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Finally The Fiscal Correction might take place


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#1 Harbinger

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 03:32 PM

Looks like there will be no vote by monday which could be fantastic news. Let the taxes raise and the cuts begin. This is what they should have been looking forward to the whole time. You can tell it's a good idea because both the Dems and the Republicans both hate it equally.
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#2 nuckin_futz

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 03:41 PM

Plunging the world's largest economy (and our largest trading partner) back into recession is hardly fantastic news.

They're close to a deal. Income tax will only be going up (back to the rates during the 90's) on households with income +450,000 and individuals with income +400,000. On this much they have agreed.

I love how all those donkeys (Boehner, Reid, McConnell, Pelsoi) have to have daily press conferences. Be a shame when that's over. The volatility it's brought to the markets has been much appreciated.
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#3 Harbinger

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 03:49 PM

Plunging the world's largest economy (and our largest trading partner) back into recession is hardly fantastic news.

They're close to a deal. Income tax will only be going up (back to the rates during the 90's) on households with income +450,000 and individuals with income +400,000. On this much they have agreed.

I love how all those donkeys (Boehner, Reid, McConnell, Pelsoi) have to have daily press conferences. Be a shame when that's over. The volatility it's brought to the markets has been much appreciated.



Let the markets take a hit, It'll adjust. That's what everyone always says. The markets will take care of themselves. That's what needs to happen. Volatility in the market can be taken care of it they want to. Make all transactions grace for 7 business days. That will remove a lot of speculators and remove a lot of volatility. You have to hold onto anything you buy for a minimum time. Get the casino antics out of the game.

Edited by Harbinger, 31 December 2012 - 03:50 PM.

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#4 Harbinger

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 04:04 PM

http://news.yahoo.co...--politics.html
House won't vote before midnight on 'cliff' deal


WASHINGTON (AP) — The House will miss the midnight Monday deadline lawmakers set for voting to avoid the "fiscal cliff."
House Republicans notified lawmakers that the chamber will vote Monday evening on other bills. They say that will be their only votes of the day.
President Barack Obama and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said Monday they are near a deal to avoid wide-ranging tax increases and spending cuts — the fiscal cliff — that take effect with the new year.
Both men said they were still bargaining over whether — and how — to avoid $109 billion in cuts to defense and domestic programs that take effect on Wednesday.
It remained unclear whether the Senate would vote Monday.
Congress could pass later legislation retroactively blocking the tax hikes and spending cuts.
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#5 nuckin_futz

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 04:17 PM

Let the markets take a hit, It'll adjust. That's what everyone always says. The markets will take care of themselves. That's what needs to happen. Volatility in the market can be taken care of it they want to. Make all transactions grace for 7 business days. That will remove a lot of speculators and remove a lot of volatility. You have to hold onto anything you buy for a minimum time. Get the casino antics out of the game.


The market has been artificially supported by the Fed for more than three years. They have no interest in seeing it fail.

They have taken care of volatility, they have effectively killed it. The volatility index is laying in the gutter. Volatility is a healthy thing. It weeds out the weak hands and aids in true price discovery.

A minimum holding period of 7 days? With all due respect that is absurd. You would kill the industry overnight. Volume would drop by +95%. There would effectively be no bids or offers. When your investment in XYZ mutual fund (which would be holding for more than 7 days I presume) went to sell it's position the slippage it would receive would curl your hair.

The more participants/volume in the market the fairer the prices are.

As for the casino antics. The stock market is nothing but a casino. That's the way it's set up. You want to invest, that's what GIC's are for.

Edited by nuckin_futz, 31 December 2012 - 04:20 PM.

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#6 nuckin_futz

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 04:19 PM

http://news.yahoo.co...--politics.html
House won't vote before midnight on 'cliff' deal


WASHINGTON (AP) — The House will miss the midnight Monday deadline lawmakers set for voting to avoid the "fiscal cliff."
House Republicans notified lawmakers that the chamber will vote Monday evening on other bills. They say that will be their only votes of the day.


Both senators Corker and Kyle have said there will be a vote tonight on the fiscal cliff package.
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#7 Electro Rock

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 04:24 PM

This might have helped if it had happened in 1996 or something, otherwise its just a matter of delaying the inevitable.
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#8 Harbinger

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 04:27 PM

The market has been artificially supported by the Fed for more than three years. They have no interest in seeing it fail.

They have taken care of volatility, they have effectively killed it. The volatility index is laying in the gutter. Volatility is a healthy thing. It's weeds out the weak hands and aids in true price discovery.

A minimum holding period of 7 days? With all due respect that is absurd. You would kill the industry overnight. Volume would drop by +95%. There would effectively be no bids or offers. When your investment in XYZ mutual fund (which would be holding for more than 7 days I presume) went to sell it's position the slippage it would receive would curl your hair.

