The Salary Cap Solution

[Tiranis]

You wrote all that and yet you couldn't even research how much of their cap each team spent, could you? Let's see:

Carolina spent 7% of the cap in 2005-2006 on goaltending. (cap at 39m)

Anaheim spent 10% of the cap in 2006-2007 on goaltending. (cap at 44m)

Detroit spent 10% of the cap in 2007-2008 on goaltending. (Did you forget Hasek?)

Pittsburgh spent 10.5% of the cap in 2008-2009 on goaltending.

Canucks are spending 13% of the cap on goaltending. So, yes, the 1.5m is clearly preventing us from winning the cup.

Or perhaps it's the terrible drafting/development and not having any players at entry level contracts that can contribute. Let's see:

Carolina had Eric Staal and Cam Ward in 2005-2006.

Anaheim had Getzlaf, Perry, etc. in 2006-2007.

Detroit had Zetterberg, Franzen, etc. in 2007-2008.

Pittsburgh had Malkin, Staal, Letang, etc. in 2008-2009.

All of those players had amazing playoffs the year their team won the Cup.

Who did Vancouver have this year? Ugh... hmm... Edler?

[Glory Days]

91-barrasso

92-barrasso

93-roy

94-richter

95-brodeur

96-roy

97-vernon

98-osgood

99-belfour

00-brodeur

01-roy

02-hasek

03-brodeur

04-khabibulin

06-ward

07-giguere

08-osgood

09-m.a. fleury

Top goalies win cups... salary cap era might be different, but its in line with the rest of the league, were seeing younger, more unproven, cheaper goalies succeed, but i think it will show itself to be an aberation... eventually these guys will be considered elite and will be paid as such.

[Rob_Zepp]

While OP has put some significant thought and effort into this, the Canuck goaltending situation is not going to change for the upcoming season so all the discussion is a tad premature. He cannot be traded (has NTC and will not waive) and unless he re-ups between now and 1 July 2010, his cap hit beyond this year for ANY team is entirely unknown until next July.

Rant on!

[voicerobot]

I do not agree with the "spend to the cap" principle. Calgary did this and it screwed them up heading into the playoffs. You need a cushion of $3-4 million before the trade deadline. That way you can pick up a player from teams that were stupid enough to spend to the cap and got into salary problems.

Depth in lots of positions, and yes 2 way play is very important. You need to get contributions from 3 lines, and your goalie has to come through when things get tight. (i.e. like Fleury bouncing back from a horrible loss against Detroit and didn't fold like a cheap umbrella, or Cloutier... )

There's more to a cup winner than people think. It's almost a magical alchemy. You have to have a lot of the right mix of players to do the job.

[VanMAn]

I would not look at anything pre cap era. Let's find a way to quantify what you are saying is a "good goalie". Because this can obviously be biased due to the fact that you are saying that they are "Good" after the fact that they've won a cup. So the best way to measure it, is to look at Vezina trophy voting in the year that the goalie won the cup. The Vezina is voted on prior to the playoffs.

I am certain that most of the goalies were not in the top 5 -10 in the year they won the cup. Hence they are "mediocre" starters. That's the type of goalie I am trying to get. Don't get me wrong. To actually win the cup, you do need TOP ELITE performances. It's just that you should take your chances on a mediocre starter giving you that performance rather than paying someone 7 mil to do it.

Volatility is a huge factor in goaltending performance. I would argue that Luongo is the best goalie in the NHL. The more games you play, the less the impact of volatiliy. Hence if you voted for the Vezina in 3 year chunks, Luongo would have won. (Roughly 200 games sample size). This just goes to show that even 82 game season isn't even enough to rid yourself of the volatility risk that comes with goaltending. (Nominated only 1 out of the 3 years) So do the math. How do you expect Luongo to play up to his worth.. in just a 4 to 7 game series? It can happen, but the odds are reduced.

[ElfShotTheFood]

Canucks are spending 13% of the cap on goaltending. So, yes, the 1.5m is clearly preventing us from winning the cup.

[The_Chicoutimi_Cucmuber]

Every goalie that makes the NHL is a top goalie so your list means jack

Luongo is over paid and over rated and we need offense the trap era has been dead for years, the Canucks are always wrong with the style they play hense we have never won a Cup yet.

[The_Chicoutimi_Cucmuber]

You wrote all that and yet you couldn't even research how much of their cap each team spent, could you? Let's see:

Carolina spent 7% of the cap in 2005-2006 on goaltending. (cap at 39m)

Anaheim spent 10% of the cap in 2006-2007 on goaltending. (cap at 44m)

Detroit spent 10% of the cap in 2007-2008 on goaltending. (Did you forget Hasek?)

