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It's Sure Thing

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#1 Edler Is a Beast

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 11:50 AM

*Got this from The Province. Thought it was pretty funny lol.*

I have tried my best to avoid them, but advanced stats are becoming more and more popular among hockey fans each and every year. Some fans, in their ever hopeful desire to try and understand the chaos of pro sports, perhaps have turned to this new wave of stats as a better way to try and predict what will happen from their favorite sporting team. Maybe that Stanley Cup loss will hurt less if you saw it coming. (“Well OBVIOUSLY the Canucks lost in the finals, did you see Corsi numbers on the Sedins??”)

Other fans may view advanced stats as an exercise in breaking down and cataloguing trends as an exercise simply in statistics itself. Some people find serenity in trying to predict trends and outcomes of sports. They are that guy that will see a big goal occur and they will just knowingly nod their head and whisper “called it.” (Please note, never try and high five these guys. They will see you going for a high five and instead of returning the high five, they will give you a detailed list of the chances of the high five succeeding. “Your Fenwick rating with high fives is horrible, I give this a 28.8% chance of success.”)

As I said, I tried to avoid advanced stats. While some find excitement and intrigue in them, for the most part I find them tedious. Sure, I enjoy some of the stats (zone starts intrigue me, and Corsi to an extent is interesting to look at) but when I have to pull out my calculator to break down a game review, that’s when I ponder drinking myself into a coma instead. Maybe it’s just me, but if I want to boo Aaron Rome, sometimes I just want to boo Aaron Rome. I don’t want somebody informing me that “actually Aaron Rome is a really great player 5 on 4, when he plays on a Tuesday, and he wears black socks.” Let me be a fan and boo him, as misinformed as I might be. If I can’t irrationally attack a player, then what is the point of professional sports? My biggest nightmare is somebody breaking down Nathan Lafayette’s performance in 1994 and trying to argue that he was an amazing player. LAFAYETTE KILLED MY DREAMS. Let me have that.

That being said, all of that changed last week. Last week, whilst surfing the bowels of the internet, I came across a new trend slowly developing in the underground hockey world. A new trend that is bold, exciting, and possibly insane. The new trend you ask? EXTREME Advanced stats. These aren’t your grandpa’s Fenwick, Corsi, and PDO stats my friends, oh no. Take those stats, put them in a blender, add 2 bags of Charlie Sheen’s “special powder” and add some Red Bull, and you’ll end up with EXTREME Advanced stats. These stats not only help predict hockey better than advanced stats, they are even more confusing then regular advanced stats, making you look like a genius for understanding and using them. (Or crazy. Either or.)

So with that being said, I wanted to use EXTREME Advanced Stats to look at the Canucks chances versus the LA Kings, and the results, well, they might shock you. Let’s take a look, shall we?

The Willie Mitchell Effect:
Fact: Willie Mitchell has never won a cup. Fact: Willie Mitchell was on Vancouver and they never won a cup. Fact: Willie Mitchell is now on LA, thus they will never win a cup. It’s simple math, really. Look, Willie Mitchell was a great guy when he played for Vancouver, he really was. He was a local boy, he liked to fish, and he once used an extra long stick during warm up to piss off Mike Keenan. And really, who in Vancouver doesn’t love it when somebody pisses off Mike Keenan?
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But the fact of the matter is that by utilizing the key component of EXTREME Advanced Stats (small sample sizes) it becomes painfully obvious that Mitchell was the reason Vancouver lost in the playoffs every year he was here. I didn’t want to believe it either, but I did the math, and it shows it clear as day.
Willie Mitchell Stanley Cups = 0
You can’t escape that result, try as you might. The LA Kings will have a large mountain to climb if they want to try and beat the Willie Mitchell Effect because they score a whopping 10.0 on the Mitchell Effect Scale, whereas Vancouver scores a 0.
Advantage: Vancouver