The more participants/volume in the market the fairer the prices are.

As for the casino antics. The stock market is nothing but a casino. That's the way it's set up. You want to invest, that's what GIC's are for.



It would all just sort itself out. People would get out of the market and it would become the long term tool it was supposed to be rather than the short term tool it has become. Volume isn't important in the market. Stability is what is important in the market. The more stability the more effective it would become.

If a person told you they were taking their savings to the Casino so they could invest it in Black Jack you would laugh at them. The same thing is happening in the markets these days. People are stuck in the instant gratification racquet, only they think they are making better decisions because they are doing it in the Market with poker chips called their life savings. Let the Markets become a smaller percentage of the economy and allow working be the driving factor for it.
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#9 key2thecup

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 04:30 PM

It doesn't matter........ It doesn't matter if you "cut" proposed baseline increases in the budgets, it doesn't matter if you "raise" taxes.


The US is trapped in a black-hole of debt.
$17 TRILLION conservative figure not including the derivatives debt.

Edited by key2thecup, 31 December 2012 - 04:30 PM.

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#10 Harbinger

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 04:32 PM

It doesn't matter........ It doesn't matter if you "cut" proposed baseline increases in the budgets, it doesn't matter if you "raise" taxes.


The US is trapped in a black-hole of debt.
$17 TRILLION conservative figure not including the derivatives debt.



You are right. This should only be the beginning.
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#11 The Hornet

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 04:46 PM

'Merica
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#12 Aleksandr Pistoletov

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 04:57 PM

No worries guys, they've got two months past this utterly hyped sensationalist "fiscal cliff" until the threat of defaulting looms.

Plenty of time for Congress to figure out ways to carve a finer slice of the US's debt pie as profit amongst themselves and their friends.

Edited by zaibatsu, 31 December 2012 - 04:57 PM.

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#13 nuckin_futz

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 05:07 PM

It would all just sort itself out. People would get out of the market and it would become the long term tool it was supposed to be rather than the short term tool it has become. Volume isn't important in the market. Stability is what is important in the market. The more stability the more effective it would become.

If a person told you they were taking their savings to the Casino so they could invest it in Black Jack you would laugh at them. The same thing is happening in the markets these days. People are stuck in the instant gratification racquet, only they think they are making better decisions because they are doing it in the Market with poker chips called their life savings. Let the Markets become a smaller percentage of the economy and allow working be the driving factor for it.


They tried that in 08-09. They didn't much like how it chose to sort itself out. IRA's/RRSP's chopped in half, soaring unemployment etc. No one is interested in taking their medicine. Least of all world governments.

As far as volume, there are only two things that matter in the market. Price and volume. Thinking volume doesn't matter is erroneous.
Lack of volume leads to dramatic price swings. Without volume the stability you crave is non existent.
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#14 theminister

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 06:47 PM

It doesn't matter........ It doesn't matter if you "cut" proposed baseline increases in the budgets, it doesn't matter if you "raise" taxes.


The US is trapped in a black-hole of debt.
$17 TRILLION conservative figure not including the derivatives debt.


Once the comptroller starts adding in indemnities the figure gets closer to 100 trillion.

All the while they have been deflating the value of the US dollar at the same time by giving away trillions to international banks.

They should just sell Texas to Dubai. Problem solved.

/ Seriously though, the break-up is coming.
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#15 Squirrels.Gone.Wild

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 07:03 PM

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BREAKING: Senate Democratic aide: White House and GOP reach deal on fiscal cliff.



The Senate will most likely vote tonight. The House has already left and won't vote until after the deadline.

Edited by Squirrels.Gone.Wild, 31 December 2012 - 07:30 PM.

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#16 key2thecup

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 09:23 PM

Once the comptroller starts adding in indemnities the figure gets closer to 100 trillion.

All the while they have been deflating the value of the US dollar at the same time by giving away trillions to international banks.

They should just sell Texas to Dubai. Problem solved.

/ Seriously though, the break-up is coming.


Yeah, I don't think Dubai even has enough $ to do that.
Break up? I don't know think so.

If anything they will hyper inflate the currency and pay off the debts to other nations/corporations whatever, the rest will be written off. Millions will die from starvation (in the US alone), the world would go into a full fledged depression, Canada would be hit severely. There will be abject poverty for the masses with a very few remaining wealthy. It would take decades to recover.

Edited by key2thecup, 31 December 2012 - 09:24 PM.

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#17 theminister

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 11:28 PM

Yeah, I don't think Dubai even has enough $ to do that.
Break up? I don't know think so.

If anything they will hyper inflate the currency and pay off the debts to other nations/corporations whatever, the rest will be written off. Millions will die from starvation (in the US alone), the world would go into a full fledged depression, Canada would be hit severely. There will be abject poverty for the masses with a very few remaining wealthy. It would take decades to recover.


