HighOnHockey
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Posts posted by HighOnHockey
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40 minutes ago, Odd. said:
Assuming Leonard and Reinbacher don’t fall, I think management is taking Willander. Two way defenseman with some snarl and physicality and the best skater in the draft of all defenseman.
Seider vibes from Willander.
Better than Gulyayev you think???
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40 minutes ago, VancouverHabitant said:
Hey, what's going on with Sens? This will be the first draft in a while where they're not stacked with picks, but I'm curious who are the next young guys that will be looking to step into their lineup?
I've been intrigued by the big center that played for Vancouver Giants, and if he's making a jump any time soon.
As with most Sens fans, I'm pretty stoked about the current situation. I think they're going to be ready to do some damage next year. I thought maybe they could sneak into the playoffs this year, but it wasn't meant to be with the injuries.
Guys like Norris, Batherson, Stutzle all just entering their primes. Stutzle is suddenly a number one center in the league and had 91 points last year. Shane Pinto and Jake Sanderson are coming along very nicely.
I was really happy about the acquisitions of DeBrincat and Giroux, even though they weren't my top targets, but just to see the team was moving on from the Melnyk era. Lol, people here complain about ownership a fair amount, but you guys have no f**king clue. My top three Sens acquisition targets going back to last summer were Nick Schmaltz, Travis Konecny and Jakub Chychrun, so while I was a little underwhelmed with Giroux and DeBrincat instead, I was over the moon about Chychrun. A lot of Sens fans weren't as interested in Chychrun because, like here, people get pretty goofy about the RHD thing, and the Sens already have Chabot on the left side with Sanderson coming up. But in my experience, at least as many if not more teams win Cups with top defensemen on separate pairs (Niedermayer/Pronger. Hedman/McDonagh, Pietrangelo/Parayko) vs. a single pair (Keith/Seabrook, Pietrangelo/Theodore).
Dorion acquired the star players he did rather than the likes of Konecny or Schmaltz because he was able to do those deals with just picks, and not touch his stacked prospect pool. It's maybe not in the top handful of prospect pools in the league just because the gamebreakers have already pretty much all graduated, but it still has depth that would put the Canucks' prospect pool to shame. Zack Ostapchuk was traded in the WHL from Vancouver to Winnipeg for 3 first round picks+. Probably the prospect fan are most excited for is Ridly Greig, who people are comparing to Brad Marchand. Then Yegor Sokolov, Lassi Thomson, Roby Jarventie, Mads Sogaard, Leevi Merilainen are all looking promising, among others.
I dunno, most fans here are clamoring for a full tear-down and rebuild rather than a gradual retool. The Sens went about as all-out rebuild as you can get, and while it's incredibly exciting now coming out the other end, if you're a devoted fan of your team who watches most of the games, I wouldn't wish it on anybody.
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1 hour ago, Alflives said:
Alf’s empties are chiming Benson will fall to us. With him we get a guy, who would have been 1OA in last year’s draft. He’s a future high compete, ppg, super smart, 200 foot Centre. He’s a guy who will push Miller to wing. He’s going to be brilliant.
Lol not even close.
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20 minutes ago, Down by the River said:
I've made two aggregate lists summarizing rankings from various media sources. Some (e.g., Pronman) I've excluded because I just personally found the rationale for his rankings to never make sense.
