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How Luongo's Contract Will Affect Trade Value... Not In The Way You Might Think.


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#31 nucklebucker

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 08:48 AM

Good article.

The downside to his contract is the tail end. There is no way he's worth that cap hit at 38 years old, much less 42.

But ... the overlooked point there is that it will be a tradable (and possibly valuable) contract.
Heres why:
1. This cap loophole (long contracts with cap buried in retirement years) will likely be closed in the new CBA which means these contracts will be rare.
2. These contracts are great for the poorer cap-floor teams. To have a 5.5 cap hit and a 1 or even 3 mil. salary is a dream for these teams. think about last summer when the panthers and others were scrambling to pickup enough salary to make the rising floor. For them to pick up cap hits greater than the salary would have been a dream and they are likely willing to pay something for that value--especially if there are a number of teams who want this and few of these contracts coming available.
3. In reality GMs only care so much about 10 years down the line anyways. They won't be around.

#32 uber_pwnzor

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 09:15 AM

So lets keep him instead!!! I hope....

But people saying Schnieder will be cheaper, not by any significant amount that would be the difference between getting a top player and not....only gonna be a matter of 1.5mil max, probably less, of a cheaper contract....Fans think Lu's contract is preventing us from getting a Shea Weber and Schnieder will be soo much cheaper


Well, as his cap hit is like 5.3 million, 1.5 million would be like 30% of his hit...

#33 gradin123

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 10:11 AM

It is true the salary cap going up does make Luongo more tradeable. Also, the fact the biggest part of his salary was paid in year one makes him more attractive for teams worried about cash and not just cap space.

However, that being said Luongo is a player already showing signs of decline at 33 and his failures in the playoffs have been noticed by others around the league. Roberto hasn't been the same goalie since he hurt his groin in 2008. Yes, he has still been good but he is no longer great.

In 2006/2007 Luongo was at his peak as a player and was absolutely great in the playoffs but in the playoffs since he has been very average. His save% in the playoffs excluding the 2006/2007 season is only .908 which by today's standards is average at best. I also think that .908 fairly reflects the inconsistency we have seen from Roberto during that time, I don't think he is a "choker" I just think the league knows that his lateral movement isn't what is use to be and takes advantage.

Going forward his contract therefore is still a concern because most scouts know Luongo's level of play has declined and have to be worried it will decline further.

#34 bluesman60

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:00 AM

If people still believe that Luongo is an elite goalie in this league, then a $5.33 mil cap hit is not only manageable, but attractive. The problem is, many people don't believe that Luongo is in that elite category anymore. His numbers this year were pretty bad, and that was with the best team in the league in front of him. He has collapsed in the playoffs every year for the past 3 years (excluding this year when Schneider stole the #1 job). He's not getting any younger either. Even if a team is still very interested after considering all that, they have to realize that if they make the trade, they're locked in in a big way. These facts are enough to make any GM pause.

Can the trade be done? Probably. Will we get a good return for Luongo? No.


If Vancouver is able to trade him, it would follow that the team trading him would not be any more locked in than Vancouver?

#35 chicocanuck

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:18 AM

If people still believe that Luongo is an elite goalie in this league, then a $5.33 mil cap hit is not only manageable, but attractive. The problem is, many people don't believe that Luongo is in that elite category anymore. His numbers this year were pretty bad, and that was with the best team in the league in front of him. He has collapsed in the playoffs every year for the past 3 years (excluding this year when Schneider stole the #1 job). He's not getting any younger either. Even if a team is still very interested after considering all that, they have to realize that if they make the trade, they're locked in in a big way. These facts are enough to make any GM pause.

Can the trade be done? Probably. Will we get a good return for Luongo? No.


Luongo's stats for 2012: .919 sv% 2.41 GAA

Luongo's stats as a Canuck: .919 sv% 2.35 GAA

Luongo's career stats: .919 sv% 2.52 GAA

How were his numbers any different this year?

Edited by chicocanuck, 05 May 2012 - 11:19 AM.

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#36 Papayas

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:19 AM

It is true the salary cap going up does make Luongo more tradeable. Also, the fact the biggest part of his salary was paid in year one makes him more attractive for teams worried about cash and not just cap space.

