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Shaelon

[OFFICIAL] Playoff Indicator Chart 2011

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This thread is just one epic facepalm, not to the op but everyone saying he's wrong....

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Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games.

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The idea of clinching is to take the worst possible scenario, and assume it can happen. Would the team in question still hold a spot in the worst possible scenario, and the answer is clearly no.

Taking the remaining games, if the Canucks were to lose out, and all remaining teams have the worst possible results for the Canucks' situation, the Canucks could fall as low as 12th. That's right, even below Columbus. This is factoring in EVERY remaining game, and I didn't even necessarily need all games ending in 3 point games to make this happen.

This is assuming in order:

Canucks lose every game in regulation.

All other games against St Louis, Colorado, Edmonton, Eastern conference results in a win for the team in the hunt

Once higher seeded teams overtake the Canucks, they are free to lose either in regulation or OT

Yep, I made every single team that can still theoretically catch the Canucks do so. And this is outright surpassing, no tie-breakers.

That said, it's assinine to assume that this can happen, but that's why they play the games.

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Guys... we don't need to beat the other top 8 teams in the West to clinch a playoff spot... WE ONLY NEED TO WIN OUR DIVISION, AND WE TAKE THE THIRD SEED.

Flames have 81 points with 11 games to go. Wild have 77 points and 13 games to go. The best either can do is 103 points.

Four points alone MIGHT be enough, depending on the regulation vs. shootout wins for Calgary and Minny (tie-breaker is now based on non-shootout wins, not all wins)... five points WILL DO IT, as that will give us 104 points.

What the rest of the conference does is irrelevant to the Canucks getting playoff berth... only to where that berth lands.

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<br style="text-shadow: none;">Who? The OP? I think he's right...<br style="text-shadow: none;">In order for us to fall out of a playoff spot, we need 8 out of a possible 11 teams to pass us. This seems plausible until you take into account that these teams play each other and only one of the two teams can get a full two points in these games. It would take a lot of math to see if it's true that we've clinched, but it makes sense. <br style="text-shadow: none;"><br style="text-shadow: none;">It's sad that some people are this ignorant. +1 to the OP for pointing this out.<br style="text-shadow: none;">
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Obviously the "magic number" is dynamic - Flames and Wild each lose their next game, we only need three points to clinch, for example. AT THIS MOMENT our magic number is 5... and most importantly, relies only on the performance of those two teams.

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Amazing! There are still people thinking that Canucks have already clinched even though simple examples that Canucks could miss the playoffs have been given by some replies. Read the replies!

And the sad thing is they feel sad for the people who disagree with them.:lol:

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No, this is not a duplicate of the Magic Number thread, read on.

According to http://www.sportsclu...st/Canucks.html the Canucks clinched a playoff spot with tonight's win over the Flames. This site performs a simulation of possible remaining results, and in all cases the Canucks finish 8th or better.

The NHL hasn't realized it (no 'X' beside Vancouver on nhl.com), and none of the media seems to have picked up on it either. The math is difficult, much more complex than the simplistic "Magic Number" calculation /topic/293086-official-magic-number-chart-2010-2011">http://forum.canucks...chart-2010-2011, which can be a poor predictor of playoff/division/conference clinching due to it's failure to take into account all the remaining interactions between other teams.

It's not surprising the media missed it, but it is surprising the NHL doesn't have some decent math guys and/or software to figure this out. It'll be interesting to see how long before everyone catches on.

UPDATE: Since the original post, sportclubstats.com has withdrawn their claim of 100% playoff certainty. See below for more discussion.

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The Math is simple Einstein. And no they havent clinched sh*t

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The math is simple, but the common sense is a bit more difficult. Some of us don't need a statistician to tell us that we have clinched. Maybe not numerically but realistically we clinched when we got to 97. Do you honestly believe that the 8th place team will have 99 points and more wins than us and we lose every single remaining game in regulation?

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If anyone is confused about my Magic Number Chart, I list 100% when its listed at 99.995% or higher. Its too many sig figs to place on a chart. Until I put "X" or "Clinched" in the PLAYOFF% Catagory, the team listing 100% has not clinched.

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If the Canucks win against Minnesota, we will move up to 101 points making it impossible for Calgary ( 2nd in the northwest ) to catch up to us, thus we clinch our division. Calgary has 10 games remaining and they sit at 81 points, even if they do win all their games and move up to 101 points if we lose all of ours after the Minnesota game we still have the division clinched. This is because of the NHL's new rule "The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout (NEW for 2010-11). This figure is reflected in the ROW column." We have 41 games won in regulation and they'd have only 38 if they won the rest of their games. Beating Minnesota would eliminate their chance of catching up to us as well, so tomorrow we can clinch ! Just thought I'd let all you Canucks fans out there know.

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please man the horse has been beaten enough, the canucks need 5 more points, end of story

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2 more wins by us, or 2 more Lames losses in regulation = weve clinched the Northwest!

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No?

Calgary has 11 games remaining and if they win all of them, they will finish with 103 points. If Minnesota loses in overtime, they could still finish up to 102 points.

If the Canucks win tomorrow, they'll only be at 101 points.

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lol sportsclubstats ran 10,000,000 simulations of this and the canucks never once finished lower then 7th. they are clinched.

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Why is everyone so concerned with clinching a play-off spot?

There's no doubt about it that we should be able to win at least 3 games. (2 against Edmonton, 1 against Calgary)

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