What do you guys think, is this a good method for figuring out a bridge deal or longer term deal for Hughes.

[BigTramFan]

2 minutes ago, Viper007 said:

Gotta compare similar things.  Not a defenseman who's put in all situations.  You compare Barrie to somebody who only PKs who plays the same amount of minutes.  Then you compare their salaries.  That would be comparing Defensive vs Offensive players and how they get paid.

Exactly. And as I said, Heiskanen plays all situations. Hughes does not.

[Viper007]

Just now, BigTramFan said:

Exactly. And as I said, Heiskanen plays all situations. Hughes does not.

In other words, it's not comparable.  You need to compare Barrie to Larsson, that would be the equivalent.  Offense vs Defense.  Barrie got paid 4.8, Larsson 4.0.  Offense gets paid more than defense.  That's what Arrow was trying to say.

[Arrow 1983]

4 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

But you said offense always gets paid more than defense....are you now saying there's more to it than that?? Well well well...

I was comparing apples to apples (same age to same age same circumstances to same circumstance) and you wanted to compare apples to oranges So suck your well well well because you did not trap me.

 

You clearly don't understand what comparable means 

 

Jones and Barrie are not comparable. If you point Jones on Edm with McDavid, Jones would run his numbers up and Barrie would look Insignificant. See that is a comparable if you had the two players play for the same team who would fair better. 

 

 

[Arrow 1983]

1 minute ago, Viper007 said:

In other words, it's not comparable.  You need to compare Barrie to Larsson, that would be the equivalent.  Offense vs Defense.  Barrie got paid 4.8, Larsson 4.0.  Offense gets paid more than defense.  That's what Arrow was trying to say.

@BigTramFan has no clue what a comparable is 

[Viper007]

If you really want to compare, it's probably better to compare Hughes to say Morgan Rielly.  Better comparable, but even that's difficult considering its RFA vs UFA.  But Rielly is going to get more than $6M next contract, you better believe that.  I think QH is better offensively than Rielly is right now.  And QH has only been in the league for 2 seasons.

[BigTramFan]

OK whatever, we will see who gets paid more pretty soon

 

 

 

[BigTramFan]

4 minutes ago, Viper007 said:

If you really want to compare, it's probably better to compare Hughes to say Morgan Rielly.  Better comparable, but even that's difficult considering its RFA vs UFA.  But Rielly is going to get more than $6M next contract, you better believe that.  I think QH is better offensively than Rielly is right now.  And QH has only been in the league for 2 seasons.

Yeah that's a really good comparable...good work. I'm out of this "discussion"

[Viper007]

3 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

OK whatever, we will see who gets paid more pretty soon

 

 

 

I think they'll bridge Hughes so, can't compare that either lol

[aGENT]

28 minutes ago, Viper007 said:

If you really want to compare, it's probably better to compare Hughes to say Morgan Rielly.  Better comparable, but even that's difficult considering its RFA vs UFA.  But Rielly is going to get more than $6M next contract, you better believe that.  I think QH is better offensively than Rielly is right now.  And QH has only been in the league for 2 seasons.

What's Reilly making right now on his second contract...?

Edited August 22, 2021 by aGENT

[Viper007]

7 minutes ago, aGENT said:

What's Reilly making right now on his second contract...?

$5 Mill.  Like I said UFA vs RFA is different.

[aGENT]

Just now, Viper007 said:

$5 Mill.  Like I said UFA vs RFA is different.

Yes, $5mx 6 years and Reilly was an RFA when he signed that. And Hughes is an RFA now. Both second deals.

 

As you said, Hughes is probably better at the same age and there's probably a touch of inflation since 5 years ago (though Covid had minimized that). 

[Viper007]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

Yes, $5mx 6 years and Reilly was an RFA when he signed that. And Hughes is an RFA now. Both second deals.

 

As you said, Hughes is probably better at the same age and there's probably a touch of inflation since 5 years ago (though Covid had minimized that). 

I think on a 3 year deal it'll be 6.75 Mill Per.

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, Viper007 said:

I think on a 3 year deal it'll be 6.75 Mill Per.

Based on your Reilly comparable...?

