[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

43 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

thats a really interesting point. This is certainly where interviews come into play, also coach-ability, work ethic, family history, and how coaches view them in a teams leadership group would be really important. And then just good old gut feel/eye test of experienced hockey people. And then just plain old luck. 

 

I think there are certain important points you can look for in the way they play too. One is the ability to make plays in limited time and space. Things happen faster and faster at the AHL and then NHL level and there is very limited space to operate. Byfield is a great example of the negative side of this in my opinion. So much size and skill but big question marks around his ability to read and react with a high-end NHL pace. And this has often been an issue for Swedes especially, who would excel on the big ice but have trouble adapting to small ice in North America. McTavish this year and Rodion Amirov last year are the other end of the spectrum, guys with maybe not the highest skill levels, but they get a big bump from me for the ability to make plays in tight down low.

 

The other biggest factor I look for as far as projecting is players who can play a responsible defensive and possession game first but also create offense out of that. Guys like Lysell, Perfetti, Johnson are immensely skilled players, but take a lot of risks to create offense. They will need/ have needed to make significant adjustments once they turn pro, and especially in the NHL, or they're going to have trouble earning ice time. Samu Tuomaala and Jean-Luc Foudy I worry about the other way: very highly skilled, but they spend too much time just cycling on the perimeter, and I'm not sure how well they know how to create offense toward the net. Chris Tierney is a great example of this in the NHL, or the Islander's fourth line is the prototype, although for them it is by design, with Cizikas, Martin , Cutterbuck happy to just grind it out down low but rarely create scoring chances. Lucas Raymond, Marco Rossi, William Eklund, Fyodor Svechov are in that sweet spot, where they take care of the puck first, but still manage to create offense. Raymond compared to Holtz at World Juniors was a perfect example. When Sweden was down in close games, Holtz was throwing it away trying to force offense, but Raymond just stuck the script, played the right way, and managed to find opportunities to create offense.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

Just now, Alflives said:

What facts?  The guy has a full beard already.  The fact is he’s clearly more physically mature than many of his peers.  He’s going early anyway.  It’s moot (or moo for many here.) 

The fact is your speculation was false. You guessed that the improvement came from his physical maturity. But he was already a giant at 16.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Maybe McTavish improved dramatically because he matured into a more man-like body sooner than his peers?  I really like MacT but think he’s closer to his ceiling than a lot of the other guys.  Many of these other players still have a lot of maturing to do.  

Nope. He was already 196 at U17s. I had the same criticism at that time. He was a bull there, able to physically impose his will all over the ice. He's added a legit high-end playmaking element to his game. I still think there is definitely something to the point you're making, but lets just make sure we're straight about the facts.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

48 minutes ago, Wolfgang Durst said:

Thanks for your work and passion.

First of all I would like to mention that some scouting reports explicitly state that Clarke's defensive game is a work in progress. 

GM's try to envision what player a prospect can become in 2-3 years from now based on the scouting reports from their scouts. I guarantee you that almost every prospect in this years draft has its weaknesses / areas that need improvement.

More important is:

1. Can this specific weakness / some weaknesses be resolved with continued training / development?

2. Is the prospect well aware of the areas that need improvement?

3. Does the prospect have the work ethic and the stamina to work on these areas continuously?

 

In this regard I really like Kent Johnson. His coach said about Kent Johnson that he is the most improved player on the University of Michigan team once the season 2020/2021 wrapped up. He worked on his skating with a special coach to get better in this area.

If I remember correctly Jim Benning said about Joni Jurmo's defensive game that this is an area which needs improvement and that it can be improved with proper and continous training.

 

To me the most improved player in the draft since 2019 U17s when I first saw many of them, has been Mason McTavish. He didn't look like anything special to me at the time, looked like a player who was content to wait for the play to come to him, but now he's making plays happen practically every shift.

 

I actually think Clarke is the better defender than Luke Hughes and certainly Edvinsson. Typically he is at his best defending the neutral zone in transition. He's another player who's made enormous improvement since U17s. At that tournament he wasn't needed to be a rover and his role was more of a two-way defenseman, staying back more, making great breakout plays but rarely carrying the puck up ice or directly creating offense himself. In Slovakia he was forced to make major adjustments, particularly to the size and strength of opponents, but also to the level of offensive skill and deceptiveness. At the junior level I thought he was a really solid defender, but he was definitely exposed in his own zone at times by experienced pro hockey players. But he also added this new element to his game: he'd always had a reputation as an offensive defenseman, but he took it to a whole new level down the stretch in Slovakia, constantly carrying the puck through the neutral zone, beating forecheckers, walking the offensive blueline with so much skill and poise he would shake off defending forwards like a minor nuisance.  Probably this was a bit more what he was in GTHL and he toned it down when he made the step up to junior, and we likely would have seen it come out in Barrie this year, but to do what he did against pros in Slovakia was pretty incredible.

 

I like your point about GMs trying to envision what prospects can become. NHL scouts are obviously all really good at assessing what players are right now, but abstracting to what they could be in five years is a bit of a different skillset. But I don't think it is something you can do just by reading reports, it takes a higher level of familiarity with the players, so I think that is more the role of the scouting director and head scouts.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

Trying to get a better handle on Clarke's defensive play. Head-to-head situations give a better idea of how the player will fair against other elite players, the kind he's likely to be up against in the NHL someday, and especially if he's at the top of the lineup drawing top matchups

 

So I looked at him in the gold medal game vs. Russia's top line. Note this is a powerhouse line. Svechkov is a likely top 15 pick for this year, Miroshnichenko (hereafter Miro) is very probably a top 5 pick for 2022, and Yurov is possible top 5, certainly top 15 for 2022.
 

Opening shift he has a poke on Miro and then plays Yurov well down low.
 

Eliminates Miro on the boards, but Miro still chips it over to continue the zone entry.
 

Again he fails to eliminate the rush against Miro. Two on three he maybe could have stepped up sooner, but I guess you have to respect Miro's speed and power to beat you along the wall? Shortly after he has a stick lift on Miro in front and then a poke on Svechkov.
 

A bump on Svechkov knocks the puck loose and then a poke on Yurov for the exit.
 

This one is the most troublesome. Starts with the poke on Miro. But then Svechkov do what he do, draws the defenseman in and finds the lane.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

Meh.

[8th Annual CDCFL Entry Draft (2021 Edition)]

The San Jose Sharks select, out of Barrie Colts via Nove Zamky, Brandt Clarke.

 

[CDC Fantasy League 2020-21 (Apply Within!)]

21 hours ago, theminister said:

We are young, we are lean, and we have assets to trade.

Is this the new Lana Del Ray song?

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

53 minutes ago, Sp3nny said:

https://www.nhl.com/news/2021-nhl-draft-kent-johnson-vs-dylan-guenther/c-325512392

 

Interesting read from 10 NHL scouts.

Interesting. Figured when Central had Johnson so high the real scouts were probably higher on him than we realized. You've been a pretty stout defender of him for a while.

[8th Annual CDCFL Entry Draft (2021 Edition)]

The San Jose Sharks select, from Djurgårdens IF of the Swedish Hockey League, William Eklund.

 

 

 

 

[CDC Fantasy League 2020-21 (Apply Within!)]

54 minutes ago, theminister said:

From the San Jose Sharks, Seattle selects F Patric Hornqvist 

 

You mother effer.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

50 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Well, Button isn't a GM anymore for a reason but he knows his stuff. Just because you believe in analytics doesn't mean you just go draft a guy with a high fensi or corsi, or horki, .I think it would be quite weird to draft a winger in their situation when you have the high caliber Center right there. Unless they're keeping Eichel maybe that's incentive for him if they draft Eklund to ride shotgun. Otherwise Franchise D and Center are far more important than a winger, especially on a weaker team.

