cleowin Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Hi Everyone, It's been a few years since I did this, but I am going to provide post-game updates every now and then regarding the playoff bar for the NHL & Lottery Bar as well. Some Notes about the formula: I am taking each Team's Total Points / Games Played *82 for the Playoff Bar Mid-Point: The Number of projected points from the top projected team and the worst projected team in each conference. West: Playoff Bar: 83 Points (VAN needs 71 Points / 35-34-1 / To Clinch) - Several Teams tied for 8th place by projection (@ 82 Points) Mid-Point: 86 Points East: Playoff Bar: 98 Points (CBJ & WSH Tied for 7th @ 98 Point Projection) Mid-Point: 87 Points 31st Overall: DET on pace for 45 points, Van would need to have 44 points or less (16-54-0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalie13 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 38 minutes ago, Shaelon said: West: Playoff Bar: 83 Points (VAN needs 71 Points / 35-34-1 / To Clinch) - Several Teams tied for 8th place by projection (@ 82 Points) The bar is too low. Last year, Colorado needed 95 points to make it in. St. Louis and Dallas missed with 94 and 92 points. The year before, Nashville and Calgary were the Wild Cards with 94 points. The year before that, Minnesota squeaked in with 87. One year further, Winnipeg had the final spot with 99 points. It would be more accurate to use historical averages than to use points projections. The season is too young for points projections to yield accurate predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted October 29, 2018 Author Share Posted October 29, 2018 Just now, goalie13 said: The bar is too low. Last year, Colorado needed 95 points to make it in. St. Louis and Dallas missed with 94 and 92 points. The year before, Nashville and Calgary were the Wild Cards with 94 points. The year before that, Minnesota squeaked in with 87. One year further, Winnipeg had the final spot with 99 points. It would be more accurate to use historical averages than to use points projections. The season is too young for points projections to yield accurate predictions. Yes, and the point projections will even it self out over time, but previous averages doesnt indicate anything for current season, so for the moment, I'm just using the average point projections, and over the season, the numbers will increase in the west, and likely drop in the east to around 93-98 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GritGrinder Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 No magic #'s needed. Simple formula for making the playoffs in either conference. Since the 2005 lockout the average to claim the final wild card in both conferences is 95 points. So you break the season down into 10 game segments, you need 12 pts every 10 games, with that you'll have 96pts with the final 2 games of the season to either make the final push into the playoffs, secure or move your position up. Its doubtful the final wild card will be drastically higher or lower than the 95pt threshold I mentioned. Right now the Canucks are on an 82 point pace collecting 12 pts in 12 games, they were right there after the Vegas game at 6-4 but the 2 subsequent losses have pushed them just on the outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 Updated Projection: Playoff Bar - West: 89 Points (VAN Needs 38-30-1 Record) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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