goblix
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Posts posted by goblix
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I would say take a chance at him but he's been injured the last 2 years and played less than 30 games in those seasons and at 33 years old I'd be afraid this is a trend due to his age rather than circumstance.
Either way we have Edler and Tanev on the roster still so with their health uncertainty we would be better suited in targeting someone like Jordie Benn even if it is for longer term and higher cap hit.
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5 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:
but they still need C depth.... I wonder if they have a line on Marcus Johansson too?
Canucks trade JT Miller for Barrie
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20 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:
Makes me wonder what Benning has up his sleeves to compete with Sakic and the other western GMs making big moves to improve. The Avs are setting up to build a dynasty.
Landeskog
Rantanen
McKinnon
Jost
Newhook
Kaut
Barrie
Byram
Makar
Helleson
etc. Ridiculous.
I'm just impatient when I see other GMs making moves. Meanwhile, we're all waiting to see what Hutton and Schenn do, like it matters. I beleive Benning will sign 1-2 UFA Dmen, but I'm not very confident he'll be able to trade away Sutter, Eriksson and others that need to go. He'll spin it like: "We want good competition at camp for the young guys. Roster spots will need to be earned, blah blah".
you forgot Kerfoot and Girard
but Jost has been pretty supbar in his career so far, 2 seasons 20-30 points. Not saying he's a bust or can't improve but more so saying that some of these guys won't live up to their hype / expectations or at the very least will take longer than the expected timeline.
Barrie also seems to be leaving next year so not sure i'd say he's part of the dynasty.
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Just now, HKSR said:
Rantanen, Compher, Kerfoot, Wilson, Zadorov, Varlamov are all gonna get significant raises from their previous contracts. Once the dust settles, the Avs will probably have <10M in cap space.
they wont sign Varlamov for sure. Grubauer was their #1 in the playoffs. They'll likely find a cost-effective decent backup in free agency
Really Rantanen and Kerfoot is their only player that will hit a decent or big contract. Compher / Wilson are around 30 point players. Zadorov prob maxes out at 4m.
They are moving cap out for some big names in UFA, offer sheet or trade market
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Don't really like the trade for Colorado due to their lack of scoring all of their lines other than their top line... He had 50 points this year on his final year, was 5th in team scoring and not that much cost but they are likely dumping a contract because they are going to pay Rantenen and likely gonna toss out some big contracts.
Not sure what big name is out there that they will be able to get but I could see Gardiner as one target and maybe Anders Lee as I don't think Panarin wants to goto a city like Colorado.
Anyone know if they qualified their 2 RFA dmen Zadorov or Graves? (the RFA deadline ends at 5pm EST today)
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1 minute ago, 18W-40C-6W said:
So we're fine. I think Baer will be moved this year. They will most certainly protect Jake, or he'll be traded. He has too much potential to be left exposed. Pearson is probably the other guy depending on how he plays. Leivo is too much of a tweener, McEwan is too much of an unknown as are the others
Pretty much but in 2 seasons there's many things that can change with those tweeners and prospects.
Like Lind could become a stud and maybe Miller less than spectacular and we can risk the exposure and return the cap space with his contract.
Plus no clue on who we potentially add going forward. Lots of variables
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48 minutes ago, DeltaSwede said:
Alright, I'll admit it, I'm being lazy now but looking through 130 pages to find what I'm looking for is a bit rich for me right now.
Anyone got a good idea on how this impacts the Canucks heading into the expansion draft?
Regarding the trade itself, i winged when the details first came out about the conditional first, but I'm starting to warm up to the idea of this trade and actually think it's ok. It's ok IF the Canucks make the playoffs in 2021 or even next year. It's certainly a gamble but sometimes you need to take a gamble to be successful.
I think in general if you don't have an exposed forward leading towards the expansion draft that stings to lose then you are not a good team at all.
https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft/seattle
the tool assumes we have what we have now under contract so really some of the names likely not in there and potentially may add a few more.