You describe pretty much the scenario that I think will need to happen to make it a forgone conclusion.

The monolith that is the US government can't keep this up, methinks.

In times of structural distress empires tend to either expand or break up.
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#18 Aleksandr Pistoletov

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 12:19 AM

You describe pretty much the scenario that I think will need to happen to make it a forgone conclusion.

The monolith that is the US government can't keep this up, methinks.

In times of structural distress empires tend to either expand or break up.

The US already expanded it's empire in a more 21st century way. Now, it's beginning a slow and painful fiscal implosion seen also by the last few major empires.
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#19 Buddhas Hand

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 02:02 AM

You describe pretty much the scenario that I think will need to happen to make it a forgone conclusion.

The monolith that is the US government can't keep this up, methinks.

In times of structural distress empires tend to either expand or break up.


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Edited by The Ratiocinator, 01 January 2013 - 02:03 AM.

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#20 Harbinger

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 04:36 PM

Praying that they postpone till its too late.


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#21 Electro Rock

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 04:44 PM

Crisis
Collapse
Reorganization

Orwell...
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#22 Harbinger

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 04:50 PM

Crisis
Collapse
Reorganization

Orwell...

isn't this how every major improvement in society is pretty much done. Calamity, destruction, then adjustment.
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#23 canuck_trevor16

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 05:01 PM

Nothing good will happen.......the Republican will reject and amend the bill.........they seem to reject anything the democratic do??? health care bill, etc?????
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#24 Wetcoaster

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 09:36 PM

The Republicans finally saw the handwriting on the wall and backed down in their latest game of chicken with the White House:


Manoeuvred into a political corner, U.S. House Republicans abandoned demands for changes in emergency legislation to prevent widespread tax increases and painful across-the-board spending cuts and cleared the way for a final, climactic New Year’s night vote.


The decision capped a day of intense political calculations for conservatives who control the House.


They had to weigh their desire to cut spending against the fear that the Senate would refuse to consider any changes they made in the “fiscal cliff” bill, sending it into limbo and saddling Republicans with the blame for a whopping middle-class tax increase.


Adding to the GOP discomfort, one Senate Democratic leadership aide said Majority Leader Harry Reid would “absolutely not take up the bill” if the House changed it. The aide spoke on condition of anonymity, citing a requirement to keep internal deliberations private.


The legislation cleared the Senate hours earlier on a lopsided pre-dawn vote of 89-8. Administration officials met at the White House to monitor its progress.


‘THE BEST PATH FORWARD’


“I do not support the bill. We are looking, though, for the best path forward,” House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, a Virginia Republican, declared after one meeting of the party’s rank-and-file.


Despite Cantor’s remarks, Speaker John Boehner took no public position on the bill as he sought to negotiate a conclusion to the final crisis of a two-year term full of them.


It wasn’t the first time that the Tea Party-infused House Republican majority has rebelled against the party establishment since the GOP took control of the chamber 24 months ago.


But with the two-year term set to end Thursday at noon, it was likely the last.


And, as was true in earlier cases of a threatened default and government shutdown, the brinkmanship came on a matter of economic urgency, leaving the party open to a public backlash if tax increases do take effect on tens of millions of Americans.


After intensive deliberations — a pair of rank-and-file meetings sandwiched around a leadership session, the GOP high command had not yet settled on a course of action by early evening.


Instead, they canvassed Republicans to see if they wanted simply to vote on the Senate measure, or whether they wanted first to try and add spending cuts totalling about $300 billion over a decade.


The cuts had passed the House twice earlier in the year but are opposed by most if not all Senate Democrats.


“We’ve gone as far as we can go,” said Jack Kingston, a Georgia Republican.


“I think people are ready to bring this to a conclusion, and know we have a whole year ahead of us” for additional fights over spending.


THE FISCAL CLIFF


The economic as well as political stakes were considerable.


Economists have warned that without action by Congress, the tax increases and spending cuts that technically took effect with the turn of the new year at midnight could send the economy into recession.


Even with enactment of the legislation, taxes are on the rise for millions.


A two-percentage-point temporary cut in the payroll tax, originally enacted two years ago to stimulate the economy, expired with the end of 2012.


Neither Obama nor Republicans have made a significant effort to extend it.


The Senate-passed bill was designed to prevent that while providing for tax increases at upper incomes, as Obama campaigned for in his successful bid for a second term.


It would also prevent an expiration of extended unemployment benefits for an estimated two million jobless, block a 27-per-cent cut in fees for doctors who treat Medicare patients, stop a $900 pay increase for lawmakers from taking effect in March and head off a threatened spike in milk prices.


At the same time, it would stop $24 billion in spending cuts set to take effect over the next two months, although only about half of that total would be offset with spending reductions elsewhere in the budget.


