When do you think the Vancouver housing bubble will explode and come crashing down ?

[MaxVerstappen33]

50 minutes ago, Realtor Rod said:

Charts are not an explanation. They are diagrams. I have seen your charts, they are not relative. They are up and downs of lines in their simplest forms. In their most complex form they are lines from other places and things that can have contradictory images provide from other places and things eliminate their relevance. 

 

Explain in words what a crash is.

 

Before a crash happens, there has to be a boom.

 

A boom happens when a financial instrument or asset's price departs completely from its historical and fundamental norms. The price is then dictated by the greater fool theory. The inflating price attracts more investors/speculators. They buy from the speculators who were in at lower prices. This guns the price higher which attracts even more investors who buy in and so on. This process continues until the market runs out of buyers.

 

Crash:When the market runs out of buyers, the last one in sells at a loss. Then the process works in reverse (sometimes rather quickly) until some historic or fundamental valuation can be reached.

[KoreanHockeyFan]

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/micheal-noseworth-superintendent-real-estate-1.3769171

 

Quote

 

Micheal Noseworthy named B.C.'s new superintendent of real estate

Premier promised to appoint new superintendent after damning report on real estate industy's failures

CBC News Posted: Sep 19, 2016 11:27 AM PT Last Updated: Sep 19, 2016 12:51 PM PT

B.C. has appointed a new superintendent of real estate to oversee the roll out of new regulations for the industry.

Micheal Noseworthy is a former lawyer from Newfoundland and Labrador who has served in a number of positions for the Yukon government, including as superintendent of real estate.

The move comes after after a special advisory group concluded the industry had failed to effectively regulate itself.  Premier Christy Clark responded by promising to create a new position with expanded powers to oversee it. 

At the time, Clark also announced changes to the real estate council designed to bring the industry under closer government scrutiny and regulation, starting Sept. 30.

"I look forward to drawing upon my experiences as both a regulator and a lawyer with experience in real estate and administrative law to serve the interests of British Columbia's real estate consumers by working swiftly to implement the reforms initiated by the government," Noseworthy said in statement released Monday morning.

As part of the changes, the province has ended self-regulation of the real estate profession by replacing the 13 elected licensees with government-appointed members. The government is still in the process of completing those appointments, said the statement.

The Real Estate Council will continue to be responsible for licensing, licensee and public education, investigation of licensee conduct and licensee discipline.

 

While Clark and her government's inaction has already inflated this bubble, hopefully a reorganized regulatory body can at least get some of this crap under control.

 

 

[TheSecretIsMe]

Read up on this the other day, check this out:






 

[TheSecretIsMe]

And this: 

"The number of foreign buyers purchasing real estate in British Columbia dramatically dropped after the government instituted a 15 per cent foreign buyer tax on Aug. 2, new figures show.

The Ministry of Finance figures show an almost total collapse in the foreign buyer real estate purchases in Metro Vancouver, from 1,974 sales valued at $2.3 billion during June 10-Aug.1, to only 60 sales worth $46.9 million."

 

Link: http://www.theprovince.com/business/real-estate/sales+figures+show+dramatic+drop+after+foreign+buyer/12214595/story.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I don't know about an immediate crash but this is an absolutely gutting decline. 

[MaxVerstappen33]

On 2016-09-20 at 7:06 PM, Realtor Rod said:

On a side note to all your above "look at me and how right I think I am ", three offers written in the last 3 days and all three clients lost because, and wait for it, properties sold above list price. 

 

I guess the 'crash' is in full swing. 

I am not bragging at all. Anyone with a modicum of macro economic knowledge knew what the next move for prices of Van RE was going to be.

[MaxVerstappen33]

This was in China. But its the same movie. Again and again. Obviously these ppl have fallen hard for every sell side real estate myth out there. But hey. They are new to this capitalist thing. They will learn.. Well... some of them will anyway.

 

As People's Daily reports, a surveillance camera - and the resulting viral video - caught the moment new real estate in east Hangzhou opened for sale on September 24. The resulting spree was prompted by the abovementioned new restrictions launched on Monday, which prevents people born outside Hangzhou from buying more than one property.  What is mind-boggling is that despite one of the buying lunatics caught in the stampede literally tearing down the entrance door, all the properties sold out in a matter of hours.

 

 

 

[MaxVerstappen33]

On 09/03/2016 at 9:05 PM, Naslund said:

 

I think contractors who could not find work will adjust and go to other parts of the country where there is work. Would this more affect single homes developers than condo developers? I would be more concerned on employment rate for Canada as a whole than just Vancouver.

 

I think government revenue generated from income tax and excise tax are much healthier than revenue from PTT which has been overstated due to the increase in property value.  I guessed municipality relies more on PTT.

 

Even if there is a crash, I am not sure that is a bad thing despite what were mentioned in previous posts. If this foreign factor gets out of hand and let Vancouver Real Estate continue to be manipulated, could the potential dam

My buddy who is a realtor told me that there is never a bad time to buy. So whether it increases or decrease substantially would not matter as long as you manage your Finance and intend to live there? Of course, external factors are interest rate, employment, family issues which would have an impact in meeting monthly mortgage payments.