I believe the picks from 2018+ are exempt from the draft in no matter what happens (barring rule change).
you can protect:
7F / 3D / 1G
so the easy choices
F - Horvat, Pettersson, Boeser
D - Stecher
G - Demko
Most likely will protect:
F - Gaudette, Miller
D - Juolevi
Based on what we know and what we have now and how we think these guys will go ahead trajectory-wise the rest really depends on how they progress.
The unprotected notables:
Baertschi, Pearson, Virtanen, Lind, Jasek, MacEwen, Leivo, Hutton, (any other additions)
so really we have 2 flex forward spots and a flex defense spot to protect someone worthwhile.
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5 hours ago, riffraff said:
I’m not suggesting it like it’s some crucial piece or signing.
im saying if he can be had for cheap he would be a good fit over the course of the season for specific matchups during the regular season to provide the “safe environment” Jim spoke about.
and imo I’ll take a Ryan reaves that can play 9 minutes per game in the post season doing what he does and only a -1, (just to lend some legitimacy to +/- for the sake of your point)
edit
ill assume from your post you only looked at the stat lines and didn’t actually watch the playoff games both years.
Actually I did watch the SJS series and most of VGK series last years playoffs.... I don't think I saw too much, perhaps he hit a few guys and I think in 10 playoff games from 2017-18 playoffs he scored 2 goals which is nice... But anyways like you said he's not really a crucial piece or anything.
But look at the insane amount of bottom 6 forwards we have....
Virtanen / Leivo / Beagle / Roussel / Gaudette -- who are all probably worthwhile keeping around in the bottom 6
Sutter, Spooner, Erickson, Schaller -- if we can't find a way to buyout // move out these guys then it's hard to scratch all of these players.
fringe RFAs like Motte, Granlund -- which I'm probably fine with walking away from these guys
RFA Perron (new guy) whom is waiver eligible so he's likely going to be a 12/13 guy this season
RFA Goldobin -- maybe it's time to walk away, but its believed possible to bring him back 1 more time for a show me or get out.
Zach MacEwen who seems like a potential Reaves that probably is better
Baertschi -- hovering in that top 6 // top 9 area.
My point is that this is all a garbled mess in that forward group I don't really find the allure in adding more into that group until at the very least all of the excess has been dealt with... and there is a lot to deal with that will likely take more than this year to clean up unless if you want to just walk away from most of the RFAs and spend assets // taking less in dumping out some of these onerous contracts.
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3 hours ago, Lionized27 said:
Comparing Gudbranson to Reeves is laughable. One is a legitimate heavyweight, the other, well, isn't.
Reeves is a proven deterrent. Gudbranson proved he was not.
Guddy was brought in as a player who could play and stand up for team mates. So yeah he doesn’t compare in a sense he was never a 4th line heavyweight enforcer but he was touted to be a deterrent and was a player proven to stand up to teammates in Florida
the fact that he proved he was not or did not do validates the danger in taking a player who likely can’t play very well or be a legit contributor to a roster.
id rather have big players like virtanen, leivo and macEwen in the lineup
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12 minutes ago, Lionized27 said:
Do you remember teams taking liberties with any of the Vegas stars?
Reeves is why you don't.
Pettersson and co. would be free to play their game without fear of being body slammed with a guy like Reeves in the lineup.
We had Guddy whom had that same mantra to him. Turns out it didn't matter lol.
We do have more size with TJ Miller and Pearson in top 6 roles now and Luke Schenn if he resigns, I know these guys aren't the same bruiser that Reaves is but they are at least chippy or have some size to avoid being pushed around.
11 minutes ago, riffraff said:People underrate his playoff impact.
He had 7 games, 0 points avg 9 minutes of TOI a game and was a -1. His previous post-season stats are similar.
Look I understand you two like Reaves because of the intangibles and I'm not opposed into adding him because I do see the use of it.
But really our team if overfilled with bottom 6 forwards and even prospects projected to bottom 6 and most of them would be tough to move off of. Like nobody is going after Erickson, Spooner, Schaller, Beagle and we've heard the reports of Sutter it's really unknown..
