Too Much Speculation and Guesswork: Some Perspective

[DarthNinja]

People want to always look at the micro and not the macro. Stipulations within the new CBA and the cap-drop had a profound effect on a team that was basically spending right up to the cap and already had some key pieces in decline. Do people get this? Do people get that the owner of the team is willing to spend as much money as they can on the roster?

"The Aquilinis nixed a Kesler trade because they wanted playoff revenue"...really? Sitting in 10th place with every team ahead of them that they are competing with being healthier, deeper and playing better hockey along with having games in hand? This is laughable!

Look around at the top-6 of other teams. When a team must resort to having guys like Higgins and Hansen being locked into a top-6 role, it does not take a genius to figure out why a team cannot score.

Whats even funnier is how two months ago people were gaga for Torts after only a half season and then two months later people want him gone.

People rag on the local media but then regurgitate what comes from outside media after their team wasn't able to swindle the Canucks for their best player.

It's not bi-polar, it's outright retarded.

I'm more willing to wait until next season when the Canucks might have some serviceable prospects on their NHL roster and the cap going higher with a LOT of money to spend on top-tier UFA's or trade acquisitions. It is ok to have a bad year once in a while and get a good draft pick, especially when that bad year is more result of bad circumstance.

This fan base of late seems to be completely spoiled with a ridiculous sense of entitlement.

[37yrsncounting]

If you're looking for an exercise in futility, look no further than this website. The forums are fraught with a fan base that's confused and frustrated. And for good reason. But that angst is being manifested in some incredibly unproductive ways, especially as many of us try to piece together how our team got to this point. So there's a few issues I'd like to add some perspective to, and if you really love this team, I think it's worth some consideration. So much of the anger that I see on here is based on pure speculation and conjecture, but when you really consider many of those topics, it's absolutely pointless to become a frenzied mob over "reports" and hearsay.

Most recently, the reports have been that Aquilini is overly involved in the day-to-day running of the organization. Or heck, maybe he's just overly involved in the big decisions. We've heard that the Kesler trade was nixed just so that we could sell a few more seats during the playoffs. Too many people are treating this as a fact, and their suggestions for how the organization should proceed are based on some pretty thin evidence. It's no coincidence that most, or all, of this rumour came from Pittsburgh while they were trying to negotiate for Kesler's services. And the rumour benefits Pittsburgh, clearly, as they're attempting to make Gillis look weak, while also discouraging other teams from kicking the tires on Kesler as well. Taking this very thin evidence as a reason blaming ownership is a really pointless endeavour. Maybe it's a problem, maybe it's not. But you can't base solutions for this organization on maybes.

To touch on that same point even further, we first heard rumblings of Aquilini's over-involvement when we hired Tortorella, and again, we have very little to substantiate this as a problem. Many fans focused in on this singular notion, completely ignoring the input of the players, let alone Gillis' opinions. Maybe Gillis loved the guy, and maybe Gillis had Torts as his first pick all along. We simply don't know. Gillis, in typical fashion, appears very neutral on the subject. Extrapolating that his hand was forced, as many would have you believe, serves no real purpose. It's useless speculation until we have more information. We do know, from Gillis himself, that he has a close relationship with the owners. No more, no less.

When it comes to trades, and Gillis' role in all this, there's even more guesswork. What were the offers from Pittsburgh for Kesler? What were the offers over the past two years for Luongo? Gillis hasn't made a "big trade" (Schneider for Horvat and Luongo for Matthias and Markstrom say hello, and that's just within the past several months), do other GMs secretly hate him? Yes, some people take the "quiet" trade front to mean that other GMs have outright ostracised Mike Gillis. This is selective thinking at it's best. Ignore the fact that our team has made some very substantial trades over the years, while putting too much emphasis on whether or not, maybe, other managers like or dislike our manager. It's a high shcool mentality, and there's so little actual support for this theory that it's best left ignored.

Folks, we don't even know for sure if Kesler requested a trade. We don't know all the details around Luongo's trade - why it happened now, and many key elements of why he was on the trade block two years ago. To this day, fans still speculate about Hodgson! And the bottom line is, we simply don't have enough information to generate meaningful conclusions.

