. With a good to great awareness in his own end. Able to box out opponents from in front of the net. What have you seen that concerns you?
He blocks a lot of shots and throws a lot of hits but he’s not a transition player or puck mover. Stay at home defenseman sounds about right. Can get caught out of position and doesn’t control the gap well but will clear out the net front and keep opponents to the outside. Still gives up a lot but limits high danger chances against.
he’d be a nice piece but maybe for like, a 3rd or 4th round pick in a trade, not in the deal described above.
miller is the most valuable piece in the above trade, the 3rd most valuable piece is the 15th overall pick. That means out of the 6 pieces invoked, most of the value being given up is from the Canucks.
now, if you took out one of Roslovic or peake and added a really good player like, say, Gavrikov, I would be very interested.
gavrikov imo is the perfect player to target. Better defensively than peak (tho less blocks and hits) but also a great skater, puck mover, and passer. Could play beside Hughes or OEL and would instantly be our 2nd best D-man.
peake would basically just be another Luke schenn unless he takes a massive step which he hasn’t shown he is capable of
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Andrew peake is the most overrated player in any JT Miller proposal.
canucks lose this trade easily
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2 hours ago, aGENT said:
Lyubushkin is WAY more physical. Similar results + more sandpaper = better.
Poolman is a WAY better skater. Similar results + mobility = better.
Where do we get a RHD from? (Discussion)
in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Posted
has to be through trade. outside of #1 Dmen, contending teams build their D-core through trade
Tampa: McDonogh, Sergachev, Cernak all acquired via trade
Colorado: Toews, Girard, Johnson, Manson all acquired via trade
Florida: Montour, Forsling (technically waivers), Chiarot all acquired via trade
Toronto: Muzzin, Girodano Acquired via Trade,
Carolina: Skjei, Bear acquired via trade (add burns and coughlin this season)
Calgary: Hanafin, Zadorov (add weegar this year)
Rangers: Trouba, Fox, Lindgren
Pretty much any contending team as at least 2 Dmen aquired via trade. The Canucks have OEL and Dermott. aquiring one more top 4 dman is their best bet and the best way to do it is via trade. you already have hughes, you dont need another #1. just a coupla #3s.