Reaves would not be my main target if you can get a 2020 first or Miller and Reaves then sure. Otherwise I'd focus on things more worthwhile
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1 minute ago, YearoftheNuck said:
The only problem with that though is that there’s no guarantee that either of those players even make it to free agency. Even if it currently looks unlikely that they’re going to re-sign with their current clubs, they could always get traded before then and sign with their new club.
This is true. I wonder if we get Myers if we can have enough space for Barrie next year and if we could try to lean Seattle in taking Myers in the expansion draft in 2021 before we have to sign Pettersson and Hughes.
Let's say we get Myers this year and Barrie next year the protected dmen would likely be:
Stecher / Barrie / Juoleviexposing just Myers, Hutton and the rest of the field in players like Biega / Brisebois and Sautner
Forward wise could get a little iffy though and they may rather go for a young forward but Seattle will need to get to a bottom limit, Myers will have term at that time so taking 6-7m in a player might allow them to pick younger cheaper assets elsewhere.
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4 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:
We’ll take Ryan Reaves off your hands there, McPhee.
Why do people want a 32 year old 10-20 point guy that makes 2.25m for 1 year ?
I understand he's a bully and a bruiser and perhaps we need more sandpaper... but really if I'm going to try to fleece a player from VGK Reaves is last on my list.
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12 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:
It's not a full add though. The $17mil is for 22 contracts, so we are only net adding a defenceman contract whether CMiller or Hutton or otherwise. Boeser would replace one of those forwards already in the 22, likely Spooner, which makes the cap addition in the range of $4mil. Even with LE on the roster we can fit all of them.
Well honestly don't think anyone is going to take Spooner in this type of cap world. A buyout is likely in order which would have a cap hit of 1m x 2 years which imo is worthwhile.
and I think we could get some takers on Sutter (retain 1m?) and Tanev if we put some condition on the pick return. like a 2nd turns to a 3rd if he isn't eligible to play games for more than 70 games or something.
So there are some laid out options to free up space for Clarkson and Miller if we do go that route.
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14 minutes ago, Pizza said:
Yes I can totally use MacKinnon to make a prediction on Boeser's next contract. Nathan just had 52 and 38 points the 2 seasons prior to signing his deal. Very similar numbers to Boeser now. The cap was also 7 million less at the time so taking that into account, it can't be more than 9-10% of the cap.
Fair fair, he did have 63 point season in his first year so had a 3 year sample size to go off of. Either way I like your points it is very similar to the Boeser camp and I do agree either way 7mx6 seems about right to me
I am curious though in how much things have changes throughout the years. McDavid / Matthews / Eichel / Draisaitl all got paid in out of their ELC it looks like Marner / Aho / Laine / Tkachuk / Connor all looking at some big paydays. Times have definitely changed from even 3-4 years where bridges are less of a thing and players are getting paid for what they are projected to do in addition to what they have done.
I know Boeser doesn't compare to a lot of those players (especially the first 3) but it's just a trend seems to be happening. I wouldn't be overly surprised if Boeser pushes for around 8m and for that reason
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1 minute ago, Pizza said:99 point player Nathan Mackinnon makes $6.3M so I don't expect Boeser's contract to be more than $7M.
I'd be super pump if Boeser gets 6Mx8 or 6Mx6.
You can't use MacKinnon as any kind of comparable lol. Everyone knows he's a bargain and that contract is nutso value. It's like saying well Erickson makes 6m so don't expect Boeser to sign for any less than 15m
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1 hour ago, higgyfan said:
Nice job, Goblix
There are rumours going around that Hutton's camp is looking around the +4m range, which is ridiculous. Probabley settle around 3.5m like you have suggested. I see Juolevi filling Hutton's role by next season, so Ben's contract shouldn't have too much term. Another option would be to go with Jordie Benn (+1.5m x 2yrs), who would be a very stable bottom 6 guy at little expense. BC boy with some size. In his 2nd year, Juolevi takes his job and Benn becomes the #7 guy. Tryamkin may be coming over when his contract is done as well.
