Justin Trudeau Becomes Liberal Leader & Possible PM

[Wetcoaster]

Yes, yes, and like i said, i'm looking forward to the epic daily updates on all these JT-related non-events, as well as the endless repeating of 'It worked on Dion and Ignatieff.'

Time to learn that JT is not Dion or Ignatieff. JT is far more of a legit threat. Esp. in Quebec, where the Cons cannot ever make any ground. If JT sweeps Quebec, then the Cons are done, no matter what JT says about Alberta, 'root causes' or blah, blah, blah.

The Cons are scared.

Hence more attack ads. But they won't work this time, imho. Harper's continued failure in Quebec will be his ultimate undoing. But it's going to be hilarious to see how desperate the attack ads will look towards the 2015 election.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Why would they be based upon his performances thus far?

[Wetcoaster]

Good take on why the usual Con attack ad strategy is doomed to fail.

All attack ads will do is remind Canadians why they only half-heartedly voted Harper into power in the first place. Presented with an actual vote-worthy candidate, they'll abandon Harper in a heartbeat.

There might be no stopping this train, but if there is, it's to wait for Trudeau to fall on his face during some issue that Canadians actually care about. Not go 'Oh hey look! Look! Why aren't you looking?' at every time JT says boo about something totally irrelevant.

The problem is beyond attack ads, Harper might not have much left in the playbook. It's not like he'll be remembered as one of our great PM's or anything.

Harper's not going to lose to a person. Harper's going to lose to an idea. A myth. A celebrity. And it's going to be funny.

[aGENT]

I disagree with Tim Harper. I believe Canadian voters are smart enough to see through the all flash and no substance of the Justin Trudeau celebrity status given time and it is not as if we are on the eve of an election.

[Wetcoaster]

Ah, but the performance is quite good so far. He's 'so far' going to lead his party to a majority win.

Is there enough time for the Cons to come up with enough irrelevant attack ads that will knock JT off this unearned perch?

[Wetcoaster]

Yet you don't believe they'll see through the flash and no substance of the silly Con attack ads..?

[aGENT]

Nope because the ads have a basis in fact.

[ronthecivil]

Yes, yes, and like i said, i'm looking forward to the epic daily updates on all these JT-related non-events, as well as the endless repeating of 'It worked on Dion and Ignatieff.'

Time to learn that JT is not Dion or Ignatieff. JT is far more of a legit threat. Esp. in Quebec, where the Cons cannot ever make any ground. If JT sweeps Quebec, then the Cons are done, no matter what JT says about Alberta, 'root causes' or blah, blah, blah.

The Cons are scared.

Hence more attack ads. But they won't work this time, imho. Harper's continued failure in Quebec will be his ultimate undoing. But it's going to be hilarious to see how desperate the attack ads will look towards the 2015 election.

[aGENT]

Especially if our credit fueled economy that made it seem as though we avoided the world financial downturn (we didn't, we just delayed it and made it worse) that helped sweep them into power will do just as good to sweep them out.

Make no mistake GDP output of Canada got downgraded again and even if we go through a slower deleveraging of the record levels of federal, provincial, and personal debt that has rapidly expanded during the conservatives rule there's slim to no chance of Flaherty's promise of balancing the budget by the next election coming true. And slim has left the building. In fact there's a better chance that his cousin not even close is going to be showing up later.

[Wetcoaster]

Yeah but if those facts are irrelevant, unimportant or in the case of "root causes", those two plus not actually negative. Attacking them rings quite hollow. Hence, no substance.

What's next? "Justin thinks teddy bears are cute! Do we want a PM who is a big softie?!"

Give me a break

[ronthecivil]

Your take on relevance may not be of much use. It depends what resonates with voters. The first step is to have some fact based campaign and then test it out. Again Political Strategy 101.

Take the LPC, last election it was undeniably a fact that the Conservatives were found to be in contempt of Parliament ( there was a vote) but the issue did not resonate at all with the voters and after expending their time and energy on this issue in the early days of the election campaign and seeing zero return, the LPC abandoned it and the issue sank under the waves never to be heard about again.

It seemed odd to me that the CPC were not even bothering to counter the claim of contempt of Parliament but we later learned that public polls and more importantly CPC internal polling had shown that issue had absolutely zero traction - the polling showed it did not even register as a concern on any number of polls as the voters saw it as strictly a political stunt. So the CPC strategy was to ignore it rather than give it more currency by responding.

In this case Trudeau and the LPC are responding so either the LPC party strategists are incompetent ( and that is a possibility given the performance in the last election) or the issue does in fact have some traction as CPC party strategists are claiming.

[TOMapleLaughs]

I disagree with Tim Harper. I believe Canadian voters are smart enough to see through the all flash and no substance of the Justin Trudeau celebrity status given time and it is not as if we are on the eve of an election.

The problem with the comparison between the Maclain/Obama is that process was in effect stage managed as an election campaign and unlike Obama, Trudeau will have to go head to head with Harper in the political arena with no safety net. And as we have seen with his missteps thus far, it does not look good for The Young Prince making it to the throne..

These ads are just the beginning of the process if they do not work then the CPC will move on. However according to the CPC strategists this ad did have traction.

