SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

Wouldn’t that be nice! But no, I’m a white male of a certain age. My whole life I’ve been socialized to believe that anything I have to say is important and deserves to he heard, and everything I think, is correct. Biases and blind spots abound, unfortunately. I do my best to stay aware of this, and change things up where I can. I’d like to think I’ve been fairly successful at it. But again, I’m a white male of a certain age, so while I may think I’m killing it, it’s more likely I’m failing miserably, but just can’t see it. Which is also the reason why I expect tonnes of logical errors to be made by NHL GMs and front offices. Most “hockey men” are also white males of a certain age, and enjoy privilege that makes them unlikely to examine and question their own beliefs and manners of reasoning, and thereby become subject to many biases and blind spots. It’s also much easier to see these issues in other people, rather than in oneself. Or, maybe it’s just easier to believe that I’m smarter/better than them (or anyone else), because I am a white male of a certain age, so that’s what I’ve been told for much of my life, especially through my formative years.

You were very kind to add the “perhaps.”

I think they’ll get assets if they retain salary, but I agree they have to add sweeteners and/or take back cap dumps, if they hope to move the full weight of that contract, especially in the current flat cap system. I also think that, if a trade happens, it probably won’t exactly be something I’d agree with (and it will favour AZ more than I’d like to see). Just based on the way the market works in the NHL, with various inefficiencies and biases/blind spots built in, it’ll probably be something not in line with the way I view player values, when it comes to someone like OEL. Maybe I’m cynical, but I just have great faith in NHL GMs finding ways to justify making bad/risky decisions, especially on the financial side of their player acquisitions.

I imagine there’s a fair amount of pressure on both sides (team and player) to get something done. It’s never a good situation when a core player is being shopped openly, especially if it drags out too long. Luckily, for Arizona, they’re not exactly a hockey hotbed market. I can only imagine how this type of thing would play out in the media in Vancouver, Toronto, or Montreal. But even though they get to avoid the fishbowl, it’s still a huge distraction for the team, will affect relationships, and while OEL is a professional, you just can’t expect a player to be 100% committed to a team that’s clearly trying to move him. There’s also the fact that next season is the first of three contract years where the actual salary is $10.5 million on that $8.25 AAV. So they might be motivated to get something done now, before they’re on the hook for the richest years of that contract. Plus, the Coyotes currently have a bottom tier farm/prospects pool, recently have lost picks (forfeitures, plus renouncing rights on that bully kid), and traded away some of their prospects/youth. They could really use a fresh infusion of picks/prospects right now, and an OEL trade should be able to return some decent future assets. But, yeah, I can’t imagine OEL wants to see another year play out of this kind of circus, so he’s probably pushing for something to get done. Then again, he’s been in Arizona for some time, so he’s probably used to being in the circus (just one that nobody watches). Spending 11 years in the desert probably makes a person very patient, assuming they don’t lose their mind first.

