When do you think the Vancouver housing bubble will explode and come crashing down ?

[jejejester]

I don't think these bidding wars will.last forever. I would like to see a tax on foreign buyers, also they could introduce another tax on people who own multiple homes. 

 

I live in langley and have been inside some of these new condos and townhouses that are being built and so many of them are just crap. They have been built as cheap and fast as possible. Lots of corners have been cut. I think in 5-10 years a lot of people are going to be screwed.

 

Right now I can rent for a lot cheaper than owning so I'm just dumping what extra I would be paying in a mortgage into investments. 

[Hugor Hill]

At some point the price acceleration will ease and eventually stop to a more normal, 2% to 4% per year, when it catches up to other world class cities.

 

My opinion.

 

 

[MaxVerstappen33]

1 hour ago, Hugor Hill said:

At some point the price acceleration will ease and eventually stop to a more normal, 2% to 4% per year, when it catches up to other world class cities.

 

My opinion.

 

 

Catch down to other cities you meant right ?

 

 

and the contrast

 

[CanadianLoonie]

6 hours ago, LolClarkson said:

A crash will be the best outcome. The boom is the problem, the crash is the solution. A crash will clean out all of the speculative money and malinvestment that has piled up which will make housing in Vancouver what it is supposed to be again. 

Yup, you're an Austrian.

 

6 hours ago, LolClarkson said:

Not a place to to deploy hot money, not a place to chase momentum, not a place to launder ill gotten gains, not a place to park money.  None of that sh*&

We'll have to get rid of the monopoly that governments and central banks have over currency creation before you'll realize that goal.

[Hugor Hill]

1 hour ago, LolClarkson said:

Catch down to other cities you meant right ?

 

 

and the contrast

 

For your first graph,

 

1) the majority of those cities are not world class by a long shot. 

2) where is Vancouver?

3) and post 2010?

 

For your second graph,

 

1) they had a national housing crash, we didn't

2) not useful to compare national averages when we are talking about just one city of Vancouver

 

 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Hugor Hill said:

For your first graph,

 

1) the majority of those cities are not world class by a long shot. 

2) where is Vancouver?

3) and post 2010?

 

For your second graph,

 

1) they had a national housing crash, we didn't

2) not useful to compare national averages when we are talking about just one city of Vancouver

 

 

The Calgary market is in the toilet.  The Vancouver market will crash.  All markets eventually do.  It's not a matter of if, it's when?  Will it be 1 year, 10 years, 100 years?  It will crash.  How can this even be argued?

[Hugor Hill]

9 minutes ago, Alflives said:

The Calgary market is in the toilet.  The Vancouver market will crash.  All markets eventually do.  It's not a matter of if, it's when?  Will it be 1 year, 10 years, 100 years?  It will crash.  How can this even be argued?

Calgary crashed because of the oil bust.

 

When was the last time Vancouver's crashed? 

 

Look at this graph of Manhattan's housing stats:

 

 

Even in 2008, median sales price really never crashed.

 

It may happen to Vancouver eventually, but it would require an uniquely serious global economic downturn for those Asian investors to pull out suddenly and collectively. It might not happen any time soon.

 

China's stock market crashed last summer, and what happened to Vancouver's housing market? Kept going up. In fact, the Shanghai crash probably helped the Vancouver housing market go up even more as investors pulled their monies out of there and put them in here.

 

Major economic shifts happen for a reason.

 

 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Hugor Hill said:

Calgary crashed because of the oil bust.

 

When was the last time Vancouver's crashed? 

 

Look at this graph of Manhattan's housing stats:

 

 

Even in 2008, median sales price really never crashed.

 

It may happen to Vancouver eventually, but it would require an uniquely serious global economic downturn for those Asian investors to pull out suddenly and collectively. It might not happen any time soon.

 

China's stock market crashed last summer, and what happened to Vancouver's housing market? Kept going up. In fact, the Shanghai crash probably helped the Vancouver housing market go up even more as investors pulled their monies out of there and put them in here.

 

Major economic shifts happen for a reason.