 

<1%

 

https://www.chatsports.com/calgary-flames/a/source/burke-flames-halted-trade-talks-on-ristolainen-based-on-analytics-15700885

This is just the most glaring example but we're seeing all over the NHL the past couple years how dead seriously teams are taking anaytics. There was a good article last year about how big a factor they have become in contract negotiations even.

 

I competely agree that C and D are more valuable, if all things equal. But I don't think all things are equal here, at least not regarding Eklund vs. Beniers. I completely understand where people are coming from who still have him ranked 2nd. He put himself right in the middle of the conversation with his U20s performance. , where he showed the ability to read and react in tight spaces and the dynamic skating to be a gamebreaker at the level. But when he went back to NCAA against much older players and closer scrutiny that comes with top two pick consideration, his lack of high-end technical skills have stood out. I've seen him blow a tire trying to cut back on defenders in the corner on multiple occasions, or trying to shift his feet to deke defenders one on one, and his stickhandling just isn't nearly tight enough to keep up with his ability to process the game at high speeds. He has all the hockey sense, compete, tenacity, defensive commitment, etc. to ensure that he'll be a good NHL player, but the offensive upside is a big question mark.

 

Eklund, on the other hand, is one of the best I've ever seen at this age at manipulating the corners. With his lower body strength, balance, edgework and ability to be deceptive, he is already twisting pro defenders in the SHL into pretzels on a regular basis. Such an important skill in the NHL. His creativity and deceptiveness carrying the puck into the offensive zone are also second to none in this draft. Very few weaknesses with the player, and there is some room to question his offensive upside since he isn't a guy who likes to attack the inside much, but it's not unreasonable to think he could be a regular 75 or 80 point guy with the potential for 90 or 100 points in the right situation.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

1 hour ago, R3aL said:

What do you think the odds are that Eklund goes 1st overall?

 

Well, I said for some time before the lottery that if a team with a heavy European scouting presence (particularly CBJ or DET) won the lottery, there would be a pretty good chance of Eklund going first. Buffalo is much less likely (I'd give it less than 25%), but I'm curious what the analytics say about Power, because as the number two guy, if Nightingale has reservations, they would have to at least seriously consider other options. And yes, in my opinion if the unlikely happened and Power were to slip, Eklund would be the most realistic option to go first overall. If he hadn't missed U18s and U20s I believe he would be the consensus number two by now.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

1 hour ago, DeNiro said:

Probably doesn’t mean much.

 

Its a forgone conclusion they’re gonna take one of those two. Likely just doing their due diligence on their third ranked player.

I get why you would assume Power is their top ranked guy, but why Beniers 2nd? Just personal opinion? Or are you going off internet/media scouts? Cusmost credible rankings, McKenzie, Button and NHLCS have Beniers ranked 4th, 5th and 6th (N.A.) respectively.

 

Say what you will about Button, I'm not a big fan personally, but he was an actual GM and scouting director in the NHL.

 

Also worth noting that Buffalo's recently promoted assistant director of amateur scouting was promoted to that position from director of analytics. And guess who is the darling of the analytics community in this year's draft? William Eklund.

 

Edit: I have a feeling this will end up turning into a whole thing about Button. I should have said the two most credible sources, plus another pretty credible source.

[[Proposal] My first proposal! The 2021-22 Aggressive offseason]

6 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

 

Bro…. Tampa has divisional rivals that will make better deals. Carolina and Florida dont have their backs up against the cap. Tampa is BEYOND the cap. They are in a weaker position. They ACTUALLY need help, they ACTUALLY NEED to make a deal. They actually HAVE to make a deal, not just one but multiple. Teams will see that as a weakness and Tampa will have their rubber arm twisted.

 

Carolina is under the cap. Carolina doesnt HAVE to do anything, its harder to take advantage of them in a trade.

Tampa’s tits are easy to milk. They actually HAVE to do something. Why pay a premium to a team that doesnt have much choice in the matter, they need to be cap compliant.

 

Carolina, Vegas, Colorado, Florida all have a better cap situation and are teams that want to win and can afford to pay the price. And move as valuable of players for the same price and add in picks or prospects to make sure teams take their deals over Tampa’s

 

Tampa has no 1st or 2nd round pick this year, they have no 4th as well.

Next draft they dont have a 2nd. Tampa cant afford to pay a ton to keep the dream alive WITHOUT paying the price of at least 1 of their valuable RFAs thats how they are going to make deals. Not everyone is going to take their 30 year old 5 mil players off their hands. Tampa needs to move about 15 mil in order to ice a bloody team next season. They need over 5 mil to be cap compliant and then they need to somehow sign Cal Foote this year who is an RFA, they have countless UFAs that are walking they have to somehow find a way to add some depth players to replace Coleman and Goodrow, Savard etc…… WITHOUT ANY CAP SPACE. Zero, nil, zilch. They have no space!! They paid a ransom for Goodrow and Coleman and they cant even afford to resign them lol!!! But it doesnt really matter to Tampa, because they are more than likely going to win a cup, so who cares if they lose them. Next season however is up ahead and now they need a new plan to get under the cap, dont have many draft picks this year and are well above the cap with more RFAs to deal with.
 

you dont understand trade leverage which is pretty sad. You’d pay full value or higher to a team that has no choice. 
 

once again… WHY would any team want to take on a 5 mil cap hit on an aging player in a flat cap. Especially when a team like Tampa is in a tough position. If they are going to make a deal to move Palat or Killorn or Johnson, they get a terrible return AND they are going to have to part ways with something of actual value to a team, either draft picks and or prospects. Tampa isnt moving out 5mil deals for peanuts and not adding anything in if they want help with their cap situation.. 

 

You dont pay more than you have to. Nobody has to pay Tampa anything extra. Tampa has to make multiple deals with a bunch of sweetners to get themselves under the cap and settled for the next few seasons if they want to keep allllll the good young core players. They WILL have to make sacrifices, its just the way the salary cap works. 

 

JUST like you said about teams that will help Tampa, whos going to have the better offer, Tampa, Carolina, Florida, NYI, Boston, Washington has rumours of Kuznetsov up for grabs. Kuznetsov>Palat, Killorn, Gourde, Johnson.

Calgary has rumours of Tkachuk wanting out, Eichel is unhappy, Tarasenko is rumoured, The big 3 in Toronto are in question, another failed year, another no-show from Marner and Matthews, who knows they might try to shake things up. Theres Taylor hall thats available as a UFA… and you think teams will be listening to what 30 year old declining player Tampa has to offer?? Lol they’ll check with Tampa later, when the dust settles with the bigger fish out there.

There are much better deals out there, Tampa will have to start paying the price to move cap out, if they wanna move there 5million dollar men, they are going to have to add and they arent going to get much in return and they actually cant afford to get anything in return, the fact that teams know they cant afford it, they will not be giving high picks or prospects away and they will demand one of the few good picks they have left in the next 2 years or they will demand a prospect. 
 

like how do you not see the position Tampa is in???? 

Alright, well I can see now that you're not even bothering to read my posts so there's no point replying. Lets just wait and see who's right and who's wrong.

[[Proposal] My first proposal! The 2021-22 Aggressive offseason]

33 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Okay the more I’ve thought about the Cernak offer, I’ll admit the worse it looks and Idk wtf was goin through my beer buzzed brain. Definitely not a good deal for Tampa and despite the fact I dont believe teams are going to do them any favours I can agree that I dont see him going for that cheap.

