TheGuardian_

THIS IS THE DAY, Canucks get #7

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7 hours ago, CanadianRugby said:

My point is that top 3 picks are vital to winning a cup.  Your argument was that there are really good teams without top picks.  The argument never was if it's easy or not to get those picks.  

What about this year or 2 years ago?  Worked for those teams.  Of course there are no guarantees other than the guarantee of the best chance at the best player.  That's what you're aiming for there.  

Again, you're changing the argument.  It wasn't how to tank harder, it was why would you want to tank.  

You even said, "I thjnk my post was in response to some guys claiming the Canucks should have tanked harder ... why?"  I already responded as to why teams still tank.  Vancouver did a pretty good tank job attempt but it failed.  

Ok..I think we are going in circles here.  We both agree that top 3 picks are valuable.

 

But I am not changing my argument.  The person I was responding to above was implying that the Canucks were not doing enough to be "bad enough" to get a lotto pick (1-3).  (and I still question what more could have been done to out tank Buffalo...)

 

I pointed out that tanking is over rated in light of:

1) Most of the teams still alive in the playoffs today did not rely on picks 1-3 to build their team

2) In light of the revised lottery rules, it does not make as much sense to tank.  The fact is that the very WORST team has a 50/50 shot of NOT picking top 3. 

 

At that point you jumped in and pointed out that while Winnipeg, Las Vegas, Nashville etc are good teams they are not great teams (yet) like LA, Pitts, Chicago who all have top 3 picks and won cups.

 

I responded by saying that it is very UNLIKELY that those teams could have been built with the current draft lotto rules.  Those teams were built by draft lottery rules (from 1995 to 2012) where the worst you could do is fall 1 position and only the bottom 5 teams were in the lotto.(I wonder where Vancouver would be with those lotto rules )

 

Moving forward, if these lotto rules are enforced for the long term, we are going to see more and more teams that never had to do a full tank to get franchise level players.  When the block of teams outside of the bottom 3 have a comparable chance to the bottom 3 teams of winning one of those spots it is inevitable that you will see a Carolina, Philly or Winnipeg draft an elite player that will be a cornerstone for a cup team.

 

Yes top 3 picks are valuable, but in my opinion tanking with these  new lotto rules is over rated.  Trying to out do the biggest dog team in the NHL just so you can secure a 50/50 shot (at best!) of landing in the top 3, when a team like Philly, Carolina, or Winnipeg  are likely to jump in front of you just does not make sense.

 

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13 hours ago, CanadianRugby said:

Uh.. tanking doesn't work.

 

..except 2 out of last 3 years.

You make some good points though you could say.  How many Stanley Cups do those teams have in the Cap era COMBINED?  The argument was good vs great right?  Those teams are good.  Pens, Hawks & Kings were great.  Maybe one of these teams will get there, but they haven't yet and they'd have to do it for multiple years to be able to be compared to the past champs.  

 

Also, nobody ever said you draft in the top 3 and call it a day.  You think the teams that are drafting top 3 aren't drafting the right players, doing proper player development and trying to have good team chemistry also?  They're doing all that AND drafting in the top 3.  By your argument, if Vancouver had won the lottery suddenly they're not trying to do all these other things to build the team?  

 

I'm not saying Vancouver should have tanked harder, or crying that we lost another lottery.  Just stating facts as far as what has been winning Stanley Cups.  Virtually every single Stanley Cup winner under this system did it with a top 3 pick or multiple top 3 picks playing key roles to win those cups.  

 

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Posted (edited)

Funny thing about the draft lottery, the NBA draft lottery still helps the bottom teams a lot more and it is similar to the NHL's.

 

A big difference is, where the NHL reduced the odds for bottom teams and significantly increased the odds for teams that just missed the playoffs, the NBA gives the teams closest to the playoffs, only a  0.5 and 0.6 % chance at the top three, the NHL, 1.5 & 1.6%, almost a three times better chance and the whole odds board is similar. In the NBA the worst team gets a 25%, next 19.9% and then 13.8%, clearly the idea is for the worst two teams to have a much bigger chance for improvement. Of course the NBA has way more trades and a single player can have a disproportional impact on a game, see James.

