SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

Yeah, it’s kind of an example of the stuff I hope we don’t see as much of this season. Even if OJ doesn’t make that hit, he’s facing a two-on-one, because of the failure of his teammates to do their job up ice. Every Canuck on the ice, save for Jake, has their man pretty effectively covered. Shouldn’t really have been a dangerous play, as they’re starting with good position, relative to the net, and have even numbers man-to-man. But it quickly turns into a mismatch, when Jake makes a bad read, and puts himself on the wrong side of the play. Hopefully between the personnel changes and Brad Shaw helping out on the X’s and O’s, we’ll see better structure and cohesion between the forwards and defence, especially when it comes to in-zone defending. That said, every individual player can make a bad read to get caught out of position, even when systems are locked down. So I can’t really say that specific clip represents a team/systems issue, rather than just one guy ****ing up. Just hoping we see a lot less of it this year. And when we do have breakdowns, hopefully they’re more infrequent and mostly about individual guys going “oops,” and less about a systemic permissibility in-zone, and forwards regularly leaving the D exposed and unsupported. But I’m sure that clip (and hundreds of others) have been looked at by the coaches. I guess we can call it a final contribution from Jake. Always the “team guy,” Virtanen left the Vancouver coaches with the parting gift of video they can use to teach our forwards what not to do in your own zone. Thanks Jake! Forever a Canuck.

So who’s getting signed next? Dickinson? I sort’ve always expected it to go OJ, Dickinson, Petey, Hughes, so we’ll see…

Exactly. Almost goes without saying that, even if Rathbone starts in Abby, he’ll be needed at some point, and will get NHL games, if only for injury relief. And there’s a pretty good chance Rathbone will earn his way up and take over an NHL spot sometime mid season, if his development continues to go well, and he puts together a strong year. I do like the idea of starting with the tandem of OJ and Brad Hunt as the 3LHD and 4LHD. Gives two very different looks and options. Juolevi has size and has shown some defensive acumen, especially on the PK. Hunt is small but has experience (nearly 200 NHL GP) and brings some real offensive ability. People shouldn’t sleep on Hunt. He’s a legit NHLer, albeit as 3rd pair/depth. But he can definitely come into the lineup when needed and provide an offensive spark. The guy’s put up pretty solid numbers in the bigs, especially when given extended stints and more significant icetime, and he’s an absolute monster at the AHL level (pretty much gives you a point per game as an AHL Dman).

So OJ 750K, Schenn 850K, and Poolman 2.5M. Or 4.1M total. Wonder if people would feel better if the deals were 1.15M, 1.15M, and 1.8M? Ignoring term, of course, but for next year anyway, people can at least pretend, if it makes them feel any better. (Also, when it comes to the signing, good move by OJ’s camp to make sure he’s coming in at a lower cap hit than both Rathbone and Hunt.)

Glad he’s heading back to Cornell. An extra year of USHL was probably his best choice during the pandemic (certainly better than sitting out the year), and he seems to have made the best of the situation, but getting back with the Big Red and playing ECAC is a much higher level of competition, and better for his development.

I think that’s an important point, if he’s in Abbotsford. Rathbone has the potential to be an all situations Dman. Of course, his strengths are always going to be on the offensive side of the game, but I think his defensive game could be developed into something that translates well to the NHL, as a two-way D who can be trusted with starts in 3 zones, can play both PP and PK, and even handle some matchup duties. I really like his toolkit and think he actually has some very good defensive instincts that could blossom under the right coaching and given the minutes and leeway to try and fail and eventually succeed. He’s also much stronger and physical than he’s given credit. So while he’s a smaller Dman, I think he can actually play a pretty aggressive and “rugged” game in the defensive zone. I’ve seen him handle much larger opponents at lower levels, and been able to use his body to control, move, and contain players in the key areas of his own zone. And just given the makeup of our NHL D corps, with Hughes and now OEL, that final LHD spot is probably going to need to go to a guy who can handle some PK duties, defensive starts at 5v5, and even some shutdown/matchup work. So it’s a really good idea for Rathbone to commit to doing whatever he can this season to prove himself as a player Green will eventually trust in some of those roles. Rathbone’s high end skating, puckmoving, hockey IQ, and shot should be enough to earn him a regular NHL lineup spot (eventually), as an offensive/puckmoving 3rd pairing D and 2PP option. But if he can also demonstrate real NHL caliber defensive value, I think he could become a legitimate top-4, all situations, two-way D, with a long and successful career in the NHL.