Pittsburgh spent 10.5% of the cap in 2008-2009 on goaltending.

Canucks are spending 13% of the cap on goaltending. So, yes, the 1.5m is clearly preventing us from winning the cup.

Or perhaps it's the terrible drafting/development and not having any players at entry level contracts that can contribute. Let's see:

Carolina had Eric Staal and Cam Ward in 2005-2006.

Anaheim had Getzlaf, Perry, etc. in 2006-2007.

Detroit had Zetterberg, Franzen, etc. in 2007-2008.

Pittsburgh had Malkin, Staal, Letang, etc. in 2008-2009.

All of those players had amazing playoffs the year their team won the Cup.

Who did Vancouver have this year? Ugh... hmm... Edler?

[TOMapleLaughs]

You wrote all that and yet you couldn't even research how much of their cap each team spent, could you? Let's see:

Carolina spent 7% of the cap in 2005-2006 on goaltending. (cap at 39m)

Anaheim spent 10% of the cap in 2006-2007 on goaltending. (cap at 44m)

Detroit spent 10% of the cap in 2007-2008 on goaltending. (Did you forget Hasek?)

Pittsburgh spent 10.5% of the cap in 2008-2009 on goaltending.

Canucks are spending 13% of the cap on goaltending. So, yes, the 1.5m is clearly preventing us from winning the cup.

Or perhaps it's the terrible drafting/development and not having any players at entry level contracts that can contribute. Let's see:

Carolina had Eric Staal and Cam Ward in 2005-2006.

Anaheim had Getzlaf, Perry, etc. in 2006-2007.

Detroit had Zetterberg, Franzen, etc. in 2007-2008.

Pittsburgh had Malkin, Staal, Letang, etc. in 2008-2009.

All of those players had amazing playoffs the year their team won the Cup.

Who did Vancouver have this year? Ugh... hmm... Edler?

[ElfShotTheFood]

wow, possibly a record for the stupidest comment ever... i sincerly hope youre joking... is every player that makes the nhl a top player too?

good to know that patrick roy and kay whitmore were interchangable.

[jcroams]

91-barrasso

92-barrasso

93-roy

94-richter

95-brodeur

96-roy

97-vernon

98-osgood

99-belfour

00-brodeur

01-roy

02-hasek

03-brodeur

04-khabibulin

06-ward

07-giguere

08-osgood

09-m.a. fleury

Top goalies win cups... salary cap era might be different, but its in line with the rest of the league, were seeing younger, more unproven, cheaper goalies succeed, but i think it will show itself to be an aberation... eventually these guys will be considered elite and will be paid as such.

[Tomas Freeman]

While I understand what you are saying you have merely contradicted yourself. By the math, if your allstar goalie's numbers drop during the playoffs then so would the plain-jane goalies numbers drop by equal proportion. Thus giving you an even lower chance at winning the cup. Yes you did state that the plain-jane goalie would have to play as a demon but again by your own post they have ( or should have an equal % chance of bombing in the playoffs as well. ) so where does that leave you ? Right back at the start of it all again. I would say it comes down to the GM and coaches as to who has the best chance at bringing in the cup and I'd still have to say the allstar would give you that best chance salary cap or no.

[Optimist Prime]

91-barrasso

92-barrasso

93-roy

94-richter

95-brodeur

96-roy

97-vernon

98-osgood

99-belfour

00-brodeur

01-roy

02-hasek

03-brodeur

04-khabibulin

06-ward

07-giguere

08-osgood

09-m.a. fleury

Top goalies win cups... salary cap era might be different, but its in line with the rest of the league, were seeing younger, more unproven, cheaper goalies succeed, but i think it will show itself to be an aberation... eventually these guys will be considered elite and will be paid as such.

[canucksvvoot]

Very good post. I had not seen it in this way yet. The only part I disagree with you on is that Luongo still gives the Canucks the best chance to win. Two things need to happen.

1. Have a goalie who is able to get hot. We most likely have this in Schneider.

2. Use the extra cap space (~5M) to your advantage. Is harder for us to do. Who knows if we will be able to use this.

Also we have to get rid of Luongo. It's extremely unlikely Luongo gets traded although I think for the good of the Canucks longterm it would be nice to get a couple of first rounders for him. I don't think Mike Gillis believes in trading players much not to mention core, franchise players or captains with NTC's.

[mangosteens]

You have the right idea.

