Schedule

July 16, 2023

I'd take Ottawa.

July 14, 2023

1 hour ago, hammertime said:

Does position factor into how they calculate BPA?

I don't see how it could not. It seems pretty well established that all things considered equal, Cs and Ds, and especially RDs, have somewhat more value than wings, and wings have more value that goalies. Many factors come into play in a team putting together their ranking, from position, offensive potential, grit, work ethic, versatility, defensive play, playoff performance, personality and professionalism; hell, even stylistic factors can come into play - look at teams like Minnesota and St. Louis lately putting a premium on heavy forwards, or when Colorado exploited a market inefficiency and hoarded all the super-skilled small defensemen. We're not even talking about an individual scout's list, but the team's, so the scouts have to take the GM's and the team's vision into consideration.

July 7, 2023

Looks like a a pretty average draft class overall. Good depth but not the most exciting at the top end. Ranking it with the past few drafts best to worst I think I'd go 2023, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2021, but it's pretty close with the 2022 draft and might end up looking better by this time next year. Like 2022, it's defense-heavy at the top, also like 2022 a right shooting D named Jiricek will go very early, and yet still more like 2022 there's a ton of talented forwards, but the forward crop will suffer from a lack of size at the top end, as well as maybe a disproportionate amount of wingers. Villeneuve, Beaudoin, Hage, Humphries, Boisvert, Zether are some of the really good centers, but I'm not yet sure they're clear-cut top ten or fifteen type prospects. I'm also not yet sure they're all centers at higher levels. Looking at it by region, in some loose semblance of order:

Western Canada

Cayden Lindstrom C/LW 6'5

Charlie Elick RD 6'2

Berkly Catton C 5'11

Tanner Howe F 5'10

Ryder Ritchie F 6'0

Carter Yaremchuk RD 6'2

Andrew Basha F 5'11

Gavin Hodnett F 5'8

Ontario

Sam Dickinson LD 6'3

Beckett Sennecke RW 6'2

Henry Mews RD 6'0

Cole Beaudoin C 6'2

Nathan Villeneuve C 6'0

Zayne Parekh RD 6'0

Lukas Fischer LD 6'4

Jakub Chromiak RD 5'11 - via Slovakia

Anthony Cristoforo RD 5'11

Liam Greentree RW 6'2

Gabriel Frasca C 6'0

Matthew Virgilio 5'11 RD

Quebec and Maritimes

Maxim Masse RW 6'1

Justin Poirier F 5'8

Tomas Lavoie RD 6'3

Marcus Kearsey LD 5'11

Felix Lacerte C 5'10

NTDP

Cole Eiserman LW 5'11

Christan Humphries C 5'10

Brodie Ziemer F 5'11

John Whipple RD 6'0

Cole Hutson LD 5'8

Will Skahan LD 6'4

Brendan McMorrow W 5'11

Kamil Bednarik C 5'11

USHL and NCAA

Macklin Celebrin C 5'11 - via Ontario

Artyom Levshunov RD 6'2 - via Belarus

Michael Hage C 6'0 via Ontario

Sasha Boisvert C 6'2 via Ontario

Zeev Buium LD 6'0 - via NTDP

Trevor Connelly F 6'0

Matvei Gridin F 6'2 - via Russia

Mac Swanson F 5'7

Russia

Ivan Demidov LW/C 5'11

Igor Chernyshov LW 6'2

Alexander Shen C/RW 5'11

Yegor Surin C/RW 5'10

Nikita Onishko F 6'2

Alexei Dontsov F 5'8

Ivan Kornilov LD 5'11

Finland

Aron Kiviharju LD 5'10

Konsta Helenius C/RW 5'10

Emil Hemming RW 6'2

Sebastian Soini RD 6'1

Julius Miettinen C/LW 6'3

Veeti Vaisanen LD 6'0

David Svozil LD 6'1 - via Czechia

Ondrej Kos F 6'2 - via Czechia

Dominik Badinka RD 6'2 - via Czechia

Roope Vesterinen W 5'9

Topias Hynninen 5'10 RW

Sweden

Karl Sterner RW 6'4

Michael Brandsegg-Nygard RW 6'2 - via Norway

Simon Zether C 6'3

Alfons Frei LD 6'1

Melvin Fernstrom F 6'1

Lucas Pettersson C 5'11

Anton Olsson LD 5'11

Bruno Idzan F 5'11 - via Croatia

Liam Danielsson - RW 5'10

Alexander Zetterberg F 5'8

Czechia

Adam Jirick RD 6'1

Adam Jecho RW/C 6'4

Lukas Kral LW 5'11

Vasyl Spilka LW 6'2

Slovakia

Samuel Kupec LD 6'2

Ondrej Maruna C 6'4

Adam Belusko LD 5'11

Richard Hazala F 5'11

Matus Lisy LD 6'2

Miscellaneous

Paul Mayer LD 6'2 - Germany

Stian Solberg LD 6'2 - Norway

Kristers Ansons F 6'4 - Latvia

Daniil Ustinkov LD 6'0 - Swiss

Jamiro Reber C 5'10 - Swiss

Yannick Ponzetto LW 6'2 - Swiss

Pretty average looking classes out of most regions. Better in NA than Europe. Yet another strong year for the Dub after powerhouse classes in 2020 and 2023. Looks like the best class out of Ontario since 2020, and could be even better. I could see up to five OHLers going in that top 10-15 range. Should be a little bit better draft for Quebec than the last couple years, but still kind of weak.

This year's NTDP looks like it's going to be another juggernaut, but I can't recall seeing a program where so many of the top players are late birthdays (and not eligible until '25: James Hagens, Dakoda Rheaume-Mullen, Logan Hensler, Shane Vansaghi), so it might not be a banner year for the program at the 2024 draft, but Eiserman will go early, and then they'll have a bunch of players go later first and throughout the 2nd and 3rd. The USHL and in particular the Chicago Steel are churning out talent, though largely imports aside from the NTDPs.

For Sweden I included some imports, but it's not exactly the most stellar class for them. Looks like Finland will have an average to a little above average class. Another pretty good class for Czechs - not particularly deep but has some higher-end talent. Slovakia looks to be coming back down to earth after a couple big years. Russia has a few high-end players but I'm not convinced it's the kind of stacked class they've had in some of the past few drafts.

Norway and Germany look to be teams on the up and up. Norway with Solberg, Brandsegg-Nygard looking like possible first rounders this year, and more coming up for '25 and '26. Germany has Mayers this year and a bunch of skilled forwards for '25.

No goalies yet. I'll keep adding for a while. Throw me some names, or lemme know if you notice a mistake. And discuss!

July 7, 2023

10 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

Not gunna lie I've been checking the prospects thread waiting to see if you've created the 2024 thread Planning to follow more closely throughout the year.

Right now Id have Celebrini #1, followed by Eiserman then Demidov. I'm thinking Celebrini goes post to post as the #1 guy b/c he's a C & the other 2 in this tier are wingers, then not sure how it'll shake out with the wingers but they look like top 5 picks at worst. Plenty of time tho we'll see.

Beyond that there are alot of intriguing defenseman on my radar: Levshunov, Jiricek, Dickinson, Buium, Kiviharju, Hutson, Fischer, exc.

Also interested in this Croatian kid Bruno Idzan, looks like a fast 1 shot scorer & potential top 15 pick.

Lol good idea for all Canucks fans to follow the draft more closely this year. Doesn't look like they're going to be very good. Good to see the new management maybe not committing to full rebuild, but at least keeping their own firsts and gradually moving out veterans like Horvat and OEL.

Also a good point about Celebrini maybe getting the edge due to being a center, although Demidov is dual-listed as a C/LW. He played LW in MHL this year, but I distinctly remember he was 3C for Russia at the 2021 Hlinkas as an under-age-and-a-half (December birthday). Eiserman and Demidov definitely look like the more dynamic offensive threats, but Celebrini's all-around game is pretty special. 6'5 Cayden Lindstrom played both LW and C at U17s but was a full-time center in WHL this year, winning 50.5% of 887 faceoffs as a 16 year-old. I wonder if he's a dark horse out of my birthplace in Chetwynd, BC.

Reminds me of the 2006 draft in a lot of ways, with all that high-end talent in the top five but didn't really have the bluechip obvious number one pick at the top. Lots of similarities between Celebrini and Toews, who went 3rd. Some superficial similarities between Eiserman and Kessel, just in terms of being American-born goal-scoring machines, although the difference in athleticism is kind of humorous. But also like 2006, I think a defenseman might end up jumping into top spot over the course of the season. Dickinson would be the obvious guess, probably followed by Levshunov, but I wonder if Jiricek could be a dark horse - kid plays with some hutzpah. gaps up at either blueline like a bat outta hell.