Definitely true, until last season. McDavid made a commitment to getting better defensively, and I think he made good progress. He’s never going to win the Selke, but last year, I think he was pretty close to neutral value defensively, which was a major improvement for him. He probably used to give back nearly half the offence he created, just by his shoddy defence, but that seems to be something he’s now cleaning up in his game.

Agree to a point on Draisaitl, but with McDavid, I’m thinking anything under league max (20% of cap) was him sort of leaving money on the table. (I think in his contract year, league max would’ve been a hair under $16M.) I mean, who else deserves league max, if not the guy general viewed as the consensus best player in the world? And when you look at the values on some of the analytics models, like evolving hockey’s SPAR, McDavid’s on-ice contributions on his current $12.5M AAV contract come out at an average of $16.5 million per season (or $4M surplus value per season).

It really has the potential to be the silver lining of last season. 2020-21 was a painful experience for us fans, but hopefully the payoff will be Benning getting good value on those pending extensions, ensuring some contending years for this young core, and good times for everyone in Canuckland.

I don’t think Hughes (or his agent) would expect that kind of a deal. The market still operates under a flawed system where UFA years are more valuable than RFA years, and we haven’t really seen things adjust to reality. The market has shifted to more appropriately reward RFA years, with many young star players signing big second deals that more adequately reward them for their prime playing years. What hasn’t happened (yet) is the market correcting for the true value of UFA years. We continue to see the overpayment of players signing extensions at ages 26-30, with very high cap hits and lengthy terms, even though the vast majority of those players will decline through those contracts, and many (especially in the recent crop) will likely end up negative value over their term. I think eventually things will balance out, and you’ll see players make their really big money during the years when they are actually returning maximum value on the ice (ie: ages 20-27, give or take). But we’re not there yet. Anyway, back to Hughes… Makar has set the market, when it comes to second contracts on young Dmen without many market comparables (if any, as, for the most part, as these guys are pretty unique). Hughes, even if he’d had a similar season last year to the previous one (where he battled for the Calder), would probably come in at something slightly lower, like maybe $8-8.5M x 6 years, just based on the Makar comparison. That’s if Hughes had maintained his 2019-20 performance levels. But after having an off year last season, Hughes’s value should be set even lower. He hasn’t proven himself in back to back years like Makar has, so Hughes can’t really command the same dollars. And right or wrong, the market still doesn’t really compare RFAs/10.2.c’s in their early twenties to UFAs in their mid-late twenties. Inferior UFA aged players will still get paid more than the superior RFA aged players. And probably even more so when it’s a 10.2.c “black box” player like Hughes. He just doesn’t have the leverage. And the market just doesn’t work that way. The market is overheated though, and I’m sure the Avs are happy they got Makar done early, rather than later. Had they waited, who knows what he could command? There were no market comparables for Makar, so it was always kind of pulling numbers out of thin air. On pure value, however, the analytics say Makar is already worth $14-15M per season, and his age curve could put him at $20M value in his very peak prime years. So $9M for Makar is money very well spent. Quinn Hughes, at the moment (especially after last season), comes in significantly lower than Makar, by the analytics. And even by just basic stats, or just by the “eye test,” he’s just not considered to be in the same tier as Makar. At least not right now. I’m still very bullish on Hughes and I think his 2019-20 season is closer to his real value (and that season, he was very close to Makar, and well within the highest tier of NHL Dmen). But track record and proven performance is what really counts, and last season definitely set Hughes back and cooled off his value. So now the Canucks have the benefit of using the Makar deal as a value cap. There’s really no way for Hughes’s camp to argue in good faith that Hughes deserves more money than Makar. And the Canucks could argue that Hughes should be significantly lower, based on the side-by-side performance of Makar vs. Hughes, over the past two seasons. Even with the overheated market and ridiculous deals we're seeing, I just don’t see Hughes getting pushed up into that $9M+ tier. Maybe if Huggy’d had a great season in 2020-21, earned Norris consideration, and put himself in that very elite tier currently occupied by only a handful of other NHL Dmen, he’d be looking at some Makar level money. But fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on how you look at it), he just didn’t have that kind of season last year, and it cooled off his value, and likely brought his asking price down to something more reasonable (which is good news for the Canucks).