But instead of signing Sedins for 12 yrs, why not two of Gaborik/Hossa/Havlat/Bouwmeester till they are 40.

[Pro Canuck]

While I understand what you are saying you have merely contradicted yourself. By the math, if your allstar goalie's numbers drop during the playoffs then so would the plain-jane goalies numbers drop by equal proportion. Thus giving you an even lower chance at winning the cup. Yes you did state that the plain-jane goalie would have to play as a demon but again by your own post they have ( or should have an equal % chance of bombing in the playoffs as well. ) so where does that leave you ? Right back at the start of it all again. I would say it comes down to the GM and coaches as to who has the best chance at bringing in the cup and I'd still have to say the allstar would give you that best chance salary cap or no.

[Rob_Zepp]

Your post might fly with 95% of the people on this board, but it doesn't fly with me. There was absolutely nothing contradictory in what I wrote.

Plain Jelly Goalie can bomb just as much as Mr. Elite. But the point is that what made Mr. Elite all that great, was that he got many games to prove this. This is why there are more upsets in single elimination NCAA basketball, than there are in the NHL playoffs with 7 games. The NHL season is 82 games. So the premium for Mr. Elite over Plain Jelly Goalie is lower in the playoffs than in the regular season.

You are right. Plain Jelly Goalie and Mr. Elite can bomb just as much. They can also both go up as well proportionally. Because you've got all these upward iterations and downward iterations, if you run the math, at the end of the day, the definitive odds of Mr. Elite being better than Plain Jelly is lower in the playoffs than in the Regular season purely as a result of shorter "seasons". Hence the gap in salary needs to reflect this finding to ensure that teams that have upper end goalies aren't being screwed by this sudden switch from regular season to playoffs.

And then you add in the fact that Plain Jelly's got the help of forwards and defencemen gained from the extra cap space and I hope you see that I did not contradict myself

[VanMAn]

Here are a list of the Vezina top vote getters for the last 3 years. I did it fast so I think there maybe errors and I could not get the cap hit/salary of a couple of players in the 2006-2007 season. Of the 3 years a top 9-11: 2 have won the cup 2, 3 got to the 3rd , 9 got to the 2nd round, 13 played in the 1st round and 4 did not make the playoffs.

2007-2008 Vezina Trophy Voting

---- Goalie --------------playoff susses ---------- cap hit (salary)

1. Tim Thomas, BOS ------- 2nd round ------- 1 (1.1)

2. Steve Mason, CBJ ------- 1st round ------- .905 (.85)

3. Niklas Backstrom, MIN ------- NA ------- 3.1 (3.1)

4. Roberto Luongo, VAN ------- 2nd round ------- 6.75 (7)

5. Evgeni Nabokov, S.J. ------- 1st round ------- 5.375 (5.5)

6. Henrik Lundqvist, NYR ------- 1st round ------- 6.875 (7.75)

7. Cam Ward, CAR ------- 2nd round ------- 2.667 (2.5)

8. Miikka Kiprusoff, CGY ------- 1st round ------- 5.833 (8)

9. Tomas Vokoun, FLA ------- NA ------- 5.7 (5.5)

2007-2008 Vezina Trophy Voting

---- Goalie --------------playoff susses ---------- cap hit (salary)

1 M Brodeur, NJ ------- 1st round ------- 5.2 (5.2)

2 E Nabakov, SJ ------- 2nd round ------- 5.375 (5)

3 H Lundqvist, NYR ------- 2nd round ------- 4.25 (4.25)

4 JS Giguere, ANA ------- 1st round ------- 6 (5.5)

5 M Kiprusoft, CGY ------- 1st round ------- 3.333 (3.6)

6 N Backstrom, MIN ------- NA ------- 3.1 (3.1)

7 R Luongo, VAN ------- NA ------- 6.75 (6.5)

8 C Huet, WSH ------- 1st round ------- .63 (2.75)

9 c Price, MTL ------- 2nd round ------- 2.2 (.85)

& T Thomas, BOS ------- 1st round ------- 1.1 (1)

11 C Osgood, Det ------- Cup ------- .850 (.8)

2006-2007 Vezina Trophy Voting

---- Goalie --------------playoff susses ---------- cap hit (salary)

1 M Brodeur, NJ ------- 2nd round ------- 5.2 (5.2)

2 R Luongo, VAN ------- 2nd round ------- 6.75 (6.5)

3 M Kiprusoft, CGY ------- 1st round ------- 3.333 (3.5)

& H Lundqvist, NYR ------- 2nd round -------

5 D Hasek, Det ------- 3rd round ------- 4.05 (2.05)

6 N Backstrom, MIN ------- 1st round -------

7 R Miller, BUF ------- 3rd round ------- 2.667 (2)

8 R DiPietro, NYI ------- 1st round ------- 4.5 (4.5)

& JS Giguere, ANA ------- Cup -------

10 c Mason, NSH ------- 1st round ------- 1.25 (1.25)

