(Article) 2023-24 Fantasy Hockey: 7 NHL players who will fall short of their projections

[RWJC]

2023-24 Fantasy Hockey: 7 NHL players who will fall short of their projections

These players are coming into the NHL season with plenty of hype, but could be worth avoiding.

Nate Groot Nibbelink

Thu, September 14, 2023 at 1:39 PM PDT

 

If you’re anything like me, at some point you’ve probably scrolled through your draft room with your pick coming up, looking for gaudy numbers in the Yahoo projected stats.

 

Most may pass the sniff test, but just how closely should we trust the projected numbers we see? I took a deep dive on the Yahoo player projections and found a few players I’m significantly more bearish on through my work on the Apples & Ginos projections.

 

You may agree or disagree with my opinion, but at the very least, every fantasy manager owes it to themselves to critically evaluate any projection they see and think through the potential ways a given player could outperform or underperform that projection.

7. Andrei Kuzmenko, Vancouver Canucks

Andrei Kuzmenko

LW - VAN - #96

2022 - 2023 SEASON

81

GP

39

G

35

A

9

+/-

143

S

I’ve got to be honest, I don’t see any possibility that Kuzmenko reaches his 45-goal, 81-point projection on Yahoo. Let me put it this way: Kuzmenko’s 27.3% shooting percentage last season was the highest by a full-time player in over a decade, resulting in 39 goals.

Yahoo’s current projections have him shooting 29%, which is hard to fathom as a reasonable outcome. For reference, Kuzmenko shot 14.7% across 315 KHL games before making his NHL debut last season. It's not impossible Kuzmenko couldn’t generate more shots on goal in his second NHL season, but even if he does, the math simply does not work out for me.

6. Tim Stützle, Ottawa Senators

Tim Stutzle

LW - OTT - #18

2022 - 2023 SEASON

78

GP

39

G

51

A

-3

+/-

228

S

Stützle had a massive breakout in 2022-23, scoring 39 goals and 90 points in 78 games while skating an impressive 21:16 average time on ice. The former third overall selection was forced into a massive role for the Senators due to an extreme lack of center depth caused by injury — and he thrived.

This season, the Senators should have top line center Josh Norris back and healthy, making it hard to imagine that Stützle will be asked to shoulder such a heavy load again, even after his laudable performance.

That line of thinking, combined with a higher-than-expected 17.1% shooting percentage, leads me to believe that Stützle is more likely to take a step back from last season’s numbers and underperform his current 42-goal, 93-point Yahoo projection.

5. Alex Killorn, Anaheim Ducks

Alex Killorn

LW - ANA - #17

2022 - 2023 SEASON

82

GP

27

G

37

A

18

+/-

143

S

Killorn signed a big four-year, $25 million dollar deal with the Anaheim Ducks this offseason, eschewing his tertiary role in Tampa Bay's crowded lineup to become a prominent player on a young and building Ducks squad.

I think Killorn was probably in his most ideal deployment in Tampa last season, seeing a lot of power play time alongside superstars like Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos. While I like Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry just fine, neither are at the level Kucherov and company have exhibited for many years now.

I’ve got Killorn regressing to a 22-goal, 48-point season, while his Yahoo projection has him maintaining last season’s 64-point pace. I just don’t see a scenario where the 33-year-old can be as efficient in Anaheim as he was in Tampa Bay given the stark drop off in his linemate's talent.

4. Moritz Seider, Detroit Red Wings

Seider is a guy the fantasy community would love to be a star, especially after his massive rookie season breakout in 2021-22 that saw him post 50 points. The Red Wings, however, have brought in a lot of competent defensemen this offseason — including Shayne Gostisbehere, who profiles as a power play specialist.

Detroit’s power play is nothing to write home about at the best of times, and if Seider is going to be blocked from top special teams minutes by Gostisbehere (not to mention late acquisition Jeff Petry), his offensive ceiling will be heavily handicapped.

J. Petry

DET - D

 

S. Gostisbehere

DET - D

2022 - 2023 SEASON

61

GP

75

5

G

13

26

A

28

2

+/-

-5

113

S

155

I have Seider projected for just five goals and 35 points compared to his Yahoo projection at seven goals and 52 points. Seider just may not be deployed heavily optimally enough to be a valuable piece for fantasy this season.

3. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning

Victor Hedman

D - TB - #77

2022 - 2023 SEASON

76

GP

9

G

40

A

10

+/-

185

S

Hedman has been a fantasy star for so long now that it’s hard to envision him as anything but a locked-in top-five defenseman for fantasy.