 

Tampa at some point this year or next year are going to have to decide on which RFA to move. Point needs a new deal in 2021, Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli need new deals in 2022

 

Tampa has 59,041,666 invested in Kucherov, Stamkos, Gourde, Johnson, Hedman, McDonagh, Vasilevskiy and Point all under contract for atleast the next 3 years. That doesnt include Points raise next season or Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak as of right now. They are nearly at 60mil without adding in their 3 big RFAs and in 2, seasons when they have all those big contracts locked up and Point gets his payday, they will have 3 more big paydays to hand out in a flat cap world with 60-63mil tied up in 8 guys. Something tells me Cernak, Sergachev and Cirelli’s will bring TBL close to 80 mil after those guys get their final RFA deals.

6-7.5mil per player.

 

Why would any GM want to take on a less valuable player and help the rich get richer? 
Yes Brisebois I’ll take a 31 year old Johnson off your hands for 5 mil for the next 3 years. We’ll gladly take a player heading into the decline and was placed on waivers several times in hopes someone would take him for free, we’ll pay you instead!!

 

Cap and contract issues are like blood in the water. A shark can smell blood from a million miles away. When teams sense that Tampa is in a crunch, they’ll come runnin with a smile, not their hands out for spare change. 
 

You always strive to get a higher value in a trade than what you are giving away. Especially when a team is in a predicament. They are not in a position of power to hold all the cards in their hand. They’ll settle on the trade that gives them closest to fair value.

 

Its not a stupid idea to believe that teams wont be willing to take any issues away from Tampa for cheap. They’ve won a cup and probably going to win a 2nd. Helping them is going to give them a chance to go for a 3rd in a row while most teams havent won a cup in the last 20 years. 
 

Every Team wants a cup, they wont keep holding their hats out for the spare change of a winning organization that plans to continue winning without expecting to lose a big piece once in awhile in order to keep the dream alive. Tampa cant have their cake and eat it too, its foolish of you to think that teams are going to run to their aid after winning year in and year out.. Oh Tampa tell us what you need us to do so you can win again! What can we do to help you???

Guess what just like there are plenty of teams that you say will help tampa, there are plenty of teams that will be willing to help teams like Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Vegas, teams that are close to winning and willing and able to pay a much better price than Tampa to help those teams. Tampa is not in a position of power, the teams around them are and the teams willing to do a deal with them set the price, Tampa either complies or finds them with a sh*ttier deal down the road. “Shucks we shoulda taken that first offer, now we had to move a good player out for a bag of pucks, because they moved on and took a deal from our divisional rivals.”

 

 

edit: Teams arent “missing” out on sh*t if such an asset rich team like Tampa isnt willing to part with a player that is going to be part of their future. If anything, Tampa is going to be the one missing out on getting the best deal possible if they want to hold out on the good.

Carolina and Florida will be very motivated to be better than Tampa after losing to them. You could hear it in Dougie Hamiltons speech, people are pi$$ed about the way Tampa got around the cap and had Kucherov for game 1 and is leading the playoffs in scoring. Those teams are bitter and will pay any team who wants to help them add to their roster a ransom. Whos got the better deal to give?? Tampa whos cap crunched or Carolina/Colorado/Florida who have their draft picks, other prospects and decent players and are willing to pay more than they have to in order to win the cup. Tampa’s done it twice, they arent going to pay a ton to try and do it again and they cant afford to pay their way with picks and prospects. They need cap space and teams know it, they arent going to take the cap they dont want, they are going to pressure them to move something of actual value out.

Oh boy. I barely know where to begin. I don't know where on earth you get this idea that teams are helping Tampa out. Quite the opposite, Tampa paid a king's ransom for Goodrow and Colman. You think any other team would give up a return like that for those players? Just as it works for acquiring players, it works the other way for moving out players: teams understand the situation Tampa is in. They are rich in assets but poor in cap. So you can "help" them with their cap situation in exchange for taking back excess asset value.

 

One argument you make is particularly abysmal: teams won't take anything away from Tampa cheap, therefor Tampa has to trade one of their more valuable assets. Such a weak inference. Why couldn't they just trade away some of those less valuable players at beneath market value?

 

This is exactly the reason Tampa is such a desirable trading partner. They have to give away good players for low value in return. Again, look at Colman and Goodrow and we're just talking about the other direction. When a team has a surplus of valuable assets, and a deficit of available cap, salary becomes the most valuable commodity to them.

 

But probably the craziest thing you said of all is that Tampa already won (or is about to have won) two Cups, therefor they aren't going to pay a ton to try to do it again. Are you completely insane? I'm not even going to justify this with a response. I can't believe I would have to argue the importance of winning Stanley Cups to NHL teams...

 

They're very probably not going to trade away any of their young core pieces Cirelli, Sergachev, Point, Cernak, etc. right now. Although if someone blew them away with an offer I guess you never know. Far, far more likely is they'll trade a couple of Palat, Johnson, Killorn, Gourde. If they were really desperate to move Johnson's contract, they could always package him with picks or prospects. But you seem to be forgetting they also have Gourde, Killorn, Palat. All still pretty darn valuable players with not unreasonable contracts (go look at comparables before you reply).

[[Proposal] My first proposal! The 2021-22 Aggressive offseason]

1 hour ago, knucklehead91 said:

But You aren't thinking about it from the rest of the league's POV. Tampa is more than likely going to win their 2nd cup.  They have a cap crisis and contract renewal problems in the next couple years. No one is going to step in and over pay for anything. What favours have they done for anyone else in the league the last 6-7 years? Moving Cernak now for 0 cap in return and exposing a 5mil player to the ED gets them nearly 3mil under the cap.

 

Tampa's POV is they have to figure out how to get cap creative and keep all the great young players while parting with the junk that they dont see as part of the future. Problem is...... They cant afford to keep everyone and they are going to lose a lot of those "Goodrows" and "Colemans" to free agency. No one will take a bad contract for them to continue winning. Other teams want their turn to win a cup or 2 in a row. 

 

Cernak has 2 years at 2.95 not one. Brayden Point is up for new ink next season, he'll be getting a 2 mil raise easily for his play. Now you have one guy getting a raise next season while your 3 RFAs are locked up, next season after that is the overlap of Points extension with Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachevs new contracts. Now how do you juggle that RFA situation AGAIN in the flat cap? They just played musical chairs in the off-season to get those 3 locked up on short term deals to go for a cup run. Teams are going to look at them and say "nope, not again Tampa, we aren't doing that for you again Brisebois, you've won 2 cups you can get lost"

 

Tampa will probably have to part with a very good player and it will come down to the highest bidder which will be the lowest underseller. Why overpay for a guy they need to move in a short time because their cap will be FUBAR. They paid a bunch for Coleman and Goodrow and now they are UFAs and TBL is 5mil over the cap and cant even re-sign them. Doesn't really matter because they won a cup, they aren't going to sacrifice anything to try and keep the UFA's they are letting them walk.

 

The league's POV is F U Tampa you won back to back cups and fooled around with the LTIR and Kucherov was 100% ready to play the moment he stepped on the ice, he clearly hasn't missed a step or had that hard of a time adjusting.

