Gstank29 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I'm pretty sure if we beat Winnipeg both of the time we play them and LA at least once. i'm pretty sure that almost guarentees us a playoff spot. Providing we can go .500 for the rest of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I'm pretty sure if we beat Winnipeg both of the time we play them and LA at least once. i'm pretty sure that almost guarentees us a playoff spot. Providing we can go .500 for the rest of the season I don't even think we need to beat LA because the race as it stands only has 9 teams playing for 8 spots, but a wild card... on second thought maybe playing StL or Nashville is our best bet in the first round. Seems better than Anahiem or LA. Calgary would be fun but I don't see both VCR and Cal holding off LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 17, 2015 Author Share Posted March 17, 2015 Honestly, given the difficulty of trying to guess what teams will go hot or cold, my formula generally takes the average pace for any team at any given point. For example, Anaheim is on pace to finish with 109 points, which indicates that Vancouver finishing 14-0-0 would be enough for them to clinch the pacific division. Now given their point percentage, the ducks would have to obtain an equilivant amount of points over their final 11 games (7-4-0) to get to 109 points, while vancouver is likely to finish with 99 points (8-5-1). If you look at cgy and la, they are on pace for about 96 points, so a 7-7-0 record would suffice to ensure they finish at 96 points (good for 2nd in the div) based on pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 17, 2015 Author Share Posted March 17, 2015 Canucks Real clinching scenarios: 12-2-0 to clinch a playoff spot (106 points) 13-1-0 to clinch 2nd (108 points) 14-0-0 to clinch division title , assuming Anaheim goes 7-4-0 This is assuming every other team went 1.000 down the stretch which is impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Honestly, given the difficulty of trying to guess what teams will go hot or cold, my formula generally takes the average pace for any team at any given point. For example, Anaheim is on pace to finish with 109 points, which indicates that Vancouver finishing 14-0-0 would be enough for them to clinch the pacific division. Now given their point percentage, the ducks would have to obtain an equilivant amount of points over their final 11 games (7-4-0) to get to 109 points, while vancouver is likely to finish with 99 points (8-5-1). If you look at cgy and la, they are on pace for about 96 points, so a 7-7-0 record would suffice to ensure they finish at 96 points (good for 2nd in the div) based on pace. that is pretty much why people do not talk about Magic number until late in the season. Magic number, which might better be called the "Drop Dead number" supposes nothing. It is the number that cannot be returned from. As you have noted some teams no longer have any possibility of playing in the playoffs, their Magic Number has passed. Edmonton, Buffalo and I think Arizona can win out and it does not matter, they miss the playoffs. Magic numbers start to take effect about now, as teams can now lose a certain (real) number of games and still make their goals. The Rangers will likely be the first team to amass enough points that they cannot miss the playoffs, they have the lowest magic number. Other teams like Mon, Tampa et al have a slightly higher magic number. the Canucks magic number will not be relevant until Winnipeg loses some games and there is a quantifiable number that will ensure the canucks make the playoff. At this point, as mentioned it is too close with too many variables to seriously talk of a Magic NUmber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Well, canucks need to eliminate 4 more west teams, and col/dal will likely be the next 2. Then its a mix of la, cgy min and wpg. But the elimination of the last 2 wont occur till possibly the last week of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Tuesday, March 17th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Welcome back to another exciting season of Canucks Hockey. The Magic Number Chart returns for it's 6th season, and unlike previous seasons, the format of the Chart remains the same. I re-labelled some of the Column heads to make it easier to understand each row's significance. Western Conference:Eastern Conference: Below is a Month by month update schedule, which is consistent on last season's progress.October: Bi-Weekly Updates - Chart to be uploaded with stats beginning Sunday, Oct. 12th, 2014 and every 2 weeks thereafter until the end of the monthNovember & December: Weekly Updates - Chart to be uploaded with stats every week at the conclusion of all Sunday games.January & February: Daily UpdatesMarch & April: Updates including "Record to Clinch" stats, and various elimination stats.What is the Magic Number Chart? The Magic Number Chart is essentially a standings chart that outlines the progress of each team throughout the regular season. The Magic Number itself is a formulated number that explains the Win/Loss differential required to clinch a post-season birth. Given the clinching formula is based on a divisional structure and with the implementation of a wild card, the formula will be based on the top 3 teams per division. The remaining 2 teams will be decided based on the highest point total, followed by the NHL's standard tiebreaker rules.Table Codes: Poss: Points Possible Pace: Point Pace Rem: Points Remaning to be won Magic #: Formulated Number P/M: Plus/Minus in terms of separation between teams. (Formula to be added later) Change: The Magic Number Change between update intrevals Playoff: Playoff Contention Status X/Y/Z/P: Playoff/Division/Converence/Preisdent's Trophy Contention points needed Playoff Opponent: Playoff Opponent once decided.Previous Magic Number Threads: 2013-2014:http://forum.canucks.com/topic/351695-official-2013-2014-magic-number-chart/ 2012-2013:http://forum.canucks...p-finals-chart/ 2011-2012:http://forum.canucks...