 

While tanking is a true crap shoot now, 4 points this year would have had the Canucks picking 3rd overall, the last 10 games for the Canucks had them 6 - 2 - 2, the best record of all non playoff teams, a record that pulled them from 30th to 26th and just a 4 point improvement over the previous year. This year a 30th finish was good for #2 overall.

 

Still, there should be a decent player, Dobson or Bouchard available, Wahlstrom is going to Harvard, Boqvist will need a couple of years for growing, any of these players should make a dent in the NHL and this team isn't going anywhere for the next couple of years now that the rebuild has started and they lost over 150 points in the Sedins and Vanek moving on.

 

Now this is the argument, for the sake of 5 points, for a non playoff team, the difference of a #2 overall star player that would help the team for up to 10 years and step into the line up immediately vs a feel good story that might end up delaying/hurting the team an additional 2/3 years while waiting to see if this year's player is an impact guy. The team does not need another OJ.

Edited by TheGuardian_

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But I bet they draft another OJ...

and keep the new core super young, young enough to emerg after the pending strike and not before. 

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19 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

But I bet they draft another OJ...

and keep the new core super young, young enough to emerg after the pending strike and not before. 

With missing out, not being lucky at the lottery, getting as many top 5 selections as possible could help build three scoring lines, that is what it will take now, that and being bigger than they are.

 

Big Butt sure is impressive, he dominates just about all his shifts, last night it was ridiculous how he rag dolled two Preds at once, one in each hand.

 

I have been watching Meyers, you know I think Tryamkin is better than him already and has more upside offensively, Groot, IMO, is a much better skater and stronger on his skates.

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What could we really have done as fans?

 

We had a numerous regulars sitting out with injuries. 

Could the fans have tried to sign a petition to GM/ owners to swap out all the AHLers with ECHLers to reduce our chance to win every night?

 

Are we supposed to blame our players for competing (which is pretty much what they are paid to do)?

 

Were we supposed to educate our fanbase to stop cheering us through our last weeks of home games? (With Sedins announcing retirement?)

 

The Draft has not even happened. (let alone the results from it)

2nd ~ 5th overalls turning around a franchise immediately? Grass is always greener on the other side. 

 

Let's be more efficient with our time and share something more constructive than the blame game which is always an easy way to go about things.

 

What could have been done?

 

Lucky for us, this is a deep Draft class. 

Aside from Dahlin, I do not see a drastic drop-down in terms of potentials. I think it will be a matter of what teams need. 

As far as I could tell, we were in need of a D-man. 

If we were to draft 2nd or 3rd or even 4th, would we have selected a D-man? Unlikely. And would that put us in better position next year with our thin D-line? Unlikely.

Boqvist, Bouchard or even Dobson needing more time to season? Possibly as D's take longer to develop and it's a big jump to the NHL.

But do they have high ceilings? Absolutely. 

Wahlstrom I heard has been tearing up USNTDP. 

 

Issue here shouldn't be about where we are picking. It should be about who we are picking.

 

Only 1 team each year is perfect in this league. Every other team has some missing holes to fill. 

Our holes this year are bigger than most as we finished 6th from last. 

To build a perfect team takes fulfilling many components.

And I think a good supporting fanbase is one of the most important component. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, LowerMainLander18 said:

What could we really have done as fans?

 

We had a numerous regulars sitting out with injuries. 

Could the fans have tried to sign a petition to GM/ owners to swap out all the AHLers with ECHLers to reduce our chance to win every night?

 

Are we supposed to blame our players for competing (which is pretty much what they are paid to do)?

 

Were we supposed to educate our fanbase to stop cheering us through our last weeks of home games? (With Sedins announcing retirement?)

 

The Draft has not even happened. (let alone the results from it)

2nd ~ 5th overalls turning around a franchise immediately? Grass is always greener on the other side. 

 

Let's be more efficient with our time and share something more constructive than the blame game which is always an easy way to go about things.

 

What could have been done?

 

Lucky for us, this is a deep Draft class. 

Aside from Dahlin, I do not see a drastic drop-down in terms of potentials. I think it will be a matter of what teams need. 

As far as I could tell, we were in need of a D-man. 

If we were to draft 2nd or 3rd or even 4th, would we have selected a D-man? Unlikely. And would that put us in better position next year with our thin D-line? Unlikely.

Boqvist, Bouchard or even Dobson needing more time to season? Possibly as D's take longer to develop and it's a big jump to the NHL.