Still not thrilled about signing Meyers; mostly due to the probable long term and possible restrictive contract. Although it appears that the team has done a good job of staggering the current contracts, they would also provide room for re-upping Millers contract.
Edler Miller
Hughes Meyers
Benn Stecher
Biega Rafferty
Yeah I’m not ecstatic for Myers either just figured it’s a strong possibility so let’s try to jam him in lol.
you’re probably right about Hutton my initial thought was 4x4 but yeah I do like the idea of Benn instead.
my only problem is having an RFA with arb rights and so many teams have cap issues I’m curious if his value would be greater next year when teams have more cap capitol and Hutton’s cap and term is a known quantity.
but eh all of this really changes because of Erickson that 6m could really change a lot this year or next year in either taking a clarkson contract easier or with signing a player like Barrie in UFA next year
The next week is definitely going to be interesting
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10 minutes ago, mll said:
There's also the performance bonuses of both Hughes and Pettersson to be factored in. Each can earn up to an additional 2.7M on top of their base salary and it counts against the cap.
I believe in seeing as these bonuses get paid throughout the year that any cap overages the team accrues gets bitten into the next season. Still a problem but perhaps gives a bit more flexibility for the current season.
Either way Panarin is going to get paid like a bandit.. like 10m at the least so I'm doubtful in signing after the JT Miller trade, Canucks will probably still meet with Panarin though.
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2 hours ago, Virtanen#18 said:
OK... let's say you're right... Miller got the skill set to be our #1 RD over Myers... do we still have cap room to accommodate JT Miller, Colin Miller, Clakskn, Boeser's new big contract, another good D-man via free agency?
We'll have the same problem like Tampa/Vegas desperately trying to dump Sutter and Eriksson. No?
I was actually playing around with this type of thing. Assuming the Cap is 81.5m this year:
Canucks have 17.7m in cap space.
Boeser (7-8m), Clarkson (5.25m) and Miller (3.875m)
with those contracts the total becomes to 2m in cap space left with a 22 man roster. Of Course thats 6 dmen, 2 goalies and 1 bazillion forwards but it does fit lol.
From there we can do a few more things:
Buyout Spooner which saves 2m in cap this year (but costs 2m next year). Freeing 2 more million would likely allow us to resign a player like Hutton for 3.5m.
find a trade for Sutter, even if we retain 1-1.5m we free up around 2-3m in cap which is a decent amount to sign some of the fillers like a Goldobin, Leivo, or Schenn
If we find a trade for tanev perhaps we can use that 4.45m in space to sign a Myers for maybe 6-7m. Roster could get interesting.
Cap friendly jot down of the roster.
Quotehttps://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1249205
CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster
FORWARDS (13)
Right wing: Brock Boeser ($8,000,000) - Jake Virtanen ($1,250,000) - Antoine Roussel ($3,000,000) - Loui Eriksson ($6,000,000) - Tyler Motte ($1,000,000)
Centre: Elias Pettersson ($925,000) - Bo Horvat ($5,500,000) - Adam Gaudette ($916,666) - Jay Beagle ($3,000,000)
Left wing: J.T. Miller ($5,250,000) - Tanner Pearson ($3,750,000) - Sven Baertschi ($3,366,666) - Nikolay Goldobin ($1,250,000)DEFENSE (7)
Right: Colin Miller ($3,875,000) - Tyler Myers ($7,000,000) - Troy Stecher ($2,325,000) - Alex Biega ($825,000)
Left: Alexander Edler ($6,000,000) - Quintin Hughes ($916,666) - Ben Hutton ($3,500,000)GOALTENDER (2)
Jacob Markström ($3,666,667) - Thatcher Demko ($1,050,000)AHL BURIED (1)
Tim Schaller ($825,000)
BUYOUTS (1)
Ryan Spooner ($1,033,333)RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (2)
Brandon Sutter ($1,000,000) - Roberto Luongo ($800,000)DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Cap Hit: $81,274,998
Cap Space: $225,002The idea on a Sutter and Tanev trades would be to put a condition based on games played or perhaps stipulation if resigns type of thing. Thinking Trotz in NYI would love a Sutter and they have cap to spend. NJD got PK and are looking pretty decent with Hughes / Hall / Butcher / Subban / Hischier so thinking they may like a Tanev to perhaps help the defensive minutes around Subban.