This is the top 32 based on 49 rankings that date back as early as 2022. These rankings include multiple rankings from the same outlet (e.g., Button in the Fall, Button in the Winter, Button in June, etc.):
Connor Bedard
Adam Fantilli
Leo Carlsson
Matvei Michkov
Zach Benson
Will Smith
Dalibor Dvorsky
Eduard Sale
Oliver Moore
Brayden Yager
Andrew Cristall
Colby Barlow
Ryan Leonard
Calum Ritchie
Nate Danielson
Mikhail Gulyayev
Riley Heidt
Axel Sandin Pellikka
Matthew Wood
Otto Stenberg
Quentin Musty
Gabe Perreault
Gavin Brindley
David Reinbacher
Ethan Gauthier
Jayden Perron
Samuel Honzek
Kasper Halttunen
Dmitri Simashev
Daniil But
Charlie Stramel
Lukas Dragicevic
Here are the rankings if you want to focus moreso on recency (e.g., between May and June). The rankings are based on 12 lists and none from the same person/outlet:
Connor Bedard
Adam Fantilli
Matvei Michkov
Leo Carlsson
Will Smith
Axel Sandin Pellikka
Zach Benson
Ryan Leonard
Oliver Moore
Dalibor Dvorsky
Colby Barlow
Gabe Perreault
David Reinbacher
Matthew Wood
Eduard Sale
Nate Danielson
Andrew Cristall
Gavin Brindley
Luca Cagnoni
Dmitri Simashev
Brayden Yager
Samuel Honzek
Tom Wilander
Mikhail Gulyayev
Calum Ritchie
Otto Stenberg
Quentin Musty
Lukas Dragicevic
Riley Heidt
Daniil But
Jayden Perron
Oliver Bonk
Outstanding stuff. Much appreciated your posting. Got me thinking I'd like to do one of my own but just with the outlets I know and trust. You just assign each ranking 1 point for 1st overall and 50 points for 50th overall kinda thing? No weights I presume?
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52 minutes ago, Warhippy said:
Hlinka and Jr A championships yes. My bad on the WJC
I just have PTSD from drafting players that have risen based on tournament play as much as seasonal. This is not to say he won't progress or be a solid pick, but more as a cautionary reminder of what can happen to teams that lean to heavily on those tournaments and scouting reports based on them vs the overall body of work.
No issues with this pick, going to Boston is a great plan and we do well with NCAA developed players
Fair enough, but for Willander that's 25 games worth of international tournament play, and generally speaking at a higher level of competition than what he would be facing in the Swedish junior league. The 4 and 5 Nations would be higher quality of competition because they're only the likes of USA, Sweden, Finland, Czechs, without all the punching bag teams bringing down the overall quality. The quality of competition at Hlinkas and IIHF U18s vary wildly from team to team. And of course the WJAC is the highest of all of them, as it is a U19 tournament. Willander stood out at that tournament in particular.
Also, again, you need to consider how NHL teams get their information, not just how it appears to us fans. It will always be the local area scouts getting first looks at prospects, and then they bring that information back to their groups. Scouting directors will take that information and the players that the area scouts are particularly high on will be flagged higher for crossover. Head scouts and crossover scouts (the higher ranking folks with a bigger say in the scouting meetings) will make a point to go and see select league games of players their area scouts are high on, but I would wager that a much higher portion of their viewings will come at these international tournaments, and again, for most players from Sweden, Finland, Czechia this year, that's 20+ potential viewings. So to distill my point down, while the area scouts will have tons of viewings from league games and they're the ones that know their players best and will be advocating for them at the scouting meetings, other area scouts will be advocating for their own players, and the team's higher ranking scouts who are charged with actually settling these debates, they will tend to have had much more of their viewings from international tournament play.
That said, for the Canucks, Gradin is one of the highest ranking scouts, so he'll have tons of first hand knowledge from both league and tournament play.
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7 minutes ago, Warhippy said:
Drafting an RHD good
Drafting a Swedish player shocking
Drafting a player who rose again based on the World Juniors, kinda scary
Won't hate the pick knowing he's 2-3 years away post draft but ALWAYS hesitating on players who rose based as much on the world juniors as their actual total body of work. Like he is going to Boston College, we do well with NCAA developed players.
But if we go all the way back to like page 22; you'll see a Hippy post asking which Swedish player we were gonna be drafting. Now we know
You mean based on the U18s? But you realize it's only among fans/media that he rose based on U18s. NHL scouts would have seen him at last springs 5N U17s, then this year at Hlinkas, fall 5N U18s, WJAC, spring 4N U18s. And then of course league games, but it's not always a direct correlation between the knowledge of area scouts and their team's overall scouting staff, which is why the tournaments are important, because we know head scouts and crossover guys will be there. The spring U18s tournament that means so much to us fans, for NHL scouts is really just for finalizing last-minute touch-ups
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18 hours ago, R3aL said:
he got a sniff of SHL Games this year but he’s committed to going to the NCAA next year. It’s an interesting path. I take it he wants to get use to the North American ice/style/angles/timing ASAP. And I love it.
i think Willander if drafted would be Quinn Hughes future partner.
but I wish he could have actually played games in the SHL it’s too bad the NCAA commitment kept him from that. I can’t think of any swedish dmen who have gone this route off the top of my head?