 

What team is going to benefit from taking TBL's scraps. "Here's a 29-32 year old 5mil+ guy locked up for the next few years, you can take him off our hands for nearly free." How is Tampa going to keep these contracts that are worth more than their weight in gold? Like they have to make moves and no one is going to want to take something they dont want or dont see in their own teams future plans. Why take Johnson, Palat, Gourde etc are all 29 turning 30-32 when you want Cernak or Cirelli, Kucherov or Hedman. Teams arent going to be entirely interested in the other 3. They want someone that is going to make an impact AND have a few more good years of hockey left in the tank, not the 5mil 30 year old guy whos ski's are straightening out as their career begins the downward trend

 

Palat has 1 year left at 5.3mil  - turned 30 this year

Johnson 3 more at 5mil - turning 31 this month

Gourde 4 years at 5.166mil -  turns 30 this year 

 

Look at Tampa's cap as it stands right now and their cap situations in the next few years

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

PROJECTED CAP HIT  : $86,566,666

PROJECTED LTIR USED  : $5,066,666

PROJECTED CAP SPACE  : $0 ($0 )

CURRENT CAP SPACE  : $0

TODAYS CAP HIT  : $86,566,666

ROSTER SIZE: 19

CONTRACTS: 33/50

RESERVE LIST: 49/90

 

 

 

FORWARDS (12 - $52,591,666)		TERMS	POS	STATUS	ACQUIRED	AGE	CAP%	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27
Kucherov, Nikita		NMC	RW	NHL	Draft	28	11.7	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000
Stamkos, Steven "C"		NMC	C, RW	NHL	Draft	31	10.4	$8,500,000	$8,500,000	$8,500,000
Point, Brayden			C, RW	NHL	Draft	25	8.3	$6,750,000	RFA
Palat, Ondrej		M-NTC	RW, LW	NHL	Draft	30	6.5	$5,300,000	UFA
Gourde, Yanni		NTC	C, LW, RW	NHL	Signed	29	6.3	$5,166,666	$5,166,666	$5,166,666	$5,166,666	UFA
Johnson, Tyler		M-NTC	RW, C	NHL	Signed	30	6.1	$5,000,000	$5,000,000	$5,000,000	UFA
Cirelli, Anthony			C	NHL	Draft	23	5.9	$4,800,000	$4,800,000	RFA
Killorn, Alex		M-NTC	LW	NHL	Draft	31	5.5	$4,450,000	$4,450,000	UFA
Maroon, Patrick		M-NTC	LW, RW	NHL	Signed	33	1.1	$900,000	UFA
Walcott, Daniel			LW, LD	NHL	Trade	27	0.9	$750,000	$750,000	UFA
Stephens, Mitchell			C	NHL	Draft	24	0.9	$737,500	RFA
Joseph, Mathieu			C, LW, RW	NHL	Draft	24	0.9	$737,500	RFA
Smith, Gemel			C	NHL	Signed	27		UFA
Goodrow, Barclay			LW	NHL	Trade	28		UFA
Coleman, Blake			LW, RW	NHL	Trade	29		UFA
Raddysh, Taylor			RW	NHL	Draft	23		RFA
Katchouk, Boris			LW	NHL	Draft	23		RFA
Colton, Ross			C	NHL	Draft	24		RFA
Barré-Boulet, Alex			C	NHL	Signed	24		RFA
TOTAL						27.0	64.5	$52,591,666	$38,166,666	$28,166,666	$14,666,666	$9,500,000	$9,500,000
DEFENSE (5 - $23,675,000)		TERMS	POS	STATUS	ACQUIRED	AGE	CAP%	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27
Hedman, Victor "A"		NMC	LD	NHL	Draft	30	9.7	$7,875,000	$7,875,000	$7,875,000	$7,875,000	UFA
McDonagh, Ryan "A"		NTC	LD	NHL	Trade	32	8.3	$6,750,000	$6,750,000	$6,750,000	$6,750,000	$6,750,000	UFA
Sergachev, Mikhail			LD/RD	NHL	Trade	23	5.9	$4,800,000	$4,800,000	RFA
Cernak, Erik			RD	NHL	Trade	24	3.6	$2,950,000	$2,950,000	RFA
Rutta, Jan			RD	NHL	Signed	30	1.6	$1,300,000	UFA
Claesson, Fredrik			LD	NHL	Trade	28		UFA
Savard, David			RD	NHL	Trade	30		UFA
Schenn, Luke			RD	NHL	Signed	31		UFA
Thomas, Ben			RD	NHL	Draft	25		UFA G6
Foote, Cal			RD	NHL	Draft	22		RFA
Borgman, Andreas			LD	NHL	Signed	26		UFA G6
TOTAL						27.4	29.0	$23,675,000	$22,375,000	$14,625,000	$14,625,000	$6,750,000
GOALIES (2 - $10,300,000)		TERMS	POS	STATUS	ACQUIRED	AGE	CAP%	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27
Vasilevskiy, Andrei		NMC	G	NHL	Draft	26	11.7	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000
Martin, Spencer			G	NHL	Signed	26	1.0	$800,000	UFA
Gibson, Christopher			G	NHL	Signed	28		UFA
McElhinney, Curtis			G	NHL	Signed	38		UFA
TOTAL						29.5	12.6	$10,300,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000	$9,500,000

 

 

They are 5 mil over the cap, have 19 players signed and need to shed cap like crazy to prepare for the upcoming RFA deals in a flat cap world. They are not in a position of power, they used up that power to win a cup and are on the way to their 2nd in back to back years.

 

 

 

 

Look at Pittsburgh after their 2 cup wins in back to back years. They gave up a lot to get Phil Kessel and then gave him away shortly after for next to nothing. Galchenyuk sucked and got moved quickly after that exchange. 

TRADE DETAILS
Jun 29, 2019	Arizona Coyotes Acquire: Phil Kessel · $6,800,000 Dane Birks · $0 (AHL/JR) 2021 4th round pick (PIT - #122) Sum: $6,800,000 Change: +$1,900,000																		Pittsburgh Penguins Acquire: Alex Galchenyuk · $4,900,000 Pierre-Olivier Joseph · $0 (AHL/JR) Sum: $4,900,000 Change: -$1,900,000
Jul 1, 2015	Pittsburgh Penguins Acquire: Phil Kessel ($1,200,000 retained - 15%) · $6,800,000 Tim Erixon · $600,000 Tyler Biggs · $0 (AHL/JR) 2016 conditional 2nd round pick* (PIT - #61 - Kasper Björkqvist) *Conditions: If Pittsburgh misses the 2016 playoffs, then Pittsburgh shall receive Toronto's 2017 2nd round pick. If Pittsburgh misses both the 2016 & 2017 playoffs, then Pittsburgh does not receive any pick from Toronto Result: Pittsburgh clinched 2016 playoff birth. Pittsburgh will receive Toronto's 2nd round pick (PIT) from Toronto. Sum: $7,400,000 Change: +$3,716,666																		Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire: Scott Harrington · $589,167 Nick Spaling · $2,200,000 Kasperi Kapanen · $894,167 2016 conditional 1st round pick* (PIT - #30 - Sam Steel) 2016 3rd round pick (NJD - #72 - James Greenway) *Conditions: If Pittsburgh misses the 2016 playoffs, then Toronto will receive Pittsburgh's 2017 1st round pick. If Pittsburgh misses both the 2016 & 2017 playoffs, then the 2017 1st round pick to Toronto becomes a 2017 2nd round pick Result: Pittsburgh clinched 2016 playoff birth. Toronto will receive Pittsburgh's 2016 1st round pick Sum: $3,683,334 Change: -$3,716,666

 

 

Why trade away Kessel after a 92 and 82 point season, over 300 points in a 4 year span for Alex Galchenyuk and some other dud.

