Odds of playing at least 200 nhl games by draft round

[Ray_Cathode]

On 11/18/2022 at 3:19 PM, theo5789 said:

I understand the challenge of getting the data. But I just think it's another factor to think about. A lot of draft picks are wasted on nobodies, but say those guys rights are done as a draft pick and you find some player to "replace" that pick lost (and especially if they become someone of significance), then it's not as concerning as say simply trading the pick and still finding that youthful depth for whatever role.

 

For example, we find some young guy like Aman who's now playing a decent role for the team. Then who cares if we traded a 4th round pick that may never pan out like 4 years ago.

 

I mean if we want to have denominators, it could be free agents signed under 21 years old, then between 22-23, etc. However you want to break it down.

Nobody knows who the 'nobodies' are, that is why the the draft is about scouting and player development

and having more chances in the draft Scouting staffs that are better at seeing the forward potential of a draft pick help teams succeed, teams that have great development (like Detroit that selected and developed Zetterberg and Datsyuk out of a sixth and a seventh round picks and invested the team to bring them on were rewarded with being a Stanley contender and champion for many years. It is why Boston is where it is now, and the Canucks are where they are now after there not being a whit between them but Colin Campbell and his control over the officials.

 

If you are looking for certainty, you won't find it in finding talent among hockey players. Lots of teams have tried the shortcut for that by sigining high priced free agents only to have them crash and burn and waste their cap for yeqrs.

[theo5789]

1 hour ago, Ray_Cathode said:

Nobody knows who the 'nobodies' are, that is why the the draft is about scouting and player development

and having more chances in the draft Scouting staffs that are better at seeing the forward potential of a draft pick help teams succeed, teams that have great development (like Detroit that selected and developed Zetterberg and Datsyuk out of a sixth and a seventh round picks and invested the team to bring them on were rewarded with being a Stanley contender and champion for many years. It is why Boston is where it is now, and the Canucks are where they are now after there not being a whit between them but Colin Campbell and his control over the officials.

 

If you are looking for certainty, you won't find it in finding talent among hockey players. Lots of teams have tried the shortcut for that by sigining high priced free agents only to have them crash and burn and waste their cap for yeqrs.

The era of Datsyuk and Zetterberg was when they had an advantage in scouting when no one else was really doing it. The playing field is much more levelled off now compared to 20+ years ago.

 

Boston had more bullets in the 2015 draft and picked 3 duds missing out on some pretty big stars picked not soon after. Yes they did make some excellent picks before and after as well and some times teams just get lucky rather than having some superior scouting system. But the point is even if they had some superior scouting, the 2015 draft is an example that not necessarily having more bullets means you'll hit your targets.

 

My point isn't about signing high priced free agents, but suggesting that some teams signing young players that were passed over in the draft a couple of times could be viewed as adding "free draft picks" in the later rounds mold. And I think they should be factors in seeing how a team adds young players to their roster that hopefully play 200+ NHL games.