All this talk of ASP and Willander, I think Theo Lindstein is getting a little lost in the mix here. He was a 52% corsi on an SHL team that had to play for relegation. Unlike Willander or ASP he played the full season in SHL. Played regular minutes and was among his team's ATOI leaders in the relegation matches. He also showed at the international tournaments throughout the year that he has a nose for creating offense with his shot from the blueline.
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4 hours ago, Sp3nny said:
I do think there is something to be said about better leagues making players automatically look better. Being surrounded by pro players in mens leagues has a cascading effect on the team. Something as simple as positioning of your teammates can make a huge difference on individual players, where they are able to know that their line mate will make the correct play in certain situations, which in turn helps them make smart plays themselves. If you play hockey, you will know what’s it’s like playing beer league vs tournament style hockey. Nothing changes about your game, but the environment of better players both on and against your team changes the game completely.
Continuing that train of thought, something else has occurred to me recently, but in a different vein. How many of these young players who are clearly developing well and able to move up to a men’s league earlier than others actually harm or stunt their development in some way? Probably more so on the offensive side. Do we take that into consideration? I feel like the normal path we take is to assume that the player is doing it against men (or at a higher level) so that’s always a positive and better than doing it against your peers.
What has me thinking of this the last few days is my post a few pages back on a couple fwds. I mentioned that Dvorsky somewhat reminds me of Podkolzin from his draft yr, not rly in their play style, but more so as a prospect. Both very defensively aware fwds who got playing time with men in their draft yrs, and both have the size to make that possible without getting completely outmuscled. What was also similar, was they both had fairly modest point totals in the men’s league they played in, and yet against their peers, they had very strong WJC (and other) tournaments. Naturally, it can be easy to assume this means that they are better than their peers. How much, if any, damage does this do to their upside? I rarely hear anyone make this argument until after a player is drafted, where the point is made not to rush a player, but let them develop at their required pace.
And to be clear, this isn’t me picking on Dvorsky, I feel he will be a very good pick, and one I would be very happy for the Canucks to make. I have flip flopped on him a bit, where sometimes I think he looks fantastic, but others times more average. I get Kopitar vibes from him, and seeing his success against his peers more recently had me thinking bigger picture about if he wasn’t playing in Allsvenskan, what he would look like as a prospect? Just a random line of thought rly…
Yeah all interesting questions. I've been playing around with the equivalency chart lately. https://towardsdatascience.com/nhl-equivalency-and-prospect-projection-models-building-the-nhl-equivalency-model-part-2-6f275a45e22
Allsvenskan - 0.351
VHL - 0.328
Almost identical quality leagues, Podkolzin played 12:18 per game his draft year. Dvorsky played 14:50.
The key difference, like you mentioned, is the production in the junior leagues. Dvorsky's 2.1 p/g is the highest ever (min 10 GP) total in that league by a U18. You don't put up numbers like that just because you're big and strong. Even converting to MHL ([0.091/0.143]x[21/10]) numbers would give him 13 points in 10 games to Podkolzin's 8 in 12. And of course what he did at U18s was on another level, even if the numbers might be a little skewed due to the lower quality of competition this year; Dvorsky did everything for that team. He took the second most faceoffs in the tournament and won 57.14%, and in Allsvenskan he was a pretty respectable 48.38%. He's a smart, heavy, two-way, true center with some skill. I know some people question the upside, and like you said he doesn't have that one skill that really stands out, but to me he's just the complete package, everything you could ask for in a center in your top six, especially come playoffs. He's still in the mix for my top five, although I'm undecided between him and Smith.
As for playing pro too early hurting a player's development, it definitely can happen. I think regarding the quality of prospects we're talking about here (Dvorsky, Sale) it shouldn't be a concern; they're pretty clearly ready, and are too good for their junior leagues - Sale scored over 2 p/g at 16. Even if he went to Sweden it wouldn't be that much better. He'd need to come to North America to play junior hockey at a suitable level. I see what you're saying about maybe not getting the same offensive opportunities and such, but on the other side of it, junior-style offense won't work in the NHL, and the sooner you can start to learn how to create offence within the tighter and stricter strictures of pro hockey, I think that is probably a good thing. And teams are generally pretty good about playing players at a level suitable to them - their play dictates it. Take Sandin-Pellikka or Otto Senberg this year, they played some games in SHL but just weren't really ready so they spent most of the year in junior.