 

I never like Christy much but I give her props for doing this even though it may impact her in next election. If she does not do anything and the real estate continues to go out of control, she will lose anyways in next election.

 

It will be certainly interesting

 

 

 

 

 

 

Update coming soon

[MaxVerstappen33]

Unlike some other threads, this isn't sell side Pravda

[apollo]

Anyone have any advice for me? I've been ready since may to buy an entry level 1 bedroom condo DT around 475-575sqft and market really hasn't slowed down... at least not in my range =/ 

Should I wait more? Also, Ideally I have to stick under 475 to not pay the first time home buyers tax 

 

 

[sameer666]

22 hours ago, apollo said:

Anyone have any advice for me? I've been ready since may to buy an entry level 1 bedroom condo DT around 475-575sqft and market really hasn't slowed down... at least not in my range =/ 

Should I wait more? Also, Ideally I have to stick under 475 to not pay the first time home buyers tax 

 

 

I wouldn't expect much change in condo pricing in downtown Vancouver. Just stabilisation and a more even market rather than the heavy seller market it has been.

 

Any slight correction expected will be more on detached housing and suburban prices. There is just too much demand with the Vancouver condo market.

 

[taxi]

1 hour ago, sameer666 said:

I wouldn't expect much change in condo pricing in downtown Vancouver. Just stabilisation and a more even market rather than the heavy seller market it has been.

 

Any slight correction expected will be more on detached housing and suburban prices. There is just too much demand with the Vancouver condo market.

 

 

Even a 10% correction could result in many years less of mortgage payments. What will actually happen? Who knows. I do agree that condo market is less risky than the detached home market. There will always be a premium to live in downtown Vancouver.

 

I have a small condo downtown. The price on it has fluctuated quit a bit, despite all this talk about how level the condo market is. 

[sameer666]

On 02/11/2016 at 10:41 AM, taxi said:

 

Even a 10% correction could result in many years less of mortgage payments. What will actually happen? Who knows. I do agree that condo market is less risky than the detached home market. There will always be a premium to live in downtown Vancouver.

 

I have a small condo downtown. The price on it has fluctuated quit a bit, despite all this talk about how level the condo market is. 

From my experience, I believe a lot of that is to do with the shock the market is feeling from the recent change with both real estate and mortgage policy. It is very common for a bit of a freeze and feeling out period to occur after massive changes. 

 

Moreover we are also moving into what is typically a slower time of the year in terms of the housing market, so the shock is compounded.

 

I expect it to remain slow all the way into late February/March, and then I think we will ease into a nice balanced market for Spring. 

[Alflives]

Bubble has burst.  Housing sales in Vancouver down almost 50% from this month last year.  How much will prices come down?

[Warhippy]

3 hours ago, Alflives said:

Bubble has burst.  Housing sales in Vancouver down almost 50% from this month last year.  How much will prices come down?

No...no it hasn't

 

Just because sales are down does not mean a thing.

 

People may be buying less due to new rules, less supply, less available supply being created

 

But prices have not really fallen much at all.  Less supply does not equate to lower prices.  

 

Until prices actually start correcting themselves we won't see a change.  Because the moment new units come available they will be purchased in hours as is the norm

[Violator]

On 9/27/2016 at 11:15 PM, LolClarkson said:

This was in China. But its the same movie. Again and again. Obviously these ppl have fallen hard for every sell side real estate myth out there. But hey. They are new to this capitalist thing. They will learn.. Well... some of them will anyway.

 

As People's Daily reports, a surveillance camera - and the resulting viral video - caught the moment new real estate in east Hangzhou opened for sale on September 24. The resulting spree was prompted by the abovementioned new restrictions launched on Monday, which prevents people born outside Hangzhou from buying more than one property.  What is mind-boggling is that despite one of the buying lunatics caught in the stampede literally tearing down the entrance door, all the properties sold out in a matter of hours.

 

 

 

Thought they had something like 10billion square feet of empty condo space available.seems kinda odd that they would be stampeding for these ones.

[kingofsurrey]

The last one to leave vancouver, please  slam the door on your way out.......

 

Sad as Pre 1986 Expo,   Vancouver was truly a fantastic place to live. 

[Lancaster]

51 minutes ago, Violator said:

Thought they had something like 10billion square feet of empty condo space available.seems kinda odd that they would be stampeding for these ones.

 

A lot of the vacancy are probably in located in far off places like Inner Mongolia. 

 

Hangzhou is a more vibrant city and central to the main economic regions, thus more demand. 

[SamJamIam]

3 hours ago, Lancaster said:

 

A lot of the vacancy are probably in located in far off places like Inner Mongolia. 

 

Hangzhou is a more vibrant city and central to the main economic regions, thus more demand. 

Ding ding.  And those far-off vacancies cost as much as a condo in Hangzhou because real estate valuation is broken af in China.  So they can say "look how much our economy grew, we just built X units at a 6 figure price".  Then they sit there and no one buys because it's a dumb investment.  Building condos is China's attempt at a New Deal-type policy.