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The Strength Of Mike Gillis' Position

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#1 danaimo

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 08:46 AM

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A week has passed since Roberto Luongo said that he might waive his NTC and speculation has been rampant. Assessment of what the Canucks might get in return varies from a huge overrated, overpaid bit part coming back as a salary dump, to outrageously optimistic package of elite stars. So what is the strength of MG in this market?
This summer there are possible as many as 10 NHL teams that are looking to obtain a quality #1 starting goalie. On the supply side of the ledger there might only be 4 goalies available. In order of desirability it would be Schneider, Luongo, Thomas and maybe Bernier. Thomas has been an elite goalie for the last few years but his age, attitude and antics will seriously reduce his value. Bernier is an outside choice supply because LA have not showcased him. They chose to ride Quick all season and so Quick is arguably worth less today than he was 2 years ago.
People have suggested that Luongo's trade value is low, but given the demand for goalies and the fact that Vancouver CAN trade Schneider, Luongo's trade value is larger than many people think.
Consider the situation where the only team interested in Louie is Toronto. Burke offers Komisarek for Louie. That's it. Nothing more. This might be a worse case scenario for the Canucks. Mike Gillis just has to call up CBJ, NYI, TBL and offer up Schneider. if Schneider goes off the market, so does Luongo. Now Toronto still don't have a goalie, Burke now really feels the heat and is forced into making a really bad trade for either Thomas or Bernier. Effectively the market will go from 10 teams chasing 4 goalies to 9 teams chasing 2 goalies. The first team that moves for one of Vancouver's goalies will surely win out. The other 9 teams will be left to grasp at smoke.
This puts MG in an awesome position. Luongo's value is enormous in light of these simple market fundamentals. Give us something really valuable for Louie or we trade Schneider to someone else and you fight for the crumbs on the table.
Vancouver have complete control over the trade market for goalies and although the market for Louie might be small, the fact that they can trade Schneids makes Louie's value artificially high. I'm sure the logic of this is not lost on MG or the other 29 GMs.
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#2 Joffrey Lupul

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 08:54 AM

10 teams chasing 4, 9 teams chasing 2

I never thought of it that way. Clever
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#3 erkayloomeh

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 08:57 AM

True. Hes only dealing from a position of weakness if he thinks he is....and he likely doesnt
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#4 Ronning4center

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 09:29 AM

A week has passed since Roberto Luongo said that he might waive his NTC and speculation has been rampant. Assessment of what the Canucks might get in return varies from a huge overrated, overpaid bit part coming back as a salary dump, to outrageously optimistic package of elite stars. So what is the strength of MG in this market?
This summer there are possible as many as 10 NHL teams that are looking to obtain a quality #1 starting goalie. On the supply side of the ledger there might only be 4 goalies available. In order of desirability it would be Schneider, Luongo, Thomas and maybe Bernier. Thomas has been an elite goalie for the last few years but his age, attitude and antics will seriously reduce his value. Bernier is an outside choice supply because LA have not showcased him. They chose to ride Quick all season and so Quick is arguably worth less today than he was 2 years ago.
People have suggested that Luongo's trade value is low, but given the demand for goalies and the fact that Vancouver CAN trade Schneider, Luongo's trade value is larger than many people think.
Consider the situation where the only team interested in Louie is Toronto. Burke offers Komisarek for Louie. That's it. Nothing more. This might be a worse case scenario for the Canucks. Mike Gillis just has to call up CBJ, NYI, TBL and offer up Schneider. if Schneider goes off the market, so does Luongo. Now Toronto still don't have a goalie, Burke now really feels the heat and is forced into making a really bad trade for either Thomas or Bernier. Effectively the market will go from 10 teams chasing 4 goalies to 9 teams chasing 2 goalies. The first team that moves for one of Vancouver's goalies will surely win out. The other 9 teams will be left to grasp at smoke.
This puts MG in an awesome position. Luongo's value is enormous in light of these simple market fundamentals. Give us something really valuable for Louie or we trade Schneider to someone else and you fight for the crumbs on the table.
Vancouver have complete control over the trade market for goalies and although the market for Louie might be small, the fact that they can trade Schneids makes Louie's value artificially high. I'm sure the logic of this is not lost on MG or the other 29 GMs.