In an email sent today, senior Conservative party official Jenni Byrne says their new Trudeau attack ads are their most successful online ads ever — with more than 270,000 hits on YouTube — and that more money is needed to “make sure every Canadian sees these ads.”

“These ads have spread farther and faster than any ads we’ve ever done,” Byrne, the party’s 2011 national campaign manager, says in the email.

As I have noted this is just the start of the CPC test marketing campaign. CPC political strategists have shown an strong ability to "adapt. improvise and overcome" (to borrow the unofficial motto of the US Marines) that has been lacking with recent iterations of the LPC.

And the PQ is just beginning its anti-Justin campaign in Quebec. If the Liberals cannot recover substantially in Quebec they are consigned to the political wilderness for the foreseeable future. And the LPC will be fighting a multi-front battle there that the CPC will for the most part cede to the NDP, BQ and PQ:

Quebec’s minister for anglophone relations is referring to Justin Trudeau as “a young prince.”

Jean-François Lisée made the reference as the newly minted federal Liberal leader was visiting Quebec City Thursday.

The Parti Québécois minister says Trudeau expected to meet the leaders of the three biggest provincial parties at one gathering — as if, in Lisée’s words, Trudeau were some “young prince descending from Ottawa to meet those who might someday become his subjects.”

Trudeau will meet with the leaders of Quebec’s two biggest oppostion parties, the Liberals and the Coalition Avenir Québec.

But he will not meet with PQ Premier Pauline Marois Thursday. A spokeswoman for the premier says Marois wasn’t available Thursday, but that she’ll welcome suggestions for a future meeting.

Trudeau’s visit comes as he has become embroiled in a debate over the circumstances under which his father, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, introduced the Constitution in 1982.

A new book suggests the event was marred by improper behaviour by the Supreme Court of Canada, and Quebec’s political parties are demanding more information on the court’s role.

The younger Trudeau has shown no interest in reopening the constitutional debate; he has further irritated nationalists by suggesting that Quebec, led in 1982 by PQ founder René Lévesque, made a “choice” not to endorse the deal.

http://www.montrealg...l#ixzz2QqggPR5y

[Wetcoaster]

Like the economy that right now is being fueled through credit expansion (now up to 160 percent average debt to income) instead of wealth creation?

http://www.theglobea...article2283379/

I suppose if they can go two more years of kicking the can down the road (which I highly doubt possible) they might have a leg to stand on but if anything in the economy so much as sneezes you can bet the whole economy is going to catch a cold and that binge of credit will add a whopper of a hangover to go with it.

I suspect that will resonate with voters.

[Wetcoaster]

You're overrating 'Canadian smarts' at the poll, for starters. Lol. It's this public that has already annointed JT to the throne before he has done anything. And it's also this public that gave Harper a majority mainly because they were sick of minorities.

We'll see if the Con ads work at all (I doubt it), but honestly, beyond attack ads, what exactly do Harper's handlers have in their arsenal? 'Move on' to what? A Harper striptease? Lol.

The NDP's and ho-hum separtist party's defenses against the JT celbremachine will also be nil, imho. Layton is dead. The other parties are listless. 'We're doomed!' was tweeted sarcastically by the NDP after JT won the leadership race, but that is that really being all that sarcastic?

Quebecer hate for Harper is underrated. They voted a complete non-party NDP into official opposition status because they hate Harper so much. If they feel that they can get him out by voting for JT, then that is what they will do. This will grant them much more of a voice than if they were to throw their vote away again on the NDP or some separtist party.

Again, Harper's failures in Quebec will be his ultimate undoing. So if Justin wants to launch an attack campaign of his own in that province, it should be a pretty easy win for him. Just remind Quebecers that a vote for him is a vote that hurts the arrogant westerner.

Ontario is also an big issue for Harper, as he could lose to JT there as well. The next election could very well be over by the time it reaches Calgary. This is the norm, not the exception, for an election in this country.

[ronthecivil]

It may well resonate but it has yet to happen.

[Wetcoaster]

Tick tock tick tock...

IMF and Carney downgrade expected GDP just this week. Already balanced budget pledge is realistically out the window.

God help them if say the spring housing market decides to land with a thud. Or (the super in debt) consumer spending slows even further. Or a slowdown in China tanks commodity prices.

All three of those are already happening.

If any of those happen to be painful enough we could be in an economic down spiral of Irish like proportions.

Then it will be God help us all.

Oh, and as an added reminder, all economic indicators eventually return to mean. So if not by my predicted way, there has to be SOME way for the record lower interest rates, and more importantly, the record high levels of personal debt, to get back to normal values.

[theminister]

How will the CPC spin the country's perceived depreciation of international standing under their watch against the the LPC?

[Wetcoaster]

How will the CPC spin the country's perceived depreciation of international standing under their watch against the the LPC?

[Electro Rock]

Ok, so, like, my girlfriend??? Who's, like, the world's smartest person??? Would, ummm, you know, like, totally vote for Justin or whatever??? Because he's, like, super hawt and, like, thinks the same way she does, or something???

[theminister]

The standard tried and true political equation - we do not have to be great, just be better than the other guy.