cleowin Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Friday, March 6th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 8, 2015 Author Share Posted March 8, 2015 Saturday, March 7th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! BUF is the first team the Canucks have eliminated this season! TOR has been eliminated from Division, Conference & President's Trophy contention! 9-8-0 Record needed to clinch a playoff spot! 9-7-1 Record needed to clinch 2nd in the Pacific Division! 17-0-0 Record needed to clinch the Pacific Division! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 Sunday, March 8th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! BUF is the 1st team to be eliminated from Post-season contention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 Monday, March 9th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! EDM has been eliminated from Post-Season Contention. EDM/ARI have been eliminated from the Magic Number Contention. 8-8-0 record to clinch playoff spot 15-1-0 Record needed to clinch the Pacific Division Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 Tuesday, March 10th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! 8-7-1 Record needed to clinch a playoff spot! 8-7-1 Record needed to clinch 2nd in the Division! 15-0-1 Record needed to clinch the Pacific Division! 16-0-0 Record needed to clinch the Western Conference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 12, 2015 Author Share Posted March 12, 2015 Wednesday, March 11th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! 9-6-1 Record needed to clinch 2nd in the Pacific! 14-1-1 Record needed to clinch the Pacific Division! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 13, 2015 Author Share Posted March 13, 2015 Thursday, March 12th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! ARI has been eliminated from Playoff contention! (3rd team) CAR has been eliminated from Division, Conference & President's Trophy contention! VAN needs 9-6-0 Record to clinch a playoff spot! VAN needs 9-6-0 Record to clinch 2nd in the division! VAN needs 14-0-1 Record to clinch the Pacific Division! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 14, 2015 Author Share Posted March 14, 2015 Friday, March 13th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! Canucks need 10-5-0 Record to clinch 2nd in the Pacific! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 15, 2015 Author Share Posted March 15, 2015 Saturday, March 14th, 2015: Magic Number Charts have been updated! 7-7-0 Record needed to clinch a playoff spot! 7-6-1 Record needed to clinch 3rd in the division! 8-6-0 Record needed to cinch 2nd in the division! 14-0-0 Record needed to clinch the Pacific division! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Sunday, March 15th, 2015: Magic Number charts have been updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 your math is wrong. seriously flawed. If the Canucks go 8-6 the rest of the way they do not clinch 2nd in the division, in fact they could finish 8-6 and finish tied for 3 to last with Dallas. At 8-6 they could finish behind: Calgary at 10-3 Los Ang at 10-4 SJose at 11-1-1 Colo at 12-1 Dal (tied) at 12-0 As of today, the Canucks need go 13-1 and win one of two games against the Kings and one against Calgary to clinch 2nd in the Division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 the Canucks magic #s are 26 points for 2nd in the Pacific and 25 for the playoffs. that is 26 points gained by Vancouver or lost by both Calgary and LA will guarantee Vancouver 2nd place. They can afford to lose 1 game. They need 25 points (won by Vancouver or lost by Winnipeg) to make the playoffs they need 21 points to beat out SJ etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 As for the Presidents trophy or Division title the Canucks have a negative Magic #. with the Rangers and Ducks at 95 points and the Canucks at 82, Vancouver needs NYR and Anahiem to lose 14 more points than the Canucks for Vancouver to pass them in the standings. They would also need the teams between them to lose points as well. These are somewhat simplified numbers because if the Rangers play the Ducks or Habs or Blues those teams could take over 1st overall. Then the Canucks would be chasing them instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 your math is wrong. seriously flawed. If the Canucks go 8-6 the rest of the way they do not clinch 2nd in the division, in fact they could finish 8-6 and finish tied for 3 to last with Dallas. At 8-6 they could finish behind: Calgary at 10-3 Los Ang at 10-4 SJose at 11-1-1 Colo at 12-1 Dal (tied) at 12-0 As of today, the Canucks need go 13-1 and win one of two games against the Kings and one against Calgary to clinch 2nd in the Division. Are you considering how many of those are head to head match-ups that cannot generate a win for both siders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Im using the point pace as my guidance. Generally teams Do not go 1.000 in a long stretch of games, also because there are head to head matchups, its impossible for every single one of em to end up 1.000. So no, my math isnt flawed. Point pace is more useful at this time of the season then seeing what pt total is needed for their magic number to be 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 17, 2015 Author Share Posted March 17, 2015 Monday, March 16th, 2015: Magic Number Chart has been updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Are you considering how many of those are head to head match-ups that cannot generate a win for both siders? see in post 73 where I say it is somewhat simplified? no, I am not going to spend the day calculating all the variables, including the possibility of every game being a 3pointer. I did note that Vancouver needed a split with LA and to win against Calgary, but no I did not look to see how many games LA and Calgary play. this seems like a thread that keeps the OP busy, which is cool, but he is not getting much response. So I thought I would point out why. He has since responded that he is using a different formula than the one that has been used as long as I have been watching hockey, so in effect he is trying to "reinvent the wheel". I also like to play with stats, (just not advanced stats) so I will let the OP continue to have his fun with stats. edit, it turns out I did a poor job of reading the sched, 0 games left against the Flames but 2 against Winnipeg. anything less than a split with LA and Winni will likely have a huge impact on if the Canucks make the playoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Im using the point pace as my guidance. Generally teams Do not go 1.000 in a long stretch of games, also because there are head to head matchups, its impossible for every single one of em to end up 1.000. So no, my math isnt flawed. Point pace is more useful at this time of the season then seeing what pt total is needed for their magic number to be 0. where do you get the point ace? is that from the L10 of the points race? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted March 17, 2015 Author Share Posted March 17, 2015 Total points divided by games played. While teams can and will do better than their pace, some are bound to do poorly then their pace. While the real clinching math for vancouver is 12-3-0, the actual points needed is closer to 95-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 so you are using the whole season? I tried the L10, head to head and also looked at the last week, this is what I found L10 is practically even for all teams except Winni. Min 7-3-0 Vcr 6-3-1 Cal 6-3-1 LA 5-4-1 Win 4-4-2 those teams are almost even over the last ten(min +1pt, LA-2, Win -3) so lets move to head to head LA vs VCR X2, Cal, Win VCR vs LA x2, Win x2 Cal vs Min, Win, LA Min vs Cal, LA, Win Win vs VCRx2, Min, Cal if VCR or LA win all 4 they will take 2nd in the Pacific if Win wins all 4 they make the playoffs. if those games are evenly split we move to the last week VCRs last meaningful game is Monday vs LA LA plays VCR (Mon) and Cal (Thur) Min plays Win (Mon) life gets interesting with Winni and Cal Win plays Min (Mon) and Cal (Sat) Cal plays LA (Thur) and Win (Sat) if all teams play at an even rate then Calgary holds the cards with LA on thurs and Win on the last day of the season. all the western matchup except 2vs3 in the central may hinge on those 2 games. but if I were a betting man, I'd bet LA gets hot and is home and cooled out long before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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