The BC Real Estate Discussion Thread

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, Harvey Spector said:

Apparently Trump bought the suite himself so he could totally screw up the Vancouver downtown real estate market...

 

[Harvey Spector]

 

[Harvey Spector]

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Housing Starts - November 8, 2017

 

Canadian housing starts increased 2 per cent in September to 222,771 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts also increased to 216,770  units SAAR.

New home construction in BC jumped 44 per cent on a monthly basis to 53,751 units SAAR  and more than doubled on  a year-over-year basis.  Single detached starts were down 6 per cent from one year ago while multiple unit starts nearly tripled year-over-year.

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC: 

• Total starts in the Vancouver CMA reached a 12-month high in October, rising 92 per cent from September and 186 per cent compared to September 2016. A surge in multiple unit starts to 2,532 units in October accounted for the large increase in new home construction with large condominium projects getting underway in Burnaby, Coquitlam and Surrey.

• In the Victoria CMA market, housing starts continue to record significant gains, rising 267 per cent year-over-year. Multiple unit starts continue to drive new home construction, with starts more than 5 times the levels seen in October 2016.

• New home construction in the Kelowna CMA was down 16 per cent year-over-year and down 61 per cent from a strong September of new home construction.

• Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA also fell in October, with both single and multiple units starts down more than 30 per cent year-over-year.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.

Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

[Harvey Spector]

This is not my statement but from a colleague I know who is a mortgage broker. Truth bomb...

 

So the Canadian Government introduces a "stress test" that only affects Canadians. Yes that's right if have a T4 the Federal government wants you to slow down buying in Canada.  Why?!  Because they say you can't manage debt.  And furthermore, because of that you middle class folks need to pay more taxes. Especially you lying tax cheating business owners. You are special liars. 
Let's just think about this here !

[Harvey Spector]

For immediate release

BC Home Sales Rise Despite Low Level of Supply

 

Vancouver, BC – November 14, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,677 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, an increase of 19.3 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.25 billion, up 41.6 per cent from October 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $720,129, up 18.7 per cent from October 2016.

“BC home sales trended higher in October, up 23 per cent from January on a seasonally adjusted basis," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist."A lack of supply in the resale market continues to put upward pressure on home prices in most BC regions."

Total active listings were down 5.1 per cent to 27,987 units in October compared to the same month last year, and have declined 49 per cent over the last five years. The ratio of home sales to active listings was up from 24.7 per cent in October 2016 to 31 per cent last month. The BC housing market is considered to be in relative balance when the ratio of home sales to active listings is between 12 and 20 per cent.

Year to date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 9.4 per cent to $63.8 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 10.7 per cent to 90,290 units, while the average MLS® residential price increased 1.4 per cent to $706,881.

 

BCREA is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.

 

To demonstrate the profession's commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities, BCREA supports policies that help ensure economic vitality, provide housing opportunities, preserve the environment, protect property owners and build better communities with good schools and safe neighbourhoods.

[Harvey Spector]

 

[Harvey Spector]

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Inflation - November 17, 2017

 

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), slowed to 1.4 per cent in the 12 months to October, down from 1.6 per in September. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation were largely unchanged, averaging 1.6 per cent.   In BC, provincial consumer price inflation was 2.0 per cent in the 12 months to October.

Inflation in Canada continues to trend below the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target in spite of a very strong economy and a narrowing of the output gap. Until that trend changes, we expect the Bank will hold its policy rate at 1 per cent.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.

Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

[apollo]

Man... I'm in a pretty tough spot right now... was really content with my rental but some things have happened and I need to get out ASAP. Was hoping to wait until January-February and see if new laws will cool the condo market in around 500k purchase but I'm really being forced out... 

 

I can't believe what slim pickings there are downtown for 500k... it's crazy... I'm contemplating offering on this, it's the least miserable studio I've found and pretty good floor plan. Sadly, I have a feeling it'll go for over asking at like 550K 

https://www.locatehomes.ca/bc-real-estate-listings/vancouver/mls-R2223339/904-1221-Bidwell-Street-Vancouver-V6G1B1?id=262244966

 

The market surely has to cool when all the laws kick in in the new year no?! 

 

What's everyone's advice? Should I just move into a new rental for a few months?

[Harvey Spector]

3 hours ago, apollo said:

Man... I'm in a pretty tough spot right now... was really content with my rental but some things have happened and I need to get out ASAP. Was hoping to wait until January-February and see if new laws will cool the condo market in around 500k purchase but I'm really being forced out... 