We've seen this story before, and it wasn't all that long ago. Alain Vigneault's departure was cheered by many. "Finally" they said, "NOW we'll really start to have success." And what was this based on? Hearsay and conjecture. "AV's lost the room", "He's too lax with the players", "He plays favourites", "He always gets out-coached". These are all statements that no one here can fully verify. But the facts, well, they seem to tell a very different story. While Vigneault was here, the team's struggles were very often laid at his feet. Well, now he's gone, and Gillis is the next whipping boy. Or the players on the team. Or Tortorella. You'd get more precision out of a shotgun. But regardless of scapegoats, the facts are that we had our best years as a franchise under Alain. You simply cannot argue against that, and to me, that's worth a million times more than all the speculation in the world.

The last two years have been hard for Canuck fans. For all of us. But we can't forego the facts we do know for idle speculation. Here's some of what we do know:

• Great track record under Vigneault; conclusion: sure, coaches have a shelf life, but we don't have to crap on the guy now that he's gone.
  
• Great track record under Gillis; conclusion: have some faith and give it some time.
  
• Shortened season last year due to a lockout; conclusion: wonky year, take it with a very large grain of salt.
  
• CBA uncertainty last year; conclusion: this made trades nearly impossible last year
  
• Cap drop this year; conclusion: made trades nearly impossible this year (until the deadline)
  

To me, those facts are the real reason for the team's struggles. Add in an ageing core, and a new coach/system, and we probably shouldn't be surprised by our team's struggles.

I get that it sucks when the team struggles. I hate it, you hate it, and I guarantee the organization hates it. But maybe we can handle it maturely, and deal with it as it comes. I'm sick of the "Fire Gills", "Fire Torts" (and I'm not even a fan), "Fire Aquilini", and "Trade everyone" threads. They're stupid, pointless, and based on wisps in the wind. Let's just focus on what we actually know and, most importantly, stay calm. Gillis and Aquilini didn't get where they are by being complete morons, as some of you would have us believe.

You are very correct regarding the speculations and guess work of the fans and media. However, you seem to have left out cold hard realities of what this managment group have done in the last four years

When MG took over, he said not making the playoffs is unacceptable and bold moves need to be made. Fact is, he's done a good job signing some free agents. Fact is his resigning of players to undermarket deals is coming back to haunt him with all these no trade clauses. Fact is after Gillis got fleeced on a few deals, he's become very gun shy in pulling the trigger on trades.

When MG took over, he said young player development is very important. Fact is next to Schroeder in the lineup, who else have been developed by this managment group? Fact is we had a Canadian Junior player of the year and even though this player wanted out, we decided to trade this player for a project when we clearly needed help for a playoff run. And then back to Schroeder, does he look anything near nhl ready?

MG also talked about how we were to follow the detroit model. Fact is for the past few years we have been playing a game of dump and chase, what happened to following the detroit model of puck possession.

MG talked about injecting youth into the lineup. Fact is there has been little or no youth in the lineup and what little youth they have can't crack the lineup for whatever the reason. Honestly with the canucks in disarray, its time to bring up the Jensens, Corrados, and lains to give them experience.

To keep this short. Throw in MG's mistakes and handling and treatment of Kesler, Luongo, Hodgson, Ballard, Malhotra, you have to realize that there is a level of mismanagement that fans can clearly see happening leading to all the guessing and the speculations.

[RonMexico]

No one has been preaching louder than myself that league politics have been screwin' this team for a number of years now.

I disagreed with the Tortorella hire...a guy with virtually NO knowledge of the fiercest competition this team would face in the league...from the Pacific dicvision. Those teams acquired some of the saviest coaches in the league for themselves recently...& Torts aint nearly composed, inteliigent or flexible enough to be THAT! This WAS a mistake...even for the future.

But, regardless of where we are now with this team.... I will support 'em. Instead of boos...I will always be there to call the charge of "Go Canucks Go"...until I am hoarse.

I only wish Tortorella would eat humble pie & apologize profusely to his players for his gaffs & mis-teps...& there have been some doozies. For him to pretend that the "Heritage Classic" call was right in hind-sight...serves NO purpose now...except to emphasize that he's a very detached, stubborn, ignorant & insensitive fool - who is light-years away from earning the respect of his players or peers. A 5-year contract for him was always an insane risk. Everyone knew it....& we told 'em so! That's on Gillis & the Aquilini's. The core-busting is well under-way...BUT even the rookies, who don't know any better, can all sense & see - that this coach aint all that ..nor always right ...nor are his actions completely respected by the leadership group of his players.