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Going back to @smithers joe 's earlier comment:
I've been watching Dvorsky and Sale lately and gushing about their hockey IQ, but then I started thinking "why is it always the pro players I tend to think of as the highest IQ players in their draft classes?" Same goes for Fantilli (not pro, but still much higher level than junior) or Carlsson, or in recent drafts Svechkov, Yurov, Clarke, Nemec, Kasper, etc. We could say "of course they are, that's why they're playing pro so early" and there is some truth to that, but there's also been some prospects in recent drafts who were playing pro and I wasn't as convinced about - Lysell, Edvinsson, Kemell, Halttunen for example.
But it occurred to me, it doesn't necessarily mean they're the highest IQ players in their draft, it just means they've proven it at a much higher level than others. Unfortunately, for North American kids pro hockey isn't really an option. The Canadians in particular are stuck paying in junior. We can see why so many like Fantilli, Wood, Celebrini, Hague are taking the Junior A/NCAA option to get a chance to play at a higher level sooner. It makes it hard trying to compare a Barlow or a Musty, Ritchie, Benson etc. against guys like Sale or Dvorsky, who've already proven they can do it at the next level. With the junior players we can really only see the hockey IQ they need up to this level of hockey, and from there we just have to try and extrapolate.
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9 hours ago, R3aL said:
I do not see a clear way for them to get the return they would want on a miller trade?
if you see it so clearly please share the trade proposal?
they will not be trading miller without immediately replacing the 2C slot. It would have to be a very creative multi team trade. Or they’d have to acquire an asset they could then use to acquire that C from another team.
I cannot see a single team that could be a trade partner on their own. Make sense?
it sounds like you understood me but also didn’t so a little confusing.
I certainly don't mean to take sides with that other fellow, but there was a thread made the other day with what I thought was one of the better thought out Canucks trade proposals I've seen in a while. After hiring Babcock and acquiring Provorov (and last summer signing Gaudreau), Columbus has made it clear they're looking to take the next step in their rebuild. @Coconuts proposed Columbus sends 3rd overall to Vancouver in exchange for J.T. Miller and 11th overall. Columbus already has clear top line wingers but just lacks a number one C. Sure they could add Fantilli or Carlsson and have a 1C within 2-3 years, but Gaudreau is already gonna be 30 this summer. Miller is an Ohio native, and we know how important local talent is in Columbus to help grow the hockey culture in the area. This way they get their 1C now and still come away with a really good prospect at 11. Perhaps Kekelainen thinks Michkov will fall and they can still land him at 11.
As you said, they would want to get an immediate 2C out of any such deal. Well, Fantilli/Carlsson would be pretty darn close.
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21 minutes ago, smithers joe said:
allvin told his scouts to assess players on how they will be at the pinacle of their careers? is that even possible?
can anyone here judge that?
That's the whole point of scouting is to try. If it was just who's the best player right now things would be a whole lot easier.
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The further along I get in negotiations with my RFAs, the more I begin to realize I may not be able to fit everyone under the cap. Will probably need to move one of Bobrovsky or Reinhart. Preference would be Bobrovsky. Could also offer retention on Reinhart, but the asking price would be quite a bit higher than for Bob.
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20 minutes ago, hammertime said:
Should I bring up his Nov (Hameenahio belabored point) birthday vs Dvorsky that year.
Also seriously??
You're the one that said it.
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1 minute ago, hammertime said:
About here is where you bring up the age equivalency. On a kid who is 50 lbs heavier.
Well I'm sorry if you think Elias Pettersson was "statistically slaughtered" his 17 year old season.
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1 hour ago, hammertime said:
I'm not interested in getting into another mud wrestle with you. You have your opinions and I have mine I share some of your views. I also think Sale is a stud . And some others I don't share your perspective. Thats what a discussion is. But every time I disagree with you you start slinging insults and resort to playground tactics. A glance at the title of our PM thread illustrates this.
