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grouse747

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About grouse747

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  1. we got up to 20%+ recently. thought that was overly generous (might have made that exact comment earlier in this thread).. using "hockey reference" site. now Canucks and Flames are 1.x% each............. and of course Canucks games haven't been very close recently someone mentioned this season being unique in that VCR needed both Calgary and Montreal to play poorly in 2nd half of the season to make playoffs. but Montreal/Calgary play each other a lot (like all Canadian Division teams) so it was hard for both to be terrible. but something else I would note: t
  2. I wasn't aware of the "BB injury trading for TT" angle... thanks for bringing that to my attention I think the TT trade was fine, even in hindsight....... I mean, we did make a good playoff push with TT. it would have been a HUGE thing around the city IF it wasn't "COVID spring". that put a pretty big damper on it.
  3. I'm thinking 3rd and 4th line and even the low-end 2nd line has a lot to do with attitude/desire/teach chemistry and less to do with talent. draft/sign more high energy but perhaps less skilled players and develop them yourselves it seems like players almost invariably play better for their old team than their new team when they are desirable players. I do like the idea of picking up talented, underachievers.... see Pete Carroll in Seattle. figures he can handle the personalities
  4. DSVII, I am really curious on this effect. have people studied it? I assume so. and I agree it can be more than one game. apparently the one game betting works really well.. and I think you hit the nail on the head as to reasoning.. players are excited with more ice time and play better. the other team has scouted for EP team. and maybe lets down some. I've seen the massive release of positive energy in other sports with changes... but then it's regression to the mean or something similar after 5 games.
  5. thank you..... as they say on Family Feud "good answer...... good answer"... and it was a good answer
  6. what happened though in those 2 last games at Winnipeg right before covid? we scored one goal very late in 2nd game. and that was it...was that COVID?..... serious question, and not meaning to call you out. I am legit curious...... this team was so inconsistent this year. whenever we gave up on them, they played well and vice-versa. beat some awesome teams and vice-versa too. wonder if you could have made money betting it (100% hindsight comment of course)
  7. I agree with the one poster...... JM got a lot of wins for the Canucks in past seasons.... would have been such a no-brainer to keep if not for TD. and I don't think we would have got that much for TD in a trade after a few sensational games. TD is a big body which takes away some of the performance risk. if he loses his confidence he will still take up a big % of the net (I have an idea for a Sumo Wrestler goalie. as I think others have. I think ESPN did an article on the idea) off-topic, but what happened to Calgary? JM was #3 pick for NHL MVP a 3rd of the way through
  8. wouldn't tons of teams love to have our core six players..... everyone knows who they are. which describes the problem perfectly. there is huge drop-off after BB, EP, BH, JTM, QH and TD. I don't think many other teams have a big a drop-off (it may or may not be after 6 players on another team).... AE or NS might not be a massive drop-off now that I think about it. but I do think many teams would love to have a top 6 like that. I think JB and TG, more JB, have failed in finding/developing beyond those top 6 players.... I will probably save it for the offseason forum, but I wonder a
  9. I'm not aware of the "Ewing effect" but I think I know what it is and I will look it up. a well respected poster on a sports betting site had a theory that you should BACK an NBA team the first game without its star player... and FADE an NBA team the first game with its star player returning.....and I AGREE with that idea . but I think it should only be a small number of games that you BACK/FADE on that basis (and you might need to tweak/define things a bit). EP has been out a long time now.
  10. by overall tenure or this season, your choice. obviously this season is kinda unique and mediocre/poor. but the team's outstanding run last year was under unique circumstances so to me they wash-out. I'd give him 6.5 on the season. maybe 7.0 overall tenure. good: developing talent. players seem to like him bad: alot of defensive lapses. maybe it's the flip side of players liking him (need more authoritative coach?).... and we get outshot badly a lot. (although I assume if I check shots for/against, we won't be far off our overall team rating). I
  11. we got to 20% or maybe slightly higher on hockey-reference.com (name?) and now back at around 7%, which I think is generous. although looked at another way, if you do "games back" like baseball or nhl, the Canucks are 2.5 games back with average 10.5 games (Montreal and Vancouver average) to go.. doesn't sound that daunting at all... I think "games back" assumes 50% win rates, which hockey doesn't have. so the 2.5 "games back" is understated. it would be easy to see that "2.5 games back" would be near impossible if average win rates were really high like 90% (of course that doesn't
  12. now that I think about it.. play the A lineup for a few games....... I do wonder if the professional athlete psyche is that you still have a chance until you are mathematically eliminated..... I know that's true, but that's not remotely realistic.
  13. looking at expanded standings.. Montreal is 5-5 last 10, which is poor. but Vancouver is interesting...... 6-3-1 last 10 games, but streak of 3 losses....... did we go unbeaten in reg time for at least 7 games recently? I knew we played well but don't remember that.... and of course, I remember the "one goal in 2 games" in Winnipeg, which I think were the last games.
  14. there is some argument with all this rest and a "fresh start" we may come out hot........ didn't that happen COVID March 2020....... and then if we play really really well then we might do well in playoffs (like 2020). I do think the one comment is right on..... someone needs to be realistic if we don't come out of the gate hot. and Canucks odds will almost assuredly go to zero. but might spike a lot with 3 straight wins out of the game. curious what the delta would be on our playoffs chances i.e. how much they would change with one/two/three/etc. wins out of the gate..
  15. basically on 650, which I am really really enjoying after switching over from 1040, they were debating when to play more young players like rathbone and juolevi....... many radio people seem to think that Canucks have some reasonable chance of making the playoffs. I'd say 10%+ I looked up a bunch of sites that give an estimation of this... this is what I found. 1.6%, 3.1%, 3.3% 3.7%, 5.3%, 9%......... these were statistical models... the one site that had odds you could be on was the 3.0% (I adjusted for the juice. or put another way that the "yes" and "no" odds didn't
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