The assistant coaching-staff is clearly NO better. As former-players...if they cannot alter or sway this man's mind in key instances.....they are next to useless. Their track-record coaching in Tortorella's absense has been abysmal - also. The 'Nucks ain't gonna be the new Boston Bruins...nor does this family-friendly marketplace really want them to be - that. Yes - the tirhugs of the Chairman's voting-block are winning the game's political war...to stay traditionally-retro & further damage players & the game....to appease old-school markets & their greed & need for more violent entertainment. Praying that Yzerman & Sakic are forces that will...turn that tide eventually. Unfortunately, Torts is more more aligned with fossils. He is tryin' to sell everything in his own retro-fashioned-style...via F-bombs & wild-fire...to the likes of the Sedins, Hamhuis, Edler, Bieksa, Higgins, and others of dignity & quality character...in the post-Rick-Rypien era. That's a massive disconnect...& the real joke.

I would prefer my high-flying Canucks - back. I was hoping that a change in league-politics could make this so, eventually....as the Chairman's voting-block turned over. But as long as Jacob's & Co. can keep giving perks/bribes to teams that: wipe-out 7 amend fines to insiders (NJ)...seed the DPS with persons who do the same with lenient or non-suspensions to the favored...or plant ingratiated referees in the So -Cal triangle to work key games & series....well...the 'Nucks will not be prospering & will stay on the outside looking-in...a lot!

I'm choking on my words as I say this...but - only another insider can help. Burkie is that. It would be his ultimate revenge to take away Gillis' job - too.... if he even would. But he probably won't... 'cuz I believe Burkie's contempt extends to the Aquilini family as well,... who came-out ahead in the failed Gaglardi purchase & legal challenge....once backed by Nonis & Burke. More speculation here - but the league may actually be trying to get the Aquilinis to cough-up their presently lucrative franchise if in financial distress... to another prospective purchaser, who's more favorable to he old boy's business club. That may be good for the team...but a very ruthless tactic...& a despicable way to treat your partners in business...but then again - this clearly happens all of the time.

As a fan...or as a player...there's a growing-mountain of evidence indicating that the VANCOUVER CANUCKS are NOT a franchise of any favor. When they couldn't beat 'em in the board room...at least the team once had a fighting chance to beat 'em upon the ice. But - with the weight of everything conspiring to keep 'em down...this current group is now mentally & physically & maybe even morally defeated....after being sold a different bill-of-goods by the GM ....than what this particular coach is delivering. Tortorella is NOT a player's coach....NOT for this group...NOT by a long-shot.

In the meantime...whatever transpires in the drama that will take place next.....cheer for the hapless players. Refuse to become what the eastern-media-propaganda machine calls us,... bad fans. We are a great & loyal fan-base & this market will survive whatever comes along...as it did in thru the Messier era...& as they did in Toronto...OMG...pray we don't see anything as grim as THAT. But - we need to attract & keep... our players of the future. SO - bring your "Fire the GM" or "Turf Tortorella" signage - yes.... but show the players some mercy, empathy & a little sympathetic love!

Go Canucks Go! Say-it! Support 'em.... especially - when no one else will! We are the 7th man! We are ALL Canucks. And - I'm still in!

I thought the OP's point was to tell people to try to stop speculating...

[viking mama]

I thought the OP's point was to tell people to try to stop speculating...

LOL. I know.

But - I can't help it...when more often then not....I've been proved correct.

Speculation keeps me 2nd guessing what's to come next...in preparation for the hits, gaffs, & foibles that would de-rail everyone else's loyalty to their team.

I'm an invested & passionate fan - who reads almost everything pertinent to league-politics that I can unearth & get my eyes on ..& I draw some simple & direct conclusions from that. It's about uncovering the truth....which moves you forward. If this system isn't working for you....you look for all of the ways to expose the flaws in the system...so that it is either abandoned, fixed or altered. Social media can play a part in that.

Get with the program...or keep being victimized by powers that you could expose, shame & hopefully turn... so that things are better for your team. At least I'm still here...rooting for the same thing we all are...an event Stanley Cup for the Vancouver Canucks in VanCity. Alot of factors will play into achieving that goal... & I say we can collectively address 'em all together. No more heads in the sand. Speculation...can make poor men rich...or some rich men poor. But, speculations are always there.....serving a very valid purpose.

[Totes McGoats]

Ultimately it doesn't matter - The Aquilini's need to be true and considerate of their fans.

It's time to get this team back on track... it's the fans that matter, and it's the fans they keep asking for more $$$ from.