 

 

[Arrow 1983]

40 minutes ago, aGENT said:

First, the 'landscape' hasn't really changed. Buying UFA years of first pair/elite D has cost a lot for a while now. How many years ago did Doughty and Karlsson sign there $11m+ deals? 

 

Second, as much as his agent would like people to think, he is not a beautiful or unique snow flake without comparables.

 

He's very talented, nobody is denying that. And he can certainly help create offense at a very high level. But other first pair D like Sergachev, McAvoy, Werenski, Chabot, Provorov, and yes Heiskenan and Makar... Are all comparables. Most with more complete games, if less offense.

I disagree the Landscape has change the players you show prove it

 

Werenski signed 2 years ago, 3 years 5 million cap hit,

Segachev 1 year ago 3 years @ 4.8 million

McAvory 2 years ago  3 years @ 4.9 million 

 

With each of these players final years at 7.0, 7.20 7.3 mill which will be the qualifying offer 

 

Chabot 3 lowest years (RFA year) are 4.0, 7.0, 7.00 average of 6 million is the Highest but on a 8 year deal. 

 

Heiskanen 4 lowest (RFA years)  5.00, 6.6, 7.0,  average  6.6 million

 

Maker Average is 7.8 mill 

 

The number for the first 3 years is starting to increase. 

 

lets look at the 4th year final year of RFA. 7.0, 7.2 and 7.3 for the past 3 

 

and for Heiskanen 8.0 mill and Maker 9.00 million, again an increase from the past 2 years. Of the past contracts Chabot got 8 million again surpassing the other 3 but on an 8 year deal. 

 

You are correct the UFA years do seem to be stagnate around that 10 mill Chabot number and 11 mill For Heiskanen and Makers = to past contracts like Doughty and Karlsson

 

But it isn't the UFA years that I or others are referring to it is the RFA years amounts that are increasing.

 

I am wondering are you saying that on a bridge deal you are valuing Hughes @ 5 mill per. I wonder this because this years contracts are not dictating that. The only thing JB could argue is that next season is technically his 3rd season. 

 

Leaving Hughes with a contract structure, 5 mill for the first year (equal to Heiskanen) 7 million for the 2nd year ( 400k above Heiskanen 6.6mill) and 7.5 million ( 500k above Heiskanen 7.0 mill) for 19.5 million over 3 years = 6.5 mill Cap Hit. Remember Heiskanen is 6.2 mill over the same period.

 

For a longer term all other yearly values from my OP would stay roughly the same. So a 6 year term would be 46.5 million or 7.75 mill cap hit, 

 

8 years would be 68.5 million or 8.5625 Cap Hit.

 

 

 

 

 

[Viper007]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Based on your Reilly comparable...?

 

 

No, just a feeling I'm getting.  Hughes already passed Reilly in offensive production with his 2 seasons, that Reilly got in 3 seasons.  So that already puts him ahead of Reilly's $5 Mill.  And comparing his 2nd contract now, Hughes rookie season has been better than Reilly's 2nd best offensive season ever.  It's hard to say considering last season was an anomaly season where you only faced 6 other teams.  Hard to make comparison on a season that will never happen again. 

[aGENT]

17 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

I disagree the Landscape has change the players you show prove it

 

Werenski signed 2 years ago, 3 years 5 million cap hit,

Segachev 1 year ago 3 years @ 4.8 million

McAvory 2 years ago  3 years @ 4.9 million 

 

With each of these players final years at 7.0, 7.20 7.3 mill which will be the qualifying offer 

 

Chabot 3 lowest years (RFA year) are 4.0, 7.0, 7.00 average of 6 million is the Highest but on a 8 year deal. 

 

Heiskanen 4 lowest (RFA years)  5.00, 6.6, 7.0,  average  6.6 million

 

Maker Average is 7.8 mill 

 

The number for the first 3 years is starting to increase. 

 

lets look at the 4th year final year of RFA. 7.0, 7.2 and 7.3 for the past 3 

 

and for Heiskanen 8.0 mill and Maker 9.00 million, again an increase from the past 2 years. Of the past contracts Chabot got 8 million again surpassing the other 3 but on an 8 year deal. 

