MikeyD

There is a reason why some would take him there, I just don't believe he's worth a 11th overall pick. He's not dynamic enough offensively to warrant that high of a draft position, that's all. He's not a bad prospect. I just don't think he's your typical 1st round defensive talent. This year defensemen are being catapulted up the draft board because the class is so weak defensively. The reason why Reinbacher is so high up is because of how complete his defense is. He's not a huge offensive threat either and in any other year I doubt he's talked about as possibly the top drafted dman, despite me loving his game and how mature he is defensively. Guys like Reinbacher I actually typically prefer in the late first round. Willander has skill, it's just a very very simplified game and he's fundamentally lacking just a small small bit in some areas positionally, offensively and creatively. You're not gonna be angry at that pick unless it's in the top half of the draft, then you should expect more in my opinion. With that said, he will go in the first round. I predict he has a 90% chance of being selected anywhere from 15-30. When the defensive class is this empty, people are gonna reach to get him. I just wouldn't be thrilled at all with selecting him at 11. I would however enjoy following him on his way to see if he ends up a top 4 talent. He's poised to be. He is a fairly safe bet to be a top 6 guy and if he lands should definitely be a top 4 guy, possibly top 3.

Edit #1: might as well edit this list as well as I'm scouting more Also wanted to put out a short list for the Canucks at pick #11 and what I'd do if I were GM: Players that will not fall to us but if they do by some stroke of divine judgment, take immediately in this order: 1)Michkov 2)Benson Players that have a chance to fall to us but would be lucky to get, select immediately: 1)Moore Players we have a realistic shot of getting and should be drafted in my preferred order: 1)Simashev 2)Reinbacher 3)Perron (would trade down to make this selection) 4)Sawchyn (would also trade down for this selection and if it doesn't pan out, draft Perron) 5)Ryan Leonard Players I'd be alright with if they were selected but cautiously optimistic (but also slightly disappointed) about: 1)Will Smith (good player but his game needs a bit of translation to work in the NHL, doubt he falls to us anyhow as he's rated high on boards but he's no doubt a great playmaker but he cheats in a lot of aspects) 2)Sandin Pellika 3)Willander 4)Barlow 5)Danielson Everybody else I probably wouldn't be thrilled about at the 11 spot as there should be other players available that in my opinion are BPA's. Edit: typo