Agreed.....I can't understand how people can think Lu is worthless. Many will be surprised.
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#5 Beaken

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 09:32 AM

A week has passed since Roberto Luongo said that he might waive his NTC and speculation has been rampant. Assessment of what the Canucks might get in return varies from a huge overrated, overpaid bit part coming back as a salary dump, to outrageously optimistic package of elite stars. So what is the strength of MG in this market?
This summer there are possible as many as 10 NHL teams that are looking to obtain a quality #1 starting goalie. On the supply side of the ledger there might only be 4 goalies available. In order of desirability it would be Schneider, Luongo, Thomas and maybe Bernier. Thomas has been an elite goalie for the last few years but his age, attitude and antics will seriously reduce his value. Bernier is an outside choice supply because LA have not showcased him. They chose to ride Quick all season and so Quick is arguably worth less today than he was 2 years ago.
People have suggested that Luongo's trade value is low, but given the demand for goalies and the fact that Vancouver CAN trade Schneider, Luongo's trade value is larger than many people think.
Consider the situation where the only team interested in Louie is Toronto. Burke offers Komisarek for Louie. That's it. Nothing more. This might be a worse case scenario for the Canucks. Mike Gillis just has to call up CBJ, NYI, TBL and offer up Schneider. if Schneider goes off the market, so does Luongo. Now Toronto still don't have a goalie, Burke now really feels the heat and is forced into making a really bad trade for either Thomas or Bernier. Effectively the market will go from 10 teams chasing 4 goalies to 9 teams chasing 2 goalies. The first team that moves for one of Vancouver's goalies will surely win out. The other 9 teams will be left to grasp at smoke.
This puts MG in an awesome position. Luongo's value is enormous in light of these simple market fundamentals. Give us something really valuable for Louie or we trade Schneider to someone else and you fight for the crumbs on the table.
Vancouver have complete control over the trade market for goalies and although the market for Louie might be small, the fact that they can trade Schneids makes Louie's value artificially high. I'm sure the logic of this is not lost on MG or the other 29 GMs.



I love it, nice to see something fresh in here. Well done
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#6 lappykass

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 09:45 AM

Great post OP, excellent understanding and outlook to so many people thinking Luongo isn't worth much. Not only will trading luongo free up some cap space, he's also able to fetch us a lot considering many will be bidding for his services, and, Burke probobly has to make a move if he likes his job.
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#7 canuckelhead70

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 09:49 AM

Vokoun is in the mix and lets not forget about a possible 3 way deal envolving more players
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#8 rawkdrummer

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 09:52 AM

If we had to take on a salary dump then I'm not sure why we would trade Lou? If a trade is going to happen we can't end up with wasted cap space (salary dump) which is partially needed to resign Schneider. A prospect(s) and or draft choice(s) would perhaps be best the best return for Lou or another alternative is a good player that doesn't want to resign with their current club, for example Zach Parise.

Edited by rawkdrummer, 29 April 2012 - 09:56 AM.

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#9 tiredatwork

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 09:56 AM

A week has passed since Roberto Luongo said that he might waive his NTC and speculation has been rampant. Assessment of what the Canucks might get in return varies from a huge overrated, overpaid bit part coming back as a salary dump, to outrageously optimistic package of elite stars. So what is the strength of MG in this market?
This summer there are possible as many as 10 NHL teams that are looking to obtain a quality #1 starting goalie. On the supply side of the ledger there might only be 4 goalies available. In order of desirability it would be Schneider, Luongo, Thomas and maybe Bernier. Thomas has been an elite goalie for the last few years but his age, attitude and antics will seriously reduce his value. Bernier is an outside choice supply because LA have not showcased him. They chose to ride Quick all season and so Quick is arguably worth less today than he was 2 years ago.
People have suggested that Luongo's trade value is low, but given the demand for goalies and the fact that Vancouver CAN trade Schneider, Luongo's trade value is larger than many people think.
Consider the situation where the only team interested in Louie is Toronto. Burke offers Komisarek for Louie. That's it. Nothing more. This might be a worse case scenario for the Canucks. Mike Gillis just has to call up CBJ, NYI, TBL and offer up Schneider. if Schneider goes off the market, so does Luongo. Now Toronto still don't have a goalie, Burke now really feels the heat and is forced into making a really bad trade for either Thomas or Bernier. Effectively the market will go from 10 teams chasing 4 goalies to 9 teams chasing 2 goalies. The first team that moves for one of Vancouver's goalies will surely win out. The other 9 teams will be left to grasp at smoke.
This puts MG in an awesome position. Luongo's value is enormous in light of these simple market fundamentals. Give us something really valuable for Louie or we trade Schneider to someone else and you fight for the crumbs on the table.
Vancouver have complete control over the trade market for goalies and although the market for Louie might be small, the fact that they can trade Schneids makes Louie's value artificially high. I'm sure the logic of this is not lost on MG or the other 29 GMs.