 

 

Perhaps not in our life times, or our children's.  But it will crash.  It must.  We cannot predict future events, that you say are needed for a crash.  But one catastrophic event will come.  

[Hugor Hill]

Just now, Alflives said:

Perhaps not in our life times, or our children's.  But it will crash.  It must.  We cannot predict future events, that you say are needed for a crash.  But one catastrophic event will come.  

It is more likely to level off - stop going up, like the Manhattan graph after 2008, as international investors find other places less expensive to invest their monies in.

 

If something happens so drastic that crashes Vancouver's housing market, chances are it would be so drastic that we are all totally screwed. 

[Electro Rock]

6 minutes ago, Hugor Hill said:

Calgary crashed because of the oil bust.

 

When was the last time Vancouver's crashed? 

 

If you acks me, I'd say the normal economic underpinnings dropped out from under it by maybe the late '80s, and its been an economic zombie animated with the evil powers of "black money" ever since...

[Hugor Hill]

2 minutes ago, Electro Rock said:

If you acks me, I'd say the normal economic underpinnings dropped out from under it by maybe the late '80s, and its been an economic zombie animated with the evil powers of "black money" ever since...

With the same long lens, the same can be said of most of North America.

 

We rely on natural resources booms, Wall Street ripping off the rest of the world, and foreign investments way too much.

[Alflives]

12 minutes ago, Hugor Hill said:

It is more likely to level off - stop going up, like the Manhattan graph after 2008, as international investors find other places less expensive to invest their monies in.

 

If something happens so drastic that crashes Vancouver's housing market, chances are it would be so drastic that we are all totally screwed. 

That's my point.  You said some outside force needs to cause the crash.  It will come: we just don't know, what, when, and how impactful it will be.  When it does happen (yes) those living here will be seriously impacted.  For this market to crash, will take a HUGE event.  

[DefCon1]

2 hours ago, LolClarkson said:

Catch down to other cities you meant right ?

 

 

and the contrast

 

Didn't know all the world class cities are only in US. What about Hong Kong, London, Sydney, Dubai etc. You are just comparing the US housing market which recently had a recession with the current Vancouver housing market and that is comparing Apples to Oranges. Vancouver housing market is much different than those cities especially due to the high density population and influx of foreign investors that are bringing the housing prices up. 

[DefCon1]

38 minutes ago, Alflives said:

The Calgary market is in the toilet.  The Vancouver market will crash.  All markets eventually do.  It's not a matter of if, it's when?  Will it be 1 year, 10 years, 100 years?  It will crash.  How can this even be argued?

When you put it that way, obviously it will crash and it could be due to global recession or some other major factor. But I pretty much predict the when will be a long time away from now. The only way it will crash is if foreign investors stop buying and the market becomes saturated with more sellers than buyers. 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, DefCon1 said:

When you put it that way, obviously it will crash and it could be due to global recession or some other major factor. But I pretty much predict the when will be a long time away from now. The only way it will crash is if foreign investors stop buying and the market becomes saturated with more sellers than buyers. 

I don't think we can predict the when.  For the Vancouver bubble to burst will take some catastrophic event.  (The city is too well insulated for minor economic fluctuations.)  The type of event needed is of the kind no one can predict.  Hence, the bubble will burst, but no one can predict when.  

[taxi]

49 minutes ago, Hugor Hill said:

Calgary crashed because of the oil bust.

 

When was the last time Vancouver's crashed? 

 

Look at this graph of Manhattan's housing stats:

 

 

Even in 2008, median sales price really never crashed.

 

It may happen to Vancouver eventually, but it would require an uniquely serious global economic downturn for those Asian investors to pull out suddenly and collectively. It might not happen any time soon.

 

China's stock market crashed last summer, and what happened to Vancouver's housing market? Kept going up. In fact, the Shanghai crash probably helped the Vancouver housing market go up even more as investors pulled their monies out of there and put them in here.

 

Major economic shifts happen for a reason.