Alright boys, finished my preliminary draft scouting. The most I've done thus far (had time and YouTube has more people doing shift by shifts to analyze more prospects). Here's my list and breakdowns of what I see. A lot of my scouting is from older games though, so these players likely progressed to become better players throughout the season. With that said, I'll explain some of my positioning in my order... In the first round I typically look for high end talent and the probability that 1)they'll land in the NHL and that their game is translatable and 2)how much will it impact the team if they were to draft them. Some of these picks are a bit off the board but I try to explain the reasoning behind them. I also tried to break it down into tiers of where I thought there were gaps in talent/skill/projectability. Anyways here's my list! ---------- 2023 NHL draft Tier: 1 1)Connor Bedard - will be a star in the draft. Almost guaranteed first liner unless derailed by injuries. Phenomenal shot. Phenomenal vision and decent passing. May end up being a top 5 player in the league. Chance at long term NHL career: 100% Tier 2: 2)Matvei Michkov - very close to Bedard in terms of talent. In my opinion has better hands than Bedard, but Bedard has a better shot overall. Isn't overly physical but will throw the body if unsuspected, but overall super engaged throughout the game. In any other draft I personally have him as the top player. His absolute best ceiling we are looking at a top 10 player. Bedard has higher IQ, but Michkov is a very intelligent player with the best deception in the draft. Absolutely sensational to watch. Only reason I have him higher than Fantilli even though Fantilli does it all and is the jack of all trades is I find he's more consistent with his offensive prowess and the way he generates offense is more translatable to the NHL in my opinion than Fantilli's. Is more of a game changer on a weaker team, however both players could be easily interchanged depending on what style of player you like and although it's a controversial opinion, I am willing to take the risk on this player to unlock a franchise changing offensive player. Very high chance at 1st liner, slight potential of ending up a 3rd line player at minimum but the way he plays the game leads me to believe he will be a star in the league. He is more raw than Fantilli, however some of these tools that he is presenting are EXTREMELY rare and are only seen in the upper echelon of talent in the NHL. His ability to get his release off is very similar to Cole Caufield (who again I also called being a great goal scorer in the NHL because he possesses that ability to get his shot off very quickly) but he has a better one-timer than Caufield and his shot is harder. He just has this cerebral offensive attack to the game that is very similar to a Leon Draisaitl. There is a reason some of his numbers put him above Kaprizov and only behind Ovi and Malkin in the KHL. He has his flaws, as sometimes he can push the puck towards the other team trying to be too creative with his passing and his defense isn't as tight as you'd hope, but he just has those tiny high level capabilities offensively that are so rare to see in a kid his age. This is a hill I will die on and I think if this kid drops in the draft past spot 5, there will be teams kicking themselves for being moronic. If I were to combine types of players from the Canucks I would say he has hands like Petey, skating like Garland, defense and IQ like JT Miller and has some of that cerebral offensive game that Kuzmenko possesses when it comes to being off the puck and willing to be smart offensively. I'd say his passing is a mix between Miller and Kuzmenko as it can sometimes be dangerous, but more often than not works out and is willing to risk a turnover for a high danger chance. Very good with short passes but isn't the safest player, however that in my opinion is one of the easiest things to coach out of a player. You can't coach the confidence and ability to use your hands in a phone booth or to snap off the puck on net before a goalie can react to the play or the deceptiveness to appear like a threat and then have a quick short distribution to an easy tap in. With that said if I'm Anaheim as a GM I would be drafting Fantilli based on the franchise. However I rank these based on how good I think these players will end up. Would you prefer to have a Patrick Kane or would you prefer to have a Ryan Getzlaf type player? Chance at long term NHL career: 90% 3)Adam Fantilli - most versatile player in the draft. Hits, high IQ, engaged, great skill. Very likely to become at minimum a 2nd line player, very good chance at becoming a first line player. Only con is he requires creative players around him to unlock his game to its highest potential. The argument that he should be 2nd overall is extremely fair and I understand why most people have him above Michkov. Much better defensively than Michkov but one thing he lacks (and it's still very very good) in comparison to Michkov is his deceptiveness when he's playmaking. He makes the right passes consistently, but consistency sometimes leads to predictability which is why I don't value him as much as Michkov and I think his scoring ability is a touch less than Michkov, however still elite in terms of prospects. Fantilli will be a very good player and is a very safe pick and any team should be ecstatic to have this prospect. Literally does it all. Most people have him as a clear #2 but his play in the World Juniors was concerning as I didn't feel he had that killer instinct that we often saw when he played for Michigan. I find he leans more into making those around him better as opposed to trying to take control of a game by the neck (he does have this ability). This is a mixed bag as I sometimes see it leading to inconsistency offensively. This is a 9.5/10 prospect. Chance at long term NHL career: 95% Tier 3: 4)Leo Carlsson - very mature game. Uses his size well. Very engaged offensively away from the puck. A- hands and shot. NHL ready. Ceiling could be 1st line, very high floor. At minimum 3rd line, very likely 2nd line and good chance at first line if he continues to develop. The most challenging thing about this prospect is that you can tell he has the tools, but with him playing such top notch competition in the SHL you don't get to see some of his more shining moments as often. His game looks very translatable to the NHL, but I'm still undecided on if he will be elite or if he will be a middle of the road kind of player. He doesn't take over games but he has the skills to do so. His edge work is phenomenal for somebody 6'3" and he uses his size well. He does a lot of things right which makes me confident in his game but I just don't know if his skill is groundbreaking (could be!) or if it'll simply end up top 6 complementary player. I'd like to see him work on his playmaking a bit more. Opens the ice up really well but needs to just improve his passing a bit to make me more confident. This is where Adam Fantilli gets the nod above him by a noticeable margin. Chance at long term NHL career: 90% Tier: 4 5)Zach Benson - fairly big drop off in talent here. His skating isn't as good as the class above which hurts his stock. Probably the smartest player in the draft (including Bedard). Understands both ends of the ice. Tenacious on the forecheck, probably top 2 away from the puck after Bedard). Best mix of offensive/defensive player but his skating and raw talent holds him back a bit here. If he can improve his skating he could end up a phenomenal player. Slight chance for first liner, good chance of 2nd liner if he improves his skating, very good chance to become a third liner at minimum. His skating isn't bad but his top speed is very average. If he can get faster and improve his shot he will be a steal in this draft. Playmaking is top tier. Best forechecker in the draft. Chance at long term NHL career: 80%, if he improves his skating then 95%. Tier 5: 6)Oliver Moore - another drop off in tier here from the top 5. A lot of fundamentals are good with this player and is engaged quite a bit. Playmaking is pretty good but his decision making is what hurts him the most here. He's just inconsistent in this regard. Sometimes he will make a nice seam pass and then the next moment he's skating the puck into defenders and isn't processing the game quickly enough. This happens way too often and is why he is a tier lower than Benson. Benson reads the play incredibly well, as where Oliver Moore sometimes does and sometimes doesn't. Moore and Benson have relatively the same amount of skill (Benson is a better playmaker though with his reads and is better defensively). Moore is no slouch though and has a good motor like Benson does and is a much better skater (above average, I'd probably rate it an 8.5/10). Very active player which is phenomenal to see. Just needs to improve his decision making. So far, not NHL ready and is probably at minimum a year to a couple years or so out from being in the NHL if he improves his game. Decent penalty killer. Has a good chance at being a third liner, a small chance at being a 2nd liner. Would need to improve a lot to become a first liner. Could potentially be a decent complementary piece if he improves but is also fairly decent at play driving. Has good creativity, just