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danaimo

The Strength Of Mike Gillis' Position

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10 teams chasing 4, 9 teams chasing 2

I never thought of it that way. Clever

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True. Hes only dealing from a position of weakness if he thinks he is....and he likely doesnt

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A week has passed since Roberto Luongo said that he might waive his NTC and speculation has been rampant. Assessment of what the Canucks might get in return varies from a huge overrated, overpaid bit part coming back as a salary dump, to outrageously optimistic package of elite stars. So what is the strength of MG in this market?

This summer there are possible as many as 10 NHL teams that are looking to obtain a quality #1 starting goalie. On the supply side of the ledger there might only be 4 goalies available. In order of desirability it would be Schneider, Luongo, Thomas and maybe Bernier. Thomas has been an elite goalie for the last few years but his age, attitude and antics will seriously reduce his value. Bernier is an outside choice supply because LA have not showcased him. They chose to ride Quick all season and so Quick is arguably worth less today than he was 2 years ago.

People have suggested that Luongo's trade value is low, but given the demand for goalies and the fact that Vancouver CAN trade Schneider, Luongo's trade value is larger than many people think.

Consider the situation where the only team interested in Louie is Toronto. Burke offers Komisarek for Louie. That's it. Nothing more. This might be a worse case scenario for the Canucks. Mike Gillis just has to call up CBJ, NYI, TBL and offer up Schneider. if Schneider goes off the market, so does Luongo. Now Toronto still don't have a goalie, Burke now really feels the heat and is forced into making a really bad trade for either Thomas or Bernier. Effectively the market will go from 10 teams chasing 4 goalies to 9 teams chasing 2 goalies. The first team that moves for one of Vancouver's goalies will surely win out. The other 9 teams will be left to grasp at smoke.

This puts MG in an awesome position. Luongo's value is enormous in light of these simple market fundamentals. Give us something really valuable for Louie or we trade Schneider to someone else and you fight for the crumbs on the table.

Vancouver have complete control over the trade market for goalies and although the market for Louie might be small, the fact that they can trade Schneids makes Louie's value artificially high. I'm sure the logic of this is not lost on MG or the other 29 GMs.

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A week has passed since Roberto Luongo said that he might waive his NTC and speculation has been rampant. Assessment of what the Canucks might get in return varies from a huge overrated, overpaid bit part coming back as a salary dump, to outrageously optimistic package of elite stars. So what is the strength of MG in this market?

This summer there are possible as many as 10 NHL teams that are looking to obtain a quality #1 starting goalie. On the supply side of the ledger there might only be 4 goalies available. In order of desirability it would be Schneider, Luongo, Thomas and maybe Bernier. Thomas has been an elite goalie for the last few years but his age, attitude and antics will seriously reduce his value. Bernier is an outside choice supply because LA have not showcased him. They chose to ride Quick all season and so Quick is arguably worth less today than he was 2 years ago.

People have suggested that Luongo's trade value is low, but given the demand for goalies and the fact that Vancouver CAN trade Schneider, Luongo's trade value is larger than many people think.

Consider the situation where the only team interested in Louie is Toronto. Burke offers Komisarek for Louie. That's it. Nothing more. This might be a worse case scenario for the Canucks. Mike Gillis just has to call up CBJ, NYI, TBL and offer up Schneider. if Schneider goes off the market, so does Luongo. Now Toronto still don't have a goalie, Burke now really feels the heat and is forced into making a really bad trade for either Thomas or Bernier. Effectively the market will go from 10 teams chasing 4 goalies to 9 teams chasing 2 goalies. The first team that moves for one of Vancouver's goalies will surely win out. The other 9 teams will be left to grasp at smoke.

This puts MG in an awesome position. Luongo's value is enormous in light of these simple market fundamentals. Give us something really valuable for Louie or we trade Schneider to someone else and you fight for the crumbs on the table.

Vancouver have complete control over the trade market for goalies and although the market for Louie might be small, the fact that they can trade Schneids makes Louie's value artificially high. I'm sure the logic of this is not lost on MG or the other 29 GMs.

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Great post OP, excellent understanding and outlook to so many people thinking Luongo isn't worth much. Not only will trading luongo free up some cap space, he's also able to fetch us a lot considering many will be bidding for his services, and, Burke probobly has to make a move if he likes his job.

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Vokoun is in the mix and lets not forget about a possible 3 way deal envolving more players

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If we had to take on a salary dump then I'm not sure why we would trade Lou? If a trade is going to happen we can't end up with wasted cap space (salary dump) which is partially needed to resign Schneider. A prospect(s) and or draft choice(s) would perhaps be best the best return for Lou or another alternative is a good player that doesn't want to resign with their current club, for example Zach Parise.

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A week has passed since Roberto Luongo said that he might waive his NTC and speculation has been rampant. Assessment of what the Canucks might get in return varies from a huge overrated, overpaid bit part coming back as a salary dump, to outrageously optimistic package of elite stars. So what is the strength of MG in this market?

This summer there are possible as many as 10 NHL teams that are looking to obtain a quality #1 starting goalie. On the supply side of the ledger there might only be 4 goalies available. In order of desirability it would be Schneider, Luongo, Thomas and maybe Bernier. Thomas has been an elite goalie for the last few years but his age, attitude and antics will seriously reduce his value. Bernier is an outside choice supply because LA have not showcased him. They chose to ride Quick all season and so Quick is arguably worth less today than he was 2 years ago.