Alright, f**k it, since the demand is so overwhelming (.....) I'm gonna go start the thread now. Nice find on Idzan by the way. Playing international tournaments in division 2A for f**k sakes.

July 6, 2023

On 7/1/2023 at 12:56 PM, TGokou said:

I hate this whole thing about BPA. It's the stupidest thing in the world because everyone's BPA is completely subjective. Most people go by "consensus" rankings but if anyone has ever followed the draft most would know that after the first few picks no team ever follows consensus to a T. If that were the case there would be no intrigue with the draft at all.

Further, depending on how teams prioritize their ranking, their BPA will vary widely. "Team A" may value overall point production and impact, Team B may value size, Team C may value D men, Team E may value future trade value.

In the above example Team A may value small wingers highly because they may have a higher impact on the game from a offensive production. However, based on the trend in past drafts they will rarely get a D man unless they are in the top 5 of the draft. This is because D men typically take longer to develop and aren't as projectable as a forward and hence usually aren't rated as highly on media draft boards (they don't want to stick their neck out). Most people thought Moritz Seider was a reach at 6th overall when he was ranked in the mid teens. In a redraft he would most likely go second overall. As we all know unless that smallish winger turns out to be the next coming of Brad Marchand, they aren't valued all that highly from a trade perspective. Most wingers can be acquired with a mid first round pick or even second round pick +/- (Think Boeser/Garland/Mikaeyv) etc)

Team E on the other hand may look at the overall value of the player once they develop and how easily they can trade them as a commodity. A second pairing defenseman or even a "mediocre" first pairing young d man are impossible to trade without minimum first round pick + + +. Hence even drafting a projectable defensive d man will command a pretty hefty return. Any offensive up side on top would significantly increase to 2 first round picks at minimum. They can then trade these valuable commodities for impact winger + additional value if needed.

In summary it's important for people to realize that although Benson may have been rated higher because he was more projectable, Willander may command higher premium in the end even if both hit their top potential.

Every team drafts BPA according to their own ranking. A lot of fans seem to get confused and think BPA means highest consensus ranking. Willander was not picked for positional need. He was BPA on the Canucks' list.

July 6, 2023

4 hours ago, MikeyD said:

One thing I always find a bit odd is people who draft based on trade value. I get that defensemen and centers have more value in trades as they're harder to obtain, but don't you want your player to pan out and actually play for your team? You shouldn't want to draft a player you picked.

I have a feeling you're attacking a scarecrow here. I don't think anyone wants to draft a player just to trade them, but everyone wants to draft the most valuable player.

July 6, 2023

30 minutes ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Tank's on for Dickinson

Phone it in for Dickinson. (works for Eiserman too)

Lose for Mews rolls off the tongue the best, but not sure he's actually gonna be in the 1st overall conversation.

Skip the backcheck for Jiricek.

July 6, 2023

15 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Is he going or will he stay in europe and play in a semi mens league?

I don't know what a "semi mens league" means, but that sounds very unlikely. Assuming he stays in Sweden he'll surely play SHL or Allsvenskan once he's ready, although some more time in J20 first would be likely - he hasn't exactly lit up the junior circuit yet.

I'm still wondering what you mean by "semi mens league". Maybe you're thinking of something like the 3rd Swedish tier, HockeyEttan? That could be possible, but it wouldn't be a common route for an NHL-drafted prospect.

July 6, 2023

On 6/30/2023 at 9:49 AM, kenhodgejr said:

Id be happy if he projects to be a Michael Rasmussen type of player

Lol that's a hell of a tall order for a 4th round pick.

July 5, 2023

Man crazy to think it'll already be Hlinkas again in less than a month. I'm ready to start talking 2024 draft already, but seems too early to start the thread. I'll wait until Hlinkas unless someone else does it first. But for now I'm curious, everyone assuming Celebrini is the clear-cut first overall, have you seen Ivan Demidov?

I still think it's a pretty wide open race, but Demidov has the edge for me right now. Kid is absolutely electrifying. Dickinson has me wondering "what could be if it all comes together?" Some ideas for tank taglines:

"Play soft for Demidov"

"Take it easy for Celebrini"

"Let them win for Dickinson"

July 5, 2023

On 6/30/2023 at 3:55 AM, Ilunga said:

Which illustrates that it's not just a players talent but the quality of the team/ teammates they are playing on/ playing with.

