When do you think the Vancouver housing bubble will explode and come crashing down ?

Electro Rock · June 4, 2016

Look at the prices below and then compare them to Vancouver prices, you can rent a motherhumpin' Shaughnessy mansion for less than some of those apartments go for!

http://www.apartmentfinder.com/California/San-Francisco-Apartments?gclid=Cj0KEQjw1cS6BRDvhtKL89em1oIBEiQAtZO5xw-0E2i62VHIppSYnnLcfbJIYx_56A1T_3rBhvJe-Y8aAqFn8P8HAQ&dclid=COTxlMiWjc0CFUswaQodQXQHHQ

Even cheaper areas like Oakland are expensive...

http://www.apartmentfinder.com/California/Oakland-Apartments

Nuxfanabroad · June 4, 2016

Late to this party..saw the title, & was gonna jokingly propose Oct 29th, 2029. After scrolling a page or two, seeing there's ample reference to that time.

We(humanity in general) so often look back when thinking financially, to discern patterns, thereby assisting to project forward. Interestingly, I'd say things are too different/unique in this era. I'm skeptical that patterns of the past will have relevance anymore, in going forward. Apply that to land values, or many socio-economic realms.

World seems like one big 'Black Swan' to me now.

MaxVerstappen33 · June 4, 2016

20 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Late to this party..saw the title, & was gonna jokingly propose Oct 29th, 2029. After scrolling a page or two, seeing there's ample reference to that time.

We(humanity in general) so often look back when thinking financially, to discern patterns, thereby assisting to project forward. Interestingly, I'd say things are too different/unique in this era. I'm skeptical that patterns of the past will have relevance anymore, in going forward. Apply that to land values, or many socio-economic realms.

World seems like one big 'Black Swan' to me now.

So.... You don't think prices will come down for a couple decades. Got it.

MaxVerstappen33 · June 4, 2016

26 minutes ago, Electro Rock said:

Look at the prices below and then compare them to Vancouver prices, you can rent a motherhumpin' Shaughnessy mansion for less than some of those apartments go for!

http://www.apartmentfinder.com/California/San-Francisco-Apartments?gclid=Cj0KEQjw1cS6BRDvhtKL89em1oIBEiQAtZO5xw-0E2i62VHIppSYnnLcfbJIYx_56A1T_3rBhvJe-Y8aAqFn8P8HAQ&dclid=COTxlMiWjc0CFUswaQodQXQHHQ

Even cheaper areas like Oakland are expensive...

http://www.apartmentfinder.com/California/Oakland-Apartments

This guy is delusional apparently.

I can find a house in Pakistan that costs more that a house in Vancouver. That does not mean that the

general price level in Pakistan is higher than the general price level in Vancouver.

Electro Rock · June 4, 2016

14 minutes ago, LolClarkson said:

This guy is delusional apparently.

I can find a house in Pakistan that costs more that a house in Vancouver. That does not mean that the

general price level in Pakistan is higher than the general price level in Vancouver.

I think its pretty clear from those links that the SF and the rest of the Bay Area's general price levels are much higher than in Vancouver, even leaving the differences in the dollar aside.

MaxVerstappen33 · June 4, 2016

2 hours ago, Electro Rock said:

I think its pretty clear from those links that the SF and the rest of the Bay Area's general price levels are much higher than in Vancouver, even leaving the differences in the dollar aside.

You are entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts. The general price level is higher in Vancouver than it is in San Francisco. If you try and contest this fact again, I will have to report it as blatant trolling.

January 25, 2016

-DLC- · June 5, 2016

It's of note that the same forces are driving up prices in Australia and New Zealand and are now under substantial review from what I understand.

Harvey Spector · June 6, 2016

On June 3, 2016 at 9:54 PM, LolClarkson said:

You are entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts. The general price level is higher in Vancouver than it is in San Francisco. If you try and contest this fact again, I will have to report it as blatant trolling.

January 25, 2016

That graph doesn't show median price levels it shows affordability which is in direct correlation to incomes.

The median sales price in San Francisco is $1.179 million. It actually has been dropping as it was up to $1.3 million last December. So they seem to be in a market correction:

San Francisco Market Overview

Data through Apr 30, 2016

$1,135,900 ZHVI
1.3% 1-yr forecast (Apr 30, 2017)
No data Median listing price
$1,179,175 Median sale price

The median sales price in Vancouver is $889,100 according to the latest MLS stats for June:

"The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $889,100. This represents a 29.7 per cent increase compared to May 2015."

Alflives · June 6, 2016

1 minute ago, Harvey Spector said:

That graph doesn't show median price levels it shows affordability which is in direct correlation to incomes.