That Makar deal was a steal the day it was signed. With what’s happened in the market since, it’s absolute robbery.

Do you mean a player or staff? I’m generally against the idea of adding a player, especially under the NHL cap, just because they share a cultural background with another player. Players should be signed because of what they can bring on the ice and contribute to the team. As for staff, I’m all for CSE hiring more people, and I think it would be good to have a wide diversity of staff, including people from shared backgrounds with some of the foreign players, who could help them to acclimate, and just be around certain players, should they start to feel a bit homesick or somewhat alienated. I think having a Russian on staff when Tryamkin was here would’ve been a good idea, and might have avoided some of the problems. I’ve always been a believer in teams spending money off-cap to gain any kind of edge possible. And when it comes to top prospects coming from different cultural backgrounds, I think it could be money well spent, just having someone around on staff who can bring a little bit of “home” to a young man’s first taste of life abroad. On the other hand, it’s also important for these guys to assimilate, and especially, to really start to gel with their teammates. For some people, the best approach is to just throw them in the deep end, and let them find their own way (this can be especially true with learning new languages and cultures). Klimovich and Podkolzin can both already speak English at a decent level conversationally, and they both seem to be confident and outgoing people, and pretty level headed (although Klimovich maybe can be a little unbalanced on the ice), so I’d expect they’ll quickly become “one of the guys” on their teams just by being around the other players, and not necessarily need somebody from their homeland to help them get comfortable in North America.

No doubt AV is a good hockey man, and I trust his analysis, as a coach, about 1000000% more (give or take a few zeroes) than whatever stats Twitterheads like JD Burke regurgitate in any given week. That said, I do think Myers has potential and see some promise in his numbers. And much as I love AV, there’s always a player or two that get on his bad side and suffer for it, sometimes unjustly. Not necessarily saying Myers is one of them. Just a factor I’d considered.

Yeah, I think when it comes to CHL/NHL Agreement (the age 20 AHL rule), that only applies to players with the draft status as CHL players, which Klimovich isn’t, as he’s been deemed a European drafted player. So, he’s exempt from the age 20 rule, and can play in the AHL from age 18. If he’s loaned to the QMJHL, he won’t suddenly get locked into an AHL age 20 requirement, as his draft status is already determined, so the CHL/NHL agreement shouldn’t come into play. And players under NHL contracts can be recalled from their CHL teams, even mid season, so I’d imagine the Canucks could pull him out of the QMJHL whenever they wanted (not sure exactly—usually you need an emergency recall, and certain circumstances to pull kids out of junior during the season, but there might be even more flexibility with Klimovich, with his status). EDIT: In any case, if they decide to send Klimovich to the Q for this season, I’d bet they’d probably just leave him there for the full year, and then maybe bring him back to the NHL/AHL after his junior season ended. And then next season, they’d start over again and determine where he’ll play based on how he looks at training camp.

