Your number crunching skills are a little off.
Past the 3rd round = 4 teams out of 30 make it to the final 4, or 13% chance of making it past 2 rounds. Edit:Even if you consider that only 16 teams make the playoff, which shouldn't matter, that's still 25%. A lesser number than 27%.
5 out of 18 (100) point scorers made it to round 3 = or 27% chance of making it past 2 rounds.
I'll take the extra 14% chance on our side.