What do you guys think, is this a good method for figuring out a bridge deal or longer term deal for Hughes.

[Viper007]

12 minutes ago, aGENT said:

If he's getting $6-7m+, it should correspondingly be 5+ year term.

Whatever he gets paid, I just hope he outperforms it.  I would also prefer it to be long term so that we don't have to worry about if he wants to play with his brothers in NJ or not.

[aGENT]

7 minutes ago, Viper007 said:

Whatever he gets paid, I just hope he outperforms it.  I would also prefer it to be long term so that we don't have to worry about if he wants to play with his brothers in NJ or not.

It's really not that complicated. He should be right around those other guys $5m deals on a 3 year bridge. Maybe he gets a bit more because of the offensive ability (albeit at the expense of their better 2 way play, size etc). At most it should be somewhere around $5.2-$5.5m.

 

More money than that and there needs to be more term. Say $6-$6.5m for 5 years, $6.5-$7 for 6 years, $7-7.5m for 7 years, $7.5-$8 for 8 years.

 

And again, no massive change from what we've seen over the past 5+ years for D rates.

Edited August 22, 2021 by aGENT

[Viper007]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

It's really not that complicated. He should be right around those other guys $5m deals on a 3 year bridge. Maybe he gets a bit more because of the offensive ability (albeit at the expense of their better 2 way play, size etc). At most it should be somewhere around $5.2-$5.5m.

 

More money than that and there needs to be more term. Say $6-$6.5m for 5 years, $6.5-$7 for 6 years, $7-7.5m for 7 years, $7.5-$8 for 8 years.

I believe the Canucks value QH more than Dallas values Heiskanen.  Dallas has had better defenseman than the Canucks in recent years.  Maybe it's cause the canucks haven't had homegrown defenseman with this much potential in forever.  That's another reason I believe the Canucks will pay more for QH.  So if you want 8 years I think he'd get 8.5 Mill + personally.  Has he earned that?  Definitely not.  The landscape is changing for the worse.  RFAs are getting paid more and more.  

[aGENT]

10 minutes ago, Viper007 said:

I believe the Canucks value QH more than Dallas values Heiskanen.  Dallas has had better defenseman than the Canucks in recent years.  Maybe it's cause the canucks haven't had homegrown defenseman with this much potential in forever.  That's another reason I believe the Canucks will pay more for QH.  So if you want 8 years I think he'd get 8.5 Mill + personally.  Has he earned that?  Definitely not.  The landscape is changing for the worse.  RFAs are getting paid more and more.  

They're not though.

[Arrow 1983]

9 minutes ago, aGENT said:

They're not though.

you just don't want to see it 

 

you are one of those people that would say we need a  #1 d-man but when it comes to paying for them you want to value them as a #2 or even # 3 d-man.

 

The fact of the matter is Hughes was 11th in scoring by defense men last season of those 10 above him only 2 where as young as him Fox and Maker. Fox will be worth more than Maker and Hughes behind Maker. They are rank 1,2,3 in the league and therefore, will be paid 1,2,3 in there age group. Col set the mid price with Maker as he is number 2. Dal set the 2nd tier price with the Heiskanen deal why you cant see this doesn't make sense to me  

[Arrow 1983]

36 minutes ago, Viper007 said:

I believe the Canucks value QH more than Dallas values Heiskanen.  Dallas has had better defenseman than the Canucks in recent years.  Maybe it's cause the canucks haven't had homegrown defenseman with this much potential in forever.  That's another reason I believe the Canucks will pay more for QH.  So if you want 8 years I think he'd get 8.5 Mill + personally.  Has he earned that?  Definitely not.  The landscape is changing for the worse.  RFAs are getting paid more and more.  

I don't think the Canucks Value him more or less because of the past. Hughes is valued based on the league market. 

 

You asked has he earned it the answer is a clear yes read the post I wrote to Agent above for the reason why.

Edited August 22, 2021 by Arrow 1983

[aGENT]

5 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

you just don't want to see it 

See what? That GM'S have been paying UFA aged D $7m+ for years now? Guys like Spurgeon, Byfuglien, Vlasic or Carlsson? Nevermind truly big money guys like Doughty or Karlsson.

 

5 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

you are one of those people that would say we need a  #1 d-man but when it comes to paying for them you want to value them as a #2 or even # 3 d-man.

You don't speak for me and don't presume to tell me what I think, thanks. No, I'm merely suggesting we pay him RFA rates for his RFA years. And Hughes may certainly become a #1D, but he's not one yet. He lacks the all around game. Right now, he's a very offensively talented #2.