I think every gm realizes that it's either Luongo or Schneider up for trade. Not both. Therefore if one gets traded it only goes down by 1 goalie on the market. I think you are underestimating how much a contract affects the value of a player. A 33 year old with 10 years left his contract is scary. There are teams that will take a chance on it but I honestly can't imagine gm's getting desperate to take it on. Lets hope they do but I think every gm out there recognizes that we've crossed a point of no return with Lui and Schneider isn't going anywhere.
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#10 nuck luck

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 10:06 AM

Good post OP. I agree, I think MG is in a better trade position. I'd like to add that every GM thinks that MG has to move Lou and that the better goalie is Schneids and they already know that they will have to put up an offer that MG couldn't refuse for him.

If they know that they can't pick up Lou unless they pay a high price (and he is worth it), they might be willing to pay the 'irresistible offer' for Schneids. There are a lot more tangibles with Schneids that would make sense to pay the high price (age, numbers, new contract, etc...) and it would make a blockbuster deal more reasonable to the owners.

We might just get one of those trades that makes your jaw drop... the past has proven that teams that have suffered with goaltending, they paid the price the following year if the keeper fit the criteria. I think Schneids is considered a perfect fit on every team in the hunt.

I love Schneids, but it might be better for us long term if we moved him instead. There's no disputing that Lou is one of the elite goaltenders and he is tested and true... trading Schneids might give us the pick(s), player(s) and a prospect(s) that would help the present & future of this team. I would guess that Lou's high level of play will improve or at least stay constant for an extended number of years if he had a proper top 4Dman in front of him.

Let's not forget that we've got Lack in our system too. From what I've read, he might be doing great but he would still be better off playing more minutes with the Wolves. Lack might not be ready for the NHL for a couple years and if that's true, it would be perfect timing for him to come in play a few games and slowly take over for Lou over 2-4 seasons, pending his performance. Contract wise, the timing couldn't be better.

I still don't blame Lou for last year or this year, I don't think MG does either.
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#11 Iamacanuck18

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 10:16 AM

Lu will be a canuck again next season. MG will trade cory, you will all cry and blame Lu for every loss vancouver will have.
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#12 SeaBass

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 10:27 AM

Thomas Vokoun, Josh Harding, Michael Neuvirth, Anders Lindback, and potentially Mikka Kiprusoff and one of either Jaroslav Halak or Brian Elliott (with Jake Allen coming up) could be available. The supply is larger than you think although I still agree we have the two best options.
Gillis is maybe thinking of how Schneider coming "off" the trade block might make his value sky rocket even further. I kind of got the impression that when Columbus and Tampa did nothing to solve their goaltending problems during the season that they figured they would wait for Schneider to become available during the offseason. I think they both want him bad.
Keeping Luo wouldn't be the worst thing to happen. Sometimes I think alot of the pressure and critisim he faces is because Schneider is waiting in the wings and has played so well. If Cory was never part of our organization, we might be be giving Luo the Linden treatment right about now.
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#13 Spencer Drew

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 10:56 AM

Lu will be a canuck again next season. MG will trade cory, you will all cry and blame Lu for every loss vancouver will have.


:picard: There is no way Schneider is getting traded. :sadno: -_-
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#14 The Internet Killer

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 11:15 AM

One could argue that it is really 10 teams and 3 goalies (Louie and Cory being a 1a or 1b thing).

But in reality, MG's phone is already ringing, teams not on Louie's list are asking for permission to speak to him to pled their case.

MG has the steering wheel firmly in hand and can drive at his own pace.
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#15 6string

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 11:26 AM

i can see tim thomas being the highest in demand becuase he has no short list like luongo. i'm thinking chicago will take a run at him, tampa being in the same conference is another nice fit too, where as luongo isn't ( tampa ) because they wouldn't want two long term deals along with lecavliers.

gotta mention thomas in toronto to upset don cherry by adding another american lol.
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#16 mau5trap

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 11:32 AM

That was very clever and well thought out, great post.