As we have discussed in the draft thread imagine if Danielson had the same quality of linemates Benson had.

Yeah but this isn't a great argument considering scouts would have already had a detailed book on him from his year with the NTDP U18 team. But he kind of had the opposite problem there in that the team was too good, as he was pretty solidly stuck behind Lane Hutson and Seamus Casey for offensive and powerplay opportunities.

I've been keeping my mouth shut about this pick because of course it's a fine pick and a lot of sources ranked him earlier, but I always found him somewhat bland, and there were other players I would have preferred. Good to read on here he's trying to model his game after Radko Gudas, because I'm not convinced he makes it on offensive skill and upside alone. There is a decent frame there though and some solid combine numbers, so I'm hopeful he can develop into a solid two-way defenseman.

By the way, everyone talking about Celebrini being older brother to Macklin, but Brzustewicz' younger brother Henry looks like a bit of a prodigy as well, and could go very early in 2025.

July 4, 2023

I think Dallas is getting a good one. @Mike Vanderhoek

July 4, 2023

4 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

I very curious why Cam Allen fell so far, I know he had a decline in production this year. He was still the Captain of the of both the Canada U18 team and Hlinka Gretzky team (where he had a really good tournament, led all Dmen in scoring and tied for 4th with Zach Benson for tournament scoring). I though the Canucks might have took a chance on him having 3 4th round picks, and tried to right the ship. He was projected to be a 1st round pick at the start of the year.

Yeah but projected by who? I never really trust this narrative anymore because I watched it all go down with Aatu Raty. As far as I know it was mostly Craig Button (and a lot stat-watching fans and bloggers) who started saying early he was a first overall contender. But a number of posters HF who I trust know their shit said from the get-go it was hogwash, and he wouldn't go anything close to first. 2021 was such a wide open draft and nobody had a clue who would go first a year out, but Button needs to churn out the content and he needed to guess somebody. I don't mean this to be me hating on Button; I don't dislike him, but he's just one guy, and I don't think he watches quite as much prospects - especially D-1s - as fans assume he does.

It just creates so much confusion though. All these fans then asking what happened and why did he fall, but in reality he was just never as good a prospect as some people thought. I'm not sure to what extent this applies to Cam Allen, but personally I always thought he was at least a little over-hyped.

July 3, 2023

2 minutes ago, hammertime said:

@HighOnHockey

Re The Perkins Pick I'm just curious. I know we left Minnetian on the board there and he was your horse. There were some fantastic picks that followed Perkins.

Cirenik has that unbelievable speed. Caught my attention at the u18 in 2021 so I made sure to watch him at the U20 this year and catch a few games in the Allsven and he continued to impress me. I thought his skating alone would make him a 2nd rounder.

Juha Jaktola G 20yo overager I thought Clarke may be pounding the table for him. He had an incredible season in Liiga.

Cam Squires I'm not familiar.

LD Luca Cagnoni home run swing LD. I did not expect him to be on the board at all.

Beckett Hendrikson you seem to follow NTDP pretty closely.

Of course Minnitian

and then a bit further down.

Carter Sotheran RD, Big, fast, mean, skilled boxes ticked

Cam Allen RD(Boy oh boy did he drop),

Eric Pohlkamp RD what a WJAC

Curious other than Minnitian if there was another guy here you really wanted in the gap to Celebrini.

Ok I can comment on the players I'm familiar with. Ciernik was one I never paid too much attention to. Saw him a few times, liked what I saw; I had him in the 80s.

I was a Cam Allen detractor early in the season because I thought he was way over-hyped, but I still ended up with him around 50 on my final ranking (just ahead of Brzustewicz actually) so yeah, would have been a good pick in the 4th.

I was a pretty big Beckett Hednrickson fan most of the year. His skating is good, both in term of speed and agility, but not elite. IQ looks very good to me, very translatable. Good details, pretty good hands and passing ability. 6'2 but biggest drawback is he's 170 lbs. But the thing I like most is his game along the boards down low. Slight frame and loses his share of battles against higher level competition, but he's not just looking to dig pucks and chip it around, he's trying to spin off defenders, be evasive and make plays to the net out of the corners. I had him in the 60s.

6'6 over-age center Milton Oscarsson went at 167. I didn't have him ranked but I liked him at World Juniors. Axel Landen went at 130, he was another guy I was a big fan of this year; a defense-first 6'1 RHD, blocks shots, throws some big hits, but I also thought I saw flashes of pretty high-end puck-carrying. Had him in my 80s too.

