SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

The Canucks (assuming the RFAs get extended and there’s no Petey offer sheet) are on their way to having a forward group, especially through their top-9, that can compete with any team in the league, and is almost certainly going to be one of the best, if not the best, in their division. The defence is more of a question mark, with plenty of unknowns. Will Hughes have a massive bounce back year? Will OEL recover his game? How much of an effect will Brad Shaw have on overall Dman performance? How will the new signings fit in, find chemistry, and gel with their partners? How good will Juolevi be? And what about Rathbone? Will Myers be able to capably partner one the LHDs? Will Myers work with OEL? If everything goes well, the new look defence could be significantly improved. But there are quite a few moving pieces and it’s hard to predict how everything will shake out. Forwards and goaltending: this is a playoff caliber team, easily. Defence? Hard to say right now. I’m hopeful, but we will need a lot of factors to fall in our favour for this to be a playoff caliber defensive group. We’ll probably get in, just based on the weakness of the division. As to whether or not we can make any noise, that’ll come down to how good (or bad) the defensive group is, and then the usual factors, like puck luck, injuries, goaltending, and just the team getting hot at the right time.

Coming from a pretty pro-analytics guy, I’d say that even the best metrics are generally only giving you about half the picture on the value of any given player, and a little less when it comes to Dmen, and even less when it’s a defensive Dman. These are very useful tools, but they have their limitations. And while I’m actually a fan of guys like JFresh, and think he does a good job creating very accessible snapshots that give people a good sense of some of the underlying data, I’d never recommend using those charts (or any chart/stat/etc) as a single measure of either past/current value, or future performance predictions. It’s just not that simple. Poolman, as I see him, is a capable defensive Dman with good size, and RH shot, who can be relied upon for middle pairing minutes, with fairly tough deployment, and against higher end competition. $2.5M is a fair AAV for this kind of player. I don’t like the four year term, but I’d probably have issues with any signing in his age group getting that term, unless they are considered higher end talents (which he’s not), or it’s an absolute bargain AAV (which it’s also not). But at the same time, it’s not like we haven’t seen comparable players getting similar term, so it’s probably just the market, and can’t really fault anyone in particular (it’s kind of everyone’s fault, when it comes to the shot callers, both GMs and agents ). I think Poolman will be a useful player here and should earn his money, based on what a player of his profile can provide to a team, and especially, what this particular team, in the Canucks, needed added to their D corps. It’s not my favourite piece of work by this GM, but I’m certainly not bothered by it either. And putting the contract aside, I like the player and like the idea of adding Poolman to the group.

We’ll find out, but going back to his college vitals, UND listed him at 6’4” and 217 lbs during his junior season. Colleges have been known to tweak the heights a little high (rounding up mostly), but usually the weights are pretty accurate. I’d expect he’s at least 6’3” and most likely 6’4”, and in the 215-220 lbs range. I mean, back when he played USHL with Omaha, he was listed at 6’3” and 194 lbs. I doubt he’s shrunk since 2014, so probably the Elite Prospects numbers (6’4” 216 lbs) are closest to accurate for him these days.

And the Canucks re-cropped the photo, and don’t show those knuckles, on their Twitter and official release. Hmm…

Yeah, the issue was always the contract. Well, that and the original trade, where we added assets to acquire arguably the inferior player in Sutter, (Bonino has proven more valuable over time, and many of us felt that way from the start), and a higher salary. But that’s all water under the bridge. Sutter has never been a bad player. He’s consistently been a positive on-ice asset, and one who also brought significant additional value for this team off the ice. Even by the analytics, he’s only had one season of negative WAR, and is +8 wins and +44 goals above replacement, over his career. The problem was that he was probably about $2 million AAV overpaid. That certainly wasn’t Sutter’s fault. His agent just did well for his client (or maybe Jim did poorly). But now at $1.125M, Sutter is probably underpaid for the first time in his career (at least since his ELC), and that can only benefit the Canucks, who definitely needed to find bargains wherever they could, when it comes to cap hits vs. player value, and filling out the final spots on this roster. Perfect signing for 4C.

Nice depth signing. Di Giuseppe has played some 200+ NHL games and been up for some pretty solid NHL stints. Definitely a capable bottom-sixer, if he’s needed to step in, and otherwise will be a strong player for Abby. He also owns some pretty strong defensive underlying numbers at the NHL level.