The median sales price in San Francisco is $1.179 million. It actually has been dropping as it was up to $1.3 million last December. So they seem to be in a market correction:

San Francisco Market Overview

Data through Apr 30, 2016

$1,135,900 ZHVI

1.3% 1-yr forecast (Apr 30, 2017)

No data Median listing price

$1,179,175 Median sale price

The median sales price in Vancouver is $889,000 according to the latest MLS stats for June:

"The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $889,100. This represents a 29.7 per cent increase compared to May 2015."

I thought we dropped from 3 to 5, because Betman rigged the machine? It's all too confusing. Where's my blister pack?

Harvey Spector · June 6, 2016

8 hours ago, debluvscanucks said:

It's of note that the same forces are driving up prices in Australia and New Zealand and are now under substantial review from what I understand.

The biggest problem with our real estate market isn't the foreign buyers it is the inventory levels. It's all based on supply and demand. The following stat from the REBGV tells it all, even moreso than the price levels:

"The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 7,726, a 37.3 per cent decline compared to May 2015 (12,336) and a 2.3 per cent increase compared to April 2016 (7,550)."

So basically our inventory levels are down almost 40% from last year alone. And I remember inventory levels being much higher than last year as well a few years back. Bob Rennie, the condo king and a guy I used to work with for years, predicted all of this years ago. He knew this was coming because the City was putting into place tighter regulations for developers to get building permits to build high rises. It actually takes close to 4 years right now for a developer to get a permit, from buying the land to the re-zoning application to getting the architectural plans approved. It's crazy. They need to cut that timing in half. So because of this I don't see any change in the market for at least 2 years or more. It will take that long for inventory levels to get back to normal levels. Also once people start to cash out then more single family homes will be put on the market as well. Lots of baby boomers will be retiring soon and downsizing, so I can see more homes being put up on the market in the next couple years. As well there are lots of new condo developments up for rezoning right now so once these pre-sales get put on the market, I can see condo prices stabilizing at some point.

But of course foreign money will still play a key role in the price levels moving forward. If the dollar continues to stay low along with oil prices, then cheap foreign money will still be coming into the market. China holds over 25% of all US dollars so they are buying Vancouver homes at 25% off the market value. Right now it's like a perfect storm for rising price levels. Historically low inventory levels to go along with a low dollar, low interest rates, cheap oil and cheap foreign money all combining into one formidable opponent for our real estate market. It all came together at once which has caused the craziest real estate market in Vancouver history. Once these market forces start to change, then our real estate market will change accordingly.

MaxVerstappen33 · June 7, 2016

On 2016-06-05 at 7:37 PM, Harvey Spector said:

That graph doesn't show median price levels it shows affordability which is in direct correlation to incomes.

The median sales price in San Francisco is $1.179 million. It actually has been dropping as it was up to $1.3 million last December. So they seem to be in a market correction:

San Francisco Market Overview

Data through Apr 30, 2016

$1,135,900 ZHVI

1.3% 1-yr forecast (Apr 30, 2017)

No data Median listing price

$1,179,175 Median sale price

The median sales price in Vancouver is $889,100 according to the latest MLS stats for June:

"The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $889,100. This represents a 29.7 per cent increase compared to May 2015."

You are a casual observer paging through some MLS listings and what not. Get with the program. You aren't comparing the right data or even apples to apples. UBS is. Or is your casual observing better than UBS ?

here we go again. Vancouver beating out SF and New York and everyone in North America. But hey where is my latest junk mail real estate flyer...

MaxVerstappen33 · June 7, 2016

On 2016-06-05 at 8:39 PM, Harvey Spector said:

r at once which has caused the craziest real estate market in Vancouver history. Once these market forces start to change, then our real estate market will change accordingly.

The same old supply/demand story is given as a reason in all bubbles. The Van housing market is no exception . The bubble will collapse on itself in the same way that all bubbles collapse on themselves.

The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in ... Canada? - The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/...biggest-housing-bubble...world-is.../272499/

Jan 25, 2013 - How real is Canada's housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country's.

Canada has the Most Overvalued Housing Market in World [Chart ...

www.visualcapitalist.com/canada-has-the-most-overvalued-housing-market-in-world-...

May 1, 2015 - Canada has the Most Overvalued Housing Market in World [Chart] ... The Canadian housing bubble has been no exception to this, and the war of words is starting to heat up. .... The Largest Global Risks to Business in 2016. 6 ...

Harvey Spector · June 7, 2016

1 hour ago, LolClarkson said:

You are a casual observer paging through some MLS listings and what not. Get with the program. You aren't comparing the right data or even apples to apples. UBS is. Or is your casual observing better than UBS ?

here we go again. Vancouver beating out SF and New York and everyone in North America. But hey where is my latest junk mail real estate flyer...

