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[Updated Article] A Tale of Two Tenders: what do the numbers mean for the Canucks future


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#1 coleycanuck

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 10:07 AM

I appreciate some of the feedback that has been taking place, but my concern is that most people have only read the first two paragraphs I posted, and did not continue through the link to finish the entire article. My point is less about playoff performance comparison- these are just some basic numbers that I decided to begin with- and more about how the rest of the team seems to play in front of Schneider vs. Luongo. I have pasted the entire article below now, please read the last three paragraphs if you have not already done so, and feel free to comment on my conclusion.




"The greatest difference going into the Vancouver Canuck's 2012/13 season will be in net, as this organization has been lucky enough to have two franchise goaltenders on the roster for too long now, and due to both Cory Schneider's looming RFA status and the way things ended for Roberto Luongo last season, it has become clear that only one goalie will remain a Canuck come September. There has been much talk of Luongo being traded over the summer, and many opinions on the matter, but there has been a lack of analysis on each player's numbers, how they differ, and what they mean for the Canuck's future.

Let's start with the basics- in the last two seasons (since Schneider has shared duties with Luongo), #1 and #35's GAA have been 2.26 and 1.86 respectively. When we enter the playoffs, Luongo's GAA rises 11% to 2.52, while Schneider's falls 26% to 1.38. This is where we begin to see the differences between the two goaltender's games, and the gap only widens from here. The standard deviation (degree to which each game is near the goalie's average GAA) between the two goaltenders is quite comparable throughout an entire season, but when we isolate the playoffs, Schneider's SDfallsby 34%, from 1.39 to 0.91, meaning be becomes more consistent, and Luongo's playoff standard deviationincreasesby 31%, from1.41 to 1.85, showing less consistency. We have seen this empirically throughout the years, but the numbers make our convictions abundantly clear.


The statistics don't stop here- when we look closely at the differences between GAA and SV% between the two goaltenders we find an intriguing detail. As mentioned, the GAA move in opposite directions for each goaltender when they enter the playoffs, however, the SV% remains virtually the same for each. Luongo's SV% only worsens by 2%, while his GAA worsens by 11%. This means he is saving nearly the same proportion of shots (although, not on a consistent basis, according to his SD), but is allowing more, thus he has to be facing more shots. Schneider's save percentage remains unchanged in playoffs, but his GAA improves by 26%, meaning he is saving the same proportion, but is facing less shots on average. This suggests that the team as a whole plays better defensively when Schneider is in net, by allowing less shots on net, and this theory can be confirmed by comparing shots against in the past two years. It turns out that on average, Schneider faces 14% less shots than Luongo, and although there are many possible explanations for this phenomenon, the fact is that during the last two seasons, the Canucks have been more defensively responsible when Schneider is behind them.

So what does this mean for the Canucks going forward if they choose Cory Schneider as the future goaltender of the franchise? Well, during last year's playoffs, it began evident that the Canucks held more trust in Schneider than Luongo, and the numbers presented above support management's decision. Schneider brings less volatility, more consistency come playoffs, and perhaps most surprisingly, better defense from the team as a whole. If he remains a Canuck, the trickle down effect will likely result in tighter, more defensively sound games, and less of the offensive explosions that we have seen from the Canucks in past years. In fact, since 2009, goals for and number of games played by Schneider has been inversely related, as over this time frame goals for are 6% higher on average with Luongo in net. However, when comparing GF to GA while each goaltender is in net, we find that the Canuck’s goal differential favorably increases by 34% when Schneider is playing.

The difference of just one player will likely cause the 2013 Canucks to look quite different from the 2009 or 2010 high-scoring teams that Vancouver is used to. While fans may have to adapt to a more defensive style of play with less goals and perhaps even less excitement, when we look to the defensive consistency the LA Kings showed throughout their recent run, the city of Vancouver just might have a better chance at a cup."

Read more Canuckonomics at http://canuckonomics.blogspot.ca/
And follow on twitter @Canuckonomics

Edited by coleycanuck, 28 June 2012 - 09:40 AM.
Link removed as per the site rules.

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#2 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 10:14 AM

Frack, just how many bs stats need to be shown to us in order for us to figure out what we already know? Y'know what i mean?


TOML
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#3 komodo1970

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 10:25 AM

This only reinforces my belief that Cory is our goaltender going forward. Make no mistake, Lou is good, but Cory is better. Sorry Lou.
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#4 Spitfire_Spiky

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 10:25 AM

No kidding, the writing is on the wall in Vancouver. Everyone knows its Schneider that will be the starter.
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#5 asian player

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 10:30 AM

the canucks aren't doubting their skills or ability to play. a lot of things kick in, it's about age, their contracts, and commitment to team. Schneider is still young, he won't cost as much as Luongo and he doesn't want to go anywhere
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#6 Tig'ol Bitties

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 10:37 AM

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Frack, just how many bs stats need to be shown to us in order for us to figure out what we already know? Y'know what i mean?