However, that being said Luongo is a player already showing signs of decline at 33 and his failures in the playoffs have been noticed by others around the league. Roberto hasn't been the same goalie since he hurt his groin in 2008. Yes, he has still been good but he is no longer great.

In 2006/2007 Luongo was at his peak as a player and was absolutely great in the playoffs but in the playoffs since he has been very average. His save% in the playoffs excluding the 2006/2007 season is only .908 which by today's standards is average at best. I also think that .908 fairly reflects the inconsistency we have seen from Roberto during that time, I don't think he is a "choker" I just think the league knows that his lateral movement isn't what is use to be and takes advantage.

Going forward his contract therefore is still a concern because most scouts know Luongo's level of play has declined and have to be worried it will decline further.


he was the goalie of a team who made it to the SCF game 7 with 2 shutouts in that series just a season ago...and here you are telling people Luongo had been on decline since what..? 2008?

Cdc fans always treat out players like a computer game and forgot players DO have off years.

#37 bluesman60

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:23 AM

Thank you for posting that....good read.
All I care about is that when one of our goalies gets traded, that we end up with a gamebreaker coming back to the Canucks. MG has a chance to significantly improve this teams chances of winning the Cup if he can spin one of these goalies into one or more pieces that can help the team be a force for a few more years.
If we keep Luo, I would want a player or players that can improve the defense because Luongo coughs up rebounds. If we keep Schneider, I would want to get a big forward like Nash so that our top 2 lines improve. Both goalies have their strengths and weaknesses but either one is a goalie that you can win with.
Luongo's cap hit is only an issue with a team that doesn't have cap space. That said, my gut feeling is that it will be Schneider that gets traded. One of the reasons for this is that he doesn't have to submit a list of teams that he is willing to go to and is younger plus his numbers are just as good as Luo.. The team trading for him is also in control of the new contract being signed. The downside of trading Schneider in a one for one trade is that you don't free up cap space to accomodate a gamebreaker with a big contract coming to Vancouver. You would have to have a multi player trade such as Higgins, Raymond and Schneider for Nash and their 1st round pick in this years draft. The difference in cap hit would be made up by the cap increase limit.

Edited by bluesman60, 05 May 2012 - 11:28 AM.


#38 gradin123

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:35 AM

he was the goalie of a team who made it to the SCF game 7 with 2 shutouts in that series just a season ago...and here you are telling people Luongo had been on decline since what..? 2008?

Cdc fans always treat out players like a computer game and forgot players DO have off years.


Yes. Chris Osgood went to back to back Stanley Cups and had 5 shutouts in those 2 years with a .928 save %. Going to the Stanley Cup doesn't make you a great goalie especially when you had at least 5 poor games in the Stanley Cup run.

If you can't see Luongo's level of play has declined since he first became a Canuck you are not objective. Yes, his regular season save % is hovered in the same area but he is also playing less games and the league save% has increased during that time.

I'm not saying Luongo is bad. He just isn't as good as he use to be.

#39 bd71

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:45 AM

Who was Mike Smith before he came to Phoenix? Bryzgalov was an MVP candidate before leaving Phoenix. Imagine Luongo on a team coached by Tippett, Trotz or Hitchcock.


Mike Smith cap hit of 2M for two years. Phoenix isn't paying 6.7M for six years when they can turn a guy like Mike Smith into a Conn Smythe winner.

And the Canucks can't do a good enough job with him?

#40 chicocanuck

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:56 AM

Unfortunately, smart people already knew all of this, and dumb people can't understand it. His cap hit is a bargain and in a few years his actual salary will dip beneath his cap hit which will make it a bargain for the cost conscious GM. The term of the contract is a concern, but remember he becomes tradable at his own request in 2 yrs and no trade clause at all in 4 years. thank you for posting an intelligent article. A rarity amongst the garbage that floats around when there is no real news and teams like VAN, PIT,CHI,SJ and DET are out of the playoffs.