I've been in the real estate industry over 20 years my friend. I'm not a casual observer reading MLS charts in the papers. I actually do it for a living unlike you. So maybe an amateur real estate practitioner like yourself who gets data from the Internet to make yourself look like an expert should get with the program. The fact that you call others out as trolls only makes you look more amateurish.

So where does it say in your latest chart you got off the Internet that the median real estate prices in Vancouver are higher than in San Francisco? That chart simply talks about bubbles. If you'd like, as a professional in the industry, I can provide you with actual MLS data that only realtors are privy too if you'd like more data to stir your brain. Maybe Realtor Rod can help you out as well as you seem to not understand basic real estate terminology like median price levels, HPI benchmark prices and sales to active listing ratios.

Oh and if you'd like I can send you my latest junk mail real estate flyer. Just give me your address and I'll personally address it to you...

The Vancouver Connection · June 7, 2016

12 hours ago, Harvey Spector said:

I've been in the real estate industry over 20 years my friend. I'm not a casual observer reading MLS charts in the papers. I actually do it for a living unlike you. So maybe an amateur real estate practitioner like yourself who gets data from the Internet to make yourself look like an expert should get with the program. The fact that you call others out as trolls only makes you look more amateurish.

So where does it say in your latest chart you got off the Internet that the median real estate prices in Vancouver are higher than in San Francisco? That chart simply talks about bubbles. If you'd like, as a professional in the industry, I can provide you with actual MLS data that only realtors are privy too if you'd like more data to stir your brain. Maybe Realtor Rod can help you out as well as you seem to not understand basic real estate terminology like median price levels, HPI benchmark prices and sales to active listing ratios.

Oh and if you'd like I can send you my latest junk mail real estate flyer. Just give me your address and I'll personally address it to you...

LOLClarkson is just a troll who has no idea what he's talking about, all of his posts are charts off the internet that we've all seen before.

Seems like a guy who's late to the party and goes to sleep thinking of a bubble so he can finally invest the $10k in his bank account.

Harvey Spector · June 7, 2016

1 hour ago, The Vancouver Connection said:

LOLClarkson is just a troll who has no idea what he's talking about, all of his posts are charts off the internet that we've all seen before.

Seems like a guy who's late to the party and goes to sleep thinking of a bubble so he can finally invest the $10k in his bank account.

Haha yeah that's what I thought. When I said median real estate prices were higher in San Fran than Vancouver and posted accurate MLS data and then he comes back with a counter argument showing a bubble graph from UBS I kinda knew he had no clue what he was talking about. But he probably didn't realize he was arguing with a 20 year real estate professional who would call him out on his bs Internet charts.

If he's waiting for a bubble to happen then he'll be waiting for awhile as inventory levels won't be increasing for a least two years. In the meantime I can certainly help him with his $10k investment he has saved up for his future real estate purchase. I know of a parking stall that's on the market right now for sale in Burnaby. For $10k he can have it. As long as he owns a car to park there and be able to sleep in it he should be good to go. He can drive to McDonalds for his meals and use their public washrooms for clean up.

nuckin_futz · June 7, 2016

1 hour ago, Harvey Spector said:

Haha yeah that's what I thought. When I said median real estate prices were higher in San Fran than Vancouver and posted accurate MLS data and then he comes back with a counter argument showing a bubble graph from UBS I kinda knew he had no clue what he was talking about. But he probably didn't realize he was arguing with a 20 year real estate professional who would call him out on his bs Internet charts.

If he's waiting for a bubble to happen then he'll be waiting for awhile as inventory levels won't be increasing for a least two years. In the meantime I can certainly help him with his $10k investment he has saved up for his future real estate purchase. I know of a parking stall that's on the market right now for sale in Burnaby. For $10k he can have it. As long as he owns a car to park there and be able to sleep in it he should be good to go. He can drive to McDonalds for his meals and use their public washrooms for clean up.

I could not agree with you more. I dropped out of this thread on page 2 because the OP has such a militant mindset and cannot be reasoned with. He has a chart for everything. Never mind that a chart without volume is only half the story.

I could get on board with what he's saying if he was reasonable and called for a correction. But he's calling for outright financial armageddon. I can't recall if it was in this thread or another where he was calling for Vancouver housing to revisit mid 1990's levels of $400,000 and for Canadian banks to be nationalized.

No one loves financial chaos more than I do. It's my bread and butter. I'd love to see it, but the conditions necessary for that to happen are not present nor will they be.

The OP is long on charts and short on experience. I don't think he's ever seen (in real time) the bursting of a bubble. The completion of 1 business cycle. A series of rate hikes etc. Though he speaks like he has real world experience I don't think he has much.

In fact he sounds like I did 17-18 years ago. I had the financial world all figured out. I had a myriad of charts to back up my conclusions. I could point to previous scenarios that played out a certain way. I could quote financial experts until the cows came home. Looking back, I didn't have a clue and had many lessons to learn and quite frankly, to be brutally honest I wouldn't want to talk finance with the younger version of myself.