A big thing to also note is that 225k in free space is scary but with Clarkson moving to LTIR that frees up the 5m for flexibility throughout the season and that 5m also clears out next year.
Also if Ottawa is looking for cap floor help maybe that 6m for Erickson can be shipped out for a 3rd round pick in consideration that we are getting potential 2nds or 3rds with the conditional Sutter and Tanev trades.
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5 minutes ago, Specz said:
??? What? Half the things you just mentioned are not even facts they're assumptions.
1) There were talks about bringing Podkolzin a year sooner by buying out his last contract year in the KHL
2) How are you so sure about Hoglander's development? We JUST drafted these 2 guys and you already have their entire NHL trajectory planned out?
3) So your plan is to just assume that they WON'T perform and assume for the worst and not worry about cap space at all? If that's the case let's just spend to the cap NOW. Surely Demko won't be good, Juolevi will never amount to anything, Woo won't come in anytime later season and impress.
4) People said cap was going to go up THIS YEAR. But here we are and news is that Cap is probably not going up by much at all. Nowhere near what it was estimated to be. You don't even know this as a fact. "it's silly to think that this 5.5m hampers any contract re-signings" Do you think it's silly for the Oilers to think Lucic's 6m contract is hampering their cap? The truth is, every contract counts when you are spending close to the cap like the Canucks will.
5) And the final nail in the coffin... you said that there was "so much wrong" in my post, yet you have given nothing but assumptions and opinions, all of which could just be AS WRONG at the end of the day.
My concern simply is that upon spending to keep everyone together, we will still NOT BE good enough. Should that be the case, moves will have to be made to make us competitive, with the likelihood that core pieces will have to be moved. That is ALL I'm saying. You can think that isn't likely, but you can't be certain that it's wrong.
i apologize for being pretty rash in saying you were wrong. I do understand you're stand point and I'm gonna try to make this a more friendly rebuttal
the main problems I had with was the Podkolzin and Hoglander points, their ELC will indeed put them out of the range of JT Miller's contract and these are not assumptions:
Podkolzin said he was going to play out the verbal agreement he has. Even if he gets out of the last year and signs his 3 year ELC that puts his contract AFTER Miller's
Hoglander, I am super excited for him but he's 5' 8" and is likely not going to be in the NHL next year. If he ends up playing a year in the SHL then I'm pretty sure his contract slides and it's 4 years and he's in the same boat of Podkolzin.
I like having cap flexibility as much as any other guy but as we move forward the line contracts do run out.
In 1 year contracts expiring: Tanev, Schaller, Spooner, Markstrom -- 13m
in 2 years contracts expiring: Edler, Pearson, Sutter, Baertschi -- 17.4m
in 3 years contracts expiring: Erickson, Roussel, Beagle -- 12m
The above shows that we have a ton of cap clearing out throughout the 1-4 years. Now we may be signing Markstrom / Pearson to another contract but overall there is cap here to regain, like 3.1m in spooner, and edler in 6m (perhaps retiring at that time or sign cheaper)
We have flexibility in terms of contracts out to fit any of our guys. Also in terms of Juolevi and Demko they are likely to be resigned to a bridge deal 2-3 years considering their current trajectory in the NHL. (Demko hasn't had enough starts, and Juolevi too injured to put down big money down on now). Most importantly if there is a player worth while then the Canucks will find a way to fit them in.
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3 minutes ago, Virtanen#18 said:
So my question is, what is the point then?? Zero impact on cap space for both teams and the guy had already signed with a Czech club.
Each team has a 50 contract limit and Canucks had 50 contracts on their roster which made them ineligible to make the JT Miller trade unless another contract went back.