 

5 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

The fact of the matter is Hughes was 11th in scoring by defense men last season of those 10 above him only 2 where as young as him Fox and Maker. Fox will be worth more than Maker and Hughes behind Maker. They are rank 1,2,3 in the league and therefore, will be paid 1,2,3 in there age group. Col set the mid price with Maker as he is number 2. Dal set the 2nd tier price with the Heiskanen deal why you cant see this doesn't make sense to me  

Heiskenan's deal isn't a 3 year bridge. It's buying UFA years. You guys keep wanting to pay Hughes UFA wages for RFA years. Heiskenan is also a better all around D. Yes offense does pay, so does the multi dimensional play required of a true #1. And as in outlined above, Hughes would see a similar cap for similar term. He's not going to see that on a shorter term.

[Arrow 1983]

5 minutes ago, aGENT said:

See what? That GM'S have been paying UFA aged D $7m+ for years now? Guys like Spurgeon, Byfuglien, Vlasic or Carlsson? Nevermind truly big money guys like Doughty or Karlsson.

 

You don't speak for me and don't presume to tell me what I think, thanks. No, I'm merely suggesting we pay him RFA rates for his RFA years. And Hughes may certainly become a #1D, but he's not one yet. He lacks the all around game. Right now, he's a very offensively talented #2.

 

Heiskenan's deal isn't a 3 year bridge. It's buying UFA years. You guys keep wanting to pay Hughes UFA wages for RFA years. Heiskenan is also a better all around D. Yes offense does pay, so does the multi dimensional play required of a true #1. And as in outlined above, Hughes would see a similar cap for similar term. He's not going to see that on a shorter term.

well we will at least agree to disagree

 

you clearly did not read the post I wrote but you did comment on it. I said that UFA years costs weren't changing but clearly used the players you listed that were signed a year or 2 years ago to show you how RFA year costs had risen 

[Arrow 1983]

1 hour ago, Arrow 1983 said:

I disagree the Landscape has change the players you show prove it

 

Werenski signed 2 years ago, 3 years 5 million cap hit,

Segachev 1 year ago 3 years @ 4.8 million

McAvory 2 years ago  3 years @ 4.9 million 

 

With each of these players final years at 7.0, 7.20 7.3 mill which will be the qualifying offer 

 

Chabot 3 lowest years (RFA year) are 4.0, 7.0, 7.00 average of 6 million is the Highest but on a 8 year deal. 

 

Heiskanen 4 lowest (RFA years)  5.00, 6.6, 7.0,  average  6.6 million

 

Maker Average is 7.8 mill 

 

The number for the first 3 years is starting to increase. 

 

lets look at the 4th year final year of RFA. 7.0, 7.2 and 7.3 for the past 3 

 

and for Heiskanen 8.0 mill and Maker 9.00 million, again an increase from the past 2 years. Of the past contracts Chabot got 8 million again surpassing the other 3 but on an 8 year deal. 

 

You are correct the UFA years do seem to be stagnate around that 10 mill Chabot number and 11 mill For Heiskanen and Makers = to past contracts like Doughty and Karlsson

 

But it isn't the UFA years that I or others are referring to it is the RFA years amounts that are increasing.

 

I am wondering are you saying that on a bridge deal you are valuing Hughes @ 5 mill per. I wonder this because this years contracts are not dictating that. The only thing JB could argue is that next season is technically his 3rd season. 

 

Leaving Hughes with a contract structure, 5 mill for the first year (eq

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

They haven't changed much. There's a bit of inflation but Covid has largely minimized that.

 

You're trying to compare short bridge deals with long term ones buying UFA years. Most of these guys are going to go from being worth roughly the $5m-$6m'ish they are in their 3 year bridge, RFA years, to $8m-$10m (or more) UFA's.. that's why these guys are getting $6.5-$8.5 second deals. Teams are buying their $8m-$10m  UFA years and their $5-$6m RFA years and averaging that over 6-8 year terms.

ual to Heiskanen) 7 million for the 2nd year ( 400k above Heiskanen 6.6mill) and 7.5 million ( 500k above Heiskanen 7.0 mill) for 19.5 million over 3 years = 6.5 mill Cap Hit. Remember Heiskanen is 6.2 mill over the same period.

 

For a longer term all other yearly values from my OP would stay roughly the same. So a 6 year term would be 46.5 million or 7.75 mill cap hit, 

 

8 years would be 68.5 million or 8.5625 Cap Hit.

 

 

 

 

 

here it is again

[aGENT]

4 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

well we will at least agree to disagree

 

you clearly did not read the post I wrote but you did comment on it. I said that UFA years costs weren't changing but clearly used the players you listed that were signed a year or 2 years ago to show you how RFA year costs had risen 

They haven't. Not more than minor inflation anyway. Most of those guys signed 3 year bridge deals covering RFA only years. In fact leaving some. The guy's you were comparing them to, signed longer deals with UFA years.

[Arrow 1983]

11 minutes ago, aGENT said:

See what? That GM'S have been paying UFA aged D $7m+ for years now? Guys like Spurgeon, Byfuglien, Vlasic or Carlsson? Nevermind truly big money guys like Doughty or Karlsson.