 

I can't believe what slim pickings there are downtown for 500k... it's crazy... I'm contemplating offering on this, it's the least miserable studio I've found and pretty good floor plan. Sadly, I have a feeling it'll go for over asking at like 550K 

https://www.locatehomes.ca/bc-real-estate-listings/vancouver/mls-R2223339/904-1221-Bidwell-Street-Vancouver-V6G1B1?id=262244966

 

The market surely has to cool when all the laws kick in in the new year no?! 

 

What's everyone's advice? Should I just move into a new rental for a few months?

They took that property off the market today. I checked and I actually know the owner. If you’re really interested PM me and I can call him. He is using a different realtor on the listing. The owner used to be a realtor. 

 

As for the market I just sold a 2 bedroom condo in New West tonight for $550k.  Multiple offers. What’s incredible is that I sold a similar condo in the same building in March for $458k. So as you can see that is almost a $100k difference. I also sold a condo at Telus Garden last week for $1.22M. It’s only 885sf so it went for almost $1400 per foot. Rental income on that if it’s furnished is $5k per month. 

 

I don’t think the condo market is going to slow down anytime soon. I look at the pre-sales and whatever comes up gets sold very quickly. I don’t think the new mortgage rules are going to slow anything down at least for the foreseeable future. A year from now may be a different story, but for the next few months and through next Spring I think the market is going to be strong. 

 

If you you want to spend $500k I recommend a one bedroom in New West or a two bedroom in Port Coquitlam. PoCo is booming right now. There is still a lot of room for growth in that area as well as New West. 

Edited November 22, 2017 by Harvey Spector

[Silky mitts]

Thinking of buying a house in hope with my cousin and then flipping it. Do you guys see hope as a potential money maker ?

[Harvey Spector]

16 minutes ago, Silky mitts said:

Thinking of buying a house in hope with my cousin and then flipping it. Do you guys see hope as a potential money maker ?

Yes Chilliwack is booming like hell and Hope is only around 30-35 minutes away, so I would say that's the next place to get going.  

[Harvey Spector]

For immediate release

Housing Market Facing Headwinds Despite Strong Economy  
BCREA 2017 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast

 

Vancouver, BC – November 28, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 10.4 per cent to 91,700 units in 2018, after an expected 8.8 per cent decrease this year. A record 112,209 unit sales were recorded in 2016. The ten-year average for MLS® residential sales in BC is 84,700 units. Strong economic and demographic fundamentals are supporting elevated housing demand. However, a number of factors are expected to temper home sales in the province next year.

 

“Housing demand across the province will face increasing headwinds in 2018," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist."A rising interest rate environment combined with more stringent mortgage stress tests will reduce household purchasing power and erode housing affordability." The 5-year qualifying rate is forecast to rise 20 basis points to 5.15 per cent by Q4 2018, and the new qualification rules for conventional mortgages will erode purchasing power by up to 20 per cent. "Given the rapid rise in home prices over the past few years, the effect of these factors will likely be magnified."

 

The supply of homes for sale is now trending at or near decade lows in most BC regions. The imbalance between supply and demand has been largely responsible for rapidly rising home prices. The combination of weakening consumer demand and a surge in new home completions next year is expected to induce more balanced market conditions, producing less upward pressure on home prices. The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 3.1 per cent to $712,300 this year, and a further 4.6 per cent to $745,300 in 2018.

 

BCREA is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.

[Harvey Spector]

Vancouver Trump Tower wins seven global awards

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

 

Trump International Hotel & Tower Vancouver has been recognized with seven awards for its outstanding design and construction at the International Property Awards, which celebrate excellence from different regions around the world.

 

Designed by acclaimed Canadian architect Arthur Erickson, the twisting design of the tower and its timeless elegance convinced 80 judges from around the world to cast their vote for this iconic architectural structure for the Americas Property Awards.

 

The seven awards for developer Holborn & TA Global were in the following categories:

• Development Marketing Canada
• Best Hotel Architecture Canada (5-star winner)
• Best Hotel Interior Canada (5-star winner)
• Best Residential High-rise Architecture Canada (5-star winner)
• Mixed-use Development Canada
• Best New Hotel Construction & Design Canada (5-star winner)
• Residential High-rise Development Canada

 

The International Property Awards are one of the most prestigious industry awards in the global real estate industry, with a nearly 30-year history. Applicants from 160 countries participate each year in the hope of having their projects recognized.