He played a fair amount of his first Rockets season with Madison Bowey, if memory serves. Wonder if we’ll see them reunited in Abby?

Nobody’s posting the fight? This was his first NHL game. Burroughs has been in a number of quality scraps, both AHL and NHL, and seems willing to trade punches with just about anyone who challenges him (even much bigger guys like Trent Frederic or Chris Stewart).

I think so. If they’re going to sign him now and have the option, might as well take full control over his development, rather than entrust another organization, either KHL or CHL, and hope they do right by him. The Canucks are obviously high on him and think they’ve got a future NHLer in Klimovich. I think Cull and his staff could put him on the right path. And contracts still slide in the AHL, so his 3 year ELC could be extended as long as 5 years (with it sliding twice).

Just post here, bud: Necrobumping a 2020 thread titled “Lightning re-sign Luke Schenn” is just going to confuse people.

Thanks for looking it up, I was going to do the same later, but hadn’t had the time yet. This fits with my understanding, and also what I’ve seen of Danila’s status as a “European” prospect, when it comes to his NHL draft status, and resulting rules, as to contracts, agreements, and AHL eligibility. It’s still interesting though. I think there might be another clause when it comes to a player who gets loaned to Europe, while under contract in the CHL, but that might only apply when the player has previously played games in a CHL season (I think in some situations, such a player is deemed a CHL prospect). But in Danila’s case, it would appear that he’s AHL eligible, should the Canucks choose that path.

My mistake, and apologies, that information wasn’t in the post I replied to. I didn’t read your earlier post, and wasn’t aware of that specific detail (signed CHL contract). It’ll be interesting to see if and what kind of ruling is made on his status, as I can see a case for it going either way. It doesn’t appear that the Huskies loaned him back, so I’d be curious if the CHL contract he signed was still considered valid for his draft season, or was voided. Certainly the Huskies maintain CHL rights, either way, but the question is who truly held contractual rights for his draft season, and whether he falls under the category of European or CHL prospect.

I know it’s a typo but I got a out of the idea of Benning fining himself and the Canucks.

He’s not subject to the age 20 requirement, as he was drafted as a European prospect. The Rouyn-Noranda Huskies of the QMJHL hold his CHL rights, after selecting him in the 2020 CHL Import Draft, but since he wasn’t playing there, and didn’t have an agreement with any CHL team, when drafted (to the NHL), then the age 20 rules (as set out in the CHL-NHL Agreement) don’t apply to him. The only age limit that applies to him is the one in the AHL bylaws, which states that the minimum age for AHL eligibility is “18 years or over, on or before September 15th of each season of competition.” It’s basically the same rules that allowed William Nylander to play in the AHL as a teenager. The Mississauga Steelheads selected Nylander in the 2014 CHL Import Draft, but he never played there, and went from Sweden to the AHL. Following his NHL entry draft in 2014, and signing an NHL ELC later that summer, Nylander went on to play for the Toronto Marlies in the 2014-15 AHL season at age 18.

Could prove to be great option to develop him in Abbotsford, instead of the KHL or CHL.

Fair deal for both sides. Potential for this to be a steal, but you don’t necessarily bank on potential. Based on what Garland has shown so far, specifically his past two seasons, I valued him at about $5.5-6M AAV for the next 3-4 years, and then maybe a bit less for the final 1-2 years of his deal, as I’d expect somewhere around 3 years of peak performance from Garland, and then a slight dropoff, based on his age, and other factors like size, play style, and durability/wear-and-tear. I like the deal. It’s not necessarily a huge bargain, based on some of the market comparables, but the AAV still comes in at less than the value Garland has already shown, and the term should see him through his remaining prime years. No trade protections or bonuses are attached, and the deal is slightly backloaded, which are all nice features on a contract that’s already coming in at a reasonable AAV. I would have loved to have seen a real bargain deal, like maybe $3.75M x 4 years, but was definitely expecting something right around $5M AAV for this player. I expect Garland’a performance levels to meet or exceed the value of his contract over the life of this deal, with a decent enough chance for him to dramatically out-perform his AAV, especially when it comes to the first 2-3 years, if he’s able to really click with our players in the top-six. Would not be surprised to see Garland perform at a level closer to that of an $8M value player at his peak, if everything goes as well as possible. Not banking on it, but the potential is there.