2015-16	Pittsburgh Penguins	NHL	82	26	33	59	18	9	24	10	12	22	4
2016-17	Pittsburgh Penguins	NHL	82	23	47	70	20	3	25	8	15	23	2
2017-18	Pittsburgh Penguins	NHL	82	34	58	92	36	-4	12	1	8	9	2
2018-19	Pittsburgh Penguins	NHL	82	27	55	82	28	-19	4	1	1	2	2
2019-20	Arizona Coyotes	NHL	70	14	24	38	22	-21	9	1	3	4	4
2020-21	Arizona Coyotes	NHL	56	20	23	43	12	-17

 

Because they were not in a position of power, Kessel was rumoured to have attitude issues and no one was willing do them a solid favour after winning 2 cups, because every other team out there wants to win a cup. Thats a pretty lopsided trade. Where theres smoke, there's fire and no one is going to pay full price for players with attitude issues, players that want out of a city or a team that is running into cap/contract issues.

 

 

Why would anyone want to take on 5mil in cap in the flat cap, especially if there is term to go with the flat cap for the next few years.

 

Seth Jones wants out and its known, so I'd like to see another team pitch a couple 1st round picks one being a top 10 pick to acquire him along with a high end prospect to go with it. If Vancouver was to acquire him and be a competitive team next season, I don't see why Jones wouldn't want to re-sign with the core that we have coming up. We will begin to attract players, guys will be willing to waive their NMC's to come to an up and coming team. 

 

Anyways, it was all a fun alcohol inspired proposal. I dont think the value is too far off on some of the proposals. Looking back at the Reinhart proposal, it is a pretty lopsided deal, but if Juolevi can live up to his potential and Virtanen, with a fresh start in a new town with no distractions, can begin to get back on track, it could work out to be a really good deal for Buffalo. Of course this is all a bunch of what ifs...   

 

My dude. Come on. I appreciate that you've clearly put some thought and effort into this, but your arguments are razor thin at every turn. It is a very clear instance of a person making some claims and then refusing to let go and trying to grasp for any argument to explain their position. The worst of it is this idea that teams are going to spite Tampa Bay out of envy or revenge or some such nonsense. This is great in theory, but it doesn't work in real life. If every other country banded together to put sanctions against China, that would be great, but if only certain countries do it, China will just trade with the countries that don't and those countries will reap the rewards. Any NHL teams that refuse to play ball with an organization as asset-rich and cap-crucnhed as Tampa is just missing out.

 

Almost as bad, and along the same lines, is this idea that teams won't want  Palat, Killorn, Johnson or Gourde because Tampa has other players and those aren't the best options. Have you see Django Unchained? "We don't want the players you wanna trade, we want the players you don't wanna trade." Well if you've seen the movie you'd know that it was only Doctor Schultz' "ridiculous offer" that made Candy even consider selling the slave he don't wanna sell. OK, yes, this situation is different because Tampa needs to sell something. But do you really think no NHL team has any interest in Palat, Killorn, Johnson or Gourde whatsoever? Your explanation only makes sense when there are only two parties to the negotiation, but if you're the buyer, and you say "sorry Tampa, we only want Cernak, not Palat, Killorn, Johnson or Gourde." Whoops! Sorry, you just missed out. 30 other teams out there to negotiate with. And the fact that I was mistaken about the length of Cernak's contract, well, two years just makes Cernak even more valuable to them. This organization is still in position to win multiple Cups if they can play everything just right. If I'm Tampa and Vancouver offers the 9th overall pick for Cernak, I still wouldn't do it.

[[Proposal] My first proposal! The 2021-22 Aggressive offseason]

51 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

TBL can laugh all they want, TBL is in a financial jam and who is going to want to help them out after winning 2 cups? (assuming they win now)

5.6mil over the cap, only 19/23 players under contract, Brayden Point needs a  new contract next season. Then in 2023-24 Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachev need their big deals. They predict the cap will remain flat for the next 3-4 years... Where are they going to keep pulling cap space from?? They need to shed a ton of cap space and get well under the cap in order to keep their team together. Even if Seattle takes a 5mil player, they are 600k over and still need to resign 4-5 guys. Good luck TBL, no one is taking your deadweight after winning 2 cups. LTIR if it can be used like they did with Nilsson and Gaborik, can be very effective. TBL was able to keep all 3 of their RFAs while they were up against the cap, strictly from moving out a little bit of cap and taking back LTIR. 

 

Like this is all be a fabricated proposal and all, but lets think about the reality of the lack of help from around the  league TBL is going to get. They took advantage of the LTIR big time and they are on their way to a 2nd cup, no one is going to want to help them out one single bit. There is an opportunity to bend TBL over the barrel and take something good from them if they want to get under the cap and get their ducks in a row for the next few years. 2 years of Ferland on the LTIR allows them to be over the cap for 3.5mil for 2 years, they can use that LTIR to help mitigate  Brayden Points next contract

 

I'll admit the ARZ trade doesnt sound so fair after the beers have subsided. But I mean ARZ Gets a top 4 dman, maybe not the same calibre as OEL, but still a solid top 4. Their goaltending situation isnt great, DiPietro has a lot of potential and to get a bluechip goaltending prospect plus a high 3rd round pick which with the lack of knowledge about this draft around the league, that 3rd could very well be a 2nd round pick. 

 

Seth Jones i'd obviously expect him to be re-signed in this hypothetical-intoxicated proposal. I think its pretty fair value for a #1 RHD to get a top prospect dman in return, plus 2 1st's plus Kole Lind who could be a middle to bottom 6 player for them. LE needs to move to make the cap work.

 

 

IDK I had fun doin this last night

 

But you're not thinking of it at all from Tampa's point of view. Solid players on good contracts are worth more than their weight in gold to them. We saw what they were willing to give up in assets for Barclay Goodrow and Blake Colman. They only have one more year of Cernak on his current darling of a contract, and moving him now does practically nothing to relieve their cap woes. You just couldn't be more far off on your interpretation of the situation. For the next year Cernak is worth more to them than he is to any other team in the league.

 

And be realistic, nobody really cares about sticking it to Tampa Bay. Go ahead and try, some other team is going to be more than happy to work with them for both team's mutual benefit. Might be your division rival.

 

Oh sorry, actually the Arizona trade I didn't mind so much, it was the Reinhart deal that was more ridiculous. He's still RFA next summer, and you're giving up literally nothing of significant value.

 

And on Jones, if he's signed Columbus will do better than that, if not it's way too much risk.

[[Proposal] My first proposal! The 2021-22 Aggressive offseason]

15 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

Caution these trades may be disturbing to some viewers, viewer discretion is advised.

 

 

 

Alright, this is the first proposal I've done, just wanted to toss out a some crazy idea's and see what people think and if there is  fair value?

Trades are between VAN - TBL, FLA, CBJ, BUF

Just so you are aware... Im goin full Gillis, I aint leavin nothin in the cupboards.

 

Assuming Ferland's career is over....

 

First trade between VAN and TBL 

 

TO VAN
Cernak, Erik

 

TO TBL
Ferland, Micheal + 2021 5th round pick + 2022 2nd round pick

 

TBL is well over the cap and are in desperate need of space. Seeing how they LLLLOVE to abuse the LTIR, perhaps we could move Ferlands LTIR to TBL in exchange for Cernak. 

LTIR in the flat cap world holds so much value and comes at a premium. Because teams were expecting the cap to rise last year and the news broke in July that the cap would remain flat, teams are now in a bind. They either gave out contracts or need to resign players, but they do not have the space to do so, prior to the verdict of the salary cap.

 

Tampa needs cap space BIG TIME.. and the use of the LTIR would benefit them greatly, but its going to cost them. That is of course if in fact Ferland's career is over. Vancouver needs a RHD that is young and one that can grow with the core of this team. I doubt there are many teams that are going to want to help TBL out if they manage to win another cup. We could possibly toss them a little life raft in exchange for some help of our own.