 

 

According to that graph it peaked in 2008 at around 1,000,000 and then crashed several by as much as 25%. I also don't know why you're using Manhattan as a benchmark. It's well known that Manhattan and London are two of the most out of control real estate markets in the world and everyone is expecting a crash in those markets. The comparable for Vancouver would be somewhere like San Francisco or Seattle. 

 

Manhattan is an especially troubling scene. They are experiencing the same boom in prices we are, but now sales are slowing and projects are going unsold. That's typically the first warning sign of a crash. It doesn't happen instantly, as people try to wait it out and leave their investments on the market for a while before accepting it's time to pull out whatever cash you can.

 

Basically, my point is choosing the second most inflated market and using that as a comparable for why ours cannot crash is pretty illogical.

[MaxVerstappen33]

1 hour ago, Hugor Hill said:

For your first graph,

 

1) the majority of those cities are not world class by a long shot. 

2) where is Vancouver?

3) and post 2010?

 

For your second graph,

 

1) they had a national housing crash, we didn't

2) not useful to compare national averages when we are talking about just one city of Vancouver

 

 

1)New York and San Fransisco are on there. New York is more world class than Vancouver

2)Vancouver's chart is the most parabolic of all.

3) Post 2010 things have gone up a bit but nothing close to new highs

 

1) Yeah they had a national housing boom and crash. Just like the rest of the world except for Canada and Australia. So far we've just had the boom.

2) The chart for just Vancouver would illustrate my point a lot more than just the average.

 

[MaxVerstappen33]

1 hour ago, Hugor Hill said:

Calgary crashed because of the oil bust.

 

When was the last time Vancouver's crashed? 

 

Look at this graph of Manhattan's housing stats:

 

 

Even in 2008, median sales price really never crashed.

 

It may happen to Vancouver eventually, but it would require an uniquely serious global economic downturn for those Asian investors to pull out suddenly and collectively. It might not happen any time soon.

 

China's stock market crashed last summer, and what happened to Vancouver's housing market? Kept going up. In fact, the Shanghai crash probably helped the Vancouver housing market go up even more as investors pulled their monies out of there and put them in here.

 

Major economic shifts happen for a reason.

 

 

Thats not a chart for regular houses.

 

 

And it was just a propaganda hit piece by the US financial media regarding the "crash" of Chinese stocks. They just loosened some regulations and a lot of accounts opened up which gunned the prices a bit.  Stocks were still green for the year after the "crash". But the end of the chart does look a lot like Van house prices...

 

 

 

[MaxVerstappen33]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

That's my point.  You said some outside force needs to cause the crash.  It will come: we just don't know, what, when, and how impactful it will be.  When it does happen (yes) those living here will be seriously impacted.  For this market to crash, will take a HUGE event.  

Historically bubbles blow up just on their own weight. You are over emphasizing things. Japan inc. just toppled on its own weight. So did the US housing bust.

 

I speculate and study economics and finance on the side. You will be surprised how little it takes to kick it over.

[DefCon1]

40 minutes ago, LolClarkson said:

Historically bubbles blow up just on their own weight. You are over emphasizing things. Japan inc. just toppled on its own weight. So did the US housing bust.

 

I speculate and study economics and finance on the side. You will be surprised how little it takes to kick it over.

I want to know if the cities in those countries had the same influx of new immigrants and foreign buyers investing or was it just local buyers. Vancouver is a city that everyone wants to move in, even if you are in some other Canadian province. The Canadians from other provinces like to live in Vancouver due to the mild weather, its scenery and laid back style. The foreign buyers from China want to live or invest in Vancouver because they consider it as a safe investment and its a place where they can eventually go to retire or for their future kids etc. I just don't see how the type of interest that Vancouver is picking up could be compared to some US cities or an Asian country. Canada is seen much differently from US and Japan from a foreigner's point of view and more people would obviously like to live in Canada than those other countries whether its due to our politics or the environments and benefits. Until all those interests are halted due to some reason, I doubt the influx of foreign money will be halted. Even if the locals can't afford the houses being sold, there will always be foreign buyers ready to gobble up the properties.