His actual salary dips below the cap hit in 7 years. So the cost-conscious GM will have to be willing to dedicate 5mil of the team's cap to a 40 y/o goalie who will likely not be as good of a goalie as he is now (if he hasn't already retired).

I understand the theory, but it's not like GM's are jumping at the chance to trade for Luongo because of this detail in his contract. Whichever team trades for Luongo will still have to pay him 6 mill for the next 7 years, for an aging goalie with consistency issues.

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#41 rkyway

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:59 AM

People seem to just take it for granted Luongo going to be injury free over the next ten years. The debacle of Rick DiPietro should make people think. He doesn't play and gets paid huge bucks. A twelve year contract is fiscal insanity.
- people seem to think cap hit is all that counts; not if you're a lot of teams... as basic salary counts a lot.
- I find it sad that so many fans think it's cool for MG to have scammed the league with this contract. (It shows us once again what a classless character he is.)

#42 6string

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 12:00 PM

people are calling this a bargain, which would suggest our return in a trade will be very good, i doubt it, you guys will be calling for gillis's head after this deal, as the hodgson deal remains hotly debated....

the canucks are not dealing from a positon of power from two levels. number one, if luongo is not dealt how much will schneider cost us with luongo on a cap hit?...can we truly afford two starters ( while one sits ) at some 8 million or more at the expense of another d-man and a power forward ( submit your roster change here ).

number two, roberto submitted a short list ( advantage to teams on the list ), so most of the entire pool is eliminated from service demands and the tampas, torontos of the list can low ball with the inflexibility the canucks will suffer from.

that's how i see it from outside of the ( canuck ) box.

#43 NASLUND 4EVER

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 12:18 PM

i like lu, but he is making too many mistakes for this franchise... he still is and always will be my favourite goalie, but not on the canucks, i dont want Gillis to keep him, because it is too risky. we havn't won the Stanley Cup before and Vancouver and all of Canada wants one. so if this is to happen then we must get rid of Luongo and start Shcneider and have Lack as our backup. maybe trade Luongo to Columbus and get Nash out of it, that probably wouldnt work but it could go something like that. or trade him to Chicago and get Toews or Kane because Chicago is struggling with goalies.... Bottom line: Get rid of Luongo. It'll be for the best ...

#44 Primal Optimist

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 12:36 PM

the only mistake this playoffs was replacing Lu with Schneids: now the future of both goalies is murky looking for Vancouver and our teams owner does not miss this detail. AV lost in round one with his star goalie on the bench, healthy. Now that star wants out, and the backup wants star money and his own team. Nice AV, way to implode the status quo on your way out.

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#45 Edler's Mind Tricks

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 12:39 PM

My question is this. If it was such a good deal why does everybody want him gone? Because Canuck fans are slightly senile... Even the preteens. Why trade a guy two years into a twelve year deal if it was a great deal? Because we have a potentially ultra-elite goalie.


Edited by Edler's Mind Tricks, 05 May 2012 - 12:39 PM.

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#46 WL Canuck Fan

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 12:40 PM

My question is this. If it was such a good deal why does everybody want him gone? Why trade a guy two years into a twelve year deal if it was a great deal?

And the one thing this article forgets to mention, as does pretty much everyone else, Luongo failed for years to get a weaker Panthers team into the playoffs. Does he really make a weaker team better? Is his 6.7 million over the next six years something a struggling team wants to commit to? His numbers now aren't as good as they were when he left Florida six years ago.

And whether we like it or not, Luongo doesn't have the best reputation throughout the league. Heck, he isn't very well liked in Vancouver. Loads of fans want him gone. Players who are pushed out of town don't usually command big packages.

I think a lot of people are hoping that something happens and a big package comes back but it likely won't happen. A low revenue team needs tp pay him 42 million dollars over six years. That's a lot for an aging goaltender who may be trending down. He did just lose his job.

Outside of Bryzgalov which goalie would you swap for Luongo in the playoffs right now? I don't think any of those seven teams would start Luongo and St. Louis probably wouldn't even dress him ahead of both of their guys.


Everybody wants him gone because our expectations are COMPLETELY unrealistic. Case in pint, the Boston bruins were knocked out in the first round also, yet no one is suggesting trade Thomas.