TOML


The ending of every post you make annoys me. Y'know what i mean?

Tiggies
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#7 John.Tallhouse

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 10:41 AM

much more insightfull than this thread..

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#8 cs2016

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 11:03 AM

I think when AV made Schneider the starter for the rest of the LA series, Lu's time in Vancouver was done. CS was the better option for the future and imo Lu accepted this in his last interview.
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#9 cs2016

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 11:04 AM

The ending of every post you make annoys me. Y'know what i mean?

Tiggies

But it's TOML's signature thing to do for every post.
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#10 Jägermeister

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 11:05 AM

Yep, Corys value is pretty high. We'll get a good return for him!
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#11 NuxFan09

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 11:21 AM

People that are writing articles like this are just like us; they're bored silly and eager for this goalie situation to work itself out already. Yes, the writer is telling us what we already know but can we blame him? He's just killing time.
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#12 HockeyHobo73

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 12:09 PM

If you want to use a statistical analysis like that, it doesn't really work... The sample size is way too small for it to have significant meaning... But it does still count for something I guess
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#13 shadowgoon

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 12:13 PM

The sample size for Cory Schneider is too limited to make a direct comparison. What we do know is that Cory is an exceptional young athlete who has for the most part displayed an incredible calmness when compared to Roberto's style which is chaotic on a typical night, and medicated bi-polar on the best of nights.

What we also know, is that Cory will likely come with a lower cap hit, and that he is significantly younger than Luongo. This is just a prime example of a budding young goaltender that has come to fruition and has made an established goaltender expendable. It doesn't mean that we're forced to trade one or the other, but in the interest of a drama and distraction free season it makes sense to only keep one; and you always want to make the best business decision possible.

This unfortunately means trading Luongo, this is a business decision pure and simple. Luongo will make his millions no matter where he plays, benefit of guaranteed contracts; what he can do is for the most part decide where he will be making those millions. This is by default will make the return we get for Luongo less and there are fewer possible suitors to take Luongo.

Do not be surprised if all we get is a mid to late 20's roster player and a bad contract in return for Luongo. That being said, I would very much accept a deal of Luongo + 2nd for Campbell + Versteeg + 3rd. Package up Edler and send him to Anaheim in a deal for Bobby Ryan.
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#14 protectyaneck

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 12:18 PM

I personally like how much better Schneider handles the media compared to Luongo. I think that speaks for itself.
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#15 bluesman60

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 12:28 PM

I look at the numbers a bit differently......numbers are telling only to a point.
Both goalies are #1 goalies but really the difference between them is which style you feel most comfortable with. For me, I like the standup style of Schneiders and the fact that he is younger. They both have done an admirable job in net.
Stats mean very little becasue it really is how the whole team played in a particular game. There are also other factors that come into play eg the return of Daniel Sedin to the lineup. If you are now spending more time in the offensive zone, it obviously helps the goalie immensely.
At this point going with the capable younger goalie is the smart move but really there is no point of putting down Luo to justify the point.....they are both star goalies.
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#16 CanuckFan1981

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 12:52 PM

"The greatest difference going into the Vancouver Canuck's 2012/13 season will be in net, as this organization has been lucky enough to have two franchise goaltenders on the roster for too long now, and due to both Cory Schneider's looming RFA status and the way things ended for Roberto Luongo last season, it has become clear that only one goalie will remain a Canuck come September.  There has been much talk of Luongo being traded over the summer, and many opinions on the matter, but there has been a lack of analysis on each player's numbers, how they differ, and what they mean for the Canuck's future.

Let's start with the basics- in the last two seasons (since Schneider has shared duties with Luongo), #1 and #35's GAA have been 2.26 and 1.86 respectively.  When we enter the playoffs, Luongo's GAA rises 11% to 2.52, while Schneider's falls 26% to 1.38. This is where we begin to see the differences between the two goaltender's games, and the gap only widens from here. The standard deviation (degree to which each game is near the goalie's average GAA) between the two goaltenders is quite comparable throughout an entire season, but when we isolate the playoffs, Schneider's SDfallsby 34%, from 1.39 to 0.91, meaning be becomes more consistent, and Luongo's playoff standard deviationincreasesby 31%, from1.41 to 1.85, showing less consistency. We have seen this empirically throughout the years, but the numbers make our convictions abundantly clear..."