needs better IQ on when to use it. He has the raw fundamental tools to build on, and his skating alone will land him a very good chance with his already established skill set that he should be successful as long as he puts in the work. Despite Will Smith being the better playmaker, I believe Moore actually has the highest upside offensively. Chance at long term NHL career: 75% 7)Dmitriy Simashev - the sleeper of the draft. Towering defenseman who knows how to use his size and is absolutely phenomenal with his skating especially for a player this size. Very very smart positionally. In my opinion the most sound positionally defenseman in the draft (when combined both offensively and defensively). Very good activation with and away from the puck. Weak shot which hurts his game but his passing is probably an 8.5/10. Supports the play almost every time and knows how to be a stay at home defenseman. Will very likely be a top 4 dman, has a good chance at being a top 3 and if he can improve his offense can become a top 2. Very good IQ and engagement at his age. Think a larger Chris Tanev but with a bit less IQ. He didn't put up points, but make no mistake that isn't due to his style of play. His skating opens up the blue line for him well (is a pass first player so doesn't walk the line too much but is great at taking space when it's given to him) and he can take the puck into the high slot moving around players to make plays. He has a very high floor and an underrated ceiling. Lots of similarities to Sergachev for me but with a weaker shot but better skating. Is a bit weaker defensively than Reinbacher, but has a higher offensive ceiling than him too. Chance at long term NHL career: 90% 8)David Reinbacher - very similar player to Dmitriy Simashev. Pass first defensemen who are very smart defensively. Is more physical than Simashev however and has a better shot. Skating is good but not as good as Simashev's. Another very intelligent defender away and with the puck. I find he's a very simplified defender but has flashes of creativity offensively. Very likely to be a top 4 pick. Think of Elder in his prime but without the bomb of a shot. He's clever with his shooting and utilizes screens well. Knows most of the time when to make plays and knows what type of play to make in order to play a very mature and safe, NHL ready game. Supports the play well, is very active defensively as well off the puck. Is the best defensively in the draft. The reason why I have him below Simashev is because I'd like to see a bit more creativity but overall he will be very serviceable as a dman. I think most likely he will end up a #3 dman if he can improve his edge work a bit more but has a very high floor so will very likely be top 4 with a low chance of being a #5 dman if his skating doesn't improve. I personally have him very close if not already to NHL ready as long as he can adapt to the speed of the game well. With larger rinks his skating is more than adequate but find with less room to maneuver his skating and pivots are a bit choppy. The best dman in the draft at winning board battles and net front battles. Very active stick which is what you want to see. My only gripe with this player is that I'm not sure if he has a high enough ceiling to be worth being taken at a high spot in the first round. I do find this pick to be very safe though and the team that gets him won't be too disappointed as long as they don't take him in the top 5, in which I don't anticipate happening anyways. Chance at long term NHL career: 95% Tier 6: 9)Jayden Perron - a decent play driver with good hands and above average playmaking ability. Smaller player that is good at engaging, above average on the forecheck but is prone to releasing the puck in the offensive zone to the other team trying to force passes through. Sometimes shows flash and is really fun to watch but other times keeps the game quite simple and in that simplicity is where I think he shines the most as he can effectively move the puck and get to an open space for give and goes. If he gets his skates going he becomes a very effective player but can also lay off the gas which makes him far less effective. His hands set up his playmaking and isn't shy to take defenders on 1 on 1 and when he's motoring he takes defenders on effectively most of the time. Some of the best hands in the draft. This pick is a sleeper pick and is being way overlooked. He is ranked to be late first round but in my opinion is far more ready for the NHL than a lot of other high ranked prospects. He's reliable defensively. Will cover the points for defensemen, will back check and is decent on the forecheck. If he can find a way to consistently build speed in the neutral zone he will be potentially the worst pass-over of this draft. Has a small chance to be a top line guy and a decent chance to be a top 9 guy, but realistically his ceiling is probably top 6. Good playmaking and vision, decent speed and great hands. If he's with a speedy forward this kid will shine. Really underrated in this draft. Should not be taken in the late first/early 2nd round based on the forwards in this draft as he is currently ranked by most scouts. He is far more consistent in making the right play than many of his peers in this grouping. Needs to improve strength along the walls and to become more consistent with playing to his strengths. On a high flying team he will excel and on a defensive squad he will fit in. Good off the puck. Chance at long term NHL career: 50%. 10)Will Smith - another player similar to Oliver Moore as he has some raw tools but is inconsistent with his decision making. Can make some phenomenal plays but can be a turnover machine as well. Will drive the play. Skating is very average and needs to improve, but is good at utilizing the skating he does have. Has raw talent though, as he has a decent enough shot, great passing when it works and is great at drawing defenders out of position to set up plays. Would like to see him be more of a threat away from the puck however. Can be floaty at times but his raw skill usually sets him up for success but needs to figure out how to unlock this potential more. He is a less complete player than Oliver Moore but also has better raw tools and is a much more consistent playmaker, but is far weaker in skating. Has an inconsistent motor. Can be great at times but weak in others. He is a frustrating player to watch though as he has flashes of brilliant hockey and then will put himself into bad situations the next. His balance is weak as well so is pushed off the puck quite often on games he doesn't quite have it. Small chance at first line, okay chance at 2nd line and a possibly decent chance at third line depending on if a coach will tolerate his lack of defense. He has a relatively high ceiling but also isn't as safe a pick as I'd like. I'd say high risk high reward. Needs to work on his forecheck, skating and consistency. One of his weakest attributes is his skating and although he can anticipate plays, beating faster players to these spots is what hurts him the most. At this level it's okay but unless he improves his skating he has absolutely no chance at the NHL level. His anticipation is his best attribute in the offensive zone but tends to cheat and isn't a great backchecker so he gets more opportunity to puts up points than somebody paying attention to both ends of the ice. He is probably the most consistent passer on his team but can put himself into positions where he holds onto the puck and is too patient. By far the most frustrating player on the team because when he is on he is very good but when he's off you'd wish he wasn't on the ice. This is why I have him dropped in my rankings. His effort is the least consistent on this group of US players. There is a high chance this player ends up playing a few games in the NHL but not sticking because a lot of his tendencies won't work in the NHL but I could see him putting up points in lower levels of hockey easily. I could also see this guy getting murdered by a hit for the style of play and getting derailed by injuries. Without a doubt one of the most creative players in the draft though and his creativity is what boosts him in the rankings. If you analyze how much he pays attention to the details you can see the immaturity in his game however and how many plays he makes will land him turning the puck over at the NHL level. If this pick lands however and he figures these things out and learns to become a bit safer, he could be an elite playmaker in the NHL. Chance at long term NHL career: 50% 11)Ryan Leonard - a poor man's Adam Fantilli. Kind of the jack of all trades but missing the IQ that Fantilli possesses. Will hit, back check, forecheck and anticipate plays well. Has flashes of brilliant playmaking and has a good shot. However like most of his teammates, is very prone to skating the puck into bad positions and turning the puck over. His playmaking I find is his weakness as he's a better goal scorer in my opinion as he moves to open space decently and is good at creating havoc in the offensive zone. If he can work on his decision making we have a really solid player here but with his average level skating and decision making with the puck, he's yet to show at an NHL level where the game has to be processed much faster that he'd thrive in that environment. Has