 

Moving Cernak's 2.95m out and Ferlands 3.5m of LTIR in gives TBL makes a difference of $6,450,000 for TBL and their cap situation that move alone makes them cap compliant. They are $5,566,666 over the cap as of today and gives them just under 1mil of room. The draft picks are to hopefully close the deal to give TBL a shot at drafting another NHL player. 

Next season TBL is projected to have $11,458,334 of cap space, thats not including BP's hefty raise that will be coming next season along with a few other RFAs. Ferland's LTIR will help stabilize their cap situation next year and help handle BP's salary increase for the first year until they can get their cap situation sorted. Cernak does require protection, so they will have someone else exposed and lose them for nothing, Moving Cernak out for draft picks and cap stability is not an entire loss for nothing. There is financial gain and potential prospects.

 

TBL gets to keep Sergachev, Hedman and McDonagh, thats 3 of their top 4D. They just have to protect Kucherov, Stamkos, Cirelli, Point, Vasilevskiy and either Gourde, Killorn or Palat and they keep a large portion of their cup winning team together. 

 

 

 

 

TO VAN
Reinhart, Sam [RFA Rights] - Re-signed 6Mx4

 

 

 

TO BUF

Juolevi, Olli [RFA Rights]
Virtanen, Jake
2021 2nd round pick (VAN)
 

 

Virtanen needs a change of scenery and Juolevi needs to be given a chance. Perhaps in a new market, less distractions and perhaps more opportunity to provide offense, Virtanen will flourish. Juolevi should help tidy up the back end for BUF and provide a good zone exit passing ability. Two former top 10 first round picks and a high 2nd round pick should be fair value.

 

 

 

 

TO VAN
Ekman-Larsson, Oliver ($2,250,000 retained)

 

TO ARZ
Roussel, Antoine
DiPietro, Michael
Schmidt, Nate
2021 3rd round pick (VAN)

 

 3/4 pairing of OEL and Cernak, I feel like they would work very well together. We need to move cap however to make this work. 

In exchange, we take a top 4D and in return we give them a top 4D. OEL's contract is a bit steep for me, we'd need them to retain a portion to make it worth pitching a deal. We dump some cap for 1 year to make the deal work, they have plenty of room to take on a bit of cap for 1 season. In return they get a draft pick and a pretty high end goaltending prospect to help with their future.

 

OEL has been nominated for the Norris 5 times in his career, his stocks are down but he is still a very solid player and had the 2nd highest CORSI on D for ARZ. I feel like he would be an upgrade on Schmidt, he has a big body, moves the puck well and lays the body. If OEL manages to bounce back in a new environment, the great thing is he is locked up for awhile and at a good cap hit.

 

 

TO VAN
Jones, Seth

 

TO CBJ
Rathbone, Jack

Lind, Kole [RFA RIGHTS]

Eriksson, Loui

2021 1st round pick (VAN)
2022 1st round pick (VAN)

 

Now for the final piece on the back end. SETH... MUTHAF***IN... JONES

 

Rathbone has a high potential and CBJ isn't going to want to let a top dman go without a dman coming the other way, especially if the potential isn't there. Jones is leavin town wether they like it or not, they have lost bargaining power with it being publicly known that Jones wants out. Unfortunately we need to move cap once again to make this deal work. So Rathbone, Lind and our 9th OA and and next years 1st round pick, plus LE's cap dump for 1 season (bonuses paid) for Seth Jones. 

 

Re-sign Edler at 2 year 1.5m - Edler doesn't want to leave, but Edler isn't in a position to bargain, if he wants to stay and wants another shot at a cup, he needs to accept his fate as either a UFA or a cheap deal. Another short term deal with a very low cap. If he doesn't like it, he can move on down to Seattle as a UFA if he wants to remain close to the Vancouver area.

 

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Miller, J.T. $5,250,000 LW, C   UFA - 2	Pettersson, Elias $6,750,000 C   RFA	Boeser, Brock $5,875,000 RW   RFA - 1
Höglander, Nils $891,667 LW, RW   RFA - 2	Reinhart, Sam $6,000,000 C, RW   RFA	Podkolzin, Vasily $925,000 RW   RFA - 3
Pearson, Tanner $3,250,000 LW NTC UFA - 3	Horvat, Bo $5,500,000 C   UFA - 2	Lockwood, William $842,500 RW   RFA - 1
Motte, Tyler $1,225,000 LW, RW   UFA - 1	Beagle, Jay $3,000,000 C M-NTC UFA - 1	Highmore, Matthew $725,000 LW, RW   RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Hughes, Quinn $6,750,000 LD   RFA	Jones, Seth $5,400,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Demko, Thatcher $5,000,000 G   UFA - 5
Ekman-Larsson, Oliver $6,000,000 LD NMC UFA - 6	Cernak, Erik $2,950,000 RD   RFA - 2	Holtby, Braden $4,300,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Edler, Alexander $1,500,000 LD UFA	Myers, Tyler $6,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3

 

 

 

Final Cap $81,169,379

Draft picks - none for awhile 

 

 

Protected list

Pettersson, Boeser, Miller, Horvat, Reinhart, Jones, Cernak, OEL, Demko

 

Exposed

Myers, Holtby, Pearson, Gadjovich, MacEwan, Bowey, Motte, Beagle

- I doubt they take Myers, and they do need a starting goalie from 1/31 teams. IDK what other teams in the league will have a goalie with as many accomplishments as Holtby exposed. So I would think, for only 1 year, Holtby might be the best choice of the exposed players. If they take either one of Holtby, Pearson or Myers, we free cap space. If we lose Pearson, I'd be happy to replace him with Gadjovich or MacEwan and run with the kids. If we lose Myers, well we can start taking a look at Woo, Bowey, Rafferty, Chatfield, Sautner or Brisebois and give these guys either their first shot or a longer look than previous.

 

That would be one hell of a D group and 3 lines that can score. Would any of this be possible, would anyone make these trades to form this team and hope to win a cup?

Anyways I've spent too much time drinking and not sure how I'll feel about this in the morning. Looks and sounds good to me right now though

 

 

Lol, that's some wishful thingking my dude. Tampa and Arizona laugh in Benning's face. Not sure about Jarmo, but that's a lot of picks for one year of Seth Jones.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

27 minutes ago, Wolfgang Durst said:

Can't see any scenario in which Eklund falls outside the top 5.

 

 

If Anaheim trade it's 3oa pick to another team he will make it to 5  -  Kekalainen will pick him.

Buffalo's assistant director of scouting, Jason Nightingale was recently promoted from director of analytics...

 

Also, I'm keeping a close eye on Anders Forsberg. Bryan Murray was the GM in Detroit in the '90s, in the early days of the legend Hakan Andersson. When Murray took over as GM in Ottawa in 2007, Anders Forsberg was recommended to him by Andersson. and in the next four drafts they picked Erik Karlsson (traded up to ensure they got him on Forsberg's insistence), Jakob Silfverberg, Robin Lehner and Mika Zibanejad.

 

Forsberg then returned to Sweden for a couple years to pursue coaching and management, until Ottawa's AGM Tim Murray got the head GM job in Buffalo and brought in Forsberg. They picked Alex Nylander 8th overall, in part on Forsberg's recommendation. Nylander struggled with injuries from the get-go and never developed the way they planned. Forsberg was let go and returned to Sweden, and Nylander was eventually traded. Then Nylander had his first full NHL season with Chicago and showed he actually could be a very effective NHL player, and may have panned out if not for the injuries. Whoops! Forsberg was re-hired by Buffalo last summer.