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1 minute ago, Virtanen#18 said:
Can someone pls explain how Mazanec is still under contract with us?? How could we include him in this deal?
all players are under contract until July 1rst at that moment the year runs out and in this case Mazanec becomes UFA.
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3 minutes ago, Generational.EP40 said:
This is it right here & whoever disagrees with this is wrong regardless of what they say. This is the reality of the trade.
So let’s hope we don’t get &^@#ed in the ass and make the playoffs this season for our sake
Concur in isolation its no good.
Inquiry though, what if JB makes another trade from VGK something like:
VGK receives: <something>
VAN receives: Clarkson (5.25m dump), Colin Miller, <draft pick>
where maybe that draft pick is a 2nd, if we give them a Leivo in return maybe a conditional first ? Would something like that put the first trade into a better light in the now ?
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3 minutes ago, Specz said:
What will we be paying them? How close will we be to the cap once their salaries are accounted for? Demko? How much cap do we have left to pay Podkolzin? Hoglander? Moves will have to be made man. I'm trying to think this through, don't think I'm overreacting.
there is so much wrong in here its hard....
firstly:
Podkolzin in the KHL for 2 years, when he signs he'll sign a 2-3 year ELC (depending on age I believe) so thats 4-5 years until you have to sign him to his first NHL contract.
Hoglander likely a year in the SHL prior to moving to the AHL so roughly 4 years for him.
secondly:
cap goes up in 3 years. Honestly the cost of a 5.5m contract is likely to be good third line player at that point. Things change and contracts also run out by the end of that time frame so it's silly to think that this 5.5m hampers any contract re-signings..
thirdly:And you are assuming that they are going to be superstars like Pettersson / Boeser / Marner / Matthews ? nah it's great to have cap flexibility but you can't hold 10's of million of cap space just to have in the bank for 4 years from now...
and the final nail in the coffin...
In 4 years that 5.5m goes off the cap space anyways lol so really this contract has nothing to do with resigning the picks these years and really 5.5m is not onerous.
on my own thoughts on this trade:
I like the addition but obviously not liking the cost of the first for a forward.. would rather use that for Barrie. Hopefully we can find something on Colin Miller in VGK. if we find good value in grabbing him and perhaps get a good trade assets for Tanev then I can accept this trade more joyously
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23 minutes ago, runtzguy said:
Because at 10, I would want someone that can carry a line on his own. That is why I wanted Matthew Boldy because I see that potential in him. Do I have proof? Of course not. Only time will tell and hopefully I am wrong about Podkolzin.
I don't really know where this "doesn't carry a line on his own" label came from...
Here's proof otherwise as referenced from the Athletic:
QuoteRussian U18 coach Vladimir Filatov on Podkolzin: “He’s the heart of a team. He always wants to set an example on and off the ice. He’s maybe not the most elite skill player or an elite sniper, but he’s a leader, he runs the game. His game is always about controlling the puck, pushing the play forward and putting everything on the net.”
and a quick analytical blurb from Corey Pronman:
QuoteTeam Fit: In Podkolzin, the Canucks get a unique prospect to add to their farm system. Podkolzin is a high-end skilled winger who can score and make plays, but it’s his elite compete level that makes him so exciting and a driver for his line. He adds a hard element to their organization to complement all the skill they have drafted in recent years. All indications are he will come to the NHL after his two-year contract is done with SKA in the KHL.
Anyways to me his toolset and his character sounds a lot like Landeskog in terms of every aspect. Also sounds like he's the kind of role model and character that the Canucks are enamored with in their prospect evaluations.
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[Signing] Jordie Benn signs with Canucks
in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Posted
Benn is solid prob gonna be a bit pricey but is likely worthwhile either way.
his biggest asset is his versatility in playing left or right sides which would give us flexibility in case of injuries or if Juolevi looks good and we get a good deal for tanev or something.
on signing a depth defence, I’m a meh for that. I think we have enough alright guys in the AHL that can hold their head above water as a bottom pairing player.