It really comes down to a chess game, who bites, who plays hard to get

It will be an interesting off season for sure.
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#17 danaimo

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 11:44 AM

Seabass. I deliberately left Vokoun off the list due to his age and his nightmare '12 season. Lindback, Harding and Neuvirth are still prospects, not proven #1. Admittedly Kiprosoff might be on the market but that would also mean a vacancy for calgary to fill. I take the point that 3 way deals add another dimension to the problem. Teams like SJS and MTL already have good goaltending but will be in the market for Schneids to enable them to flip him or their existing goalie. Ultimately, there are GMs who cannot afford to go into next season without a proven goalie and the one that offers up the most to Vancouver will be the only one confident to have more business cards printed up with their name and current team on it.
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#18 rkyway

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 12:18 PM

I can't imagine anyone would take on Luongo's contract. If a 12 year contract is insane, a 10 contract is nearly as bad. A gm would have to be nuts to take that on.
- what would you get for Luongo? Nothing; and you'd likely have to take back some player you don't want, who has a huge contract of his own.
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#19 Blame Obama

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 12:29 PM

shnieder needs to gooooo!!!!!! let luongo focus!!!
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#20 Everybody Hates Raymond

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 12:31 PM

shnieder needs to gooooo!!!!!! let luongo focus!!!

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#21 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 12:48 PM

What's not taken into account is that TO might simply just work with what they have.

Remember, Burkie had us keeping Cloutier for eons after the point it had become obvious that he wasn't ever going to be good.

If they believe that they can work with what they have, then all they would need is a stop-gap at best.

Imo people are believing that TO is heading the Luongo hunt because the media there would have us believe that they are heading the hunt on every potential trade and free agent acquisition possible.

But i guess crazier things have happened. It's TOTALLY TO to expensively acquire a declining asset for no real reason. Cheers.


TOML
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#22 jimmyking8888

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 02:07 PM

Not 10 team is chasing a big fat contract to payout.
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#23 yes we can nucks

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 03:19 PM

I can't imagine anyone would take on Luongo's contract. If a 12 year contract is insane, a 10 contract is nearly as bad. A gm would have to be nuts to take that on.
- what would you get for Luongo? Nothing; and you'd likely have to take back some player you don't want, who has a huge contract of his own.


It's not as bad as you think. The 12 yr contract was obviously a ploy to lower the cap hit to a reasonable (for an elite goalie) $5.3 mil. That gave more cap space for the Canucks to sign other key players. It's almost certain Luongo won't play till the end of his contract at age 43 so his team would be off the hook for his salary and cap hit.
Besides, there are escape clauses in Lu's contract. After 5 yrs, Lu can ask for a trade. At age 36 he might not like where he is playing or not like his playing time. He could be traded and his team would be off the hook for remainder of his contract.
BTW, the rumour that Lu has just asked for a trade is not likely true. His contract does not allow him to do so. More likely he has just agreed to be traded as it has been reported. But he still has to agree to where he is going.
The next escape clause is two years later, after year 7, when Lu is 38. The team will then be able to trade him without his consent. This will be a distinct possibility as Lu's abilities will probably have declined by then. If he is untradeable, he can be sent to the minors where his cap hit will not count. More than likely, Lu will choose to retire.
So, it's not that crazy for any team to trade for Luongo now. He's still playing well, and could still be good for 5 more years at a cap hit of $5.3.
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#24 Wonderine

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 03:33 PM

Let the offseason do the talking stop all the speculating. NUFF SAID
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#25 kloubek

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 03:58 PM

:picard: There is no way Schneider is getting traded. :sadno: -_-


I disagree. If, for some reason, the return on Luongo is very little then why wouldn't he keep Luongo and trade Schneider? We all know the return for Schneider would be good, and if that is the option which improves our hockey club the most then I'm sure that is would Gillis would do. I'd far sooner retain Luongo and get all sorts of great assets for Schneider than I would to get next to nothing for Luongo but keep Schneider.

With that said, I don't think it will be a big problem trading Luongo - for the points the OP mentioned. People (TSN included) seem to think it is like the whole league is against the Canucks and they are going to give the Canucks the least possible return on Luongo. But that's not really the case. Given the available goalies, Thomas and Luongo are the two that will give a club that needs goaltending the best chance to improve their team. Assuming there is more than one club in the whole league that is interested in their services, then the other GMs really have no choice but to outbid each other to obtain such a player.

Despite Luongo's long contract - it is really a relative bargain at five and a half million a year. I think GMs will see the bigger picture and not scoff TOO much at his contract.
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#26 Losing With Pride

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 04:08 PM

I think people underestimate Luongo's trade value.

You have to look no further than Carter and Richards.