This really just points out that those teams with goalies that did not end up on the top 9-11 on the Vezina voting and made the playoffs did better in reaching the 3rd and 4th rounds but not winning the cup. It also does not having much to do with salary as they vary so much. This post suffers from the lack of years of data to support any type of conclusion or future trend analysis. It is ok to talk in generalities such as it is better to lower your cap hit in signing your highest salary players so you have more cap space to sign other players to improve your chance to win the cup. I am not sure how much deep analysis or thought you need as this is pretty obvious.

[Pro Canuck]

Here are a list of the Vezina top vote getters for the last 3 years. I did it fast so I think there maybe errors and I could not get the cap hit/salary of a couple of players in the 2006-2007 season. Of the 3 years a top 9-11: 2 have won the cup 2, 3 got to the 3rd , 9 got to the 2nd round, 13 played in the 1st round and 4 did not make the playoffs.

2007-2008 Vezina Trophy Voting

---- Goalie --------------playoff susses ---------- cap hit (salary)

1. Tim Thomas, BOS ------- 2nd round ------- 1 (1.1)

2. Steve Mason, CBJ ------- 1st round ------- .905 (.85)

3. Niklas Backstrom, MIN ------- NA ------- 3.1 (3.1)

4. Roberto Luongo, VAN ------- 2nd round ------- 6.75 (7)

5. Evgeni Nabokov, S.J. ------- 1st round ------- 5.375 (5.5)

6. Henrik Lundqvist, NYR ------- 1st round ------- 6.875 (7.75)

7. Cam Ward, CAR ------- 2nd round ------- 2.667 (2.5)

8. Miikka Kiprusoff, CGY ------- 1st round ------- 5.833 (8)

9. Tomas Vokoun, FLA ------- NA ------- 5.7 (5.5)

2007-2008 Vezina Trophy Voting

---- Goalie --------------playoff susses ---------- cap hit (salary)

1 M Brodeur, NJ ------- 1st round ------- 5.2 (5.2)

2 E Nabakov, SJ ------- 2nd round ------- 5.375 (5)

3 H Lundqvist, NYR ------- 2nd round ------- 4.25 (4.25)

4 JS Giguere, ANA ------- 1st round ------- 6 (5.5)

5 M Kiprusoft, CGY ------- 1st round ------- 3.333 (3.6)

6 N Backstrom, MIN ------- NA ------- 3.1 (3.1)

7 R Luongo, VAN ------- NA ------- 6.75 (6.5)

8 C Huet, WSH ------- 1st round ------- .63 (2.75)

9 c Price, MTL ------- 2nd round ------- 2.2 (.85)

& T Thomas, BOS ------- 1st round ------- 1.1 (1)

11 C Osgood, Det ------- Cup ------- .850 (.8)

2006-2007 Vezina Trophy Voting

---- Goalie --------------playoff susses ---------- cap hit (salary)

1 M Brodeur, NJ ------- 2nd round ------- 5.2 (5.2)

2 R Luongo, VAN ------- 2nd round ------- 6.75 (6.5)

3 M Kiprusoft, CGY ------- 1st round ------- 3.333 (3.5)

& H Lundqvist, NYR ------- 2nd round -------

5 D Hasek, Det ------- 3rd round ------- 4.05 (2.05)

6 N Backstrom, MIN ------- 1st round -------

7 R Miller, BUF ------- 3rd round ------- 2.667 (2)

8 R DiPietro, NYI ------- 1st round ------- 4.5 (4.5)

& JS Giguere, ANA ------- Cup -------

10 c Mason, NSH ------- 1st round ------- 1.25 (1.25)

This really just points out that those teams with goalies that did not end up on the top 9-11 on the Vezina voting and made the playoffs did better in reaching the 3rd and 4th rounds but not winning the cup. It also does not having much to do with salary as they vary so much. This post suffers from the lack of years of data to support any type of conclusion or future trend analysis. It is ok to talk in generalities such as it is better to lower your cap hit in signing your highest salary players so you have more cap space to sign other players to improve your chance to win the cup. I am not sure how much deep analysis or thought you need as this is pretty obvious.

[Tiranis]

HE HURTS US BY TAKING UP CAP SPACE.