Provost

That is again, verifiably not true. The few times they only get a partial change or the fact one guy is off the ice faster don’t account for 40% of his ice time as an “error rate”. First off, that would even out and net out to about nothing. Second, it is just not true.... verifiably not true. You are making arguments based on your feelings and not actual truth. Miller spent 1.5% of the time on lines that didn’t have Horvat or Petterson. Pearson was 5%. That is the amount of “noise” involved in the data with Green shuffling lines to shake things up.

Yep... objective reality and simple math is clearly biased against Jake, and I am a sad slave to reality. These aren’t fancy advanced statistics. These are just counts of his actual ice time. You are spouting nonsense to say that over 40% of his ice time being in the top 6 is really just 2-3 shifts here and there. It is a ludicrous position to take since it is simply verifiably not true. 2+2 = 4... in Your world of make believe, only haters believe that, since clearly 2+2 = 1 40% of his time being in the top 6 is a really good audition, he spent almost as much time on the ice with our top lines as he did with the bottom ones. The coaching staff never liked what they saw enough to keep him there permanently. Benning clearly liked him there so much that he spent a high draft pick and prospect to replace him there with Toffoli. I know it may hurt your ego, but they know more about hockey than you do. It isn’t just evil coach Green having it out for a player and trying to make us lose just to ensure Virtanen doesn’t get a “fair shake”. Maybe Jake grows up and becomes a legitimate, dependable, and consistent top 6 performer... but he hasn’t been that up to this point, even with plenty of minutes with our most skilled players. PS. Don’t whine about Goldobin, he wasn’t even on the team last season and Jake was. Arguing that the guy that was cut from the roster by the coaches was given preferential treatment over Virtanen makes even less sense than you ignoring math.

I think you might have to revisit your math... Over 40% of his ice time was with either Petterson or Horvat. 40% of 69 games is 28 games... not 13 games. He was closing in on half his ice time in the top 6. So he played the equivalent of 28 games with one of the top two centres. He played the remaining 41 games with one of Gaudette/Sutter/Beagle/Miller as his centre. 40% is just not “minimal time” or “just a few shifts at the end of games”. It isn’t complicated math... they aren’t “my” stats... they are percentages of his actual ice time.

Not even remotely. There are limited roster spots and ice time. No one wants it to be more merit based than players. You know what stops players from signing with you? Keeping a player on the roster ahead of you for six years when he has been outplayed by younger and better players for almost all of it. No player or agent would believe anything other than he didn’t live up to his end of the contract. We even let his agent try to find a landing spot for him and no teams had any interest.

They don’t have to give any “specific” instructions not to play Loui. Just make it clear that it is a development league so his playing time will likely be really limited as the prospects the ice time... but both teams expect him to be at all the practices and continue to remain in playing shape in case he is ever needed. There are plenty of ways to make it miserable for him.

Hopefully things get back on track once he is over here in a few months. I am happy that he will be under Larionov on the national team soon.

He was with the top two centres for over 40% of his total playing time, including his 2nd and 3rd most common line combos. He was with Miller/Petterson and Pearson/Horvat close to the same amount he was with Roussel/Gaudette... his most common linemates. That wasn’t just a few garbage minutes at the end of games or “minimal time” The data in no way backs up what you are saying...

Are you saying that Jake didn't get time in the top 6 last season? Here is the breakdown of his most common linemates for 5 on 5. He had plenty of time on the ice with our top two lines. 20.01% EV GAUDETTE,ADAM - ROUSSEL,ANTOINE - VIRTANEN,JAKE 15.47% EV HORVAT,BO - PEARSON,TANNER - VIRTANEN,JAKE 13.86% EV MILLER,J.T. - PETTERSSON,ELIAS - VIRTANEN,JAKE 4.06% EV BEAGLE,JAY - SCHALLER,TIM - VIRTANEN,JAKE 3.69% EV LEIVO,JOSH - SUTTER,BRANDON - VIRTANEN,JAKE 3.66% PP GAUDETTE,ADAM - PEARSON,TANNER - ROUSSEL,ANTOINE - VIRTANEN,JAKE 3.24% EV MOTTE,TYLER - SUTTER,BRANDON - VIRTANEN,JAKE 3.00% EV GAUDETTE,ADAM - LEIVO,JOSH - VIRTANEN,JAKE 2.37% EV HORVAT,BO - LEIVO,JOSH - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.58% EV FERLAND,MICHEAL - HORVAT,BO - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.53% EV BOESER,BROCK - PETTERSSON,ELIAS - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.48% EV HORVAT,BO - MILLER,J.T. - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.45% EV GAUDETTE,ADAM - MILLER,J.T. - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.40% EV ROUSSEL,ANTOINE - SUTTER,BRANDON - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.37% EV PEARSON,TANNER - PETTERSSON,ELIAS - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.37% EV PEARSON,TANNER - SUTTER,BRANDON - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.27% EV HORVAT,BO - ROUSSEL,ANTOINE - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.08% EV GAUDETTE,ADAM - PEARSON,TANNER - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.08% EV FERLAND,MICHEAL - SUTTER,BRANDON - VIRTANEN,JAKE 1.08% EV BAERTSCHI,SVEN - HORVAT,BO - VIRTANEN,JAKE 0.90% EV HORVAT,BO - SCHALLER,TIM - VIRTANEN,JAKE 0.90% EV ERIKSSON,LOUI - GRAOVAC,TYLER - VIRTANEN,JAKE 0.87% EV GAUDETTE,ADAM - SCHALLER,TIM - VIRTANEN,JAKE 0.71% PP GAUDETTE,ADAM - LEIVO,JOSH - PEARSON,TANNER - VIRTANEN,JAKE 0.63% EV BAERTSCHI,SVEN - GAUDETTE,ADAM - VIRTANEN,JAKE 0.63% EV LEIVO,JOSH - PETTERSSON,ELIAS - VIRTANEN,JAKE 0.58% EV BEAGLE,JAY - ROUSSEL,ANTOINE - VIRTANEN,JAKE 0.53% EV BEAGLE,JAY - MOTTE,TYLER - VIRTANEN,JAKE 0.50% EV BAERTSCHI,SVEN - SUTTER,BRANDON - VIRTANEN,JAKE 0.47% EV GAUDETTE,ADAM - MOTTE,TYLER - VIRTANEN,JAKE

