pimpcurtly Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Contrary to popular belief, foreshocks are usually relative to the size of the earthquake. The 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake had a 7.3 forshock in 2002. Also, the most destructive types of Earthquakes are megathrust (like the one in Japan this year) which is what the big one will be. It depends on where you live really, Richmond should be worried about drowning, Vancouver should be worried about crumbling and the valley should be worried about suffocating from Mt. Baker erupting. What about the island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliboy Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 (edited) The island is going to take the worst of it on the Canadian coast. If you look at what happened to the Japanese coastal communities right in the path of the tsunami, it could be much worse than that as this quake could be 3x bigger. Edited September 13, 2011 by aliboy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetcoaster Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 The island is going to take the worst of it on the Canadian coast. If you look at what happened to the Japanese coastal communities right in the path of the tsunami, it could be much worse than that as this quake could be 3x bigger. We had one major tsunami already that hit the west coast of Vancouver Island recent history. The Great Alaskan Earthquake of March 28, 1964 generated a tsunami and serious damage occurred at Alberni and Port Alberni which are situated at the head of a 35 mile long inlet. The tsunami travel time to Port Alberni was 4.1 hrs. As reported in the aftermath of the tsunami: Tsunami Effects The shape and configuration of the inlet were the reason for the extensive flooding that occurred at Alberni and Port Alberni. The first wave to reach the head of the inlet caused major flooding but was not particularly damaging. It served as a warning for people to evacuate. It was the second wave - almost an hour later - that came with much greater force and caused the greater damage by carrying homes and cars inland. A total of 375 dwellings were damaged, with 55 being totally lost. Loss of Lives and Damages There was no loss of lives on Vancouver Island or anywhere else in Canada. Damage was estimated at $ 10 million (1964 dollars). (My note in 2011 terms the damage would be over $70 million.) Here are some photos of the damage at Port Alberni from the British Columbia Provincial Emergency Program More photos: http://www.pep.bc.ca/hazard_preparedness/photo/alberni_tsunami_1964_gallery/Frame.htm In Alaska: The combination of the earthquake and tsunami waves practically destroyed five of Alaska's seven largest communities. A total of 106 people lost their lives. Damage was estimated at $84 million (1964 dollars - 2011 dollars $60 million). Alaska's fishing industry and most of its seaport facilities were either completely destroyed or severely crippled. http://www.drgeorgepc.com/Tsunami1964PrWilliam.html The tsunami generated also hit California (Crescent City was hardest hit and 11 people were killed) and Hawaii little damage and no loss of life: http://www.drgeorgepc.com/Tsunami1964Calif.html http://www.drgeorgepc.com/Tsunami1964Hawaii.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliboy Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 I am aware of this, the tsunami we will soon be dealing with will be generated much closer to Vancouver island than the one from Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Langdon Algur Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 I am aware of this, the tsunami we will soon be dealing with will be generated much closer to Vancouver island than the one from Alaska. since most of the Islands population is on the sheltered East side of the island we should be ok tsunami wise, the quack itself will have a more devasating impact however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iron_Gland Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 With the issue of tsunami's, wouldn't the island block most of the tidal waves from hitting the mainland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliboy Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 I believe that this is the show that has the mud core data, very new information. http://watch.discoverychannel.ca/discovery-presents/monster-quake-are-we-there-yet/ If you haven't yet, watch this program, it is the latest scientific data regarding was has happened over and over in the past and what is about to happen very soon. Scientists are right back to the drawing board and their jaws are in their laps over this new information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahma Bull Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 (edited) If you haven't yet, watch this program, it is the latest scientific data regarding was has happened over and over in the past and what is about to happen very soon. Scientists are right back to the drawing board and their jaws are in their laps over this new information. I have these signs in my town on the island. I remember someone posting a tsunami hazard map for british columbia, but i can't find where it is. Edited September 13, 2011 by The Brahma Bull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustJokinen! Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 since most of the Islands population is on the sheltered East side of the island we should be ok tsunami wise, the quack itself will have a more devasating impact however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliboy Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Here is footage of the tsunami that hit anchorage back in 64, this is what I expect or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Langdon Algur Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 opps I see what you did there good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avelanch Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 wouldn't it depend where the quake was located? if it was located closer to the mainland/between the mainland and the island wouldn't the east side of the island get destroyed by the tsunami? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliboy Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 We know that the fault is off the coast of the Island, but if a wave is generated just north enough to aim the wave down the straight it could be a problem. It really depends on the size of the quake, if it's 8.8 to 9.0 we might be ok, but if it's 9.2 to 9.4, which could happen, then who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comfortably_Numb Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 since most of the Islands population is on the sheltered East side of the island we should be ok tsunami wise, the quack itself will have a more devasating impact however. The waves will propagate and hit the east coast, if it is as big as its supposed to be, Victoria is fracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetcoaster Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 The waves will propagate and hit the east coast, if it is as big as its supposed to be, Victoria is fracked. Seems unlikely. The best available science suggests that residents in the Victoria area plan for tsunami impacts within 4 metres elevation of the normal highest tide. Because of the underwater topography in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, tsunamis created elsewhere in the Pacific Ocean are not likely to affect properties in Greater Victoria beyond the high water that normally comes with severe winter storms. Likewise, minor or moderate earthquakes in the vicinity of Greater Victoria will not likely generate a destructive tsunami. ... Tsunamis are rare, but dangerous events. Scientists and technical experts agree that areas around Greater Victoria are not seriously threatened by tsunamis. (source: PEP website)http://www.victoria.ca/cityhall/pdfs/departments_veptsn_brchr.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pimpcurtly Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 The island is going to take the worst of it on the Canadian coast. If you look at what happened to the Japanese coastal communities right in the path of the tsunami, it could be much worse than that as this quake could be 3x bigger. I am in Nanaimo so I am hoping that Newcastle, Protection and Gabriola Islands help soften the blow of a possible tsunami. I always thought, though, that because the strait isn't open ocean like the other recent devastating tsunami's, we wouldn't see the same impact here on the east side of the island. That is kinda what I always thought but have absolutely zero evidence or proof to back that theory up. At any rate, the minute I feel that "big one", I will immediately B-line for Mount Benson(drive, run, crawl, whatever). That is my safety plan...just hope I'm not dead or trapped under some debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahma Bull Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I am in Nanaimo so I am hoping that Newcastle, Protection and Gabriola Islands help soften the blow of a possible tsunami. I always thought, though, that because the strait isn't open ocean like the other recent devastating tsunami's, we wouldn't see the same impact here on the east side of the island. That is kinda what I always thought but have absolutely zero evidence or proof to back that theory up. At any rate, the minute I feel that "big one", I will immediately B-line for Mount Benson(drive, run, crawl, whatever). That is my safety plan...just hope I'm not dead or trapped under some debris. landslide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliboy Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Tsunamis are rare, but dangerous events. Scientists and technical experts agree that areas around Greater Victoria are not seriously threatened by tsunamis. (source: PEP website)http://www.victoria.ca/cityhall/pdfs/departments_veptsn_brchr.pdf This is no longer credible information as the experts have admitted that they were completely wrong about Japan, and have just now gone right back to the drawing board regarding what is possible. For instance, it is possible that Vancouver Island could drop, just as the coast of Japan did, and this alone will change the equation. I do agree that Victoria is to some extent protected but it all depends on the size of this event when it happens. We could see these theories go out the window just as they did in Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliboy Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 (edited) Quakes have hit off Cuba, Japan and New Zealand. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/15/magnitude-6-quakes-hit-off-cuba-japan-and-new-zealand/?hpt=hp_t2 Edited September 15, 2011 by aliboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliboy Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 I've heard that there has also been a quake off Port Alice on Vancouver Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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