 

You don't speak for me and don't presume to tell me what I think, thanks. No, I'm merely suggesting we pay him RFA rates for his RFA years. And Hughes may certainly become a #1D, but he's not one yet. He lacks the all around game. Right now, he's a very offensively talented #2.

 

Heiskenan's deal isn't a 3 year bridge. It's buying UFA years. You guys keep wanting to pay Hughes UFA wages for RFA years. Heiskenan is also a better all around D. Yes offense does pay, so does the multi dimensional play required of a true #1. And as in outlined above, Hughes would see a similar cap for similar term. He's not going to see that on a shorter term.

the first 3 years of RFA has clearly risen from 4.8-5.0 million to 6.6-7.8 million

 

the 4th year has risen from 7.0-7.3 million to 8.0-9.0 million 

 

that is on average 2 million per season for the first 3 years and 1- 2 million on the 4th year. or 7 million more total on a 4 years of RFA

 

 

[aGENT]

Just now, Arrow 1983 said:

the first 3 years of RFA has clearly risen from 4.8-5.0 million to 6.6-7.8 million

 

the 4th year has risen from 7.0-7.3 million to 8.0-9.0 million 

 

that is on average 2 million per season for the first 3 years and 1- 2 million on the 4th year. or 7 million more total on a 4 years of RFA

 

 

No, it hasn't. 

[Arrow 1983]

Just now, aGENT said:

They haven't. Not more than minor inflation anyway. Most of those guys signed 3 year bridge deals covering RFA only years. In fact leaving some. The guy's you were comparing them to, signed longer deals with UFA years.

so you say they left some why would Hughes leave some.

 

Second those long term deals are structure not as 9 million each year or 8.45 million per year but have different values for different years if you extract the lowest values and and have those as your RFA years and the Higher values as you UFA years you can clearly see what RFA and UFA years cost

[Arrow 1983]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

No, it hasn't. 

where is your prove I show you the math

[Arrow 1983]

4 minutes ago, aGENT said:

No, it hasn't. 

this is not a good response this a response by a person who has no prove. Just his feelings

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, Arrow 1983 said:

so you say they left some why would Hughes leave some.

 

Second those long term deals are structure not as 9 million each year or 8.45 million per year but have different values for different years if you extract the lowest values and and have those as your RFA years and the Higher values as you UFA years you can clearly see what RFA and UFA years cost

No, that variance doesn't directly equate to RFA year value. That's just a (poor) assumption on your part. Those contracts are over paying RFA years to under pay the UFA ones. They'd be seeing more than $8m in those UFA years otherwise.

[Arrow 1983]

5 minutes ago, aGENT said:

No, that variance doesn't directly equate to RFA year value. That's just a (poor) assumption on your part. Those contracts are over paying RFA years to under pay the UFA ones. They'd be seeing more than $8m in those UFA years otherwise.

Heiskanen 4 Highest payed years are 9-10-11-11 you are saying his UFA years would be more ?????

 

Makers 2 highest payed are 10.6 and 11.00 you are saying he would get payed more ????? 

 

Also I don't see 8.00 million in any of those numbers

Edited August 22, 2021 by Arrow 1983

[aGENT]

Just now, Arrow 1983 said:

Heiskanen 4 Highest payed years are 9-10-11-11 you are saying his UFA years would be more ?????

 

Makers 2 highest payed are 10.6 and 11.00 you are saying he would get payed more ????? 

Likely. They're elite D. Doughty and Karlsson were paid $11 and $11.5 for their big UFA years how many years ago? With another 4 years of inflation from now, what does that come to?

 

More than that I'd wager.

[Arrow 1983]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

Likely. They're elite D. Doughty and Karlsson were paid $11 and $11.5 for their big UFA years how many years ago? With another 4 years of inflation from now, what does that come to?

 

More than that I'd wager.

I will bet that is why Makers deal is only 6 years. His agent probable wanted 12-13 million for 2 more years but than that would have risen the AVV higher than Col wanted.

 

So I will consider what the actual numbers they got to be correct of what their worth is and not your hypothetical thinking.

[aGENT]

9 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

I will bet that is why Makers deal is only 6 years. His agent probable wanted 12-13 million for 2 more years but than that would have risen the AVV higher than Col wanted.

 

So I will consider what the actual numbers they got to be correct of what their worth is and not your hypothetical thinking.

Inflation isn't 'hypothetical'. Clear examples in differences of RFA and UFA years aren't 'hypothetical'.  What you're doing is 'hypothetical'.

 

And IMO COL got a bit bent over with Makar. He's a damn good player but they should have got another year or two out of that hit. It's a bit of an outlier IMO.

Edited August 22, 2021 by aGENT