The Ewok Rating:
The Ewok Rating is a simple premise. It takes a teams adorableness rating combined with it’s ability to kill and maim. The theory being that teams who play against people who look scary and mean will be more on guard and will be ready for the games, whereas teams looking over at nice, pretty players, won’t expect the ass kicking that is coming their way. The LA Kings score a 2.7 on the Ewok Rating whereas Vancouver scores a 8.4. Why you ask? Mostly due to Kopitar and Lapierre. Let’s break this down. Wait, let’s break this down…..TO THE EXTREME.
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Kopitar can beat you with his skill, the only problem is his Ewok rating is off the charts meaning everyone knows he can do it. If you see that face approaching you in a dark alleyway, you know what you do? You run. His eyes have the haggard look of a man needing a meal at any cost, the smile is forced and unnatural, and he dresses in all black. Never a good sign. Players will be on edge when playing against Kopitar because quite frankly he looks like he might be a zombie. And nobody wants to be eaten by a zombie. This is the last guy you would let waltz through the zone unattended. Dan Hamhuis will have his has stapled to the boards the second Kopitar even THINKS of trying to enter the Canucks zone. This is because Kopitar’s personal Ewok Rating is a league high 1.1, almost putting him in Mike Ricci territory.
(For point of reference to Ricci)
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Now take for example Maxim Lapierre:

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Well groomed facial hair, defined cheekbones, and he is not afraid of wearing a terrible shirt. That is somebody you wouldn’t think twice about when walking down the street or when passing by them in the neutral zone. Little would you know that Lapierre led the Canucks in hits and was 11th in the league overall in hits this year with 244. The closest Canuck to that? Kevin Bieksa with 159 hits. And you know why Lapierre led the team in hits? Because his Ewok rating is a whopping 9.2. A player sees Lapierre and he thinks “Oh look at that jovial French Canadian, I bet he wants to talk about poutine with me AHHHHHH” BAM. Lapierre drops them before they know what hit them. Bieksa? That dude has the teams highest Ewok rating of 2.8, people see Bieksa, they see him snarl, and they know they have to be on guard, hence the lower hit total.
The Canucks will score the first goal in 4 out of the 6 games the two teams play. They will do this because LA will not be prepared for the vicious onslaught Vancouver has planned for them because Vancouver doesn’t look very scary and they won’t expect it. Mason Raymond will deliver the shock of the playoffs when he knocks Kopitar out of the series with a thunderous body check at center ice.

The Corey Hirsch Effect:
The CHE stat is a simple premise backed up by, as usual, science. The theory is that goalies with stupid goalie masks win the Cup more than goalies with cool masks. This stat began getting measured when Corey Hirsch was on Vancouver and he had by far the coolest mask in the league, and went on to have by far the worst career ever.
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Look at that beast. Look at how beautiful it is. It might be lost on some fans who weren’t around back then, but the Canucks rode Kirk McLean’s mask of blandness all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals.
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Look at McLean’s mask. It is nothing flashy. It is subtle. Understated. And kind of boring. It is no wonder that when the Canucks acquired Hirsch, and he came in with this kick ass mask, that many assumed the Stanley Cup was right around the corner. “Well you have to assume that Hirch’s mask will get us at least one more win based on the fact it’s so awesome, and we were within one win of the cup in 1994….it’s just a matter of time!” thought many people in Vancouver.
Sadly Corey Hirsch was a terrible goaltender and the mask only caused pain and suffering in Vancouver, thus giving way to the idea that cool goalie masks lose you games. It is thought that the cool mask angers the other team and makes them wish they had the mask, and as such, they play even harder and in most cases, beat the goalie with the cool mask.
Want more proof? Look at goalies who have won the cup and have boring or stupid masks. Tim Thomas? Check. Dominik Hask? Check. Martin Brodeur? Check. Marc-Andre Fleury? Big check. (Any mask that has a penguin on it is by law a stupid mask. If you add flowers to the mix? Oh boy.)
So what does the CHE look like for the Kings-Canucks matchup?
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Luongo has a couple of masks, granted, but both of them are understated this year. The mask he will most likely wear will be the Johnny Canuck themed logo with a simple Vancouver wordmark on it. This is good. This is plain. This is not too flashy. There is no stupid Panther tail on the back, nor does it look like a rotting egg. Nothing stands out except for the slightly aggressive lumberjack on it. I would never see this in a store and think “I need that mask.” His CHE rating is a modest 4.5 out of 10.
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Jonthan Quick on the other hand? The dude has a crown and armor for a mask. That is, quite frankly, awesome. I would see that in a store and think “I need that mask. I want to be a knight. In net. Now.” Quick is playing with Corey Hirsch fire as his mask is way too cool and flashy for the Kings to have any chance in the playoffs. Quick scores a high 8.1 on the CHE rating scale.
Advantage: Vancouver
In summary, by using small sample sizes and the powers of numbers, I have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that the LA Kings will lose to the Vancouver Canucks in 6 games. LA will put up a fight, no doubt, but the numbers are against them. LA will lose, and they will lose for many years unless they embrace EXTREME Advanced Stats. For Vancouver’s sake, I hope the league doesn’t catch on to EXTREME stats until they win a cup, but don’t be surprised next year if you see Jonathan Quick wearing a blank mask, with Kopitar rocking a perm, and Willie Mitchell traded to another team.