a lot of raw tools and is a good finisher and can force the opposition into turning the puck over, but needs to be smarter with the puck more consistently to make the NHL. Could be a top 6 guy, but will require lots of work on things that are typically naturally you have to be good at. So far I think it's more likely if he does pan out it'd be on a third line role or complementary 2nd line guy, but he is still a couple years from that projection. Medium risk, medium reward. Would like to see him drive the play a bit more. Chance at long term NHL career: 60% 12)Gracyn Sawchyn - sleeper pick alert! The talent is raw but the mindset is phenomenal. If he can work on his conditioning and overall engagement a bit more, he will be a steal in the draft. When this kid is motoring he is extremely dynamic but when he isn't motoring he can sometimes just appear disinterested. Some of the best hands in the draft and will drive the play. Great at finding open space away from the puck and has great anticipation defensively. If this kid can focus on keeping his skates moving he will be a very good player as he has all of the creativity in the world. He was hidden behind a very deep team, so I anticipate him jumping up in value with a bigger role. Chance at long term NHL career: 50% Tier 7: 13)Colby Barlow - this pick may be wildly different depending on what and where you like to draft specific players. He's a big boy at 6'1" and uses his size to engage physically better than anybody in the draft. Has a motor for days and is willing to engage on the forecheck a lot. Think of Sam Bennet but with less skill and creativity. He's all over the ice, throwing hits, staying engaged and has some offensive prowess to boot. Doesn't have the most raw talent in the world but the way he plays the game is very Canadian and I think really makes him an appealing player. The thing that hurts him the most is his ceiling. At the NHL level his offensive prowess with his plays won't be as strong, so he's likely to end up a third line player but a very effective one if he plays smart and isn't overly aggressive to a fault. Has a small chance at being a 2nd line player but at minimum I see him being an effective 4th line player. Has a very strong shot but what hurts him the most is his skating prevents him from using cuts to head to the more dangerous areas of the ice. Can be a perimeter player a lot of times. Average playmaking ability but can be creative, just not creative enough to be the play driver with the puck necessary to be a top offensive talent. If he can figure that part of his game out he will be a real dark horse in this draft. He has a good shot, but if he can learn to get to more dangerous areas to get this shot off he will become a very very good player. Great floor (should become a depth player) and a small chance at becoming a top 6 player if he can put things together. His IQ is low though. Think Jake Virtanen but with a much better motor. If he can learn to use his hands more and slow the play down instead of panicking with the puck he will be a great pick. This is a safe depth pick, but there is a good chance he will not be an impact player. Could be a good complimentary piece with a smart player however. Chance at long term NHL career: 70% 14)Nate Danielson - big center on a weak team, still produced decently. Good skating for his size, could increase his explosiveness but is quite economic in the use of his energy. Typically makes the safe and smart play. Pretty quick to make decisions. Average passing ability but good vision. Good away from the puck and good but not great defensively. Will cover for teammates well and plays a mature game. If paired with good line mates I can see 2nd line potential, but likely a 3rd line center with a decent chance for this role. Would need to work on being more individualistic and challenging players in order to have a longshot chance of being a first liner however has the smarts for it. With a mature game, he's not a super risky pick but also isn't displaying the highest ceiling yet but also having played on a weak Wheat Kings team, we may not have seen his potential. Needs a bit of work positionally in the defensive zone but has the right idea. Just needs more coaching. I like this player but I'd probably aim to snag him in the 15-20 range. Has a higher chance of making a career in the NHL than a lot of players in the draft but also a lower chance of being a game breaking first round pick. Chance at long term NHL career: 55% 15)Quentin Musty - has raw talent but average skating ability which will need to be improved upon to make it to the NHL. Skating is choppy in transitions as his crossovers don't generate speed however his stride is powerful enough in a straight away that it's okay. However, has a pretty effective release and isn't afraid to get the puck off his stick in a hurry which is one of his best skills. Cheats a bit offensively likely due to awareness of his poor transition skating. Does an above average job at positioning himself for plays. Has a decent chance at becoming a top six player but is likely to be a complementary winger on a line. If he can improve his hands and 1 on 1 situations he could elevate to that top 6 status but as of now I predict more of a third line role or a 2nd unit powerplay guy. Has the offensive talent, just needs to put his game together to become more of a threat at the NHL level. If placed on a good line could be serviceable. Would like to see him work on his skating and challenge defenders more once he figures out how to improve his lateral movement. Not much of a play driver despite having decent hands, a good shot and great vision with 8/10 passing ability. Chance at long term NHL career: 45% Tier 8: 16)Gavin Brindley - another undersized forward that plays a pretty darn good two-way game. 8.5/10 motor, very engaged and is always competing. Good IQ, has moments of doing very well under pressure but his size limits his ceiling a bit. Great hands, great vision and decent passing. Has a good mix of east/west and north/south game. I like this player, I just worry about his size limiting his effectiveness. Could end up top 6 (small chance) but has a decent chance at top 9 and could be a good depth player. I like this kid. Underrated in this draft due to size like quite a few players this year. Pretty complete player but not a game breaking talent. Chance at long term NHL career: 50% 17)Otto Stenberg - plays a mature, simple possession game. Has flashes of higher talent as he possesses a good shot and can show good hands but overall keeps his game pretty simple unless given lots of room to work with. Decent off the puck. What may limit him is just his high end talent but he does possess enough to have a decent chance at the NHL level as a possible third liner. I expect end of 1st round or somewhere in the 2nd for him to be taken. Chance at long term NHL career: 35% 18)Axel Sandin Pellikka - lots of potential and has flashes of brilliant hockey but also flashes of a really immature game. Not the smartest when under pressure, which leads me to be very very cautious with his development. Doesn't particularly have good board battles, can watch the puck too often and is overly resistant to tying up sticks. Tends to lead with his stick which is okay 1 on 1 but in certain situations it throws him out of position because he's attacking defensively at the wrong angles. Still raw defensively. However has good skating and is known for his offense. As good as it is at a junior level when playing with men it falls off as he becomes noticably less risky. He has an advantage with the large rinks with his style of play and I see a huge adjustment necessary for playing against men in a NA rink. However one thing he is very good at is snapping the puck on net to create havoc and go for tips when he's run himself out of options. Would like to see higher IQ in a dman which is why I'm not as high on him as many other prospects. Ceiling is top 2 but I don't see it personally and would need everything to go right. I can see top 3 with an okayish chance if development goes well but realistically I see him more as a #5 guy unless he finds a way to drastically improve a lot of aspects in his game. I'd target him in the later teens but not before unless he somehow becomes the BPA. This is the perfect candidate of somebody having 100 different tools but not being a master in any of them. If he can master a few of them he has high potential, but he is just very raw with his toolset. I'd like to see better defense from him. He has flashes of it but in the important areas a defenseman should be good in (along the wall and in the slot) he leaves a lot to be desired. With that said offensively he is better than most in this draft. Chance at long term NHL career: 60% 19)Andrew Cristall - this player is a very interesting mid-late round pick. Reason being is because he's very small at 5'10", but here's the thing... He's not bad. But also what makes him bad is his height. Now most small players I'm usually against the "being small=bad" automatically train, but in this case I think when it comes to the NHL level his height is going to be a challenge. Although he's aggressive on the forecheck, he doesn't even utilize the little size he has to establish body position. Just kind of pretends to hit behind on forechecks