I kinda figure that I’ve added enough words to this thread detailing the reasons for caution, when it comes of OEL, his contract, and age curves. So here’s a post looking at things from the other side. To save me some time, I’ll link an article here that probably makes the best case you’ll see for OEL being worth his contract and a worthwhile trade target, even at the full weight of his deal: https://azcoyotesinsider.substack.com/p/gauging-league-perception-of-ekman I think it’s fair to suggest that some of OEL’s issues since 2017 could be the result of factors such as (a) the emotional toll of his mother’s death, (b) team changes and the loss of key mentors such as Shane Doan and Dave Tippett, (c) a bad fit with current head coach Rick Tocchet, (d) just the extra BS that comes from playing in Arizona (like late payments on bonuses), and (e) playing for a team that’s made it known that they are looking to trade him. That’s a fair amount of adversity and stress over the last few seasons. It’s possible that all the talent is still there, when it comes to OEL, but that his heart just isn’t in it, and he’s underperformed in Arizona as a result. It’s possible that a change of scenery would have a dramatic effect on him, and he’d return to something close to the player he was at his peak. And let’s not forgot that pre-2017 OEL was one hell of a player: That’s the chart of a defenseman who’s probably worth $8.25M. And, if you read some of those quotes (from scouts, players, and other NHL staff), in the linked article, there are definitely people in the biz who think that OEL still has what it takes to a the type of player that produces elite level results. On the other hand, a lot of the quotes in that article are just riddled with survivorship bias (in their ignoring/rejecting of the data and focusing only on the rare exceptions), which isn’t altogether surprising. Survivorship bias is a big reason why teams continue to get burned by handing out bad contracts to aging players, and why so many of the major UFA signings/extensions end up being contracts that prove to be “negative value” over their full term. The biases and logical errors of managers and pro scouts are a major component in this, and huge reason why teams struggle under the cap system. Even still, I do have some time for comments like this: “He isn’t as effective as he’s capable of being right now, and yet in the right situation, I’d put him in with any defenseman in the league because his skillset is incredible. He seems to fit better when he is not the face of the defense or the face of the team. I think it wouldn’t hurt him to go to another situation and then, whoever gets him is going to see how impressive he is.” I agree that the skillset is enticing with OEL, and it’s possible that the struggles we’re seeing reflected in the underlying data are due to situational issues, and that he could be as good as any defenseman in the league, under the right conditions, and playing for the right team. However, I still think that there are enough “buyer beware” factors in place, right now, that any OEL trade needs to be at a discount, as far as the assets he commands, and include salary retention, if only because of the new flat cap reality. At the time OEL was extended, it would have been reasonable to expect the salary cap to be hitting $90M and even $100M by the end of the contract. $8.25M AAV was a lot more palatable in that environment. And he was only a year removed from about a three year period where he was unquestionably elite as an NHL defenseman. Honestly, if I’m a manager in this league, I might have offered him that deal myself (although probably not the full 8 year term). But it wasn’t necessarily a bad contract on July 1st, 2018, or a bad bet to make, with the information available at that time. Since then, there’s been the double whammy of OEL’s performance decline, coupled with the flat cap, and that’s a rough combination. Arizona needs to be the team that eats that loss, and not the team that takes the contract off their hands. But if Ekman-Larsson could be acquired for a reasonable price, and with salary retention, it’s definitely a move that would make the Canucks better, at least right now. Simply swapping OEL into the lineup, in place of Edler, would be a clear upgrade (assuming it worked under the cap). I’d still have some concerns about the value over the full six remaining years, but some of that could be mitigated with salary retention. There’s also the fact that basically no high ticket, long term, UFA contract ever ends up being a win on value. It’s kind of the cost of doing business under the current market system. If you want “proven” high end players, in that 27+ age group, you have to overpay for them. And this team could certainly do a lot worse, when it comes to those types of acquisitions, than OEL at something like $6M/~25% retained by Arizona (would be no worse than the Myers deal, anyway ). I suppose it comes down to how much you believe OEL would improve, with a change of scenery, and how much of his current struggles can be explained by factors that would mostly be removed from the equation, if he were traded to another team. Is he declining simply due to the predictable effects of age curves or due to other reasons related to his team, usage, coach, and some recent off-ice stressors? Hard to say, really, but whatever the reasons, I don’t think you can explain away the risks, so I think it’s still a potential trade where the team needs to proceed with caution, and only pull the trigger if major concessions are secured from the Arizona side.