But do they have high ceilings? Absolutely. 

Wahlstrom I heard has been tearing up USNTDP. 

 

Issue here shouldn't be about where we are picking. It should be about who we are picking.

 

Only 1 team each year is perfect in this league. Every other team has some missing holes to fill. 

Our holes this year are bigger than most as we finished 6th from last. 

To build a perfect team takes fulfilling many components.

And I think a good supporting fanbase is one of the most important component. 

I think that the Canucks fanbase is largely represented by those still posting on this site.

 

Literally, this site always was, and always will be, a Canucks Fan Support Group.

 

Anyone posting about the team on here is a supporting fan. That, or insane. 

Edited by 189lb enforcers?
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3 hours ago, Darius71 said:

I think someone should start a thread where we discuss the pros and cons of tanking in the context of how the whole league is affected. 

 

Personally I lean towards being anti-tank because the nature of the new draft lotto rules make it relatively difficult to succeed.  It made more sense in the period of 1995-2012 where the bottom 5 teams were in the lotto and they could not fall more than one place in the standings.  Under the current rules the dead last team has a 50.50 chance of not picking top 3.

 

Aside from the mathematical constraints of tanking in the current league I have an ethical problem with a product that is manipulated to hinder the outcome.  Using tankist logic every team from dead last to 10th from last should tank (for instance why shouldnt chicago and edmonton and every team inbetween them and buffalo do the same?).  Manipulating your team to hinder the outcome not only affects your team but it affects other teams that are in a playoff race who may or may not have to play rosters that are manipulated.  In the end the product on the ice is influenced to the point where it is almost scripted (again imagine 1/3 of the league doing the same) ... a mockery that you expect hard working people to pay hundreds of dollars to watch in the arena. (Will tankists pay for season tickets to watch a product that has been influenced or designed to lose...perhaps...)  In the end if you guys want to watch a scripted and manipulated product...maybe WWE is more up your alley? 

The solution to tanking is simple, easy, open and beyond manipulation.

 

Take an average in the standings over a period of 3 years.

Bottom three (or four) have a lottery to pick for 1, 2, & 3.

If the same three (or four) teams for multiple years then put restraints on picking #1

If a team is bottom three (or four) multiple years then they move to the #4/5 position and that bottom team moves outside the top 3 picks with the next worst moving up.

No bottom three (or four) team can pick #1 more than twice over a 5 year period.

There would be "cap" considerations, a bottom team can only select the bottom three once and if still in the bottom third in cap spending they move up one spot out of the bottom three for each year they aren't spending, ie; Arizona could not pick any higher than #6 because they have had the lowest spending of all teams over a three year period.

 

Everything is by an average of three years.

That is most likely outside scouting a generational player and no team wants to tank for 3 to 4 years.

 

Tanking right now helps 15 teams instead of just the bottom 3, so tanking happens at the end of the year for all teams, it is improved chances at a top three pick. A 8th placed team has 19% chance of picking in the top 3, 11th place has only a  9.9% chance, that is only three games tanked for a team already out of the playoffs.

 

So IMO tanking is even more prevalent than before.

 

One reason the league may like the current system is the really bad teams get wins near the end of the season from tanking teams that make those really bad teams look better than they truly are.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

The solution to tanking is simple, easy, open and beyond manipulation.

 

Take an average in the standings over a period of 3 years.

Bottom three (or four) have a lottery to pick for 1, 2, & 3.

If the same three (or four) teams for multiple years then put restraints on picking #1

If a team is bottom three (or four) multiple years then they move to the #4/5 position and that bottom team moves outside the top 3 picks with the next worst moving up.

No bottom three (or four) team can pick #1 more than twice over a 5 year period.

There would be "cap" considerations, a bottom team can only select the bottom three once and if still in the bottom third in cap spending they move up one spot out of the bottom three for each year they aren't spending, ie; Arizona could not pick any higher than #6 because they have had the lowest spending of all teams over a three year period.

 

Everything is by an average of three years.

That is most likely outside scouting a generational player and no team wants to tank for 3 to 4 years.

 

Tanking right now helps 15 teams instead of just the bottom 3, so tanking happens at the end of the year for all teams, it is improved chances at a top three pick. A 8th placed team has 19% chance of picking in the top 3, 11th place has only a  9.9% chance, that is only three games tanked for a team already out of the playoffs.