 

“My vision is to build Trump Vancouver as a new symbol for Vancouver that echoes the city as an international gateway city. I am so thrilled this has been implemented perfectly and industry experts from all around the world have recognized the beauty of this building,” said Joo Kim Tiah, principal of Holborn.

 

Construction started in 2012 and the tower was completed in February 2017. The interior of the hotel was crafted by a world-class, preeminent design team, including Joyce Wang Studio from Hong Kong, who designed the fine-dining Chinese restaurant Mott32; Francois Frossard Design from Miami for Drai’s Vancouver; Burdifilek from Toronto for Trump Champagne Bar, and BOX Interior Design & MCM Interior for Trump Hotel & Residences.

 

In addition, Holborn and TA were selected as the 5-star winner for four categories to represent Canada and compete against other properties around the world at the Grand Finals of the International Property Awards hosted on December 4th in London, England. The four categories are Best New Hotel Construction & Design Canada, Best Hotel Architecture Canada, Best Hotel Interior Canada and Best Residential High-rise Architecture Canada.

 

https://www.reminetwork.com/articles/vancouver-trump-tower-wins-seven-global-awards/

[Harvey Spector]

Video feature: What's happening in real estate

 

[Harvey Spector]

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian GDP Growth (Q3'2017) and Canadian Employment - December 1, 2017

 

The Canadian economy grew 1.7 per cent in the third quarter, a significant deceleration from the over 4 per cent growth recorded in the previous quarter. Growth was led by gains in household spending while exports declined and business investment slowed. Despite the second half slowdown, the Canadian economy is still on track to grow more than 3 per cent this year, which would make it the envy of most advanced economies around the world.

While the economy slowed in the third quarter, employment in November surged. Canadian employment increased by 80,000 jobs while the the national unemployment rate fell 0.4 points to 5.9 per cent, the lowest rate since February 2008. In the twelve months to November, employment in Canada is up 2.1 per cent, or 390,000 jobs. In BC, a string of four straight months of declining job growth was broken as the province added 18,000 new jobs in November.   Over the past twelve months, the level of employment in BC is up 3.8 per cent.  The provincial unemployment rate ticked 0.1 points lower to 4.8 per cent. 
 

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.

Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

[Harvey Spector]

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate, but when will rates rise in 2018?

 

The Bank of Canada announced today that it would hold its target for the overnight rate at one per cent. But will there be further rate increases next year?

 

The decision comes after the bank hiked the overnight rate, which influences the mortgage market, by 25 basis points in both July and September. Prior to these hikes, the overnight rate sat a historically low level of 0.5 per cent.

 

“Recent Canadian data are in line with October’s outlook, which was for growth to moderate while remaining above potential in the second half of 2017,” writes the Bank of Canada, in a statement.

 

“Employment growth has been very strong and wages have shown some improvement, supporting robust consumer spending in the third quarter,” the bank adds.

 

In line with the bank’s Monetary Policy Report, published in October, the bank kept its overnight rate steady as the current stance of monetary policy remains appropriate.

The bank notes that business investment continued to contribute to growth, and public infrastructure spending is becoming more evident in the bank’s data.

 

In addition, the housing sector has continued to moderate and inflation has been slightly higher than expected, and will continue to be driven by temporary factors, including gas prices.

 

Many economists had predicted the overnight rate would remain unchanged, including BMO’s chief economist Douglas Porter.

 

According to the economist, the bank’s announcement was “a bit more dovish than expected,” suggesting it will be cautious on further rate hikes.

Porter says that a rate hike in January is unlikely, but the next increase will be in March  2018.

 

“The BoC appears very patient at this juncture, with little appetite to move in January despite the near-record low jobless rate. They will be minding NAFTA progress (or otherwise), any early impacts from the OSFI rule change at the start of 2018, and how Q4 growth, wages and prices shape up,” writes Porter in a statement.

 

TD Senior Economist Brian DePratto agrees that another rate hike could arrive in the near-future.

 

“With economic growth appearing likely to exceed the Bank’s 2.5% expectation for the fourth quarter of this year, things continue to point to a hike sooner rather than later,” writes DePratto.

 

“However, as today’s statement shows, nothing is a done deal until the day of the decision,” he adds.