I may try to come back and post a bit on this with some numbers. Unfortunately (or fortunately), I’m just getting ready to head out for a Father’s Day BBQ with the family, so don’t have the time right now. But I think there are probably a dozen or more recent articles that get into many of the reasons for caution around OEL, and discuss both the long term, and short term, value issues with his contract. But for a quick perusal (as far as where he’s dropping off), I’d check out some of his 5v5 stats (Natural Stat Trick is a good free site) and filter for “relative” (so his rates are compared within his own team) and look at him versus other Arizona D’s. It’s an imperfect tool, but it does allow you to separate out a bit of the “bad team” noise, and get an idea of how he’s been performing within his own team. You’ll probably see a lot of drop off since around 2017-18, on a variety of metrics, but especially stuff like xGF% or xGA (particularly if you pay less attention to the counts/rates than to where he ranks relative to his teammates). Or find an article that charts his GAR, WAR, SPAR, etc (these are overall value measures compared to “replacement” level players) and relates those numbers to what he used to provide a few years back, versus what he’s managed lately. And also looking at what kind of overall stats value/contributions you’d generally expect/want to get out of an $8.25M AAV defenseman, to justify that level of salary commitment. The general takeaway is that, with this current contract, the decline in performance, and what the age curves likely predict for the future, OEL has fairly quickly gone from a Norris caliber player just a handful of season ago and one of the more promising and underrated young Dmen in the league, to today being quite possibly one of the top-15 or top-20 “worst contracts” in the entire NHL.

Has anyone said that? When we talk about age curves, it’s more about which years represent the average peak/plateau in performance, over the life of a career, when to expect decline, and how steep that decline will be, on average, year after year. Nobody is saying a player is “done” at 30. Just that he’s not likely to get any better (in terms of overall performance) at that age. On average, we see players peak between age 22-25, a slight drop off through their twenties, and then more steep decline after age 30. Of course, this is the average, and not a strict model that applies to every player, or graphs out perfectly over every career. There are exceptions, of course. But we should be careful about making too much of those exceptions, as that kind of selection bias generally leads to some very poor conclusions and misreading/rejection of the overall data. Also, when it does come to the exceptions, as in the guys who maintain high performance levels over longer careers, and don’t really drop off until they’re into their 30’s, we need to remember that (a) these are very rare players and (b) that group of players still has an age curve, just delayed, and less precipitous, but does eventually come into play. In most cases, these players plateau from ages 22/23 through to around 29/30, then start a slight decline through their early thirties, and a steep one around age 35 or so. They are usually elite players and they are kind of a special group to themselves. At this point in time, OEL does not look like one of those special players. His age curve looks more typical/average, which means he’s already a few years into his decline, and that career modelling predicts that drop off will accelerate through his 30s. OEL is unlikely to ever be an elite level NHL defenceman again, as his career progresses, despite being paid like one for the next six years. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad player, just bad value at $8.25M x 6 years. It’s not impossible that he beats the odds. There are always exceptions. They are just rare, and OEL certainly doesn’t model out like one of the players who tend to fall in that exception category, at least based on the data we have available, and the trend lines going back the last few seasons for his career. Another unfavourable aspect, when it comes to OEL, is that when you split age curves into categories like offensive versus defensive performance, it’s the offensive stats that tend to decline quicker, while many players maintain their defensive value well past age 30. So if OEL’s overall value was larger based on his defensive performance, you might predict he’d maintain a fair portion of his overall value for several more years, as his offensive performance declined, but his defensive performance remained strong. Unfortunately, there’s a good amount to be concerned with, when you dig into OEL’s underlying numbers on the defensive side, and while I’m the first to admit that analytics have clear limitations in both measuring and predicting defensive performance, there’s really not a lot in OEL’s defensive metrics to justify a lot of optimism right now, but there is a fair amount in there to suggest caution, especially when projecting his performance and value over the next six seasons. None of this means that OEL is a bad player, or that his career will be over at 30. That should not be the takeaway. What some of us see in the data is that (a) OEL isn’t currently performing at the level of a $8.25M player (and he arguably hasn’t done so for a few seasons now), (b) his underlying numbers, and even his overall profile, suggest he’s already declining, and (c) he’s at an age where the average NHL player really starts to noticeably decline in both individual performance and the overall (on-ice) value they can bring to their team. That’s it, really. (And this post is coming from a guy who’s pushing 50. So, while I appreciate being considered as young at heart as a 14-year-old, I’m certainly not someone coming from the perspective that 30 is anything close to old, or that life stops there, either for elite athletes, or the rest of us. )