 

So IMO tanking is even more prevalent than before.

 

One reason the league may like the current system is the really bad teams get wins near the end of the season from tanking teams that make those really bad teams look better than they truly are.

 

 

 

This could work...

 

The other suggestion I like is that the team with the best record (most points) after they are mathematically eliminated has the highest odds of winning the draw.  In this case Vancouver and Arizona would have had the highest odds  because they won the most (i think) down the stretch.  Teams that are bubble teams would not be eliminated till later and as a result wont have the points.  This way the basement teams that actually did their best to win down the stretch would have the best chance of winning.  This also makes it more competitive for teams that are in a playoff race....they are less likely to have the advantage/disadvantage of playing a team that  has mailed it in...

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2 hours ago, LowerMainLander18 said:

 

We had a numerous regulars sitting out with injuries. 

Could the fans have tried to sign a petition to GM/ owners to swap out all the AHLers with ECHLers to reduce our chance to win every night?

 

Are we supposed to blame our players for competing (which is pretty much what they are paid to do)?

 

Were we supposed to educate our fanbase to stop cheering us through our last weeks of home games? (With Sedins announcing retirement?)

 

The Draft has not even happened. (let alone the results from it)

2nd ~ 5th overalls turning around a franchise immediately? Grass is always greener on the other side. 

 

Let's be more efficient with our time and share something more constructive than the blame game which is always an easy way to go about things.

 

What could have been done?

The Mathews year TO mysteriously sat out Kadri at the end of the year, no real reason was ever given, just something like an internal discipline issue. Other players were sat out for "other" reasons. The TO fans cheered like little girls, the TO media were gushing about how smart it was to bomb to the bottom all talk was about being "bad before you can get good" and how smart that was. Now, after they have their dream child, tanking is the horrendously horrible insidious cheating of proper Canadian conduct.

 

New drafting rules are now rewarding teams that missed the playoff by 3 points with a top 3 pick or other teams that again announced they were blowing it up with praise and picks.

 

They system needs an idiot proof open method of drafting.

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4 minutes ago, Darius71 said:

This could work...

 

The other suggestion I like is that the team with the best record (most points) after they are mathematically eliminated has the highest odds of winning the draw.  In this case Vancouver and Arizona would have had the highest odds  because they won the most (i think) down the stretch.  Teams that are bubble teams would not be eliminated till later and as a result wont have the points.  This way the basement teams that actually did their best to win down the stretch would have the best chance of winning.  This also makes it more competitive for teams that are in a playoff race....they are less likely to have the advantage/disadvantage of playing a team that  has mailed it in...

You could massage winning into the idea, maybe the team with the most outright wins gets better odds for the #1, but then if the #4 or #5 team advances due to a chronic bottom feeder that would not work, maybe then it would be just the remaining 2 bottom teams in a lottery for #1 and the #4 or #5 team is awarded #3 pick.

 

At any rate using a system like this opens up trading if a team knows it has a top 3 pick for most of a year.

It doesn't required a 1000 number combinations be generated or re doing a selection because a team has already been selected, it is idiot proof and fair. It does what the draft is intended for, help the bottom teams that actually want the help.

 

In the 10 minutes or so of looking this type of proposed system, it is easy for just about anyone to understand.

 

Your idea is only for one year and again for a single year tanking is still possible. My suggested system eliminates a one year tank job and can't reward a 20th placed team with a top 3 pick just because they tanked 3 or 4 games.

 

As I posted, I think the league likes the other teams tanking because the bottom teams get wins from those teams to make those teams look better than they truly are.

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It will be hard to not pick a Dman at 7th.

JB can draft a forward there, but now is the time to go after Dcore players. 

 

If he does take Wahlstrom, great, any of those players are likely to be part of the new core. 

 

If it comes down to a dart-toss, I’d take the kid who is an animal, playoff warrior. That is what is most important to me. They’re all skilled so pick the kid with the biggest heart. 