That said, there are reasons to trade him, mostly cap oriented.

Schneids is not getting a 2yr 10M deal, think more like Hiller 4 yrs ago, or Bryzgalov 4 yrs ago. Signing your first starting spot, 2.5 for 2 years. or 2.25 for 3 yrs.

So, in trading Lou, we gain some 2.5M in cap space. Add that to a player like Malholtra or Raymond, and suddenly we have 5M freed up, let alone what we gain in cap increase. 5M is a lot. It's Booth, or adding Joffrey Lupul, Ryan Malone, RJ Umberger, Patrick Sharpe, Dustin Byfuglien and the list goes on.

The other reason Lou is attractive to another team is the 35 yr old "retire and your cap comes off" clause. April 4 of 2014 he turns 35. So, if he is declining, he could retire, and cap come off. His salary stays high till he turns 39, and it is possible to have a career that long. See Dwayne Roloson, Tim Thomas is 37, Brodeur 39.

There are some reasons to trade, one of the most significant being if he no longer wants to play here. If he is unhappy, or it causes family problems, we are better off to move him. That being said, we then have to be able to count on Schneids. There is some risk right there.
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#47 LegionOfDoom

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 12:42 PM

This guy did his homework!

#48 WL Canuck Fan

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 12:45 PM

People seem to just take it for granted Luongo going to be injury free over the next ten years. The debacle of Rick DiPietro should make people think. He doesn't play and gets paid huge bucks. A twelve year contract is fiscal insanity.
- people seem to think cap hit is all that counts; not if you're a lot of teams... as basic salary counts a lot.
- I find it sad that so many fans think it's cool for MG to have scammed the league with this contract. (It shows us once again what a classless character he is.)


How is he classless? The league and the NHLPA hired a team of lawyers to go over the details of the current CBA. It is not classless to play within the rules. Remember, you have to submit a contract to the league for approval before it can be ratified.

In other words, if revenue canada gives me a tax break, i am classless to take it. What i should do is send them an extra 50 bucks for good measure.
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#49 Tragoedia

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 01:34 PM

Thanks. What I've been saying all along, but so many idiots think they are smarter than the GM fo the team. 99% haven't even read the contract details to even know what they are criticizing. All they know is someone on the radio said it was bad. Now these radio hosts more often then not, are not lawyers or agents, or anyone who deals with the salary cap system, so they have little idea how it works.

#50 WiDeN

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 01:55 PM

Oh come on guys . Once again Luongo's thread . Why We r wasting our time for cheap topic every single day .

HE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE . And we know that very well . Then why Guys ?


Please don't post Stupid Thread about luongo's trade .

You didn't have to click on it.

Also, this is an article specifically about his affordability, and not some random thought that should have gone in to an existing thread.

I am not sure what you're getting at.

I thought it was a good article.

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#51 cmpunk

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 01:55 PM

Well, as his cap hit is like 5.3 million, 1.5 million would be like 30% of his hit...


IF we save 1.5mil in cap space, what is that really going to get us?? And when players like Burrows are needed to be resigned. And he will not sign another 2mil per year contract. If thats what he is offered, major slap in his face
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#52 shimy1

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 02:34 PM

see the problem with this contract is that most people thing 1 dimensionally, so they dont see just how great it is. its Amazing how many ppl say hes making 10 million dollars... when that just isnt true...

#53 Van_City123

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 02:37 PM

Great read thanks!

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#54 erkayloomeh

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 03:00 PM

If GMMG and Stevie Y are emailing back and forth, MG send him this clip and Steve y send him one of Luos contract being so long. Its like going and buying a used Toyota. You are focused on telling the salesman its weaknesses and age, and hes stressing that its a toyota and the resale is really high bcuz of the name.
His value is argued so back and forth because there are so many ways to look at it. Ill bet even MG doesnt know what he can get until someone starts making offers for lou (if that ever even happens)
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#55 6string

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 03:35 PM

If GMMG and Stevie Y are emailing back and forth, MG send him this clip and Steve y send him one of Luos contract being so long. Its like going and buying a used Toyota. You are focused on telling the salesman its weaknesses and age, and hes stressing that its a toyota and the resale is really high bcuz of the name.
His value is argued so back and forth because there are so many ways to look at it. Ill bet even MG doesnt know what he can get until someone starts making offers for lou (if that ever even happens)
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you mention tampa but does stevie y really want another long term to deal to go along with lecavalier's unless he can get lou wihtout giving up too much. the two contracts would be a real strain and stevie would need to move some high end calibre to make this move....ya gotta think from their end too.