Re Hameenaho Slafkovski comparison of course it's tongue N cheek. I took a guy I felt was a bit over rated last year and compared him to a guy who I feel is quite under rated this year and since they played in the same leagues it's a simpler exercise. I don't have Lenni top 5 I have him 20ish though in a class with Dvorsky. If we want to dive into it. Lenni is a Nov b day meaning on every team he played on growing up he was the youngest kid. Slafkovski being a March baby would have been the oldest and the stongest and quite obviously the biggest. There are 4 months separating these kids. I feel these factors cancel themselves out. In Liiga in their draft years Slafkovski tossed down 17 points in 49 games. Hameenaho had 25 points in 59 games. Their D-1 their numbers are also quite similar. Am I taking Slafkovski over Hameenaho of course I am but I don't think they are acres apart. Sure you can say one is 17 and the other is 18 but the 17 yearold is 6'3 240 so that point is kinda moot IMO. But all I am saying with this is don't sleep on Hameenaho I'm not billing him top 5.
Re fixation on B days. I mean it comes up a lot. Don't make me throw down Lekkerimaki Kemell comparisons. Physically mature this and that. Kemell is in another class it's not close. I remain hopeful for Lekkerimaki as he is our guy. One glance at the type of points Kemell has put up in the playoffs vs the actual quality of the points Lekkerimaki put up meh I'm not interested you can see for yourself on twitter Kemell is clapping bombs. Buut it's kinda across the board. You can see Dvorsky is a big physically mature boi dominated children at the u18 but against men his own size. Statistically slaughtered and the eye test is worse. It goes on and on though anytime anyone disagrees with you you throw this age comparison in their face so and so is younger or not physically mature but maybe they just aren't as good as you think they are? There are schools of thought and I agree with you more often than not. Sometimes I disagree. Any time anyone does you cut their knees out.
Dvorsky statistically slaughtered in Allsvenskan eh? The 7th best p/g ever in that league (min 20 games), about dead even with Elias Pettersson at the same sage.
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21 hours ago, hammertime said:
Obviously big handful of salt but it is kind of interesting.
I've been looking at this more closely. The method all makes a lot of sense and sounds valid to me, despite a very layman's understanding of math and statis. But it's interesting that this is a case where the larger data set may in some ways reduce the accuracy of the results. The data used is from 2005 to 2020. Up until maybe 2010 or so the Czech league was still among the best in the world, and then at some point the quality dropped off somewhat, although it's hard to say exactly how much and to what extent it has recovered in the past few years. Would be cool to see the data broken down into smaller chronological segments to try and track how different league qualities have changed over the years. I would also think Slovakian Extraliga has declined fairly significantly from the start of the data set.
Kind of neat to see how high the quality of the World Junior Championships tournament is. Almost on the level of some of the secondary hockey country's top pro leagues. A little surprising to see USHL ahead of WHL.
Since I was doing a deep dive on Eduard Sale lately, I thought it would be interesting to see how the comparisons would look if we were to assume the numbers for the Czech leagues were correct - we know they'll likely produce more impressive numbers than they should, so keeping that in mind - Czech U20 over OHL is 0.074 over 0.144 = 0.51389. Times that by Eduard Sale's 2.28205 from the Czech U20 league at 16, converted to OHL numbers would be 1.17272, well ahead of any of the top guys there; Barlow was 0.80 and Ritchie was 0.69. Converted to WHL numbers he'd be 1.19767, ahead of Cristall, Benson, Yager and anyone but Bedard. His 17 year old season is a little less impressive,. Converts to 1.32 OHL p/g, ahead of everyone in the OHL except Barlow and Musty. But I can never make sense of how to account for the differences in ice time. Sale played 12 mins per game in the Extraliga. Seems like that should have to be accounted for, but not sure how much that should be considered to be baked in to the initial conversion. Makes my head hurt to think about too much.
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3 hours ago, hammertime said:
Rykov is 17 it also has Musty and Perrault top 10 but I agree to a point.
I don't quite have the same fixation on birthdays you do. As a 17 yearold Raty was ranked 1st OA a year later he's a 53oa pick. Not all kids development is liner.
Reinbacher, Michkov, Carlsson, Hameenaho have had success in mens leagues as 18 yearlods I'm not going punish them for being 18 and promote a kid treading water that's a few months younger in hopes that he will surpass the level the others are already displaying.