Someone with more knowledge of Belarusian hockey can correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the league has only existed for about 15 years or so, and while there have been plenty of quality Belarusian NHLers over the years, most of them probably came up through the Russian (or Soviet, going back earlier) system. Also, there hasn’t necessarily been a stable level of quality to that league, so comparing stats from past players might not be too informative, unless you’re running those numbers through a model that accounts for several factors (and even then, sample sizes probably make it difficult to establish good equivalency factors). This is a big reason why we should probably ignore any kind of analytics chart for Klimovich that claims to predict his chances of NHL success or his NHL equivalent points, based on his Belarusian league play, because those numbers are not likely to provide much value. With other league systems, I have a lot of time for analytics and equivalency models, but in this case, you have to trust the scouts and eyeballs on the player, and hope that they’re right, because the numbers IMO aren’t really going to provide great value, especially when looking for NHL comparables.

Canucks should at least kick tires on Nick Bonino, just to see how cheap he might be available. It might be a little weird bringing him back, but I doubt there are any bad feelings from the Sutter trade, and I’m sure Bonino’s Cup rings make it all water under the bridge. Bonino is still good for about a half point per game, drives play, is solid at both ends, wins faceoffs, can play C or W, is great on the PK, and since turning 30 has actually had some of his best seasons, by the analytics, averaging 2 wins above replacement over each of the past three years. I’m seeing predictions of around $2M AAV for his next contract, which would be a bargain, especially if it’s the short term deal, and he can maintain recent performance levels.

I have a fair amount of anxiety too, but now that OEL is a Canuck, I’m switching to optimistic mode.

I’ll be hitting these draft pick threads eventually. The draft this year fell on the same date as my twins’ birthday. And we’ve had a two day extravaganza of family parties and kids’ friends parties (basically making up for the “lost year” of 2020 when the pandemic meant that my kids had zero birthday parties to either host or attend). I’m finishing off hosting the final party at an adventure theme park place with 20 kids, and then I think I’m going to come home and die (more likely sleep). Plan to post stuff about the draft picks tomorrow, or late tonight, after a good nap.

I’m optimistic that a coaching staff led by Travis Green will make a big difference. Green is known as a player’s coach, is well liked, and especially seems to maintain good relationships with NHL veterans. Add in defenceman whisperer Brad Shaw, and you have a really good situation for OEL. And certainly any change will be an improvement, as the relationship between OEL and the Arizona staff was really not good the last few years, especially with head coach Rick Tocchet.

I was responding to a post about the potential of adding Dougie Hamilton, in which case, keeping Myers at $6M does become a bit of an issue. And with the sea change of OEL coming in, and then hypothetically adding Hamilton as well, re-signing Hughes, adding a defensive RHD partner for Huggy (Hamonic or other), and having Juolevi and Rathbone in the mix, I think that last D spot on the right side needs to be filled with a cheaper option, and ideally a defensive minded Dman (which Myers is not), with size and physicality, who can support and shelter either Rathbone or Juolevi. Also, the third pair in this scenario would probably barely get any minutes, as between OEL-DH and the Hughes pairing, there’s probably very little remaining 5v5 icetime for the third pair. A $6M Myers in that kind of D order becomes an expensive luxury piece and one who IMO doesn’t provide nearly enough team value to justify the expenditure against the cap. (Of course, this is all based on a hypothetical where Dougie Hamilton is added, which is unlikely to happen. However, I also thought dumping all three of Eriksson, Roussel, and Beagle was pretty unlikely, especially in one trade, so who knows? )

I didn’t think it was possible before, but seeing some of the trades this year, I actually think there might be a way to move Myers at his full cap hit, if it’s basically just for future considerations. Or use assets from the Schmidt trade to sweeten Myers. I think both of them could be cleared off the books, and if it means Hamilton coming in (I think and OEL-Hamilton first pairing could really work), I would be fine with zero net assets on Schmidt+Myers, and just a pure cap dump. Myers also had a pretty good season, at least by his standards. And he’s viewed much more positively by a lot of people than his analytics suggest.

If we were/are chasing Dougie, I’d actually trade both Schmidt and Myers, and then sign Hamilton and Hamonic with the ~$12M in freed cap space (ideally with some change left over). And look to add another RHD (maybe in the mode of a Hakanpaa, Ceci, etc) for the third pair. We don’t really need a $6M Myers on the third pairing.