and doesn't try to get in-between stick or puck. Has flashes of being good defensively (like on the backcheck) but then becomes too much of a puck watcher and not sound enough positionally in his own end. Disengaged in his own end is how I'd describe him but will use his speed to get back. Skating is interesting. Very quick acceleration, however average top end speed. Gets up to speed quick but doesn't out-pace the opposition. However what makes him good is that he has good hands and decent playmaking ability and wants to skate the puck to open up the ice to make plays. Now the reason why I'm against him is that I think this is where his size will hurt him. In the NHL a lot of his best aspects will be limited to playing to his strengths. If he can become more shifty and increase his top end speed by bettering his strength, he has a chance to become a steal in this draft. His IQ is decent offensively, but would just like to see him find ways to get to more dangerous areas that could make him more effective. Has potential but like Gabe Perrault, has some fundamental flaws that may limit him from catering to his strengths. If he lands though, will be a solid pick. Ceiling is top 6 (small chance). Big chance however of him not panning out if he can't figure out how to be somebody like Garland who is small but can still be effective. I can see why people like this player. Is dynamic offensively. Jayden Perron is just a bit more complete but a very similar player, but also uses his size more effectively than Cristall. Is a very fun prospect to watch though. High risk with a fairly sizeable reward considering where he's likely to end up being drafted. Reminds me of a Nils Highlander on crack, but with less tools and better vision. Potential sleeper pick. Excited to see where this kid ends up and if he pans out. Chance at long term NHL career: 30% Tier 9: 20)Daniel But - gigantic 6'5" player with good hands and good finish and better than average skating for somebody his size. Not a lot of film on him so I don't know enough about this player and how his IQ is but from highlights looks like he has promise but is a bit of a project. Chance at long term NHL career: not sure. Don't have enough tape on this kid. Tier 10: 21)Tom Willander - not bad but not great as a dman. Decent anticipation skills, not overly creative offensively, not flashy, not the best defensively. He's alright. Similar to defenseman Elias Petterson. Plays a fairly simple game but can have nice edge work and be effective but nothing ground breaking. Possible top 4 potential that I'd give an okayish chance to. I see him ending up in either the 4 or 5 spot if he continues to progress. One thing I really like is he's very active in tying up sticks. Seems good on the walls but has a tendency to puck watch and not scan enough. Offensively he shines with lots of space but is very mediocre when he isn't given room. I personally wouldn't take him until the 2nd round. Chance at long term NHL career: 50% 22)Brayden Yager - another player with offensive talent but is just very inconsistent. Worked on his playmaking this year but is a solid finisher with an NHL ready shot (especially his snap shot) and still in my opinion, an average playmaker. Can put up points but still needs to sharpen his decision making and quick reactions. Is 6'0" but plays smaller than he is. He's not bad, but still needs to sharpen all of the tools in the toolbox in order to make the NHL. Skating is good enough though but needs more engagement away from the play. Will take a while to develop, shouldn't be rushed to the NHL and I don't think teams will try to. Not a top ten pick in my opinion but could see him selected in the top 20. I'd like to see more consistency in his game to select him there, but his finishing is probably top 10 in the draft so I think he will be selected there despite flaws in other areas. Has a good shot but I worry about him getting to the areas he needs to get to in order to get it off at the NHL level. Could end up a 30 goal scorer or he could also end up a 10 goal scorer if he doesn't improve in the ways he needs to with limited ice time. Personally, 17-30 is a good range for him. Chance at long term NHL career: 30% 23)Gabe Perault - a playmaker that is just simply inconsistent. Has flashes of high IQ plays but then times where he displays poor decision making. Has good creativity, shows patience with the puck but can also over handle the puck and put his team in bad spots. Tends to pass more than shoot which can be good a lot of times but can also become predictable. Often times tends to overpass. His vision is very good but sometimes just forces plays that are too fancy. Skating is average (acceleration is weak however) but is a smaller player and can be outmuscled a lot, and with the lack of shiftiness tends to get himself into bad situations. A lot of similarities between the USNDTP players as they all are very creative, can make high quality plays but can also run themselves into trouble very easily and all require some seasoning. Perault is rated a bit lower down due to his weak work along the walls due to his size. Has potential to be a top 6 player but he would get outmuscled heavily in the NHL and would require good line mates around him to be effective. Kind of a high risk medium reward player. I predict he will be drafted around the 17-25 range. If he pans out you could have a decent player but out of all of the US players going in the first round, I found him to be weakest, despite giving decent enough efforts. He tried to be consistent but his physical limitations combined with his poor acceleration take away his strengths in his playmaking. If he can improve his skating and consistency a lot he could be a steal in this draft. I like his play away from the puck and if he can get to where he wants in time does a good job of supporting the play. This one is a project with a high bust potential but also has a much better ceiling than a lot of players around him near the 20's in the draft. Chance at long term NHL career: 15% 24)Oscar Fisker Molgaar - a 6 foot complete two-way player. Nothing fancy, but does a lot of detail oriented things right. Great defensively, good hustle, really good IQ and is good off the puck. He doesn't have all of the tools to be elite but I see him as a potential effective top 9 guy (very small chance, but a chance nonetheless of top 6). His good reads and good forechecking lands him in the late first round for me. I think there is untapped potential there to potentially be a Yanni Gourde type player but would require a lot of seasoning to get there but the potential is certainly there if the stars align. Needs to improve the plays he makes on the wall as he tends to eat up checks and try to protect the puck but if he can get more creative there he will have some good promise. His IQ and ability to read the game is his best asset but needs to improve his tape to tape ability and shooting. Has the right idea but just lacks some execution. Chance at long term NHL career: 35% 25)Samuel Honzek - big body who has a huge advantage playing over junior players. Offensively, leaves a lot to be desired and is kind of just average at most things but one thing he does excel in is his board play. He knows how to shield the puck and make short passes along the wall and is tops in the draft at doing this. Defensively he is actually quite good. He isn't a motor by any means but he's kind of a jack of all trades safe pick who happens to be a big body. Likely will end up middle six but will need lots of improvement to his offensive toolkit to crack the top 6. I don't think he has enough tools to be a top line player but he has a decent chance to be a bottom six guy. There's potential there but so far it's not unlocked but has the physical tools (size and skating) to accomplish this if he is dedicated. Latter third first round pick for me. Chance at long term NHL career: 50% 26)Eduard Sale - this is one of the more interesting picks. In some ways he's a safe player to choose and in other ways he has high bust potential. He is a very mixed bag because he has decent IQ and is very quick to make decisions (often times the right decision but also often times the super safe play). What hurts him the most isn't the skating or the tools he has, it's his tenacity. He's a player that you can see is processing the game and anticipating the game at the right speed, but it's as if he is lethargic and just isn't in the mood to skate hard most of the time. If this kid had a motor and tenacity, he would be probably a 10th overall pick easily but because he does so much gliding around the ice, I think he will slide in the draft. I personally wouldn't feel happy taking him until early 2nd round (as I view the first round as where you take risks to get players that help change your franchise) but I understand why somebody could take him in the 10-20 range also. He's not bad, he just seems disengaged. I struggle ranking him because he does a lot of things right, but he could also end up being a guy that gets to the AHL and phones it in as well. But then again, he has the playmaking, he has the shot, he has the defense, his skating is decent. Could easily be a player that proves me wrong in not being sold on him, but the more I watched of him the more I became a bit more hesitant. The NHL is