I still don't understand why you think I'm trying to "punish them" them for being 18 though? Every time I bring it you keep saying things like I'm trying to favor certain players over others, but when have I ever argued a player should be ranked better or worse because of their birthday? Like when I tried to correct you about statistical comparables for Hameenaho you said something like "those stats sound pretty good, not sure how that's supposed to an argument against Hameenaho." But I was never trying to argue against him, I was trying to argue for an accurate assessment of him. If anything I think I was doing the player a favor by showing how positive the stats could still be if you used the correct comparables, rather than using false comparables and then comparing the player to Juaraj Slafkovsky. If I say "x is a, not b", I'm not making a value claim about x, I'm making a simple observation.
You can call it a "fixation on birthdays" all you want, but every piece of information is important. If someone lists a player's height or weight or country of origin wrong, those should be corrected too. Maybe it's not that important, but accuracy and correctness are always better than their opposites.
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And one more bonus clip. This was Sale as an under-age at the Chablais Trophy (5 Nations) tournament. He's got that separation gear:
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Eduard Sale is becoming one of my absolute favorite players in the draft. Had to tag @R3aL in this one. Sale looks to me like one of the most translatable skilled offensive forwards this year. One of the better 200-foot wingers I've seen in recent draft classes. You so often only see his level of hockey IQ at this age in players who aren't great skaters and need to learn to use smarts to compensate. The majority of the time Sale is able to make the play with his positioning and by reading the play, but when he needs to, kid can burn. And it's not just his speed, he's agile and smooth on his edges, and able to be highly deceptive with his skating maneuvers. He's always looking to put his body in between the puck and opposing players to give himself extra time to make a play, and he's fantastic in limited time and space, reading and reacting instantaneously to make deft touch passing plays in traffic.
The most common criticism I've seen against Sale is regarding physicality and being "soft", so I figured I'd put together a few highlights of his physical play. The first three are from the Czech Extraliga this season where keep in mind he's 168 lbs (wearing #28); the next two are from last summer's Hlinka Cup (#12)
Here we see him up against a 207 lb longtime KHL veteran defenseman (Sale is #28 in white):
Here he goes against 6'4, 184 lb Jakub Dvorak, who should also go early in this year's draft, and again Sale's team comes away with possession (Sale is #28 in blue this time):
A nice burst of speed to get by the defenseman and take the bump but maintain his balance and, at least momentarily, possession (#28 blue):
And this is him against his peers:
This one is just fun:
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1 hour ago, hammertime said:
Yes and no. If they put up points Michkov 1st, Carlsson 3rd, Reinbacher 5th, Hameenaho 24th, Rykov, 44th.
If they didn't put up points they got torched absolutely.
Right but every one of those kids was 18. The 17 year olds had little hope.
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I guess I should probably be looking to add more quantity to my prospect pool. Would consider trade-back scenarios from pick 20.
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13 minutes ago, Coconuts said:
It's the offseason for us and the draft is coming, time for a proposal. There's an ongoing discussion regarding this in the Provorov thread anyway so it may as well get it's own thread.
To Columbus
JT Miller
11OA
+?
To Vancouver
3OA, or one of Carlsson/Fantilli
There's been speculation that Patrick Allvin is really high on Leo Carlsson, who presumably will be available at 3OA unless Anaheim surprises everyone and doesn't select Fantilli. Which is fine, Fantilli is a stud I'd happily take at 3OA.
Columbus has upgraded their D with Provorov and are likely looking to make the playoffs next season, Miller would immediately become their 1C ahead of Jenner and anyone else they have. Miller is an Ohio guy even if he grew up a Pens fan, it could very well be that he'd be receptive to Columbus as a landing spot. But hey, until he clause kicks in he doesn't really get a say and it hasn't yet. I think Miller could be a compete and growth piece. If the idea is to shift the culture by being genuinely competitive while bringing their prospects along it'd make sense.
LA just set the marking by dumping cap on Philly, moving out cap would more than likely cost us imo and moving Miller is the easiest way to shed cap while getting positive value back. Miller and 11OA may seem like a lot to some but top 3 picks are rarely moved and the price to acquire such a pick would understandably have to be huge. One could argue that cap space would also be part of the return if we're not taking cap back. It could be we may have to add a bit though, this is the 3OA we're talking about, there could be other moving pieces involved.