#2 skrap


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:08 PM


#3 bustaruckus


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:16 PM

That was effing hilarious. Kudos for posting this, and making my day

#4 Hedgehog Hodgson

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:21 PM

Funny read.


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#5 Oregon Canucky

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:23 PM

This was amusing. I am amused. ::D

Edited by Oregon Canucky, 10 April 2012 - 12:23 PM.

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Portland Oregon: The first U.S. city to play for the Stanley Cup!

#6 Gumballthechewy


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:32 PM

“Oh look at that jovial French Canadian, I bet he wants to talk about poutine with me AHHHHHH” BAM.

I had to change my pants after reading that!

Don't take anything I say seriously! EVER!



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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:43 PM

"(Any mask that has a penguin on it is by law a stupid mask. If you add flowers to the mix? Oh boy.)"

Orland Kurtenbach and Dennis Kearns had just been torched 8-1 by the Habs, but they still took time to come out to meet us, some fellow BC boys who were playing hockey in Montreal. THAT"S what being a Canuck is!

#8 Nucks4dacup


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:44 PM

Pretty Funny! Awesome Read! :lol:

#9 Stark


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:48 PM

Hilarious :lol: great read!
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#10 Raiun


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:54 PM

Awesome, made my day. :) Thanks for posting!

#11 Jinx_RK17


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:13 PM

hahaha brilliant, loved it.

Nice post OP!

#12 Zissou


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:24 PM

Who wrote this? The Kurtenblog?

#13 Canucklehead420


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:29 PM

How are you not working for an NHL club? lol funny stuff.

#14 CanucksxDream


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:38 PM

LOOOL!!! But what about in 2010, Niemi's mask for Leighton's mask???? I personally think Niemi's mask was far better than Leighton's o.o And last year, Thomas's mask vs Luongo's Mask??? I personally thought Thomas had the better one, but nice one OP!
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#15 Captain Vietnam

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:41 PM

Some great stuff here. Made my day.

#16 nuxforever


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:49 PM

This is so hillarious....I couldn't stop laughing
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waiting for the day to hear the announcer say........"As the clock winds down. They have done it! Ladies and Gentleman, Your Vancouver Canucks are STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS!!!

#17 Withnail


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:54 PM

That was actually one of the best sports articles I've ever read. Completely hilarious.

#18 TheCammer


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 02:28 PM

I hate those frigging Ewoks.

Thanks OP. That was a nice distraction at work.
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#19 Jai604


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Posted 10 April 2012 - 03:35 PM

Hahaha great read. +1


#20 Edler Is a Beast

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 06:07 PM

“Oh look at that jovial French Canadian, I bet he wants to talk about poutine with me AHHHHHH” BAM.

I had to change my pants after reading that!

Yeah that's my favourite line in the whole article. :lol:

That and the bit about Kopitar lol.

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