 

Jon Cooper's use of Mikhail Sergachev on the top power play over Hedman for most of last season, however, might mean it's time to accept that the 85-point version of Hedman in 2021-22 may be the high water mark for his career. As such, last year’s 49-point output may be more indicative of his future production as the two-time Cup champ enters the back half of his NHL career.

I’m not saying that Hedman isn’t capable of the 11-goal, 65-point projection Yahoo has for him currently; I’m simply saying that there was a clear shift by the coaching staff away from using Hedman on the top power play, and without those minutes, there’s almost no way for a defenseman (no matter how good) to reach a 60+ point ceiling.

2. David Perron, Detroit Red Wings

David Perron

LW - DET - #57

2022 - 2023 SEASON

82

GP

24

G

32

A

-7

+/-

195

S

Perron looked completely broken for the majority of the 2022-23 season before ending the campaign on a crazy bender that helped him finish with a respectable 24 goals and 56 points in 82 games.

Detroit has added Alex DeBrincat to the mix, meaning it's likely the diminutive sniper immediately supplants Perron from his customary half-wall role on the power play. If that comes to pass, it’s going to be very difficult for Perron to match the 24 power play points his Yahoo projections currently list him for, and even more difficult to reach his overall projection of 25 goals and 60 points.

Perron is now 35 years old, and while I’m not ruling out the possibility that there’s more in the tank here, I’m just not willing to take that risk when the team's decisions around him suggest they’re ready to move on.

1. Dawson Mercer, New Jersey Devils

Dawson Mercer

C - NJ - #91

2022 - 2023 SEASON

82

GP

27

G

29

A

22

+/-

161

S

Let’s be clear, I really like Mercer as a player. He’s a clear net positive-play driver for the Devils, one that any team would jump at the chance to add to their own roster. But the fact is that the Devils now have an absolute embarrassment of top six talent with the additions of Timo Meier and Tyler Toffoli.

 

A full season for Timo Meier with the Devils, plus the addition of Tyler Toffoli, throws a wrench into Dawson Mercer's potential fantasy ceiling. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)More

Mercer should still see the majority of his minutes come in a top-six role, but I don’t see a path to top power play minutes barring multiple injuries to other players.

Without that, it's tough seeing Mercer reach the 30-goal, 60-point projection Yahoo currently has for him. Perhaps Lindy Ruff will get creative by double-shifting Mercer throughout the lineup, helping him get there on the basis of sheer volume, but that feels like a bet on an outlier situation and one I’m not willing to make.

 

[Coconuts]

Wouldn't be surprised if Kuzmenko regressed a bit, but that isn't to say he still isn't capable of top six offense, or that he doesn't produce at that clip 

 

If he puts up 20-30 goals and 60ish points that's good value

[-AJ-]

37 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Wouldn't be surprised if Kuzmenko regressed a bit, but that isn't to say he still isn't capable of top six offense, or that he doesn't produce at that clip 

 

If he puts up 20-30 goals and 60ish points that's good value

Agreed. He'll almost certainly score fewer goals, but I expect him to shoot more to make some of that up. A 30-goal projection isn't out of line. If Petey scores more, he could also get more assists and push for 70 points.

[Diamonds]

6 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Wouldn't be surprised if Kuzmenko regressed a bit, but that isn't to say he still isn't capable of top six offense, or that he doesn't produce at that clip 

 

If he puts up 20-30 goals and 60ish points that's good value

I'm with you. While tip-ins will help bump a shooting percentage I'm quite positive there were will be a decrease in his shooting percentage this season as teams start to play him tighter. It's not impossible he could hit 45 goals this season, but I will be quite happy if he can get 30 goals and roughly 60 points.

[Coconuts]

53 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

Agreed. He'll almost certainly score fewer goals, but I expect him to shoot more to make some of that up. A 30-goal projection isn't out of line. If Petey scores more, he could also get more assists and push for 70 points.

Yeah, he'll have to shoot more, his shooting percentage just isn't sustainable 

 

And yeah, if Petey shoots more It'd help bolster his assists 

 

52 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

I'm with you. While tip-ins will help bump a shooting percentage I'm quite positive there were will be a decrease in his shooting percentage this season as teams start to play him tighter. It's not impossible he could hit 45 goals this season, but I will be quite happy if he can get 30 goals and roughly 60 points.

That would be good value for what he's paid, could see both him and Pettersson producing less because of an overall team commitment to defense 

[Citizen Erased]

Good points were made about Kuzmenko, but you should also consider how out of shape he was last season and how much better he is now. I also expect him to shoot the puck more and take Bo’s spot on the PP with the tip in goals. 

[MeanSeanBean]

For Kuzmenko to not regress in goals, he is going to need to bump his shots on net up from around 140- to well over 200. likely 220-250 to account for his decreasing in shooting percent. It's possible, but that is a very tall task.