Yep, a good fit. We need a solid 2 way guy who can PK and has enough skill to pot in a few points. Gaudette says he wants to play like Bergeron, but he just doesn't have the defensive chops yet to suit what we need. As much as Tyler Johnson is overpaid nowadays, I would have been happy if we swung a deal where we got something to take him on. Same sort of mold where he could fit that 3C spot.

It doesn’t make any sense that we wouldn’t sign him for that amount. He was our best fill in top 6 guy last season. Maybe we have more info on his injury than other teams? I really hope that it means we have some other dominos falling. I hope it isn’t just us just letting the chips fall on next season with whatever happens. With a Canadian division we are in really tough. No crappy rebuilding California teams to beat up on and all the Canadian teams got better this offseason.

You don’t have to buy it, but the actual players involved talk publicly about it and I think they probably know better. It wasn’t two years after Sundin left that Kesler broke out... it started right the next season. https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/leafs-hour/ryan-kesler-new-podcast-leafs-minus-kadri-burke-sundin-canuck/ The Sedins have talked about it and how they got his autograph as kids. Gillis also says it was Sundin who told him that Henrik should be captain. Immediately following Sundin playing with them, was the heyday of those players. Art Ross and Hart the next year for Henrik... then the next couple of years culminating in the 2011 run.

Yep... and if you ask Kesler and the Sedins, they gush about what a positive impact it was on them to play with him. I think the same idea is behind Jumbo on the Leafs. Instant respect in the locker room, and maybe their younger players will be more focussed. Heck, if they signed Perry... a little Corey Perry rubbing off on them wouldn’t hurt at all. Everyone hated playing against him but wanted him on their team. edit: I maybe could have formed the sentence better than “Corey Perry rubbing off on them”.... but either meaning could be equally accurate, so I will leave it...

No idea on this guy nowadays, but again... a $700k signing. At worst he will be AHL or taxi squad depth. A couple of seasons playing over 20 minutes a night in the KHL... maybe he isn’t anything like he was last time he was playing in the NHL. Maybe better, maybe worse.

Well signing on super cheap $700k deals doesn’t suggest “cashing it” at all. It suggests giving up cash to win. Bottom feeding teams would have paid them more just for name recognition to fans. I wouldn’t want to play against that line and they would do pretty well matching up with most 4th lines in the league. They would certainly produce well beyond their $2.1 million total price tag. 78 points total last year between them (26 points average). If they were on a line together this year they probably beat that production. Don't mistake them being well past their prime with not still being capable NHLers. Really though, it is pretty obvious they were signed for culture reasons and not just for on ice performance... much like we signed Sundin back in the day.

I don’t know if you are being sarcastic or not... It is, however, legitimately dumb for someone to compare Gourde, Johnson, Colburn, and Paquette to Baertschi, Eriksson, Sutter, and Beagle. They were a championship team because they had effective depth and the ELC contracts to be able to afford them. I take the bottom half of Tampa’s roster any day of the week over ours. Heck, cap hit aside... Tyler Johnson is probably our 5th best forward if he is on our team. He is a 45-50 point guy who got pushed down the lineup for just the past season because of players like Brayden Point.

He and Gaudette faced much lower competition and 3rd pairing D a lot because the top half of our lineup got all the tough matchups... even the 4th line got tougher matchups. If he is in the top 6, it is a whole different game. He would be facing the best D pairing every night. There is a huge gap in how good top pairing guys are than bottom pairing. Even the advantage of playing with Petterson and Miller isn’t going to guarantee he scores 18 goals again, because it is going to be a different level of competition. Scoring against Luke Schenn is a little easier than against Victor Hedman. There is a reason that 4th liners aren’t always just moved up higher in the lineup so they can score more. It doesn’t work that way. You can’t just pro-rate Jake’s points per 60 and scale it up if he plays more minutes. The numbers don’t mean the same thing. One isn’t predictive of the other. You have to see him play there to see what his production would be, and have to consider how other players would fit in that spot instead.