-number-thread/ 2010-2011:http://forum.canucks...tor-chart-2011/ 2009-2010:http://forum.canucks...-number-thread/ you have put some good work into this thread I think I have it mostly figured out. can you explain the difference between the pink and the green, and why the Canucks are yellow? I see that the blues are eliminated. also what do the P/M , Change and Playoff columns represent? It seems the Pres and Conf lines are too high, is that because the Rangers lost yesterday? Will those change next update? the Rangers have the highest pos pts at 121 this is the most interesting thread and you have created a good table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Wednesday, March 18th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! TOR was the 4th team to be eliminated from Post-Season contention! VAN needs 6-6-1 Record to clinch a playoff spot! VAN needs 6-6-1 Record to clinch 3rd in the Pacific! VAN needs 7-6-0 Record to clinch 2nd in the Pacific! Currently, achieving the Pacific, West & President's Trophy is unfeasible as the teams in the running have a higher Pace than Vancouver's maximum achievable point total for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 you have put some good work into this thread I think I have it mostly figured out. can you explain the difference between the pink and the green, and why the Canucks are yellow? I see that the blues are eliminated. also what do the P/M , Change and Playoff columns represent? It seems the Pres and Conf lines are too high, is that because the Rangers lost yesterday? Will those change next update? the Rangers have the highest pos pts at 121 this is the most interesting thread and you have created a good table imm, Pink: Unachievable by winning out. Green: achievable. Example 1) For Magic #, any 'Pink' Column represents a team that Vancouver Cannot eliminate by winning outright. this is determined by stacking the Magic # value against the games remaining #. Example 2) For the Playoff Clinching Values, any red value represents a value that cannot be achieved by winning out. Thus, those teams need help (in the form of losses by higher teams) to clinch that spot. Canucks are yellow because they are the neutral party. There's no number to put in there as you don't stack your team against yourself. P/M stands for Plus OR Minus. Essentially, this is connected to the Magic # Values, in which a said team has +/- max possible points against Vancouver (+1). Example) ANA has a Magic # of 17, which is a value of 4 higher than Vancouver, thus they cannot be eliminated if Vancouver wins out. The P/M represents an 8 point difference, in which Vancouver would need to close to eliminate them. This is only possible in the form of losses by the Ducks. For every OT/SO loss, their P/M drops by 1. For every regulation loss, their P/M drops by 2. For Every OT/SO loss by Vancouver, their P/M increases by 1. For Every regulation loss by Vancouver, their P/M increases by 2. As such, it's only possible to eliminate a team when the P/M has a value of 0 or less. (This represents being a point above a tie, since the Chart doesn't take into account Tie-breakers). Change: The value that the Magic # fell by from the last time the Chart was updated. Playoff: The Contention status of a particular team. C: in Contention X/Y/Z/P (See blow) E: Eliminated ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ X: playoff spot Y: division spot Z: conference spot P: president's trophy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 thanks for the explanation, I'll check back when I have a bit more time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 Thursday, March 19th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! VAN Needs 6-5-1 record to clinch Playoff spot! VAN Needs 6-5-1 record to clinch 2nd in the division! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 Friday, March 20th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2SKATES1STICK Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Vancouver.html much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 That site is good for playoff clinching %'s, and I use that site all the time for various purposes. But this chart isn't to reflect clinching &'s, it's to reflect actual points needed to clinch and magic # Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 Saturday, March 21st, 2015: Magic Number Chart has been updated! 5-5-1 Record to clinch a playoff spot! 5-5-1 Record to clinch 2nd in the division! CAR is the 5th team the Canucks have eliminated this season (Magic #). SJS eliminated from division, conference & President's Trophy contention! Canucks need to eliminate 4 more teams from the West to clinch a playoff spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorvat Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Y did my thread get locked because of this? I dont like this guessing what we need to clinch. If we go 5-5-1 we could still miss the playoffs. It all depends on what the other teams do. If they go 11-0-0 or something like that, it would take more than 5-5-1. My thread never included a magic number, and is nothing like this thread IMHO. I really dont understand why it got locked over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 What was your thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorvat Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 What was your thread? current playoff race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 And btw, the record to clinch is based on point pace. The true playoff clinching record is indicated by the number of points in the X Y Z P columns. For the canucks to go 9-1-0 at this point is not realistic as 106 points will not be the cut off, but 96-97 points likely will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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