I don't really disagree (I think, you might want to edit your post to make it clearer what you think). Certainly, the expansion draft, trades and injuries will all affect how much room there is in the lineup.
But the bottom line is that, as is almost always the case, it will be up to the player. If he comes in to training camp and looks like Stecher did this year, chances are he will be on the team. If he looks more like Larsen, probably not.