End of discussion.
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#27 samurai

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 04:26 PM

A week has passed since Roberto Luongo said that he might waive his NTC and speculation has been rampant. Assessment of what the Canucks might get in return varies from a huge overrated, overpaid bit part coming back as a salary dump, to outrageously optimistic package of elite stars. So what is the strength of MG in this market?
This summer there are possible as many as 10 NHL teams that are looking to obtain a quality #1 starting goalie. On the supply side of the ledger there might only be 4 goalies available. In order of desirability it would be Schneider, Luongo, Thomas and maybe Bernier. Thomas has been an elite goalie for the last few years but his age, attitude and antics will seriously reduce his value. Bernier is an outside choice supply because LA have not showcased him. They chose to ride Quick all season and so Quick is arguably worth less today than he was 2 years ago.
People have suggested that Luongo's trade value is low, but given the demand for goalies and the fact that Vancouver CAN trade Schneider, Luongo's trade value is larger than many people think.
Consider the situation where the only team interested in Louie is Toronto. Burke offers Komisarek for Louie. That's it. Nothing more. This might be a worse case scenario for the Canucks. Mike Gillis just has to call up CBJ, NYI, TBL and offer up Schneider. if Schneider goes off the market, so does Luongo. Now Toronto still don't have a goalie, Burke now really feels the heat and is forced into making a really bad trade for either Thomas or Bernier. Effectively the market will go from 10 teams chasing 4 goalies to 9 teams chasing 2 goalies. The first team that moves for one of Vancouver's goalies will surely win out. The other 9 teams will be left to grasp at smoke.
This puts MG in an awesome position. Luongo's value is enormous in light of these simple market fundamentals. Give us something really valuable for Louie or we trade Schneider to someone else and you fight for the crumbs on the table.
Vancouver have complete control over the trade market for goalies and although the market for Louie might be small, the fact that they can trade Schneids makes Louie's value artificially high. I'm sure the logic of this is not lost on MG or the other 29 GMs.



Lu is not of 'enormous' value - the downside is contact, age, mental lapses, and the media loving to crticize him. The main point though is that the nucks do not have complete control over the market. Apparently, Lu has said he wants out so you have a bit of problem if you play the which tender gets me the best return. That doesn't work now. It seems obvious that the nucks have to trade Lu and one of the appeals of him besides his tending is that a team like Toronto can get him without giving up too much and even dump a bad contract. You can take chicago and teams like columbus out of the mix. First why make the hawks a better team, second lu is not going to want to play for a never contended team like the jackets. The trade options are actually quite limited the more you look at it.
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#28 nucklebucker

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 04:38 PM

I can't imagine anyone would take on Luongo's contract. If a 12 year contract is insane, a 10 contract is nearly as bad. A gm would have to be nuts to take that on.
- what would you get for Luongo? Nothing; and you'd likely have to take back some player you don't want, who has a huge contract of his own.


Lu's contract is not a great burden and his trade value is higher than many think. Here's why:
1. First, he is an elite goalie. The last time a goalie of his level was traded may have been the last time he was traded! They are rarely available. That means teams will want him badly.

2: As mentioned above, elite, available goalies are rare. The likelyhood that Thomas, Quick, Halak/Elliot, and Kipper each become available is very low. One, maybe two, might, that's just the reality of probability.

2. His cap hit is low for a goalie of his level so long as he stays elite.

3. Once he falls off due to age, he will either retire or can be traded. 'No one would want him' some people think but not so. He then becomes an asset for the poorer teams. Imagine last summer when a bunch of teams had to scramble to take on cap hits to make the floor. Cap floor teams are cap floor teams because they don't have money to spend. Lu would give them a 5.5 cap hit at a cap hit between 1mil and 3.38 depending on the year. That is a poor team's dream.

In other words, the team that gets him gets good cap-value now and a movable asset later.

4. The 10 years scares fans more than it scares GMs. Our attachments to the team far outlasts theirs.


Sure teams will low-ball but so long as a few teams want him it will come to bidding and they will want him pretty badly.
The question is how many teams that want him really badly will be on his list. Even if it's only 2, that's enough to drive up the price. But if there is only one and the others want him but not badly enough to pay big, the price stays low.

Can't wait to find out.
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#29 2009cupchamps

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 05:04 PM

Can someone confirm if Luongo lifts his NTC to be traded then that NTC does not transfer to the new team. Like Carter. So a team will get Luongo but can go ahead and trade him at any year in the contractq to any team they choose, (Edmonton)
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#30 wai_lai416

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 05:07 PM

i'm sure there are FARRRRRR more than 4 goalies available that can be a starter in this league. let see, Schneider, Luongo, Thomas, Bernier, probably Vokoun, Harding, one of either Halak or Elliot, maybe Kipper, Lindback, Neurvith etc etc.. there's 10 already and there's probably a few more that's escaping my head. Sure some of them isn't a BIG name like a Luongo, Schneider or a Thomas, but the blackhawk proved that you don't need a superstar elite goaltender to win, and those goalies can probably be had for a MUCH MUCH lower price.. so stop over valuing what our players can get in return.
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