BigTramFan Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) Everyone knows it. TBL are in cap trouble. Cap hell. Worse than cap hell! I'm gonna assume that NONE of their NTC and NMC players will accept a trade to another team. Why would they? They earned the clause in their contract and they will want to stay with a contending team, even more so if they win the CUP. The only players that can be traded are: Point Killorn (m-NTC) Coleman Paquette Goodrow I can't see them trading Point - he's too good. Coleman, Paquette, Goodrow are on very friendly contracts and probably can't be replaced for better value, so they won't be traded either. Killorn is definitely getting traded. This leaves them with $9.78m in cap space to sign at least 8 players to fill their roster. All 3 of their big name RFA's (Cirelli, Sergachev, Cernak) are going to cost them at least $4m each. They really cannot afford to pay any one of them that much, since it won't leave enough space to fill the rest of their roster. I believe that TBL will look to trade these big name RFAs in return for some very good NHL players on retained salaries, so that they can fill their roster with talent at very low cost. It has me wondering whether VAN has some assets that TBL could desire. What TBL need most are Dmen and bottom 6 players. They will also be looking for picks and prospects. Would this trade appeal?... To TBL: Beagle (50% retained) - $1.5m Rafferty (50% retained) - $350k Woo 2021 2nd round pick To VAN: Cernak (already signed to $4m x 4 years by TBL before trading) For TBL they get some serious PK and FO firepower in Beagle for their bottom 6, plus Rafferty in their defense mix (all for only $1.85m). Woo stays in the minors and is ready in 1-2 years. Plus a 2nd rounder. For VAN we get a cost controlled young Dman with mobility and size. Perfect complement to Hughes. Replacement for Tanev. Will be interested to hear if you think we're paying too much, or whether you think TBL laughs and hangs up the phone... Edited September 28, 2020 by BigTramFan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superlative Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) Just wait til day 1 of free agency and offer sheet him you only give up a 2nd. If you are trading beagle for cap just swap him out for eriksson and change from tampa to a rebuilding team. Using 50 percent retention on rafferty and beagle does nothing for us. Edited September 28, 2020 by Superlative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted September 28, 2020 Author Share Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Superlative said: Just wait til day 1 of free agency and offer sheet him you only give up a 2nd. If you are trading beagle for cap just swap him out for eriksson and change from tampa to a rebuilding team. Using 50 percent retention on rafferty and beagle does nothing for us. Offer sheets haven't worked for years. I would be keen to avoid an offer sheet to keep a good trading relationship with Tampa, because they will be moving out more assets in the future. Also you can bet that TBL have already moved Cernak before they risk losing him to an offer sheet. Finally, we're not retaining on Beagle and Rafferty for the sake of VAN, it is to generate the value to get Cernak off their hands. My sense is that Cernak could be a core piece for VAN. Edited September 28, 2020 by BigTramFan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Superlative said: Just wait til day 1 of free agency and offer sheet him you only give up a 2nd. If you are trading beagle for cap just swap him out for eriksson and change from tampa to a rebuilding team. Boston traded Hamilton in part because they knew Chiarelli was going to offer-sheet him. They got a better package our of Calgary than the offer sheet would have brought back. Could be a similar reasoning here if they feel Cernak is not willing to do a bridge. If they feel they can't retain Cernak then would think that they are going to try and trade him for a 1st round pick. Edited September 28, 2020 by mll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, BigTramFan said: Offer sheets haven't worked for years. I would be keen to avoid an offer sheet to keep a good trading relationship with Tampa, because they will be moving out more assets in the future. Also you can bet that TBL have already moved Cernak before they risk losing him to an offer sheet. Finally, we're not retaining on Beagle and Rafferty for the sake of VAN, it is to generate the value to get Cernak off their hands. Other than Maroon all of Tampa's forwards are under team control for next season (RFA or signed). They also have Fs like Joseph, who has already played NHL games for them, that will become waiver eligible. I don't see why they would want Beagle when they already have players on the roster or in the system. On their current roster they only have 5 Ds under team control. Hedman and McDonagh signed long term. Coburn for 1 more year at 1.7M and RFAs Sergachev and Cernak. I think they'll trade Killorn and find a way to bring Cernak back even if it means forcing an NTC to waive. They'll likely try and find someone for Coburn. If Cernak is on the market probably quite a few teams would be in the mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeyking Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 I Like how everyone talk about cernak and no love for sergachev, this is a guy