such a quick game that there's no time to mozey to the puck or where the play is. His mind is that quick, just his feet aren't. Chance at long term NHL career: 35% 27)Calum Ritchie - another middle of the road prospect. Nothing to really write home about. Not the smartest thinking player, but at least shows engagement. Will backcheck and plays on the pk. When he generates speed in the neutral zone he can back off defenders but ultimately his decision making and what to do away from the puck hurts him the most. It's not that he doesn't move his skates, it's that he seems lost in where to to go. Tends to make life on his teammates harder by skating in behind players than presenting easier, simpler passing lanes he can skate into. Can make some really nice passes and his vision has flashes of being great though. Just is missing some of the smart positional play that would really boost his game tenfold. Small chance he ends up a 2nd line player and a slightly larger chance at a 3rd line role. I like his game over Yager's but Yager has more translatable tools in the toolbox when it comes to offense but Ritchie is a much better passer. One thing I do really like is that although his decision making is questionable, he makes his decisions quickly. One of the few players outside of the top 5 forward group with the ability to make snap decisions. His shot can be good but I find his release is slow and needs to be a lot faster at the NHL level. Chance at long term NHL career: 15% 28)Ethan Gauthier - two-way forward with in my opinion, underrated finishing ability. Is good at getting a quick release off and has decent IQ. Not the flashiest of games but has decent vision. My biggest gripe is he has a tendency to not be as creative as his skill set should be. He's got good hands, would just like to see him use them more. His game is too quiet for his raw tools. 2nd round forward who I wouldn't mind being selected. Untapped potential. If he can find a way to elevate his offense he will be a top six forward, but that's a big IF. I don't mind his game as a 2nd rounder but a mid 1st is a bit of a stretch for me. He could live up to that potential though for sure. Chance at long term NHL career: 30% Bonus scouts I've done that I think are long shots or are suitable for later rounds: -------- Mikhail Gulyayev - phenomenal skating dman (a little bit less so transitioning from backwards to forwards if in need of a pivot) who is an offensive dman. He's small though at 5'10" which significantly hurts his stock considering how big a task that is defensively at the NHL level. His gap control is what needs work and can be a puck watcher, but with that said he has a good stick at interrupting passing lanes but that will only work so well at the NHL level based on his style of play. Decent playmaking, is best when he utilizes his speed to generate offense. Has the potential to be a top 4 dman but it'll take a long shot. High risk, good reward. Probably looking at late 2nd, early third round choice for me personally as he is such a long shot but the ceiling may be high. Worth a gamble but not in the first or early 2nd round. Chance at long term NHL career: 20% Dalibor Dvorsky - one of the more overrated players in this draft. Very slow to read and react to the game. Lots of floating. Lots of puck watching. Not a huge play driver but has talent. Needs to work drastically on his edge work and acceleration and play away from the puck. Very very raw talent. Has flashes of showing anticipation, but also long stretches if standing in poor positions behind defenders, not supporting on walls and working to get to where he needs to. Very immature defensively and would be a huge liability if he were to be placed in the NHL today. His natural talent caries him to points but would absolutely sink in the NHL as he doesn't have enough engagement or anticipation. At least 3-4 years away from reaching the NHL (if he ever does pan out) and needs to improve on way too much before I'd even consider giving him ice time in the show. Chance at long term NHL career: 20% Tanner Molendyk - late 2nd round pick due to his ability to process the game being so low, but there are a lot of tools to this defenseman but what a prospect he'd be if he panned out. One of the best skaters in the draft (top 3) and can accelerate past players very similar to McDavid however lacks the IQ on what to do after he gets past them. Has good hands, can make nice plays but his anticipation is extremely poor and is the reason why I doubt he ever makes it to the NHL and has a long-term career despite elite level skating and good hands and can play physical. Fun to watch but 10% of the time it's like watching a train wreck awaiting to happen. The other 90% he's fine or even making some nice plays, but I have no idea why this kid plays defense. Would convert him to a winger and see what you'd have there. Chance at long term NHL career: 20% Riley Heidt - this kid has offensive skill in playmaking and finishing but couldn't care less about playing defense. One of the laziest players I've ever watched in his own end and even in the offensive zone. Stands still like peak bad JT Miller and just watches the play go around him. I don't think he's strong enough offensively to warrant a first round pick but alas, somebody will take him there and pray to God he somehow learns to care. He has vision and ability, but with average skating, a lack of attention to detail he is a long shot at the NHL. I'd only consider taking him until the third round. He's great if the play comes to him but when it doesn't he is absolutely useless. Hard pass. With that said if you can surround this kid with good playmakers, he can be effective. Has good passing and vision but he is just too much of a liability in other areas to compensate. Chance at long term NHL career: 15% Matthew Wood - large kid (6'3") and is one of the youngest in the draft. Getting ranked pretty high up based on height and age alone. He's got a great shot however his skating is sub-par and will have inflated point totals due to size and strength advantage alone. More of a powerplay guy than 5 on 5 but is responsible enough defensively. His skating has a super long way to go and I don't see top end IQ necessary to be truly efficient. I have my doubts as to whether he pans out but there's no doubt he has an absolutely evident physical advantage in the game. Needs years of polish and years of skating work to come close to the NHL. This is a case of scouts overvaluing size. I'd take a swing at him in the 2nd round but he will go in the first most likely. Huge bust potential. Chance at long term NHL career: 5% Charlie Stramel - similar to Matthew Wood, not a great skater but big in size. Lacklustre IQ but has some good off the puck tendencies like getting into open space on rushes and is actually a solid screen in front of the net. Finishing is decent but lacks some skating ability and creativity to be a dominant player. Is a long shot. Third round is where I'd be okay at taking a swing at him. Another one where size over hockey talent has boosted his stock way too much in the draft. Chance at long term NHL career: 10% Beau Akey - very agile two way defenseman who is just an example of inconsistency. Sometimes his gap control is elite but then his decision making on when to commit is not making the proper reads. His agile skating, although not super fast but very smooth helps him with 1 on 1 battles immensely. I find that's where he shines but he's just inconsistent on his reads offensively and defensively. Long term project but I wouldn't be mad if somebody took him late 2nd. A 3rd round pick here would be good value though. Chance at long term NHL career: 30% Sorry if there's errors. I tried copying and pasting but I'd imagine there's gotta be an error or two in there as I had to have multiple notes to paste over. I will probably edit this post as I do further scouting (hopefully more modern shift by shifts analysis will be available soon). Feel free to discuss/critique/ask questions on my decision making! Edit #1: shuffled around a couple players that I had extended looks at today. Moved Crystall down (gut feeling he won't be able to figure the game out the way he needs to), moved Ritchie down (just want to see more engagement), moved Stenberg up (the more I watch the more I like how mature and refined his game is), moved Wallinder up (had him a bit too low closer to where I'd ideally like to take a defenseman like him in the draft, but I have to admit he's a better prospect than those I had ahead of him, so moved him up). Moved Molgaar up because I just like his game more and has added value for appropriate positioning in the draft. Edit #2: switched Smith with Leonard. The more I watch of Leonard the more turned off I can see his offense getting and vice versa, the more recent stuff I've seen of Will Smith is showing off a bit of clean up in his game. Edit #3: moved Sawchyn down. Saw more footage of him and my original impression was he had a motor for days but I saw a couple other games where he looked as if he lacked conditioning. Edit #4: switched Yager with Cristall. I can't forget that Cristall was so dynamic earlier in the year. U18's kind of swayed my opinion of him with such a poor performance but when he's on he's on. Undeniable talent when he's going. Moved him back up.