July 3, 2023

On 6/28/2023 at 1:21 AM, HighOnHockey said:

Alright, I'll try finishing tomorrow, but this this may be as far as I get on my final mock. The parentheses with the personnel I expect to be most involved in making the pick were mostly just notes for myself, but I figured I'd leave them in, in case anyone is interested.

1. Chicago - Connor Bedard (Director of Amateur Scouting: Mike Doneghey) - Doesn't matter though, they're taking Bedard

2. Anaheim - Adam Fantilli (Directer of Player Evaluation: Bruce Franklin) - Again, probably wouldn't matter much who the scouts are behind the pick, Fantilli is the guy.

3. Columbus - Leo Carlsson (DAS: Ville Siren, ADAS: Trevor Timmins) - Timmins took Caufield early pretty recently, so there's some precedent for NTDP here, but Kekelainen seems to actively avoid drafting from that program. Besides, Carlsson seems to be the consensus BPA here.

4. San Jose - Will Smith (DAS: Chris Morehouse, DPP: Scott Fitzgerald) - Boston drafted incessantly out of the USHL and NTDP while Fitzgerald was there, so hard to imagine Smith falling past them here.

5. Montreal - Dalibor Dvorsky (DAS/DPP: Martin LaPointe, co-DAS: Nick Bobrov) - Maybe this is my personal bias showing, but they did take a Slovak first overall and another in the first round last year. Dvorsky feels like a Martin LaPointe kinda pick, although the same could be said for Leonard.

6. Arizona - Matthew Wood (GM: Bill Armstrong, DAS: Darryl Plandowski, ADAS: Ryan Jankowski) - These are tricky picks to predict. Between three old school Canadians at the helm, the tendencies scream CHL, but it seems a little early for any of the CHLers here. A trade-down seems likely, but if they're going to pick then Wood is my best guess, as both head scouts are based out of Western Canada, and the last two times Armstrong went outside of CHL in the first were collegiate players Logan Cooley and Tage Thompson.

7. Philadelphia - Ryan Leonard (AGM: Brent Flahr, DHO: Tom Minton) - This was the easiest decision since the first couple picks. Tom Minton has a close connection to the NTDP, Flahr has a long history drafting from the program, and the Torts-coached Flyers say they're looking for compete above all else in a draft pick. Not to mention he's the pretty clear BPA here.

8. Washington - Matvei Michkov (AGM: Ross Mahoney, DAS: Steve Bowman, DHO: Kris Wagner) All of the top guys running the draft have been there many years and had a ton of success, particularly out of Russia.

9. Detroit - David Reinbacher (DAS: Kris Draper, DES: Hakan Andersson) - They've picked overwhelmingly out of Europe with early picks since Yzerman took over. Mostly Sweden, but Seider came out of another secondary hockey market in Germany.

10. St. Louis - Colby Barlow (DAS: Tony Feltrin) - In 1999 Tony Feltrin and the Isles had three picks in the top ten and took all three out of the OHL. The Blues have also been hard after these heavy forwards lately (Snuggerud, Bolduc, Neighbors).

11. Vancouver - Tom Willander (GM: Patrik Allvin, DAS: Todd Harvey) - I have a feeling Gradin is going to be Allvin's number one guy. Looking like he hit it out of the park with another Swedish defenseman in Pettersson last year. Usually when a player skyrockets up Bob McKenzie's final ranking, they end up going even earlier on draft day.

12. Arizona - Nate Danielson - Again, the smart money is on a big forward out of Western Canada here.

13. Buffalo - Zach Benson (DAS Jerry Forton) - They have a pretty heavy core in place and went all skill with three firsts last year, including Benson's linemate Savoie at 9th overall.

14. Pittsburgh - Oliver Moore (DAS: Nick Pryor) - I mentioned before the Minnesota connection with their new head scout. Pretty good argument that Moore is BPA here, although Dubas doesn't have much of a track record drafting NTDP.

15. Nashville - Dimitri Simashev (AGM: Jeff Kealty) - Trotz said they wanna swing for the fences, well here you go.

16. Calgary - Gabe Perreault (DAS: Tod Button) - Arguably their two best picks under Button have been Adam Fox straight out of NTDP, and Matthew Tkachuk a year removed from it.

On 6/28/2023 at 12:02 PM, HighOnHockey said:

And here's the back half. Didn't put nearly as much time or effort as the first 16, largely because it was a lot of teams picking again so the research was already done.