who still have top level pairing potential,while cernak is mostly likely will be a 2nd pairing guy or a overpay 3rd pair Sergachev is a guy who can replace both Elder and Myers Future pair hugh sergachev for the next 5 + year Van Sergachev 4-5m for 4-5y Tmp Jack rathbone Jordie Benn 50%retained 2nd 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted September 28, 2020 Author Share Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, mll said: Other than Maroon all of Tampa's forwards are under team control for next season (RFA or signed). They also have Fs like Joseph, who has already played NHL games for them, that will become waiver eligible. I don't see why they would want Beagle when they already have players on the roster or in the system. On their current roster they only have 5 Ds under team control. Hedman and McDonagh signed long term. Coburn for 1 more year at 1.7M and RFAs Sergachev and Cernak. I think they'll trade Killorn and find a way to bring Cernak back even if it means forcing an NTC to waive. They'll likely try and find someone for Coburn. If Cernak is on the market probably quite a few teams would be in the mix. Coburn has NTC, don't think he would agree to move, as he only has one season left, and then may retire. Let's say they manage to low ball Cernak into a $3m bridge contract and they have traded Killorn for space. They only have $6.8m to sign another 7 players to their roster. Can't see them flooding their roster with 7 guys on ELCs. Edited September 28, 2020 by BigTramFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted September 28, 2020 Author Share Posted September 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Monkeyking said: I Like how everyone talk about cernak and no love for sergachev, this is a guy who still have top level pairing potential,while cernak is mostly likely will be a 2nd pairing guy or a overpay 3rd pair Sergachev is a guy who can replace both Elder and Myers Future pair hugh sergachev for the next 5 + year Van Sergachev 4-5m for 4-5y Tmp Jack rathbone Jordie Benn 50%retained 2nd 2021 Only because I don't think we can afford to trade for Sergachev! My guess is that he gets traded to the Blues for some serious assets, which will include some great players on retained salaries so that the effective cost to TBL is very low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Cernak is a great target for us and most teams in the league - TB might have cap issues but at least their drafting keeps them in cap trouble and allows them to recycle assets better then anyone really. No team in the league has done more with less then TB the past 5 plus years. Cirelli, Point, Gourde, Paquette, Cernak, and they still have Foote and others waiting for their turn. Sergachev was for Droin but yet another solid move. What can they get for a couple of these guys? Hard to know but have to think they should come out smelling like roses on a few of them. Depends on how quickly the offers come in and how desperate they are in getting some of these deals done. Could see basically swapping picks around - Yzerman in Detroit might add a solid connection to help dump some cap - a TJ or Palat type move to open up space for Cernak or Sergachev. Have to think too that they will only keep one of Cernak or Sergachev and look for a cheap signing on their bottom pairing. Shattenkirk likely won’t be back either. For us Rafferty isn’t someone we should trade without at least trying him out first ... The costs do seem ok but maybe they’d rather a first - a lot easier to flip that then what they end up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted September 28, 2020 Author Share Posted September 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, IBatch said: Cernak is a great target for us and most teams in the league - TB might have cap issues but at least their drafting keeps them in cap trouble and allows them to recycle assets better then anyone really. No team in the league has done more with less then TB the past 5 plus years. Cirelli, Point, Gourde, Paquette, Cernak, and they still have Foote and others waiting for their turn. Sergachev was for Droin but yet another solid move. What can they get for a couple of these guys? Hard to know but have to think they should come out smelling like roses on a few of them. Depends on how quickly the offers come in and how desperate they are in getting some of these deals done. Could see basically swapping picks around - Yzerman in Detroit might add a solid connection to help dump some cap - a TJ or Palat type move to open up space for Cernak or Sergachev. Have to think too that they will only keep one of Cernak or Sergachev and look for a cheap signing on their bottom pairing. Shattenkirk likely won’t be back either. For us Rafferty isn’t someone we should trade without at least trying him out first ... The costs do seem ok but maybe they’d rather a first - a lot easier to flip that then what they end up with. All good points, but Palat and TJ both have NTC. They are not waiving to go Detroit! Haha. Next season TJ moves to a M-NTC, so he will be traded then to clear more space. Can't see anyone waiving to leave TBL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, BigTramFan said: Offer sheets haven't worked for years. I would be keen to avoid an offer sheet to keep a good trading relationship with Tampa, because they will be moving out more assets in