 

I've just been completely in awe of this guy since the Karlsson pick, and I suspect Tim Murray felt the same way when he brought him over to Buffalo the first time. I dunno, is his reputation as looming as I believe it is? Can he be the deciding factor to bring Eklund to Buffalo over Power?

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

9 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

Thanks for the context. Normally I watch Scouch's stuff just for some of his statistical breakdown, rather than what his opinion is. I like to make my own opinions based on what I see, but its nice when the data can confirm or deny my own perceptions.

 

I think Will did a decent job of explaining that Cole has a great goal scoring knack, but he didn't mention anything about the teams themselves, just that his assist rate had dropped off significantly between Medicine Hat and Sioux Falls. That bit of info helps clear up some of the suspicions of playmaking deficiencies.

 

One interesting tidbit I picked up on today when comparing Johnson and Sillinger. In an interview with Johnson, he mentioned that he knows he lacks the speed to play as a driving winger down the boards, so he has shifted to driving off the boards into the middle in this year with Michigan. What caught more of my attention though, was he mentioned that he knows he needs to get quicker all around, and has been working with a power skating coach (Barb Aidelbaum who has worked with some Canuck players).

 

I love when guys can not only identify their weakness, but actually look to improve on it. I'm sure most of these young guys are actively working with skating and skills coaches and such, but its nice to hear from the horses mouth.

Yeah I didn't mean to be so critical of Scouch. I watched a few of his videos last year and no doubt there is value to be taken from them. I'll probably watch a couple of his videos for players I have trouble finding much footage on, namely Scott Morrow and Ville Koivunen.

 

But one other thing with Sillinger I'm having trouble rectifying is, in the Dobber video package, they highlight some really disinterested play from Sillinger in his own zone. Looking back at my original notes from U17s, I was raving about his 200-foot hockey sense - anticipation, timing, tracking the puck - but interestingly, no mention of anything like defensive commitment or effort level. That said, he and Liam Arnsby was the team's top forward unit on the PK, and they had a number of three on fives, and even one where a time out was called: every time they came out with one defenseman (I believe it was always Lambos) along with the two forwards, Arnsby and Sillinger.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

25 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

I'm not sure McTavish is a stud center.  

 

I see a guy who is clever, makes plays. Understands where to be, effective & executes when he gets there. All the simple skills, a quick pass, excellent shot.  Works hard. Feisty, backchecks, competes.  All comendable. Very much so! Has size, also positive...

 

What I dont see is blazing speed, elite skills. A better athlete than others in his draft bracket. A guy who can handle the puck under pressure, zone entries, exits, dangles, sauce passes, creativity... I do see some projecting him as a top line player? 

 

My thought is without great speed, he would have to be the plugger who can score goals. Holds the cycle, he is big, creates physical mismatches. Crashes the net. At wing, who plays with other guys who have speed and skill.  

 

Am I underrating Mac?

 

Honest question... 

 

 

I'd never been able to come up with a good comparison for McTavish, but I saw someone somewhere compared him to Jeff Carter. That one really struck me as spot on, not sure how I hadn't though of it. I don't see elite puck skills, but I do see really high-end playmaking ability. I dunno if creativity is the right word, but he can find things and execute in tight spaces. I'm a bit stuck in the middle on him, as I don't expect him to be a superstar in the regular season, but with his brick $&!#house of a frame combined with that ability to make plays with limited time and space down low, he's the kind of player every team is wishing for come playoff time when things tighten up. Hard to say exactly what that's worth compared to the upside of a guy like Johnson or Hughes.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

4 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

Just watched Scouch's new video on Sillinger. Kinda turned me off to him honestly, though I was never super into him in the first place. The video gives me a lot of Virtanen vibes from his draft year.

 

Interestingly, both Johnson and Sillinger are somewhat labeled as trying to do too much themselves, but I have a lot more confidence in Johnson with our pick. He seems to use a lot more vision on ice than Sillinger.

I never usually watch these things, but given how drastically my evaluation of this player differs from the consensus, there's clearly something going on, so I decided to give it a try. Unfortunately, I just couldn't finish. I got about a quarter or third of the way through, so my apologies if Scouching already addressed some of my points in his video. As Isam pointed out, it's a pretty limited sample set, but not the number of viewings - 7 games is a decent sample. It's not a matter of picking the wrong viewings but of isolating one specific situation. I'll be the first to admit, my viewings on Sillinger were fairly limited - 4 from U17s, 1 from Medicine Hat, 1 from Sioux Falls, but altogether I think they paint a vivid picture.

 

To explain what I think is going on, first I need to look back at another time last year where my evaluation differed drastically from the consensus: Shakir Mukhamadullin, who I had some 15-20 viewings on between 2019 U18s, Hlinkas, WJAC, 5NU18s, KHL and eventually MHL. I knew him as arguably the best defensive defenseman in the draft. I never saw all that much offensive upside from him, as he was a guy who was always just looking to separate puck from body and quickly move puck out of danger. Far more likely to exit the zone off the glass or flip into an area than skate or pass it out under control. So I had him as one of the safest picks in the draft to be at least an 18-21 minute defenseman, even without a lot of upside, and to me that was enough to rank 17th overall. But then I kept seeing comments about how reckless he was with the puck, trying to do too much, projects as a puck-moving D, and I was bewildered. Until I saw him in MHL. When playing for Russia, especially at U18s and WJAC where he was underaged, he was committed to a particular role to help his team win championships (which they did) - pure stay-at-home shutdown defenseman. But in MHL, as easily the best defenseman on his team, it was like watching a completely different player, rushing the puck, constantly getting involved deep in the offensive zone. So yes, all this to say, a complete picture is crucial.

 

I wanted to scream at my laptop when I was watching that Scouching video, Sioux Falls was the second worst team in USHL, and one of the lowest scoring, despite Sillinger's 24 goals in 31 games. Despite missing the first ~20 games of the season, he finished 7 goals ahead of his closet teammate (and .336 g/g difference) and 9 points ahead of his next closest teammate (.395 p/g different). Before I saw him in USHL or realized how bad his team was, when I first started hearing this talk that Sillinger is a player who does too much by himself, I was flabbergasted. In U17s he was the furthest possible thing, he practically spent all of his offensive zone time just anchored to the goalie's crease. I swear to you there was times where he was used on a line with Matthew Savoie and his sole task was to hang back, stay above Savoie and support the puck (the underaged Savoie does have a penchance for trying to attack defenders with a little too much confidence).

 

If there is one thing I've been saying about Sillinger since U17s it is that he's a swiss army knife - that if he pans out the way I think he will, in the NHL he'll be a perfect soldier and be willing and happy to play any role from 1LW to 3C, PK, and practically any position on the PP (halfwall, netfront, bumper). So yeah, as bizarre as it seemed to me when I first heard about Sillinger trying to do too much, with proper context it makes perfect sense. Canada White was loaded with talent and just needed him parked in front of the net. Sioux Falls was drastically in need of an offensive difference-maker, so Sillinger played the part to the best of his abilities. He's not a particularly high-end playmaker - and this is something I've never had any illusions about - so for him that means attacking the inside and scoring goals: to the tune of the 2nd highest g/g by a non-NTDP U18 in the past decade, only behind Bobby Brink, and ahead of Kyle Connor, Johnny Gaudreau, Brock Boeser; all with an absolute impoverishment of offensive support.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

6 minutes ago, nzan said:

Northern BC? Whereabouts?

Lol, that's what you wanna talk about?! There's so many interesting points to debate about rebuild strategies!

 

Little coal-mining town called Tumbler Ridge.