If Columbus were to acquire Miller their top six would look like: Miller, Gaudreau, Laine, Johnson, Roslovic, and Jenner. Sillinger could platoon the third line behind Miller and Jenner/Johnson. Columbus has two young centers already in Sillinger and Johnson, Carlsson isn't essential.
Miller, Laine, and Gaudreau would be their pricy forwards. Jenner is on a sweetheart deal. Johnson may get a bridge, Roslovic was born in Columbus and may take a discount to stay. That's a very competitive top six. And they'd get a very good player at 11OA.
We'd get to run with a 1-2 punch of Pettersson and one of Carlsson and Fantilli, both of which who fit our window better imo. Any draft that didn't feature Bedard would likely see one of them going 1OA, we'd be getting a premium talent on an ELC.
This was an interesting idea. Well argued for why Columbus might do it. I doubt it would actually happen, but I guess you never know. Depends in part on if Columbus thinks there will be someone there they like at 11. Maybe they expect Michkov will fall that far. They get Miller and their number two ranked guy and call it a day. I still think it's worth it for Vancouver to offload Miller's contract and get a sure chance at one of Carlsson or Fantilli.
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13 hours ago, hammertime said:
Absolutely. And while it is incredibly flawed. It will be interesting to see when draft day comes how much better or worse it is statistically speaking than some other lists available in the media. Especially when you do consider how incredibly flawed it is. Could other metrics be built into it to make it better in years to come? At this point it's just an incredibly raw exercise in statistics.
I do statistics in forestry metrics for a living so I kind of geeked when I saw someone made a base model for the entire draft class based on TOP Down's
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║ League ║ NHLe ║
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║ NHL ║ 1 ║
║ KHL ║ 0.772 ║
║ Czech ║ 0.583 ║
║ SHL ║ 0.566 ║
║ NLA ║ 0.459 ║
║ Liiga ║ 0.441 ║
║ AHL ║ 0.389 ║
║ DEL ║ 0.352 ║
║ Allsvenskan ║ 0.351 ║
║ VHL ║ 0.328 ║
║ Slovakia ║ 0.295 ║
║ EBEL ║ 0.269 ║
║ WJC-20 ║ 0.269 ║
║ France ║ 0.250 ║
║ Belarus ║ 0.242 ║
║ Czech2 ║ 0.240 ║
║ EIHL ║ 0.235 ║
║ LNAH ║ 0.232 ║
║ DEL2 ║ 0.205 ║
║ Kazakhstan ║ 0.201 ║
║ NCAA ║ 0.194 ║
║ Denmark ║ 0.190 ║
║ Mestis ║ 0.178 ║
║ NLB ║ 0.176 ║
║ Italy ║ 0.176 ║
║ Norway ║ 0.173 ║
║ ECHL ║ 0.147 ║
║ OHL ║ 0.144 ║
║ MHL ║ 0.143 ║
║ USHL ║ 0.143 ║
║ WHL ║ 0.141 ║
║ Poland ║ 0.135 ║
║ WJC-18 ║ 0.135 ║
║ Russia3 ║ 0.135 ║
║ Usports ║ 0.125 ║
║ USDP ║ 0.121 ║
║ QMJHL ║ 0.113 ║
║ Division-1 ║ 0.109 ║
║ Czech3 ║ 0.104 ║
║ Erste-Liga ║ 0.103 ║
║ Slovakia2 ║ 0.102 ║
║ Romania ║ 0.099 ║
║ Superelit ║ 0.091 ║
║ NAHL ║ 0.087 ║
║ Germany3 ║ 0.085 ║
║ ALPSHL ║ 0.084 ║