17. Detroit - Axel Sandin-Pellikka

18. Winnipeg - Eduard Sale (DAS: Mark Hillier) - They don't mind taking flawed players with upside later in the first round.

19. Chicago - Brayden Yager

20. Seattle - Samuel Honzek (DAS: Robert Kron) - A strong European scouting staff but so far they've played it safe, picking mostly from North America. I'm sure covid didn't help. A European via CHL would be a great way to dip their toe in the water.

21. Minnesota - Daniil But (DAS: Judd Brackett)

22. Philadelphia - Gavin Brindley - Flahr drafts out of USHL and NTDP as much as anyone. I thought we were out of NTDPers for the first round but then I remembered Brindley. Seems like a Daniel Briere pick.

23. Rangers - Quentin Musty (DAS: John Lilley)

24. Nashville - Otto Stenberg

25. St. Louis - Calum Ritchie

26. San Jose - Mikhail Gulyayev

27. Colorado - Theo Lindstein (DAS: Wade Klippenstein, DHO: Scott Harris)

28. Toronto - Riley Heidt (DAS: Wes Clark, DPP: Dave Morrison)

29. St. Louis - Bradley Nadeau

30. Carolina - Andrew Cristall (AGM: Darren Yorke)

31. Colorado - Ethan Gauthier

32. Vegas - Oliver Bonk (DPP: Vaughn Karpan, ADPP: Bob Lowes, DAS: Scott Luce)

5/32. Not my best attempt, but sadly not my worst either. I had Bedard to Chicago, Smith to San Jose, Willander to Vancouver, Benson to Buffalo, and Sandin-Pellikka to Detroit. I guess the thing I'm pleased with myself about is predicting Benson and ASP would fall.

The shitty part is I had both Fantilli/Carlsson and Michkov/Leonard flipped, one spot off for each of them. That close to 9/32 which would have been my best mock ever.

July 2, 2023

I'm gonna say again, I don't think 2024 is the year to tank. It's a decently deep draft but not top heavy. You'll have almost as good a chance at a great player into the teens as you'll get at 1 or 2. I wanted to add though, 2025 looks like an absolute powerhouse of a draft. I've rarely seen a birthyear where so many of the best players are "late birthdays" (born after September 15) as 2006. The 2020 draft was pretty heavy on late birthdays and that was a large part of the reason it was such a strong draft - Lafreniere, Rossi, Quinn, Lundell, Holloway, Amirov, etc.

Looking at the top 2006-borns from each region in North America:

Ontario - As great as Senecke, Parekh and Mews are, little question in my mind September-born Malcolm Spence is the best 2006 Ontarian. Porter Martone is also really good and also late birthday.

Western Canada - I'm not as confident here but again an argument could be made that late birthday Jordan Gavin is the best prospect of this crop over Cayden Lindstrom, Charlie Elick, or Berkly Catton. Big Roger McQueen also looks like a potential top 10-calibre prospect.

Quebec - Gabriel D'Aigle got lit up at the U18s this year but he's super young. People seem to think he might be the next big Quebecois goaltender.

NTDP - Everyone knows what Eiserman can do now, but late birthday James Hagens is going to be special. All the hype will be about Michael Misa for 2025, but based on early viewings I think Hagens could challenge for top spot. Four late birthdays is the most I can recall seeing on this development program team, and they're all good. Dakoda Rheaume-Mullen looked like the best D on the team in my viewings, Logan Hensler is a 6'5 RHD who can skate. Shane Vansaghi is a big power forward who loves to throw the body and park in front of the net.

That's a bunch of high-end talent that misses the 2024 draft and will add to a pretty stacked 2007 class featuring elite prospects like Michael Misa, Brady Martin, Matthew Schaefer, Henry Brzustewicz, William Horcoff, William Moore, Donato Bracco, Jakob Ihs Wozniak, Filip Ekberg, Ivan Ryabkin.

So what to take from this? I dunno, it's an odd thing to base a team's strategy on, but I know some folks here are big on "tanking". 2024 would be a good year to make a run for a playoff spot. Even if you miss, I think your odds of getting a good player at 12 vs 1 aren't going to be drastically different. 2025 could be a year to look to add first round picks if things aren't going your way. Top 5 and 10 picks will be especially valuable, but picks well into the first round will be likely to yield good players.

