Dazzle
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Posts posted by Dazzle
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2 hours ago, Provost said:
Umm go back to my posts and actually read them...
I said we had a low chance of making the playoffs, we had a low chance of making the playoffs (you know... actual math and reality).... pretty much everything since then has gone really well for us (both Calgary AND Montreal falling badly of the pace AND we had a big winning streak, AND Ottawa has been strategically winning games against our opponents and stealing points from them).... AND WE STILL ONLY HAVE A REMOTE CHANCE OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS of only slightly more than when I made the thread. The most optimistic model shows a 20% chance, and most of them are still in the low teens at best.
People (like Dazzle and a couple others) having an emotional and irrational response to actual math and objective reality are just being ridiculous. It is also amusing how they get really quiet on this thread when we lose one game and things look worse... then get all puffy and mouthy when we win one game and feel some hope again. How irrational and emotional is that for a response when one win or one loss doesn’t change our fortunes materially at all.
The entire season has literally illustrated the exact point of the thread, showing that I was correct... and yet people are still being butt hurt about it. Almost everything going right for us has barely moved the needle on our odds LITERALLY BECAUSE of what I outlined in my OP about all the teams ahead of us having guaranteed points between them.
If you have under a 20% chance of something... don't bet on it happening. If you bet on it, you are going to lose at least 4 out of 5 times. Almost the entire season is gone and we have moved from a 1 in 6 chance to a 1 in 5 chance. Even that is giving a huge benefit of the doubt because the original Moneypuck model I quoted that HAD us at 15-16% when I started the thread currently has is at 6.7% chance. A number of the other models have also dropped substantially in that time.Talk about “premature”.... some folks taking a weird victory lap about us making the playoffs when our odds haven’t really changed at all and are still a huge long shot.
Heck, if you go back through the posts, I even predicted that it would be very "Canucks like" for us to make a late push that would be enough to just miss the playoffs but also make our draft position much worse. We are trending exactly towards that right now.
That's not what "out of reach" means, so either you don't know what that phrase means, or you're trying to defend the indefensible - that you erred.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/out of reach
Out of reach doesn't mean "less than 20 percent"
Out of reach means mathematically eliminated, which was a wrong position to take so early in the season.
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Just now, Devron44 said:
Why is the thread called Playoffs are outta reach? Just curious. Seemed like it was easy to edit it then why so hard to edit it now?
Yeah, the playoffs were never out of reach, but this thread does serve as a time capsule to see which posters made silly posts.
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10 hours ago, Goal:thecup said:
Agreed with your points that are embedded in the other post. It's clear that a good portion of this fanbase doesn't actually know what they're talking about because they've let emotion take over their rational parts of the brain. I thought making a thread like this was pretty damn premature. If we go back later and see some of the posts made, we can just laugh.
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On 4/21/2021 at 9:31 AM, Provost said:
I genuinely have no idea how it will turn out in the end. There are too few games for any predictive model to be very accurate as there isn’t enough runway for any unusual variation to even out. One team winning 5 games in a row or one team losing 5 games in a row is entirely possible. The road is still steeply uphill for us because we are well behind.
Montreal and Vancouver have 7 more games combined against Calgary. We need Calgary to be good enough to win against Montreal but bad enough lose against us.... that is the path that has opened for us that wasn’t there beforehand.
There ie overlap between the bell curve of possible end of season points predictions for us and Montreal... but most of their bell curve gives them an end of season that beats us.
I am not actually fussed about it at this point. The OP was that we were far enough behind that it would have been smarter to try to move some assets out. Being proactive was the idea and playing the odds. Knowing that everything has pretty much fallen out way since, I would still do the same. The great thing is if you play the odds, you win more often than not.
Now that point has passed so there are no real decisions to be made that can improve the team longer term... and nothing left aside from cheering for us to win. I think the new young bottom six gives us a better chance of of winning, and I would like to see how they fare and who we should keep going forward.
I was in the stands the last time we played Toronto in the playoffs and there when we eliminated them. Just imagine our fan base and the sad Toronto Sports Network pundits if our pretty terrible roster that includes some of their cast offs gave Toronto another 1st round exit.
People have been trying to tell you that there were lots of games to be played, so your thread was flawed and premature. This whole thread, not just you, illustrates how emotional and irrational this fanbase is. As for your other point, the possibility was always there because the season was far from 'over'. You just assumed - not correctly - that it was over.
There were some classic nuggets that didn't age very well at the start by Buzzsaw, who thought the Canucks handed Calgary the cup at about 10 percent of the season.
At least you're willing to reflect on a thread you made. Some people like Buzzsaw will continue to think that the Canucks handed the cup to Calgary long after we've made the playoffs... There are some other posters that won't even dare to reappear because they KNOW they were wrong. It's annoying for people to make 'bold' statements, but be unable to take responsibility for them.-
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1 hour ago, RU SERIOUS said:
Shouldn't the score have read Canucks 4 Jake 2 ? That useless boat anchor almost cost us the game - AGAIN. How many times do we have to see this train wreck on the ice throw a game for the opponents? Our team spent half the game trying to undo the damage he caused - AGAIN. He should be benched permanently. He is a cancer on this team robbing our rookies at a chance to play. At least they try. Can't wait until he's gone and can't believe Uncle Jim signed him first before TT. WTF was he thinking??????????
Man this get me mad!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't disagree with you. Maybe this was the first time I noticed this, but I thought Virtanen showed A LOT of regret for taking dumb penalties. His body language wasn't really happy.
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1 hour ago, Petey_BOI said:
holtby has a .927 save percentage in his last 7 games. holtby has a .939 save percentage in his last 3 games.
Pearson has 3 goals in his last 4 games, pearson has 5 points in his last 7 games. he is a +2 in those games.
sutter has 2 goals in his last 4 games, he is a +2 in those games.