Check out Simashev. If you like Reinbacher they have a lot of the same defensive capabilities but his skating is elite and he's gigantic. A slight bit less polished but he's also got the highest potential between the two offensively.

Okay I've been doing more scouting on ASP finally. I'd be upset if we take him at 11. Has no business being ranked that high in this draft. His game is way too immature defensively. Lots of puck chasing, poor decisions, gets into position defensively but doesn't activate by tying up sticks, preventing net-front, etc. My original look at him still stands. Not sold on him being a top half first round pick. He screams late first to me. Just way too raw and needs a lotttt of development. Edit: reminds me a lot of Juolevi but worse defensively. They're different players but they make the same mistakes.

Also if somebody wants a sleeper pick look at Dmitri Simashev. Very mature game and I personally have him very closely rated to Reinbacher. On the stat sheet he looks like he has no offense but he is a fantastic distributer, skates amazingly for his size (6'4") and supports his teammates really well. Mature defensively for his age. Pretty much a surefire top 4 damn. Likely will end up a #3. Has a poor shot though which is why statistically he's not very good but he should have a lot more assists the way he moves the puck around and controls play.

I personally have him at 5 on my board and there's a clear drop off in talent and IQ after him. If he falls to 9 I'd be trading up to get him. I don't see him slipping past 8 though, even with his size.