The rest here: http://canuckonomics.blogspot.ca/



Note: there are no advertisements and I make no profit from these articles. I just do it for fun, and to start a conversation. Please discuss/give feedback.


So how many games has Schnied's played in the payoffs? Is a total of 4 games enough to compare with Luongo's 40 games played? Obviously Schnieds doesn't have a comparable amount of starts to make a reasonable comparison on playoff results. He could tank his next 2 playoff games (let in 6-8 goals each) and then your stats are out to lunch. Basically the only thing we can say is that Schnieder has so far shown that he is a legitimate #1 goalie and the team is faced with having 2 top end goalies and not enough games for them both to play. Other than the Luongo haters booing him off the ice, I would be happy with either goalie going forward. However, the haters have been louder than the supporters and if I was Luu, I wouldn't want to play here anymore (either?). Now the only logical solution is to trade Luu instead of having the option to trade either goalie, which we might still have if we could cheer more than we boo our own players.
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#17 canuck_face54

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 12:53 PM

4 playoff games in his whole career, and he's consistent? There is no way to determine consistency after only 4 games. Sheesh. Keeping CS is just as much of a gamble for the team as keeping Lou is. Especially since the return would be WAY better for Shneids.
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#18 Eh! Team

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 12:53 PM

This deal will make or break MG. If he trades Luongo, pulls a Keenen and trades his franchise goalie for a bag of pucks and Schnieder falls short. MG won't be the GM anymore. He has to get a significant player no matter what or else he will be forced to trade Schnieder for something bigger n better.

I would choose Schnieder but we have Lack and Cannata coming up. Both could become potential starters. Luongo is still one of the best goalies in the league so it not as if we are going to get worse by keeping Luongo.

Just because Schnieder is the "new" goalie doesn't mean he's the right goalie to go with right now. I wouldn't be upset if Schnieder was traded because the return would be huge. With the return on Schneider with Luongo in net, you think our chances would be better.
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#19 cmpunk

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 02:14 PM

I want Lu to stay! But if he goes I'd prefer him go to FLA so I can cheer for him and the Panthers and they wouldn't have to play the Canucks more than once.

But honestly if he goes there, I would not be shocked to see them make a run at the cup and possibly win it before the Canucks. Just because of where they play and the team they have. They were 1 goal away from knocking of the Devils and their only weakness was goaltending.
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#20 Ray_Cathode

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 02:22 PM

"The greatest difference going into the Vancouver Canuck's 2012/13 season will be in net, as this organization has been lucky enough to have two franchise goaltenders on the roster for too long now, and due to both Cory Schneider's looming RFA status and the way things ended for Roberto Luongo last season, it has become clear that only one goalie will remain a Canuck come September. There has been much talk of Luongo being traded over the summer, and many opinions on the matter, but there has been a lack of analysis on each player's numbers, how they differ, and what they mean for the Canuck's future.

Let's start with the basics- in the last two seasons (since Schneider has shared duties with Luongo), #1 and #35's GAA have been 2.26 and 1.86 respectively. When we enter the playoffs, Luongo's GAA rises 11% to 2.52, while Schneider's falls 26% to 1.38. This is where we begin to see the differences between the two goaltender's games, and the gap only widens from here. The standard deviation (degree to which each game is near the goalie's average GAA) between the two goaltenders is quite comparable throughout an entire season, but when we isolate the playoffs, Schneider's SDfallsby 34%, from 1.39 to 0.91, meaning be becomes more consistent, and Luongo's playoff standard deviationincreasesby 31%, from1.41 to 1.85, showing less consistency. We have seen this empirically throughout the years, but the numbers make our convictions abundantly clear."


According to: http://www.nhl.com/i...iewName=summary

Luo's playoff GAA for the past playoff was 3.59 - worst amongst starting playoff goalies - Schneider's was the playoff best at 1.31. Of course, according to Luo fans they were playing in front of different teams - the one that hated Luo and the one that loved Cory.
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#21 nucklehead53

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 02:54 PM

I want Lu to stay! But if he goes I'd prefer him go to FLA so I can cheer for him and the Panthers and they wouldn't have to play the Canucks more than once.

But honestly if he goes there, I would not be shocked to see them make a run at the cup and possibly win it before the Canucks. Just because of where they play and the team they have. They were 1 goal away from knocking of the Devils and their only weakness was goaltending.


I'd love to see him in FLA (if not Vancouver) but don't they have Markham coming up?

Anyways, to this article: We basically have proof of something that has been proven and everyone knows it.
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#22 cmpunk

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 03:18 PM

I'd love to see him in FLA (if not Vancouver) but don't they have Markham coming up?

Anyways, to this article: We basically have proof of something that has been proven and everyone knows it.