Myers has averaged 24:45 in his last 4 games, he is a +1 and has one assist
Schmidt has 2 points in his last 3 games, and is + 2
Highmore has zero points and is a + 1 in those 3 games.
hughes has3 points in his last 3 games, one on the PP and is a + 1 in those 3 games.
I wonder how Gaudette is doing?
Scratched for a second game in a row. In three games, if I'm not mistaken, he has a whopping 7 minutes of playing time. Chicago being the bottom feeding team that they are this season, couldn't even make space for Gaudette.
Really doesn't look good on him.
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3 hours ago, 73 Percent said:
Where have I ever said that. You're losing it man. All I said was his shot isnt nhl caliber. You did nothing to prove that a false narrative.
Good day to you sir.
So, YOU made the argument that you hadn't seen Podkolzin laser shots on KHL goalies. I gave you three examples of those (two really), and instead of being a man and admitting you were wrong, you decide to double down on your original position.
You're right. I'm losing it (my patience with this stupid board).
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5 minutes ago, 204CanucksFan said:
NHL caliber is a long way from elite like Boes, Bo or Petey
We'll see how wrong you are.
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6 minutes ago, 73 Percent said:
He did play in the khl for 2 seasons... do you have any clips of him rifling pucks in the net over there?
I want to believe it but it's going to take more than 1 instance when he was wide open against a teenage goalie to convince me.
This isn't a 'shot', per se, but it shows the kind of hands that he has. His shot will get even better than it is. Look at Horvat's improvement.
You really have to be kidding yourself if you think Podkolzin doesn't have a good foundation to be an NHL player.Anyway, I just wanted to prove a point that you were so wrong. Let's leave it at that.
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5 minutes ago, 73 Percent said:
He did play in the khl for 2 seasons... do you have any clips of him rifling pucks in the net over there?
I want to believe it but it's going to take more than 1 instance when he was wide open against a teenage goalie to convince me.
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Just now, 73 Percent said:
He did play in the khl for 2 seasons... do you have any clips of him rifling pucks in the net over there?
I want to believe it but it's going to take more than 1 instance when he was wide open against a teenage goalie to convince me.
KHL goalie.
Now, sit down pls.
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1 minute ago, 73 Percent said:
Boeser is a proven nhl sniper. Not just some clip scoring one goal on a teenage goalie all by himself.
Let me show you what you just posted
So your reasoning for gauging that his shot is NOT NHL CALIBRE is the fact that he hasn't played in an NHL game where he has scored on an NHL goalie.
Are you listening to yourself?
I guess Pettersson's shots in the SHL/WJC tournaments weren't NHL calibre either when we watched them. Like, seriously, you should rethink about how you are coming to these conclusions. I get that you want to be critical, but your METHODOLOGY for measuring someone's quality of shot is flawed.You can have an NHL calibre type shot without yet having played an NHL game. This is TOTALLY possible. Look at the AHL players. Some of the snipers are on the cusp of making the NHL.
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1 minute ago, 73 Percent said:
I seen that one. The problem I have with that shot is 99% of nhlers can make it with that amount of time and space.
Oh yeah?
I guess Boeser's shot is not NHL calibre then using your logic.Talking about the clip where Boeser had space and time to score on Price in his first season. Your methodology of gauging whether someone's NHL calibre or not is deeply flawed.
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17 minutes ago, 73 Percent said:
What shots exactly are you talking about in this clip? Theres really only one I've seen that supports your theory (The one timer between the dots). I'm looking to be convinced because I dont think his shot is up to NHL forward standards. Probably the weakest part of this game from what I've seen.
The moment I linked is exactly where his shot came in. And that's not a one timer. That was a snap shot. 1:18 something.
Also, there's been English speaking commentators (can't remember which one), that say his shot is NHL calibre, FWIW.
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4 hours ago, 204CanucksFan said:
The main problem I have putting him with Bo and Hog is that Pod, aside from being relentless in his puck pursuit, is already an elite playmaker/passer and on that line Bo is the only high end shooter so it kind of limits who is going to be finishing plays. Pod is a decent shooter but nowhere near the caliber of Boes, Bo, Petey or JT
You don't know that. Pod's shot is severely underrated.
Just look at this. You're telling me that this shot is "nowhere near the calibre" of all those players? I'd say you're lying.
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15 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:
Yep. And the longer it goes, the more it gets into your head and instead of taking shots from areas you would normally, you try low percentage passes....
....and on it goes....
Kind of feels like what Buffalo is going through... Except some Canucks fans will pretend that having a losing mentality is no big deal...
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2 minutes ago, Dumb Nuck said:
Not worth it.
You do have a cuddling wife. That's more than 90 percent of the guys here on CDC - and I am understating the number to be kind...
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4 minutes ago, King Heffy said:
If this is what we can expect from him on a consistent basis, I think most of us will be very happy with the trade.
Chicago fans didn't seem to like Highmore for offense, but they acknowledged his hustle. The Canucks need that.
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Why did that trip not get called there?
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Canucks overpassing.
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3 minutes ago, canuckfromlangley said:
how is that not interference on myers
The trip/hook on Hughes. Brutal reffing and by that, I mean the refs are rigging this.
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1 minute ago, KelownaCanucksFan said:
Player taken down on a 2 on 1 no call, why because he’s wearing a Canucks jersey
I don't get it either.
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Just now, canuck2288 said:
Nice static penalty kill vs the aggressive puck pressure ottawa kill
but that can’t be coaching right?
The hamonic penalty is bull$&!#.
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Pretty fair deal.
[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!
in Canucks Talk
Posted
It's fine. Some people skipped school too because they think the term "out for reach" is a synonym for highly unlikely.
Cough, Provost.