I had to tune the OP out when he posted the following on page 2 ...........

"I forgot to mention that I was one of the only ppl in the world to accurately call the oil bear market which I did on the FOFOA economics forum."

This statement is so grandiose and self serving. If you go on Twitter you'll see a never ending parade of people calling for bull and bear markets in every commodity, every stock, every currency on any given day. Same on trading forums like Elite trader, trade2win etc.

If he did call for a bear market in oil then I'll be the first to congratulate him. But to pretend like he's some financial oracle and one of the only people in the world to call it is nonsense.

Realtor Rod · June 7, 2016

6 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

I could not agree with you more. I dropped out of this thread on page 2 because the OP has such a militant mindset and cannot be reasoned with. He has a chart for everything. Never mind that a chart without volume is only half the story.

I could get on board with what he's saying if he was reasonable and called for a correction. But he's calling for outright financial armageddon. I can't recall if it was in this thread or another where he was calling for Vancouver housing to revisit mid 1990's levels of $400,000 and for Canadian banks to be nationalized.

No one loves financial chaos more than I do. It's my bread and butter. I'd love to see it, but the conditions necessary for that to happen are not present nor will they be.

The OP is long on charts and short on experience. I don't think he's ever seen (in real time) the bursting of a bubble. The completion of 1 business cycle. A series of rate hikes etc. Though he speaks like he has real world experience I don't think he has much.

In fact he sounds like I did 17-18 years ago. I had the financial world all figured out. I had a myriad of charts to back up my conclusions. I could point to previous scenarios that played out a certain way. I could quote financial experts until the cows came home. Looking back, I didn't have a clue and had many lessons to learn and quite frankly, to be brutally honest I wouldn't want to talk finance with the younger version of myself.

I had to tune the OP out when he posted the following on page 2 ...........

"I forgot to mention that I was one of the only ppl in the world to accurately call the oil bear market which I did on the FOFOA economics forum."

This statement is so grandiose and self serving. If you go on Twitter you'll see a never ending parade of people calling for bull and bear markets in every commodity, every stock, every currency on any given day. Same on trading forums like Elite trader, trade2win etc.

If he did call for a bear market in oil then I'll be the first to congratulate him. But to pretend like he's some financial oracle and one of the only people in the world to call it is nonsense.

There are Internet experts all over the place.

mdehaan · June 7, 2016

3 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

I could not agree with you more. I dropped out of this thread on page 2 because the OP has such a militant mindset and cannot be reasoned with. He has a chart for everything. Never mind that a chart without volume is only half the story.

I could get on board with what he's saying if he was reasonable and called for a correction. But he's calling for outright financial armageddon. I can't recall if it was in this thread or another where he was calling for Vancouver housing to revisit mid 1990's levels of $400,000 and for Canadian banks to be nationalized.

No one loves financial chaos more than I do. It's my bread and butter. I'd love to see it, but the conditions necessary for that to happen are not present nor will they be.

The OP is long on charts and short on experience. I don't think he's ever seen (in real time) the bursting of a bubble. The completion of 1 business cycle. A series of rate hikes etc. Though he speaks like he has real world experience I don't think he has much.

In fact he sounds like I did 17-18 years ago. I had the financial world all figured out. I had a myriad of charts to back up my conclusions. I could point to previous scenarios that played out a certain way. I could quote financial experts until the cows came home. Looking back, I didn't have a clue and had many lessons to learn and quite frankly, to be brutally honest I wouldn't want to talk finance with the younger version of myself.

I had to tune the OP out when he posted the following on page 2 ...........

"I forgot to mention that I was one of the only ppl in the world to accurately call the oil bear market which I did on the FOFOA economics forum."

This statement is so grandiose and self serving. If you go on Twitter you'll see a never ending parade of people calling for bull and bear markets in every commodity, every stock, every currency on any given day. Same on trading forums like Elite trader, trade2win etc.

If he did call for a bear market in oil then I'll be the first to congratulate him. But to pretend like he's some financial oracle and one of the only people in the world to call it is nonsense.

Care to elaborate?

Clonedanielsedin · June 8, 2016

Never. The Chinese have alot of money....

taxi · June 8, 2016

Not sure I trust "real estate professionals", whose career it is to convince people to buy real estate on their opinion about an upcoming crash.

The fact of the matter is:

Nobody knows when a crash will occur; and
The current market is dangerous. It's largely in the hands of investors and speculators. Our economy is now dependent on external forces we cannot control.

There are plenty of experts both internationally and domestically stating that are market worries them. To state outright that a crash has no possibility of occurring in the next X years due to lack of inventory, high demand, foreign investment, etc.. is pretty disingenuous.

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When do you think the Vancouver housing bubble will explode and come crashing down ?