║ U20 SM-Liiga ║ 0.083 ║
║ BCHL ║ 0.080 ║
║ NMHL ║ 0.076 ║
║ Czech-U20 ║ 0.074 ║
║ AJHL ║ 0.062 ║
║ EJHL ║ 0.060 ║
║ Czech U19 ║ 0.059 ║
║ SwissDiv1 ║ 0.054 ║
║ Belarus-Vysshaya ║ 0.052 ║
║ SJHL ║ 0.052 ║
║ U20-Elit ║ 0.049 ║
║ CCHL ║ 0.048 ║
║ MJHL ║ 0.046 ║
║ USPHL-Premier ║ 0.046 ║
║ Slovakia-U20 ║ 0.044 ║
║ Russia-U17 ║ 0.044 ║
║ USPHL-18U ║ 0.041 ║
║ U18 SM-Sarja ║ 0.040 ║
║ NAPHL-18U ║ 0.039 ║
║ Czech U18 ║ 0.038 ║
║ J18 Allsvenskan ║ 0.038 ║
║ Division-2 ║ 0.038 ║
║ MJAHL ║ 0.037 ║
║ QJAAAHL ║ 0.036 ║
║ MPHL ║ 0.035 ║
║ OJHL ║ 0.034 ║
║ HPHL-16U ║ 0.034 ║
║ Slovenia ║ 0.033 ║
║ Russia-U18 ║ 0.032 ║
║ 16U-AAA ║ 0.031 ║
║ J18-Elit ║ 0.029 ║
║ USHS-Prep ║ 0.028 ║
║ QMAAA ║ 0.028 ║
║ CISAA ║ 0.027 ║
║ Norway2 ║ 0.027 ║
║ USPHL-16U ║ 0.027 ║
║ GOJHL ║ 0.027 ║
║ AYHL-16U ║ 0.026 ║
║ Russia-U16 ║ 0.025 ║
║ J20-Elit ║ 0.024 ║
║ USHS-MN ║ 0.024 ║
║ DNL ║ 0.024 ║
║ Denmark2 ║ 0.023 ║
║ VIJHL ║ 0.021 ║
║ NOJHL ║ 0.021 ║
║ Slovakia-U18 ║ 0.020 ║
║ CAHS ║ 0.020 ║
║ AMHL ║ 0.020 ║
║ PIJHL ║ 0.020 ║
║ KIJHL ║ 0.020 ║
║ U17-Elit ║ 0.018 ║
║ II-DivisioonA ║ 0.018 ║
║ U20-Top ║ 0.017 ║
║ BCMML ║ 0.016 ║
║ U16 SM-Sarja ║ 0.015 ║
║ NSMMHL ║ 0.015 ║
║ Czech U16 ║ 0.014 ║
║ Denmark-U20 ║ 0.013 ║
║ MMHL ║ 0.013 ║
║ U16 SM-Sarja-Q ║ 0.012 ║
║ GTHL-U16 ║ 0.012 ║
║ J20-Div.1 ║ 0.011 ║
║ U16-SM ║ 0.011 ║
║ U16-ELIT ║ 0.010 ║
║ Alliance-U16 ║ 0.009 ║
║ GTHL-U18 ║ 0.008 ║
║ J18-Div.1 ║ 0.008 ║
║ Division-4 ║ 0.008 ║
║ QMEAA ║ 0.007 ║
║ J20-Div.2 ║ 0.007 ║
║ Denmark-U17 ║ 0.006 ║
║ U16-Div.1 ║ 0.005 ║
║ J18-Div.2 ║ 0.005 ║
║ ETAHL U18 ║ 0.005 ║
║ AMMHL ║ 0.005 ║
║ QBAAA ║ 0.004 ║
║ AMBHL ║ 0.002 ║
║ U16-Div.2 ║ 0.002 ║
╚══════════════════╩═══════╝Do you have a link to the source? Seems like this could be extremely useful but I don't know how much weight to put into it until I've read their methodology.
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19 minutes ago, Wolfgang Durst said:
you were surprised that Button has Reinbacher at 26. I replied that Button had Seider ouside the top 20 in his rankings in 2019. My statement implied that you should not trust Button's ranking. He was plain wrong on Seider leading up to the draft.
Button had Broberg in his top 10 and Seider outside the top 20. Where is Broberg today? How many NHL games has Broberg played? How do you view Broberg in comparison to Seider?
So sad that this explanation is required.
What the hell is wrong with this guy?
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2023 NHL Entry Draft
in Prospects / Farm Team
Posted
Right, but of course what year they're in is the more relevant factor than a few birth months. Late birthday players are a season ahead in their development by the time of the draft. That's relevant, even if you're talking a December vs January.
Although this year everything may be a little skewed because of the lost covid season.