Can’t help liking this trade more, after seeing the Jones trade and extension, Werenski extension, and Ristolainen trade, among others. While I certainly wouldn’t turn down having either either Jones or Werenski on my team, I’m not sure I’d take either of those contracts, even compared to OEL at $7.26M. I mean Jones had an objectively worse year last season than OEL. In fact, Jones’ 2020-21 analytics are worse than any season in OEL’s career. And Jones has never had a season close to OEL’s god-like 2015-16 season. And even OEL’s 2017-18 year, by the analytics, was better than any season in Jones’s career to-date. If OEL rebounds to anything even close to his prime levels, he may be better than Jones, even while three years older. Nevermind OEL now being $2+ million cheaper per season (once the Jones extension kicks in), and his contract ending 3 years before Jones’s massive deal mercifully expires.

Really hard to figure out their right side depth chart. You’ve got Alexandre Carrier, who’s hardly a high profile player, but just came off playing 25+ minutes a game for them during the playoffs. Phillippe Myers, who’s highly underrated and a bit of a stats darling, and coming out of AV’s doghouse in Philly. He could be primed for a breakout season in a new environment. And Fabbro, who hasn’t necessarily impressed much to-date, but has the best pedigree of the bunch, and is just hitting the age where you expect his game to come together. Put their names in a hat and draw for the D order. Probably as good a chance of being right as anything I could offer.

He’s been pretty meh on the analytics side. Below replacement player, at least by fancy stats (for what it’s worth). On the other hand, he’s a young, mobile, RHD, with a very good set of tools, and has the pedigree of being a first round pick. He’s averaged around 19 minutes a game the last couple seasons. And at age 23, he should be just about to enter his prime.

I wish NHL D’s would defend Boes like #88 (Clayton Phillips?) does in that clip. Brock would probably score 200 goals a season.

Yeah, I just posted them as a play on “devil tatar” but I might actually have to try making that recipe sometime.

Yeah, they’re quite similar statistically. I think Dickinson will earn a slight premium from being able to play centre, which tends to be a higher value position than wing. I’d be very happy with something between $2-2.5M AAV for Dickinson, or really anything under $3 million, depending on the term.

https://sarahsvegankitchen.com/recipes/deviled-potatoes/

Yeah, definitely. If he continues to progress on the offensive side, and also refines his defence, this deal is going to be a huge bargain. Even just last season, he valued out around $2M, so literally any positive development and improvement to his game and he’ll be very good value on this deal.

Bargain deal at 2x$4.5M if his next two seasons are anything like his previous three in Montreal. The stats say he gives his team an extra 3-4 standings points above replacement per season, which works out to a player value between $5-8 million per season.

Nice deal for the Pens. And hopefully a helpful comp for negotiations with Dickinson.

It’s my understanding that most Belarusians are completely fluent in Russian, but not all can speak Belarusian. The way I’ve heard it described is somewhat similar to Ireland and the Irish language. Speaking Russian in Belarus is like speaking English in Ireland. And speaking Belarusian is somewhat similar to speaking Irish (Irish Gaelic). The majority of Belarusians can probably speak some Belarusian, but fewer can actually read it, and very few can write in Belarusian. On the other hand, nearly every Belarusian is fluent in Russian, and most Belarusians prefer to speak Russian at home, at work, and in the street. Almost all of their media is in Russian, and the vast majority of their books are printed in Russian. Education is also almost entirely in Russian. (UNESCO even rates Belarusian as a “vulnerable” language. They report only 4 million people on the planet can actually speak Belarusian, despite Belarus having a population of 9.5 million, and there being a diaspora of another 3.5 million Belarusians scattered around the world.) EDIT: Bringing this back to Klimovich, I’d expect he’ll have no problem conversing in Russian with Podkolzin. Although Danila’s English is actually surprisingly good, so he may choose to speak mostly English with Vasili (who is also getting pretty good at English, and looking to improve), and then maybe they’ll fall back on Russian when needed.