Yeah Markstrom, he has played a few games already, but don't think he is ready yet. Im sure they would love to have LU and have Markstrom back up Lu. That is a MUCH better tandom then Theodore and Clemmensen. Markstrom is still very young at age 22 and I think he would develop nicely backing up Luongo just like Schnieder has.

Markstrom is a big goalie at 6 ft 6 and could very well become their franchise elite goalie, but give a few more years and he will be an NHL goalie. If Lu could give them a solid 3-4 years and mentor Markstrom after, they will be golden.

Going to be hard to see Lu go if he does, but going to FLA would be easier because I can cheer for them and the Canucks. I was pulling hard for the Panthers this playoff.

Edited by cmpunk, 27 June 2012 - 03:19 PM.

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#23 mabbott

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 03:31 PM

the last two goalies to win the cup n conn smythe ( thomas and quick) were yankees, so lets keep this trend going. how pissed would luo be if that happened eh?
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#24 dj77

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 04:41 PM

the current numbers mean squat!! CS has never played more than 30 games in the NHL, so how does that qualify him to be a starting goalie?? what's gonna happen when AV gives CS 65+ games and he cant handle it? who's gonna step up then? lack? climie? who havent ever played any games in the nhl? the canucks should keep both goalies and have them split the games, it gives CS more experience, and it takes some preassure off of lou. after 2 seasons of splitting the games, then CS can start playing more and lou play less until he retires. the bottom half of lou's mega contract has him earning less each year, which could be tacked on to CS's contract and both goalies could stay as canucks for many years to come. this team can, and will be a dynasty team, and they will win multiple stanley cups if they can keep LOU and schneider. the big picture that no-one seems to see is that this team NEEDS SCORING!!! so shut er down with the goalie topics and start worrying about who is gonna step up and put some pucks in the net. that is what killed us against boston, that is what killed us against L.A. and that is what will kill us next season too if MG doesnt do something asap!!
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#25 bluesman60

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 05:41 PM

There is a rumour of a contract amnesty for the teams when the CBA is negotiated. What would happen if MG chose Luongo's contract to use the amnesty feature on. He could then sign Luo to a shorter contract and then have a much broader market to trade Luo to. He could also get a better return because no one could use the contract a deterring factor in a trade.
Seems to me that that would work in Luo's favor, the Vancouver Canucks favor as well as the new team that Luo goes to.
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#26 Tortorella's Rant

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 05:44 PM

4 playoff games in his whole career, and he's consistent? There is no way to determine consistency after only 4 games. Sheesh. Keeping CS is just as much of a gamble for the team as keeping Lou is. Especially since the return would be WAY better for Shneids.


I'm just waiting for the day he puts together a rough stretch and this fan base eats him alive for it; single handedly doesn't win the Cup and is entirely to blame.
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#27 surtur

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 06:00 PM

i hope they both stay......
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#28 thehamburglar

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 06:40 PM

Yep, Corys value is pretty high. We'll get a good return for him!


Exactly my thoughts. They did it with Hodgson, although many problems were there too.

And too say consistency is there after 4 playoff games? Settle down.

Edited by thehamburglar, 27 June 2012 - 06:41 PM.

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#29 Underachieving Hero of CDC

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 06:49 PM

the current numbers mean squat!! CS has never played more than 30 games in the NHL, so how does that qualify him to be a starting goalie?? what's gonna happen when AV gives CS 65+ games and he cant handle it? who's gonna step up then? lack? climie? who havent ever played any games in the nhl? the canucks should keep both goalies and have them split the games, it gives CS more experience, and it takes some preassure off of lou. after 2 seasons of splitting the games, then CS can start playing more and lou play less until he retires. the bottom half of lou's mega contract has him earning less each year, which could be tacked on to CS's contract and both goalies could stay as canucks for many years to come. this team can, and will be a dynasty team, and they will win multiple stanley cups if they can keep LOU and schneider. the big picture that no-one seems to see is that this team NEEDS SCORING!!! so shut er down with the goalie topics and start worrying about who is gonna step up and put some pucks in the net. that is what killed us against boston, that is what killed us against L.A. and that is what will kill us next season too if MG doesnt do something asap!!

Lu's cap hit stays the same throughout the entire length of the contract. We would be paying Luongo $5.3 mil and Schneider $2.5-$3.5 mil which would total $7.8-8.8 mil on team goaltending. Doesn't make sense when we can just make the better goalie our #1 guy and ship Luongo out of town. Save money, improve in net, get younger.
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#30 kj29

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 08:23 PM

i want luongo


whos with me? :towel: :towel: :towel: :towel: :towel: :towel: :towel: :towel: :towel: :towel:

Edited by lappy40, 27 June 2012 - 08:23 PM.

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