June 30, 2023

4 hours ago, R3aL said:

Honestly with our roster holes tanking isn't out of the question.\

Even if we didn't get the Macklin or Eiserman

Getting Zeev BUIUM would be amazing.

We will see what they do this weekend signing sand trades if any.

I've been starting to try to figure out the 2024 draft. Probably not the year to tank. Lots of great players, but I'm not sure I see any runaway can't-miss first overall calibre picks. Reminds me a little of 2022 in that both were loaded on defense, and the gap between 1 and around 10 or 12 doesn't look all that significant. Celebrini had a dominant U18s, but so did Shane Wright. Both were mature for their age, physically and also in their two-way play. For myself I'd prefer more dynamic offense out of a first overall pick, and that brings me to Konsta Helenius. Wasn't as impressive at U18s as a smaller, offense-first kinda kid, but man is he fun to watch. Early viewings have me wondering if he might be a bit too much of a perimeter player. Eiserman is the most explosive athlete of the bunch but is he a little bit one-dimensional? Cayden Lindstrom is a 6'5 power forward with skill and quickness. Beckett Senneke is a playmaking power winger with elite vision and creativity. Cole Beaudoin is a smooth-skaing two-way power center. Emil Hemming is a pro-style goal-scoring winger. And Ivan Demidov is another super-skilled Russian.

I just realized I already had most of this year's top 5 sorted by this time last year (my June 2022 top six was Bedard, Michkov, Carlsson, Fantilli, Dvorsky, Smith). This year I have little idea. I think any of the forwards mentioned above could find their way at least into the top five, maybe top three.

And the defense is even tougher to get a read on. This year it took until pretty late in the season for anyone to start to get the D sorted because there weren't obvious bluechip defensemen to know who to put in the top 15. This year I'm having the opposite problem: too many standout defensemen. Zayne Parekh, Henry Mews and Cole Hutson are ridiculously fun to watch, but not sure any of them will be legit top ten picks for various reasons. Mews is the one I think maybe could go very early if he can sort some things out with his decision-making next season. But the two I suspect NHL scouts are going to love the most are Sam Dickinson and Adam Jiricek.

Hard to get a read on what's going to happen with Kiviharju. Looking at Benson this year, the supporters pointed to elite puck skills and hockey IQ, while detractors pointed to size and average skating - it will be the same argument with Kiviharju but amplified, as a smaller player who's not an elite skater is even more worrisome for a defenseman, but also his skill and IQ are at an even higher level than Benson's. I love Buium but at his size I don't think he's enough of a gamebreaker to be a top ten or fifteen pick. And I haven't really seen them myself but Stian Solberg and Artym Levshunov sound like they could be among scouts' favorites.

June 30, 2023

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

As stated in the title, let us know which players you would have selected in the positions available! The aim is to come back to this in 3-5 years and see how we all did!

I shall start!

Round 1

Pick 11: LW Zach Benson

Round 3

Pick 75: RW Jayden Perron

Pick 89: LD Luca Cagnoni

Round 4

Pick 105: RD Cam Allen

Pick 107: C Luca Pinelli

Pick 119: RD Arem Minnetian

Round 6

Pick 171: LW Timur Mukhanov

This is the first year I've been able to do a more in depth analysis and scouting work. Probably have pumped well over 100 hours of homework into this draft but most of it is on first round to second round talent. I don't have access to many games so I'm reliant on reports for later round picks, combined with shift by shift analysis if it's available and just general internet research. I was like a hardcore casual scout this year lol.

If you're familiar with these players you can tell I aim for upside as opposed to specific traits. Try to find good deals in the draft. Lots of these players are projects but have a bit of special something to their game and need something else to round out to turn into NHL players.

I'm confident with my top 2 picks despite being undersized forwards. Both are play drivers that have some great tools and good motors and good IQ. I would have also gambled on Ziemmer however being truthful to my order drafting Perron would have meant I couldn't have taken him for our second third round pick as he wasn't available (but had I cheated, I could have taken Ziemmer first and then Perron second).

From thereon out there's definitely more gambling going on. Go big or go home picks.

I really really really wish we had some 2nd round picks. So much potential fell into the 2nd round and we didn't have a single pick there. Oh well! Let me know how your picks would have gone!