 

The bank’s next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 17, 2018.

 

http://news.buzzbuzzhome.com/2017/12/bank-canada-maintains-rate-rise-2018.html

[Harvey Spector]

 

Metro Vancouver continues to experience above-average demand and below-average supply

Metro Vancouver* saw modest home listing changes and steady demand in November.

 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,795 in November 2017, a 26.2 per cent increase from the 2,214 sales recorded in November 2016, and a 7.5 per cent decrease compared to October 2017 when 3,022 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 17 per cent above the 10-year November sales average.

 

“We’re seeing steady demand in today’s market. Home buyer activity is operating above our long-term averages, particularly in our townhome and condominium markets,” Jill Oudil, REBGV president said.

 

There were 4,109 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in November 2017. This represents a 30.6 per cent increase compared to the 3,147 homes listed in November 2016 and a 9.5 per cent decrease compared to October 2017 when 4,539 homes were listed.

 

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,747, a 4.3 per cent increase compared to November 2016 (8,385) and a 4.3 per cent decrease compared to October 2017 (9,137).

 

“While we’re seeing more listings enter the market today than we saw at this time last year, we have a long way to go before our home listing inventory rises back to more historically typical levels,” Oudil said.

 

The sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2017 is 32 per cent, which is up three per cent since September 2017. By property type, the ratio is 15.9 per cent for detached homes (up one per cent since September 2017), 36.4 per cent for townhomes (down six per cent since September 2017), and 67.8 per cent for condominiums (up seven per cent since September 2017).

 

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

 

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,046,900. This represents a 14 per cent increase over November 2016 and a 0.4 per cent increase compared to October 2017.

 

Sales of detached properties in November 2017 reached 841, a 31.8 per cent increase from the 638 detached sales recorded in November 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,608,000. This represents a 6.1 per cent increase from November 2016 and a 0.1 per cent decrease compared to October 2017.

 

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,508 in November 2017, a 25.7 per cent increase compared to the 1,200 sales in November 2016. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $648,200. This represents a 23.9 per cent increase from November 2016 and a one per cent increase compared to October 2017.

 

Attached property sales in November 2017 totalled 446, an 18.6 per cent increase compared to the 376 sales in November 2016. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $805,200. This represents a 17.9 per cent increase from November 2016 and a 0.3 per cent increase compared to October 2017.

Edited December 6, 2017 by Harvey Spector

[Harvey Spector]

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - December 6, 2017

 

The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy is evolving as expected, with growth slowing in the second half of the year.   On inflation, the Bank expects the continued absorption of economic slack to push core inflation higher in subsequent months.  Importantly, the Bank concluded its statement by noting that rate increases will be required over time, though it will proceed with caution as it assesses the economy’s sensitivity to higher rates.

Although the Bank of Canada has a bias toward raising rates over the next 12 months, it is currently sidelined by low inflation as well as concerns over how higher interest rates will interact with elevated household debt levels.  We anticipate the Bank will remain on hold in early 2018 as it assesses the impact of the forthcoming mortgage stress test, but will look to raise rates one or two times in the second half of next year.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.

Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

[Harvey Spector]

 

[Harvey Spector]

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Housing Starts - December 8, 2017

 

Canadian housing starts surged in November, rising 13 per cent from October to 252,184 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts jumped to 226,270 units SAAR, the highest its been in ten years.

The increase in new home construction was concentrated outside of BC, which saw starts decline 16 per cent to a still very strong 45,000 units SAAR in November on a monthly basis. Total starts in BC were up about 4 per cent year-over-year. Single detached starts were up 23 per cent on a monthly basis and 31 per cent compared to November 2016 while multiple starts were down 24 per cent month-over-month and fell 6 per cent year-over-year.

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC: 

• Total starts in the Vancouver CMA declined from a 12-month high in October, falling 8 per cent. The market is likely close to full-capacity with close to 40,000 units under construction across the metro-Vancouver area.

• In the Victoria CMA, housing starts fell 17 per cent year-over-year and were down 71 per cent on a monthly basis after a wave of new multiple units in October.

• New home construction in the Kelowna CMA were up 32 per cent from October and increased 62 per cent year-over-year due to jump in multiple unit starts.

• Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA jumped from just 20 total starts in November 2016 to 169 in November 2017.  On a monthly basis, starts were 45 per cent higher compared to October due primarily to an increase in single-family starts.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.

Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.