[2021 NHL Entry Draft]

22 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Today, if you look around the league, there are a few teams that are rebuilding the right way

 

Colorado.................a long methodical and precise rebuild

Carolina..................a focused and methodical rebuild

Edmonton...............a team that got lucky, still could not win and finally started a proper rebuild of their prospects and defense

NYR........................Lucky, but methodical...........take a look at their RHD

N Jersey.................early stages, a little scattered, but going in the right direction

LA........................... their collection of young talent is awesome....very young

Anaheim..................just starting, but appears methodical

 

The collection of high draft picks is not only to add to your team, but also to be used as currency. Even Benning showed why this works with Taffoli, and on the reverse side, LA did this as well in the same deal.

 

There is no doubt that Taffoli was a fan favorite in LA, but LA moved him because it was best for the franchise, It did several things, when the trade happened, first it brought in instant asset in the form of Madden and the 2nd, but it also weakened LA, which allowed them to drop in the standings. Colorado did this as well back when they moved Duchene, as well. The return asset, helped them rebuild quicker.

 

There is no doubt there are different ways to rebuild, but successful ones, liquidate and drop, then rebuild, with good drafting and good trades. I do not appreciate being called a loser, because I see it this way. Especially when, there are NHL models out there, that show exactly that.

 

I respond to this because, the truth is, that if some veterans had been moved earlier, we would have more assets to work with now, and it was Benning's lack of imagination and his POV, that prevented that. And no, I do not believe the few wins  that we got, that we would not, built character, that is a fools POV. 

 

IMO, if we had that extra asset that would have been recovered, we would have been in a much better position, to A) go out and do a hockey trade for a young defenseman

B ) might already have one, or C) would have dropped low enough to make that pick ourselves.

 

Yes, there are always examples of teams that do it and do not succeed (early Edmonton and Toronto), but in those cases, it had more to do with scouting staff, not identifying the proper draft targets.

 

It is not to have a team of all young prospects floundering around, but a cohesive plan that allows for transition and movement of assets, where a GM take asset and acquires needed pieces as required, but coming out of the rebuild too early causes the rebuild to stall, and impatient teams stall never getting to the top.

 

The word "Tank" is a word used by ignorant hockey fans that do not know the history of hockey, nor how dynasties were done. They are never done with just, draft picks, but rather a GM that makes shrewd trades, when the time is right, to supplement those young picks (aka Stars)........"Supplement" !

 

Now, the reason I am going off, is simple. Far too often people use the Tank to take jabs at other, but are never ones to take the stand, and say how they would do it. Nor will they ever admit that it is done in the NHL...........not by players, and not by coaches, but by GM's who play chess, not checkers

 

So, to get on point here............the Canucks are short assets to really have a long stay at the top, and need to acquire players that will impact the team.  They need a #1/#2 RHD, and a 3rd line Center who can play up. They need depth, and until they get that, they may climb up to a top 12 team, but they won't go further>>>>IMO.

 

So, however Benning does it, it is too late to look back and use what ifs, that is gone. We need to clear cap for "IMPACT" UFA's and to resign assets over the next 2 years. And IMO, the year we could use the Strategic Tank, are gone, so don't bring it up any more, not to jab at others, nor say it is not used.

 

As I have said many times, players play in the moment, coaches coach for the season, and GM's should be GMing in the long haul. Those that don't usually don't last.

 

17 hours ago, Canuck Surfer said:

Its funny how many on CDC who advocate rebuilding also loved acquiring Tofolli. And criticize letting him go. 

 

It is pretty obvious that JB has never been a rebuilder.  Whether that is his own mandate, or the owners, is debatable? That we have not been sellers often undeniable. FTR I would have been an advocate for selling 2, 4 & even 6 years ago.  Right now, at this minute sell?

 

This year I think we just let Podkolzin, with some luck Lind, Rathbone arrive. Ask for growth from Hogz / Petey / Quinn. Find a RHD and tinker with the bottom 6.  Next summer we will have all kinds of flexibility to add key pieces to the roster.

 

I dont really want to talk about selling.  The time to move Schmidt, for example, if there was one would be next deadline. And it will still be unlikely Benning will have any mandate, or impetus to sell.  

 

 

Who do you like with our 2knd; will Scott Morrow be there?

 

You've got it Surfer. Just for a little context, I grew up a Canucks fan in northern BC, but since I moved to another province in my early teens, somehow became a diehard Sens fan and have only followed Canucks peripherally until I moved to the Island last year just in time for the playoff run. But the point is, even as someone who wasn't watching all that closely, it was abundantly clear from very early on what the plan under the Benning administration would be: a slow, meticulous rebuild. Theseus' ship replaced one board at a time, and nothing like a rip-off-the-bandaid, scorched earth approach the Sens would soon take.

 

I guess the crucial point I want to emphasize is, rebuilding isn't something teams want or even need to do, it is something that just happens. It is the natural cycle of the reverse-standings draft system, consolidated by the salary cap. Of course every team has to have a strategy for how to handle it when it comes, and can either try to get in front of it and speed it along or can try to delay and drag it out. There are many different ways to go about it each with a myriad various implications. I have my own opinions, but every team's situation is very different and of course there isn't one thing that works for situation. One thing I think it is important to recognize Jan, is that there are at least two separate phases of rebuilding: the tear-down and then the rebuild. What you seem to advocate for a quick, drastic tear-down, but then a slow-meticulous rebuild. But what the Canucks have been doing under Benning has been slow and meticulous through both phases. I would tend to, on average (again, it depends on every team's situation) advocate for a slow, meticulous tear-down, and then a quick rebuild.

 

But the only team that really won a Cup in the past decade with my style would be the L.A. Kings. The benefit to this method is that, provided you draft well through the early phase (as L.A. did indeed) then by the time you get to the really lean years and high picks, you already have a core of prospects almost ready to go (Dustin Brown, Kopitar, Quick), and then you make some high picks and with a few shrewd trades and signings, it is a relatively painless process that is conducive to a winning atmosphere. I mean this is the dream scenario for fans, owners and players alike, but the key is that the drafting in that early phase is absolutely crucial, and L.A. nailed it.

 

Pittsburgh went scorched earth on the descent and blazing phoenix on the ascent. They have three Cups to show for it, but they also got incredibly lucky at the draft, and their fans suffered through some really rough years. It is hard to say what Chicago did, as they simply just failed on their initial rebuild attempt and had to start over, thus essentially drawing out the tear-down phase for the better part of a decade, similar to what happened to Edmonton recently. Can Edmonton be the next Chicago? Hopefully, I like the Oilers, but both fanbases suffered through hell to get there. Washington was a quick, rip-off-the-bandaid tear down followed by a pretty quick rebuild to being competitive (ok, maybe this is the dream scenario, but good luck with that unless you get Alex Ovechkin), but then it was still a long, windy road to actually winning the Cup.

 

St. Louis' tear-down was punctuated by the 2005 lockout year, but they went the long, slow road in both directions. St. Louis is the closest path to have won a Cup lately to the one the Canucks have been on. They actually did try to be quite aggressive on the ascent, trading first rounders for Bouwmeester, Shattenkirk, but unfortunately,it still wasn't enough, and they ended up having to (or deciding to) trade heart-and-soul captain David Backes and fan-favorite T.J. Oshie during their retooling in 2016. The Canucks still have a few years to go before they get to the point of trading Horvat, but at least we have a decent model to look at in St. Louis. Canucks are about where the Blues were around 2011 or 2012 - most of the drafted core in the lineup and taking the reigns from the veterans. Similarly, the Canucks will have about a five year window with Horvat and Demko. But St. Louis also shows us that you don't need to win in that window, but if not, you'll likely want to move those guys out to make cap space for the next wave.