Personally, I'm never going to stop being a Canucks fan - but I'd be happy the day they stop selling out. It's time for this city, which is a hockey hot bed full of great knowledgeable fans - to make a stand and stop padding the pockets of this ownership group.

Then we'll see some change. Make them hurt where it counts.

[CroSen]

Good post OP, however here are some things I find troubling;

-they learned nothing after their first huge goaltending controversy

-everyone else is under the same salary cap and most manage to score most than the Canucks have been over the last 10 games or so

-I think it is fair to say that the Luongo trade was a knee jerk reaction based on bad pr. I hope there is more to it than that however if the REASON for the Luongo trade was just bad PR, well that is no reason to make a trade.

-Sure, succoming to the "where there's smoke there's fire" philosophy is supporting speculation, however we have now had two occasions where the owner's influence has been heavily rumored. Gillis and Torts should be free to put the best team on the ice they can. Ownership being involved often spells trouble.

-Last year we had two of the best goalies in the league. Does anyone feel we have enough to show for it? Too early to tell maybe?

-I watched last night's game and in such a key game as that, many guys simply looked uniterested. Even when the coach was talking to them. Sure, this is me just speculating however if they are already tuning out the coach then that spells more big trouble.

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

I think the thing is that most of us expected us to suck for awhile this Oct., Nov., because of the coaching change and the announced infusion of youth, which never happened.

Well we didn't suck at all really and then the December from heaven and we all thought Tort's was a genius.

It would be easier to take if we sucked out of the gate and had a legit shot at the number one pick.

Now we suck but it would take an epic fail for the rest of the season to break the bottom 5 and have more than a 10 percent chance at number one.

Next year bring on the kids and let them play, if we make the playoffs the rebuild is complete at that point, if not we have a shot at McDavid or that American Kid who was skating circles around everyone at the world juniors.

Sedins/Kesler or whoever we get for him

Shinkaruk/Horvat/Jensen

Fox/Gaunce/Kassian

Archie/Lain/Grennier or Sestito

Schroeder seems to keep getting smaller...what's up with that...so I left him off, put him in for Shinkaruk if you want.

Hamhuis/Tanev

Garrison/Beiksa or Edler

Corrado/Ekblad

Stanton

[RonMexico]

LOL. I know.

But - I can't help it...when more often then not....I've been proved correct.

Speculation keeps me 2nd guessing what's to come next...in preparation for the hits, gaffs, & foibles that would de-rail everyone else's loyalty to their team.

I'm an invested & passionate fan - who likes reads almost everything pertinent to league-politics that I can unearth & get a hold of ...& I draw some simple & direct conclusions from that. It's about uncovering the truth....which moves you forward. And if this system isn't working for you....you look for all of the ways to expose the flaws in the sytem...so that it is either: abandoned, fixed or altered. Social media can play a part in that these days.

Get with the program...or keep being victimized by powers that you could expose, shame & hopefully turn - until things are better for your team. But - at least i'm still here...rooting for the same thing we all are...an eventually Stanley Cup....for the Vancouver Canucks & VanCity. Alot of factors play into achieving that goal...and I say we can collectively address 'em. No more heads in the sand. Speculation...is what makes poor men rich...and rich men poor. But, speculation will always there.....serving a very valid purpose.

I just watch hockey as a hobby. I find the game exciting to watch. Right now, the Canucks are less exciting to watch than they have been over the past few years. The reason doesn't really matter to me as much as it obviously does to others.

[Remy]

I just watch hockey as a hobby. I find the game exciting to watch. Right now, the Canucks are less exciting to watch than they have been over the past few years. The reason doesn't really matter to me as much as it obviously does to others.

I think this is a great point. Maybe I'm in the same boat, so that's part of what caused me to create this thread. I'm not particularly happy with the on-ice product, but I don't find much purpose in examining it to death. I like to look at the big picture, and focus more on the facts, as limited as they may sometimes be. There's just so much that goes on behind closed doors that you could really drive yourself trying to guess at it, and I think that's where some of the fan frustration comes from.

I'm not against all speculation, and I certainly have my theories about certain things, but I don't see the sense in getting upset about things that are unconfirmed. That's where I tend to draw the line, and I think I'm a more even-keel fan because of it. When I read some of the threads on here, I can't help but feel this would be a helpful philosophy for some people. So I thought I'd share it.

Frankly, I don't think a re-build or re-tool is all that bad. It's no fun to lose games right now, but the draft and off season are a lot more exciting, and so is prospect development. With the bad comes some good.