People have suggested that Luongo's trade value is low, but given the demand for goalies and the fact that Vancouver CAN trade Schneider, Luongo's trade value is larger than many people think.

Consider the situation where the only team interested in Louie is Toronto. Burke offers Komisarek for Louie. That's it. Nothing more. This might be a worse case scenario for the Canucks. Mike Gillis just has to call up CBJ, NYI, TBL and offer up Schneider. if Schneider goes off the market, so does Luongo. Now Toronto still don't have a goalie, Burke now really feels the heat and is forced into making a really bad trade for either Thomas or Bernier. Effectively the market will go from 10 teams chasing 4 goalies to 9 teams chasing 2 goalies. The first team that moves for one of Vancouver's goalies will surely win out. The other 9 teams will be left to grasp at smoke.

This puts MG in an awesome position. Luongo's value is enormous in light of these simple market fundamentals. Give us something really valuable for Louie or we trade Schneider to someone else and you fight for the crumbs on the table.

Vancouver have complete control over the trade market for goalies and although the market for Louie might be small, the fact that they can trade Schneids makes Louie's value artificially high. I'm sure the logic of this is not lost on MG or the other 29 GMs.

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Good post OP. I agree, I think MG is in a better trade position. I'd like to add that every GM thinks that MG has to move Lou and that the better goalie is Schneids and they already know that they will have to put up an offer that MG couldn't refuse for him.

If they know that they can't pick up Lou unless they pay a high price (and he is worth it), they might be willing to pay the 'irresistible offer' for Schneids. There are a lot more tangibles with Schneids that would make sense to pay the high price (age, numbers, new contract, etc...) and it would make a blockbuster deal more reasonable to the owners.

We might just get one of those trades that makes your jaw drop... the past has proven that teams that have suffered with goaltending, they paid the price the following year if the keeper fit the criteria. I think Schneids is considered a perfect fit on every team in the hunt.

I love Schneids, but it might be better for us long term if we moved him instead. There's no disputing that Lou is one of the elite goaltenders and he is tested and true... trading Schneids might give us the pick(s), player(s) and a prospect(s) that would help the present & future of this team. I would guess that Lou's high level of play will improve or at least stay constant for an extended number of years if he had a proper top 4Dman in front of him.

Let's not forget that we've got Lack in our system too. From what I've read, he might be doing great but he would still be better off playing more minutes with the Wolves. Lack might not be ready for the NHL for a couple years and if that's true, it would be perfect timing for him to come in play a few games and slowly take over for Lou over 2-4 seasons, pending his performance. Contract wise, the timing couldn't be better.

I still don't blame Lou for last year or this year, I don't think MG does either.

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Lu will be a canuck again next season. MG will trade cory, you will all cry and blame Lu for every loss vancouver will have.

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Thomas Vokoun, Josh Harding, Michael Neuvirth, Anders Lindback, and potentially Mikka Kiprusoff and one of either Jaroslav Halak or Brian Elliott (with Jake Allen coming up) could be available. The supply is larger than you think although I still agree we have the two best options.

Gillis is maybe thinking of how Schneider coming "off" the trade block might make his value sky rocket even further. I kind of got the impression that when Columbus and Tampa did nothing to solve their goaltending problems during the season that they figured they would wait for Schneider to become available during the offseason. I think they both want him bad.

Keeping Luo wouldn't be the worst thing to happen. Sometimes I think alot of the pressure and critisim he faces is because Schneider is waiting in the wings and has played so well. If Cory was never part of our organization, we might be be giving Luo the Linden treatment right about now.

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Lu will be a canuck again next season. MG will trade cory, you will all cry and blame Lu for every loss vancouver will have.

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One could argue that it is really 10 teams and 3 goalies (Louie and Cory being a 1a or 1b thing).

But in reality, MG's phone is already ringing, teams not on Louie's list are asking for permission to speak to him to pled their case.

MG has the steering wheel firmly in hand and can drive at his own pace.

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i can see tim thomas being the highest in demand becuase he has no short list like luongo. i'm thinking chicago will take a run at him, tampa being in the same conference is another nice fit too, where as luongo isn't ( tampa ) because they wouldn't want two long term deals along with lecavliers.

gotta mention thomas in toronto to upset don cherry by adding another american lol.

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That was very clever and well thought out, great post.

It really comes down to a chess game, who bites, who plays hard to get

It will be an interesting off season for sure.

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Seabass. I deliberately left Vokoun off the list due to his age and his nightmare '12 season. Lindback, Harding and Neuvirth are still prospects, not proven #1. Admittedly Kiprosoff might be on the market but that would also mean a vacancy for calgary to fill. I take the point that 3 way deals add another dimension to the problem. Teams like SJS and MTL already have good goaltending but will be in the market for Schneids to enable them to flip him or their existing goalie. Ultimately, there are GMs who cannot afford to go into next season without a proven goalie and the one that offers up the most to Vancouver will be the only one confident to have more business cards printed up with their name and current team on it.

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I can't imagine anyone would take on Luongo's contract. If a 12 year contract is insane, a 10 contract is nearly as bad. A gm would have to be nuts to take that on.

- what would you get for Luongo? Nothing; and you'd likely have to take back some player you don't want, who has a huge contract of his own.

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shnieder needs to gooooo!!!!!! let luongo focus!!!

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