 

You are correct the UFA years do seem to be stagnate around that 10 mill Chabot number and 11 mill For Heiskanen and Makers = to past contracts like Doughty and Karlsson

 

But it isn't the UFA years that I or others are referring to it is the RFA years amounts that are increasing.

 

I am wondering are you saying that on a bridge deal you are valuing Hughes @ 5 mill per. I wonder this because this years contracts are not dictating that. The only thing JB could argue is that next season is technically his 3rd season. 

 

Leaving Hughes with a contract structure, 5 mill for the first year (equal to Heiskanen) 7 million for the 2nd year ( 400k above Heiskanen 6.6mill) and 7.5 million ( 500k above Heiskanen 7.0 mill) for 19.5 million over 3 years = 6.5 mill Cap Hit. Remember Heiskanen is 6.2 mill over the same period.

 

For a longer term all other yearly values from my OP would stay roughly the same. So a 6 year term would be 46.5 million or 7.75 mill cap hit, 

 

8 years would be 68.5 million or 8.5625 Cap Hit.

They haven't changed much. There's a bit of inflation but Covid has largely minimized that.

 

You're trying to compare short bridge deals with long term ones buying UFA years. Most of these guys are going to go from being worth roughly the $5m-$6m'ish they are in their 3 year bridge, RFA years, to $8m-$10m (or more) UFA's.. that's why these guys are getting $6.5-$8.5 second deals. Teams are buying their $8m-$10m  UFA years and their $5-$6m RFA years and averaging that over 6-8 year terms.

Edited August 22, 2021 by aGENT

[Arrow 1983]

7 minutes ago, Viper007 said:

No, just a feeling I'm getting.  Hughes already passed Reilly in offensive production with his 2 seasons, that Reilly got in 3 seasons.  So that already puts him ahead of Reilly's $5 Mill.  And comparing his 2nd contract now, Hughes rookie season has been better than Reilly's 2nd best offensive season ever.  It's hard to say considering last season was an anomaly season where you only faced 6 other teams.  Hard to make comparison on a season that will never happen again. 

You cant compare Reilly to Hughes 

 

Reilly signed his contract in 2016-17, He is now on the last year of that contract and he shot him self in the foot with it. It is one of the most cost friendly contracts in the league ranked up there with the Mackinnon deal

Edited August 22, 2021 by Arrow 1983

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, Viper007 said:

No, just a feeling I'm getting.  Hughes already passed Reilly in offensive production with his 2 seasons, that Reilly got in 3 seasons.  So that already puts him ahead of Reilly's $5 Mill.  And comparing his 2nd contract now, Hughes rookie season has been better than Reilly's 2nd best offensive season ever.  It's hard to say considering last season was an anomaly season where you only faced 6 other teams.  Hard to make comparison on a season that will never happen again. 

That $5m was over 6 years though, not 3 and including 2 UFA years.

 

I'm not suggesting Hughes isn't better, I'm illustrating that your not comparing apples to apples. Six years is not the same as three years. UFA years are not the same as RFA.

 

 

[Viper007]

Just now, aGENT said:

That $5m was over 6 years though, not 3 and including 2 UFA years.

 

I'm not suggesting Hughes isn't better, I'm illustrating that your not comparing apples to apples. Six years is not the same as three years. UFA years are not the same as RFA.

 

 

Yes that's why I can't compare the 2.  But I feel that's he's going to get paid.  If you compare offensive production, he'll probably end up with double the production.  Does that mean if it was a 6 year deal, he should get $10 Mill?  Nope.  Can't compare again.  I just have a feeling he's gonna get paid between 6-7 Mill.  Let's just hope he plays better than the contract given and we view it as a bargain.  That's what the team needs.

[aGENT]

Just now, Viper007 said:

Yes that's why I can't compare the 2.  But I feel that's he's going to get paid.  If you compare offensive production, he'll probably end up with double the production.  Does that mean if it was a 6 year deal, he should get $10 Mill?  Nope.  Can't compare again.  I just have a feeling he's gonna get paid between 6-7 Mill.  Let's just hope he plays better than the contract given and we view it as a bargain.  That's what the team needs.

If he's getting $6-7m+, it should correspondingly be 5+ year term.