Just started my draft research on some of these prospects. For a draft that's been touted as one of the deepest in a while, I'm not seeing anything mind-blowing at our position. This draft is way better than last year's but last year was unbearably bad... Top 5 is fantastic though. Anybody want to give me a heads up on who I should be checking out first here? I've checked out the kids playing for USA (not impressed) and a couple defensemen (not asp in depth yet). So far I'm leaning towards the dmen because at least they're a closer guarantee to top 2-4 than most of the forwards are to top 6. Either way so far not a whole lot of high ceilings outside of the top 5, in my opinion thus far. Welcoming recommendations! Thanks!

I'm a firm believer in laughing at people calling this rigged but that was awfully awfully suspect.

Apparently Vancouver needs more toxic management to land a pick. Aquillini didn't belittle his kids enough.

How did they know that Chicago was moving up before the pick was presented????

Such a weird broadcast. Chicago guaranteed now?

You just know Chicago is getting it again.

Third try! Not bad!

Demko finally committed to the tank.

Just wanna say the logo needs the white in it. The straight black may be tolerable with white bordering around numbers but the all black with no white on our thirds makes the jersey look cheap. Needs more pop.

I think he's figured something out tonight. Button hook the hell out of every offensive zone entry.

How do they not call that slash?

Slash!

Honestly that's a pretty weak presentation by McDonald's.

Game 1 of next season, most likely.

Easy Brisey Beautiful One-Timer Goal.

You could almost say... they're fading out...

Honestly though, were the pimps jealous?