I actually did a top 100 for fantasy purposes (probably a little different than how I'd actually rank them but not by that much) so just checking my list against who was on the board at each pick I'd have gone:

11. Eduard Sale

75. Juraj Pekarcik

89. Jayden Perron

105. Aram Minnetian

107. Cam Allen

119. Beckett Hendrickson

171. Connor Levis

June 29, 2023

4 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Im trying to sell myself on the pick, but its hard. He a 20 year old, smaller left handed winger/center, with uninspiring numbers (5th in team scoring). What do you like most about his game?

I think the point is not that we like or dislike these late picks. It's just that we don't know a thing about them so what are we talking about? For my part all I was getting at is that our scouts know the players a hell of a lot better than the journalists that put together the rankings we go off. How many viewings do you think Gradin and Hagelin had on Alriksson? Or Wyatt Smith, Frank Golden and Montalbano had on Perkins and Mueller? And then how many views do you think Scott Wheeler or Corey Pronman had on them? Again, I'm not trying to say lets just blindly trust our scouts or that I think any of these prospects will pan out. If you or Isam or Hammer or R3aL, etc. (don't wanna leave anyone out) say you've seen a prospect and you like or dislike them, that I can respect. But to say you like or dislike a pick because of their media rankings, I have no time for that.

June 29, 2023

1 minute ago, R3aL said:

You know every teams pro teams scouts had vastly different rankings. Benson ranged from 5-6 --> 14-17 on NHL team lists. even look at Bob Macs aggregate of 10 Scouts.

Media guys the majority of them dont dig too deep but they produce content to engage us fans.

Central scouting staff is just one team of scouts, and you could easily argue the are an inferior group to every NHL teams scouting team.

Its hard to get too upset with round 4-7 picks.

Even @HighOnHockey absolute favorite prospect from this draft to target in the 2nd round and on was availble to pick and hes not freaking out a bout it

If Mueller ends up being a bottom 6 C at some point for us down the road thats a big success for that pick range. I get taking big swings.

And there is something to be said about drafting and developing your own bottom 6 Cs and not having to go out and acquire them,

But we clearly had list and stuck to it and took our BPA's. Luckily it resulted in two RHD to start!

Lol yeah I didn't mean to attack Provost. His post was just the most recent of a bunch that were much more egregious. Was actually a decent post aside from the one comment where he was so confident that Alriksson would have gone through the draft if the Canucks hadn't picked him. Obviously there's no way of knowing that, and in fact scouts tend to talk among themselves at rinks and often have insight into what other teams might do, so if they take a player earlier than expected it could be because they know another scout for another team likes the player.

I guess my thing is if I know absolutely nothing about a topic I generally try to keep my mouth shut. And I always find it pretty annoying when people talk like they know shit about something they clearly know nothing about. But I guess it's a discussion forum so of course people are gonna say shit just to say something. But sometimes people do have actual interesting or informative things to say about these prospects, and it sucks that it gets buried under an avalanche of people talking just to talk.

June 29, 2023

4 minutes ago, Provost said:

Also that most of the other lists are done by people with significant hockey resumes and experience… not random bloggers.

If you say so.

June 29, 2023

Aidan Celebrini wasn't the only older brother of a future very early pick. The Rangers took 6'7 Dylan Roobroek, older brother of Ryan Roobroek, who was already 6'2 at 14 and dominating every level he's played. Probably not first overall in 2026 because of Gavin McKenna, but he should go very, very early.

June 29, 2023

Ugh, some of this stuff I'm reading is pretty embarrassing. "Duhhhh, the media rankings didn't have those guys ranked that high. Terrible picks. Those journalists obviously know way more than NHL scouts. All hail the media rankings."

I'm not going to be one of those people who says "just trust our scouts". But to assume that journalists know more than them is patently absurd.

June 29, 2023

5 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

In my opinion the top 5 team draft performances in 2023 (not in order) were:

Philly

Seattle

Washington (limited picks)

Columbus

Buffalo

They all knocked it out of the park

Loved Buffalo's draft too. I had Strbak and Wahlberg both ranked right on the cusp of the first round. Miedema at 109 was pretty stunning.

Also low-key loved what Dallas did with some late picks - Angus MacDonell is a competitor, it's about damn time someone drafted Tiefensee, Minnetian could be the gem of the draft, and Bertucci looks like he could have some upside too.

June 29, 2023

3 hours ago, Warhippy said:

correct me if I am wrong.

But Mueller as a DY+2 could have simply been offered a contract right? Same with Perkins if he didn't go in this draft? they'd have been essentially free players right?

He would have had to make it through the draft first. About 100 more picks from where he was taken...

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