The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said the measure would add nearly $4 trillion over a decade to federal deficits, a calculation that assumed taxes would otherwise have risen on taxpayers at all income levels.


There was little or no evident concern among Republicans on that point, presumably because of their belief that tax cuts pay for themselves by expanding economic growth and do not cause deficits to rise.


STICKING POINT


The relative paucity of spending cuts was a sticking point with many House Republicans.


Among other items, the extension of unemployment benefits costs $30 billion, and is not offset by savings elsewhere.


“I personally hate it,” said Republican John Campbell of California.


“The speaker the day after the election said we would give on taxes and we have.


“But we wanted spending cuts. This bill has spending increases. Are you kidding me? So we get tax increases and spending increases? Come on.”


House Democrats met privately with Biden for their review of the measure, and the party’s leader in House, Nancy Pelosi, said afterward that Boehner should permit a vote.


“That is what we expect. That is what the American people deserve,” she said.

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Fiscal+cliff+Republicans+drop+spending+demands+clear+11th+hour+vote/7763322/story.html#ixzz2Gn0nN0t9

And now the bill is on its way for President Obama's signature.


Legislation to block the "fiscal cliff" is headed to the White House for President Barack Obama's signature. The bill will avoid, for now, the major tax increases and government spending cuts that had been scheduled to take effect with the new year.


Final approval came in the House on New Year's Night. The vote was 257 to 167.


The Senate passed the bill less than 24 hours earlier.


The measure raises tax rates on incomes over $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for couples, a victory for Obama.


It also extends expiring unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless, prevents a cut in fees for doctors who treat Medicare patients and cancels a $900 pay increase due to lawmakers in March.


Another provision is designed to prevent a spike in milk prices.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/House+joins+Senate+voting+clear+fiscal+cliff+bill/7763413/story.html#ixzz2Gn1ISuT0
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#25 Harbinger

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 01:05 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said Senate-passed legislation to avert the "fiscal cliff" would add nearly $4 trillion to federal deficits over a decade, largely because it would extend low tax rates for almost all Americans.
The congressional scorekeeper's analysis was released as a number of Republicans in the House of Representatives voiced opposition to the bill, and considered amending it with deeper spending cuts.
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and others complained the bill's spending cuts would do little to curb trillion-dollar deficits.
Senate-passed plan extends decade-old Bush-era tax rates for individuals earning up to $400,000 and couples earning up to $450,000 - nearly 99 percent of U.S. taxpayers.
But the non-partisan CBO compared the Senate plan's revenue and expenditure changes to laws that are currently in force, which call for $600 billion in tax hikes and automatic spending cuts in 2013 alone - effectively a dive off the fiscal cliff.
With Congress feverishly working to avoid the fiscal cliff in recent weeks, many Washington policymakers had viewed the current-law budget "baseline" as unlikely to be maintained.
Compared to an alternative CBO scenario in which Congress extends all expiring tax provisions and turns off automatic spending cuts slated to start taking effect this week, the Senate plan achieves minimal deficit reduction in the early years.
Over 10 years, deficits under the Senate plan would be $3.75 trillion less than permanently extending all of the tax and spending policies in the alternative scenario. That is largely because the CBO expects that remaining on an unsustainable fiscal path would severely constrict economic growth later in the decade, holding back revenue growth and keeping outlays higher.
FISCAL 2013 EFFECTS
By going over the fiscal cliff, the CBO had previously forecast that the higher taxes and lower spending would slash the fiscal 2013 U.S. budget deficit by more than half, to $641 billion from $1.1 trillion the prior year.
But in its analysis of the Senate-passed plan, the CBO said fiscal 2013 revenues would be $280 billion lower and spending $50 billion higher, resulting in a $330 billion deficit increase, for a total deficit of around $971 billion.
Under the CBO's keep-taxes-unchanged scenario, the deficit would be $1.04 trillion for fiscal 2013.
None of the CBO's analyses takes into consideration possible future spending cuts and reforms to federal health care and retirement programs that Congress might make in a new budget battle emerging around mid-February over the next increase in the U.S. debt limit
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#26 jmfaminoff

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 02:57 PM

Looks like there will be no vote by monday which could be fantastic news. Let the taxes raise and the cuts begin. This is what they should have been looking forward to the whole time. You can tell it's a good idea because both the Dems and the Republicans both hate it equally.

The bill was a punt to give time for the new House and Senate to adjudicate. That is why it passed. The problem within two months is that the debt ceiling limit will be reached, and these issues will be up for a vote again.
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#27 jmfaminoff

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 03:02 PM

The US already expanded it's empire in a more 21st century way. Now, it's beginning a slow and painful fiscal implosion seen also by the last few major empires.

The US economy has always been about smoke and mirrors. The US is also the largest holder of its debt. It holds about 2/3rds or about 10-trillion dollars.
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