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When we finish like 9th one year and end up winning a lottery spot, then everyone will be happy.  We're consistently getting top 5-7 picks the last 4 years which means we're adding solid prospects who are only ranked lower because they may need a bit more time to simmer and develop.  This lends itself to us going through a "slow build" with consistently more top 5-top 8 guaranteed picks, which means we may be developing a more DEEP team as opposed to a top heavy team.  Its rare now to tank back to back and get players like Malkin & Crosby in consecutive years.  Being deep is the new trend I'd say, and were doing a great job of building a DEEP prospect pool and focusing on developing them the right way.

 

I for one see a benefit to this lottery, and could see us in one of the later years in our rebuild stage possibly lucking out and adding a top 3 player which could put us over the top.  We're doing awesome with the cards that we've been dealt so far, and its fun to see the young kids develop together.  Horvat was seen as our best prospect in years a couple years ago and now I wouldn't even rank him in the top 3 in terms of future production so you all need to simmer down. 

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58 minutes ago, .Naslund said:

When we finish like 9th one year and end up winning a lottery spot, then everyone will be happy.  We're consistently getting top 5-7 picks the last 4 years which means we're adding solid prospects who are only ranked lower because they may need a bit more time to simmer and develop.  This lends itself to us going through a "slow build" with consistently more top 5-top 8 guaranteed picks, which means we may be developing a more DEEP team as opposed to a top heavy team.  Its rare now to tank back to back and get players like Malkin & Crosby in consecutive years.  Being deep is the new trend I'd say, and were doing a great job of building a DEEP prospect pool and focusing on developing them the right way.

 

I for one see a benefit to this lottery, and could see us in one of the later years in our rebuild stage possibly lucking out and adding a top 3 player which could put us over the top.  We're doing awesome with the cards that we've been dealt so far, and its fun to see the young kids develop together.  Horvat was seen as our best prospect in years a couple years ago and now I wouldn't even rank him in the top 3 in terms of future production so you all need to simmer down. 

Besides BB and Pettersson (who still haven't done anything) do you see as our top 3?

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On 02/05/2018 at 9:36 AM, spook007 said:

Besides BB and Pettersson (who still haven't done anything) do you see as our top 3?

Include Demko in there above horvat

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On ‎5‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 8:37 AM, .Naslund said:

I for one see a benefit to this lottery, and could see us in one of the later years in our rebuild stage possibly lucking out and adding a top 3 player which could put us over the top.  We're doing awesome with the cards that we've been dealt so far, and its fun to see the young kids develop together.  Horvat was seen as our best prospect in years a couple years ago and now I wouldn't even rank him in the top 3 in terms of future production so you all need to simmer down. 

This lottery will be changed because it isn't working fast enough for US teams to rebuild. LA, ANA, Minny, there are numerous US teams that will lose their fan base and money very quickly if they have prolonged rebuilds due to not being able to draft in the top 3 like the Canucks, Oilers, Flames, even TO and Montreal will/would have so much pressure from those fan bases to be quick about it that they openly tanked, both got lucky, TO got the #1 and Montreal got the #3, Montreal hasn't really had two bad seasons in a row but.

 

Next years draft is likely the last that will have this format, I expect the new CBA, will have a format that guarantee's top three picks for the worst teams, the new system will limit/reduce or add percentage points to the bottom teams, something more like he NBA's where the teams close to the playoff only get tenth's of a percent at the top draft picks.

 

It is way too early to state this team's prospects are awesome and what the team has achieved so far is being the worst team in the league over the last 3 years, on averages.

 

What young kids developing together? All three of them? Sven and Granlund aren't young kids, not anymore, by NHL standards of today they have likely reached their peak at 26. Motte, Leipsic, Goldy? Not enough time for an estimate, Goldy only played so much down he stretch because of "injuries", Green will still bench him because of defensive play, not putting out every shift, to show him who is boss, off ice issues, some reason the same with other "rookies". He wanted to send Boeser down but Boeser scored too often at that he still benched him two games, if Virtanen stared potting goals he wouldn't have been benched either but then Virtanen hasn't got the same opportunities as Boeser or even vets that are taking days/games off at a time.

 

I look forward to see what is going to happen over the next 2 1/2 months, drafting is not enough to build a wining team, deft trades are needed as well, IMO if they sign 3 FA's the team will not see very many prospects get much of a shot a the team, they say a rookie can out play a vet and get a spot, they have said that for 4 years, has it happened? Nope. All that has been seen is a rookie already slated for he team move up in the line up while vets plug away dong little more than the rookies not playing.

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