#56 Underachieving Hero of CDC

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 04:53 PM

Luongo's stats for 2012: .919 sv% 2.41 GAA

Luongo's stats as a Canuck: .919 sv% 2.35 GAA

Luongo's career stats: .919 sv% 2.52 GAA

How were his numbers any different this year?

His numbers this year were middle of the pack in terms of goalies leaguewide. For an "elite goaltender" playing on the best team in the league...those aren't good stats.

#57 Pineapples

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 04:55 PM

My question is this. If it was such a good deal why does everybody want him gone? Why trade a guy two years into a twelve year deal if it was a great deal?

And the one thing this article forgets to mention, as does pretty much everyone else, Luongo failed for years to get a weaker Panthers team into the playoffs. Does he really make a weaker team better? Is his 6.7 million over the next six years something a struggling team wants to commit to? His numbers now aren't as good as they were when he left Florida six years ago.

And whether we like it or not, Luongo doesn't have the best reputation throughout the league. Heck, he isn't very well liked in Vancouver. Loads of fans want him gone. Players who are pushed out of town don't usually command big packages.

I think a lot of people are hoping that something happens and a big package comes back but it likely won't happen. A low revenue team needs tp pay him 42 million dollars over six years. That's a lot for an aging goaltender who may be trending down. He did just lose his job.

Outside of Bryzgalov which goalie would you swap for Luongo in the playoffs right now? I don't think any of those seven teams would start Luongo and St. Louis probably wouldn't even dress him ahead of both of their guys.


I wouldn't expect him to take a team like Toronto to the playoffs, but Tampa he could simply because goaltending was their weakness this year. Just because he makes a lot of money isn't a reason to hate the contract, it fits well with our team. And honestly, I would pick Luongo to dress ahead of Elliott, Holtby, Brodeur, Lundqvist(because Lu seems to do well against the caps), and of course Bryzgalov.

And if his reputation isn't so good around the league, that makes it better to keep him and trade Cory instead.

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#58 Underachieving Hero of CDC

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 05:11 PM

I'm so tired of you and your dumb 1040 followers... please leave and never comeback

I don't listen to 1040. I just watch the games.

Edited by Underachieving Hero of CDC, 05 May 2012 - 05:13 PM.


#59 RunningWild

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 05:35 PM

Great article! Lots of good tidbits like avg'ing $4M per playoff game. Yowsa that's big $$. Aquillini must be chewing nails right now.

But this article doesn't address perhaps the biggest factor in determining Lu's value this summer, supply and demand. Personally, I don't think there will be many #1 proven goalies on the market this summer, supply will be very low. Dreger/McKenzie have speculated that Cgy's owners don't want to rebuild, so Kipper won't be on the market. IMO, it leaves potentially only 3: Lu, Thomas, Vokoun. Maybe guys like Bernier, Lindback will be available, but they've never played more than 25 NHL reg season games a yr - they're unproven and therefore a huge risk. Thomas's contract expires next summer, so there's a risk he won't re-sign and then that team is back to square one looking for a goaltender.

On the flip side, there should be a minimum 5 teams looking for a #1 goalie (Tor, TB, NJ, Chi, Clmbs). Demand > supply, therefore cost of acquiring these guys increases. Of course, Lu's 'list' and that whole debacle complicated things, but I don't see Gillis taking a bad contract in return - that would defeat the purpose.

#60 6string

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 05:36 PM

I don't listen to 1040. I just watch the games.

yup me too, cut off tv as well, tired of sportsnet canuck lapdogs and the rest of em....i listen more to knowledgable fans than i do media for opinion n insight to the game




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