the future. Also you can bet that TBL have already moved Cernak before they risk losing him to an offer sheet. Finally, we're not retaining on Beagle and Rafferty for the sake of VAN, it is to generate the value to get Cernak off their hands. Offer sheets are not cool. Yes there has been some rumblings that offer sheets could come out, before Aho believe O’Reilly was the last one (in like 2013). They can be bridge burning desperation moved for the most part and rather avoid that. Bergervin calling in must make any team with young stars up soon nervous ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, BigTramFan said: All good points, but Palat and TJ both have NTC. They are not waiving to go Detroit! Haha. Next season TJ moves to a M-NTC, so he will be traded then to clear more space. Can't see anyone waiving to leave TBL. Oops. Good point. Nobody does that ever ha ha - leaves a cup team to a bottom one ...let’s hope your namesake comes back. Could use him as our Tanev replacement too Edited September 28, 2020 by IBatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 LOL at Vancouver retaining on Rafferty. You can only have 3 salaries with retention at any time. Why would Tampa waste one of those slots for a measly $350K? Cernak is a great example of smart GM-ing. When Tampa had a down year, they traded Ben Bishop - an impending UFA - to LA for Cernak and a late pick. Tampa’s scouts are so dang good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted September 28, 2020 Author Share Posted September 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, IBatch said: Oops. Good point. Nobody does that ever ha ha - leaves a cup team to a bottom one ...let’s hope your namesake comes back. Could use him as our Tanev replacement too A right side of Cernak, Myers, Tryamkin would be great... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, BigTramFan said: All good points, but Palat and TJ both have NTC. They are not waiving to go Detroit! Haha. Next season TJ moves to a M-NTC, so he will be traded then to clear more space. Can't see anyone waiving to leave TBL. I could see Tampa waiving Johnson if he won’t agree voluntarily. They need space, and he’s been buried in their lineup of late. Detroit would jump all over that, if they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superlative Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, mll said: Boston traded Hamilton in part because they knew Chiarelli was going to offer-sheet him. They got a better package our of Calgary than the offer sheet would have brought back. Could be a similar reasoning here if they feel Cernak is not willing to do a bridge. If they feel they can't retain Cernak then would think that they are going to try and trade him for a 1st round pick. I fully agree TBL could be tryna get a better package for him then a 2nd. What if we offer sheet both serg and cern in hopes we get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted September 28, 2020 Author Share Posted September 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, D-Money said: LOL at Vancouver retaining on Rafferty. You can only have 3 salaries with retention at any time. Why would Tampa waste one of those slots for a measly $350K? Cernak is a great example of smart GM-ing. When Tampa had a down year, they traded Ben Bishop - an impending UFA - to LA for Cernak and a late pick. Tampa’s scouts are so dang good. Excellent point on the max three x RS, but we are only talking about one season for Rafferty and if he fills a D slot for $350k for one season until TBL can clear more space by moving TJ, then maybe it works for them. I guess it depends on how many other players on RS they are looking to add - probably as many as possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Superlative said: I fully agree TBL could be tryna get a better package for him then a 2nd. What if we offer sheet both serg and cern in hopes we get one. What if next year TB trades Point for a kings ransom and then offer sheets EP right back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, BigTramFan said: Coburn has NTC, don't think he would agree to move, as he only has one season left, and then may retire. Let's say they manage to low ball Cernak into a $3m bridge contract and they have traded Killorn for space. They only have $6.8m to sign another 7 players to their roster. Can't see them flooding their roster with 7 guys on ELCs. But they can demote him to the minors. Would save them 625K. He is probably more willing for a trade knowing that the alternative is being sent to the AHL. They are going to have plenty of offers for their players. Sergachev and Cernak do not have arbitration rights which helps Tampa. Edited September 28, 2020 by mll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted September 28, 2020 Author Share Posted September 28, 2020 1 minute ago, mll said: But they can demote him to the minors. Would save them 625K. He is probably more willing for a trade knowing that the alternative is being sent to the AHL. They are going to have plenty of offers for their players. Sergachev and Cernak do not have arbitration rights which helps Tampa. They can demote Coburn to the minors and save 625k but who do they replace him with on their roster for less than 625k? They are up against it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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