Yep, big question marks on Leivo due to injury. Our team will have a better handle on it than anyone else, so will be able to make the best determination. It also means they instead of $1.5 million or more, we would be able to sign him for close to league minimum. He could he buried in the minors, be on our expected “taxi squad”, or be totally ready and be in our top 6. None of those options negatively impact our cap. On the other hand, there are still better players out there without a contract. Is Athanasiou or Duclair going to end up signing somewhere for under $1 million to try to pad their numbers before hitting free agency again next summer? Are Granlund or Grabner going to find landing spots? One thing we definitely have to offer is opportunity to play higher in the lineup than many other teams. We have four legit top 6 forwards, and Pearson who is filling in pretty decently, but is preferably an excellent 3rd liner.

That is deeply skewed by usage. For example, Bo and Jake together took 18 total defensive zone face offs together. Without Jake, Bo took 120 defensive zone face offs. The fact we had more goals against when starting in our own zone isn’t a function of Jake’s contribution at all... it is just a fact of hockey. It also shows that with Bo on the ice without Jake, he had a better sv% than with Jake... Even while taking way more defensive draws. sv% is widely considered a pretty useless stat except in combination with a lot of other info.

They are from an Athletic story which is behind a paywall. They just compare how much of Virtanen’s offence is negated by how much they give up defensively with him on the ice and the stat I linked is how offensively productive our centres were with and without Jake 5 on 5. We had Toffoli, Boeser, and Leivo for various parts of last season (though not at the same time) and they did play on various lines, so those would largely have been the alternatives. It doesn’t mean Jake isn’t the best “remaining” option, it just means that you have to contextualize it. It helps show who is driving a line compared with just line combos which can’t tease out individual contribution.

This is an excellent point that I have made a few times before. Based on just the playoffs, our top 6 winger should be Motte or Sutter, and Demko is the best goalie in the history of the game. No one who actually understands stats uses tiny sample sizes and makes conclusions from them. If you backed up a step and tried to come up with a confidence level for how reliable those stats are without appropriate sample sizes, the variability becomes higher. In this case, the difference between the two players is certainly less than the variability you would expect in the stats. When you see polls that show +/- 4% 19 times out of 20... and shows two candidates 1% apart... that doesn’t mean one is ahead, it is within the margin of error, and those polls have large sample sizes vs. just a few games. As I said above though, the comparison between them is a red herring because it wouldn’t have been a choice between them, they can play multiple positions. Would folks argue they wouldn’t want another Motte in the 4th line? Or a 2nd PK pairing of Sutter-Nordstrom to go with Motte-Beagle?

Gaudette is more valuable if he can be a centre rather than wing, but I definitely see this happening sometime during the season. If we have Sutter and Beagle in the lineup, we have three bottom six centres... so it is a choice of playing one of them on the wing. It could easily be a 3rd line of Roussel-Sutter-Virtanen (with Gaudette in the top 6), as it could be Roussel-Gaudette-Sutter (with Virtanen in the top 6). I would be surprised if we don’t see both happening in the season and probably even in the same game.

Again, even the most basic research is beyond you. He can play either wing. All your “him or Motte” ranting is nonsense... or WADR as you call it. Also, Motte can play either wing... and they both have experience playing centre. Somehow in the dark recesses of your tortured thought processes it is bad to have guys who can play all three forward positions? You know, because injuries never happen and Coaches hate having versatility to make up line combinations... Our team lacks PKers and has to use one of our best offensive forwards to do it. Having a guy like Norstrom who is effectively a PK specialist would give us a 2nd pairing to do that job and free up Horvat from much of that role. SCOUTING REPORT Owns a very projectable frame and plenty of lineup versatility, mainly due to his polished game. Can kill penalties with aplomb and play either wing position. Does not have a lot of scoring ability at the NHL level. Also, he could stand to add more bulk in order to withstand the rigors of the National Hockey League. http://www.sportsforecaster.com/nhl/player/7880 https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/canucks-under-the-microscope-tyler-motte

I am still thinking we pick up one of the remaining “project” forwards available or re-sign Leivo. The organization didn’t have faith in Jake being a top 6 player at the deadline when they gave up futures to backfill an injured Boeser. They didn’t have faith in him after that when he was on the 4th line while Eriksson was playing on the 2nd line. They didn’t have faith in him when he was benched during the playoffs. Benning said publicly that he wanted more out of Jake in the playoffs. Nothing has indicated that they are comfortable with him in the top 6, so it is a “last resort” option if they can’t find a better option. Every line scored more without him than with him last season and they gave up more with him than without.

We don't have to be compliant including Ferland before putting him on LTIR. We just have to be on the 1st day of the season after he is (maybe) on LTIR. We will pobably have to keep the waiver guys like Eriksson on the roster before putting Ferland on LTIR so that we are as close to the cap as possible and maximizing the amount of LTIR space we have.

Points per game isn’t the same as points per minute played.