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vancouverisawesome.com/amp/vancouver-news/special-weather-statement-issued-for-metro-vancouver-due-to-heat-wave-3891056 "After a relatively cool start to the weekend, temperatures will be on the rise again today. The current guidance indicates that the day time temperatures will peak in the low-thirties through Monday at locations away from the immediate coast," states Environment Canada. Right now they're predicting a high of 24 C across Vancouver, but that will vary from location to location. Further inland, places like Abbotsford are expected to hit 33 C. While it's expected to bring the heat, it won't last long. "The ridge associated with this warm spell will start shifting inland on Tuesday, ushering the hot air into the Interior," states the federal agency. Forget “hot girl summer” or “hot boy summer.” With a heat wave starting on Father’s Day, 2021 is clearly going to be the year of “hot Dad summer.”

I don’t think I’d touch that OEL contract unless it’s at something like 50% retained salary, personally. Dumping one year of Loui Eriksson isn’t worth taking on six years of OEL at $8.25M. The odds are just so low that he’ll ever again be worth that kind of money. I do think he might rebound some, with a change of scenery, but not enough to ever be an $8.25M player. He’ll be 30 next season, and age curves are rarely kind to players on the wrong side of 30. He’s already seen three straight years of decline, at least by the fancy stats models, and career-wise hasn’t really been worth >$8M in any seasons other than 2015-16 and 2017-18. Analytics aren’t everything, but when they are as bad as OEL’s, you have to at least consider them. And those OEL fancy stats give me the heebie-jeebies. I think bad analytics aside, with OEL, you’re maybe looking at a $6M player right now, at best, based on his current level of play, and some diminishing returns by the “eye test” and more conventional “counting” stats. And still a player who is aging into his 30s. I could probably justify around $6M for him, right now, but I’d still have serious concerns about that six years remaining term (even at $6M versus $8.25). That’s why I’m at 50% retained salary (so $4.125M x 6 years). I think over six years, that might even still be negative value by the end of the contract, but it would most likely be pretty good value for a fair chunk of that term. Analytics would still say it’s negative value (as OEL is below replacement by some metrics, like WAR/GAR/SPAR, and GSVA values him at around $3M AAV for this remaining 6 years), but I think he’s a good enough bet to outperform his analytics (both current and 2-3 year trend), with a change of scenery, and be a positive asset (with 50% retained salary), at least for most of those remaining six years. And, of course, OEL does have a chance to truly rebound in a new situation, and if we’re talking the Canucks, I think the combination of new systems, teammates, and coaches (especially noted “defenceman whisperer” Brad Shaw), could really help him find his game again. However, just based on his current age, and the performance decline we’ve already seen, I highly doubt he’s ever getting back to his 2015-16 season, Norris candidate levels, or any level of play that would make $8.25M per season (and for six years) look like money well spent. Dumping one year of Eriksson just isn’t enough of a sweetener. Arizona needs to be willing to eat a big chunk of that $8.25M AAV contract, before I’d even consider making a trade for OEL, especially given the six years of remaining term.

Tonight was pizza delivery. DoorDash sent us a 50% off coupon, so figured “why not?” Put in the order, and keep getting notifications that they’re busy, delivery is delayed. Fine, it’s Saturday night, and hockey’s on. Makes sense they’re busy. Then, notifications start saying that they can’t match a delivery person. I still figure they’re just busy. Gave a good tip, so I doubt their drivers are refusing the order (they apparently will refuse, sometimes, if their cut doesn’t make it worthwhile, but I always tip well, so it’s never happened). But it’s taking too long and the kids are starting to gnaw on the furniture. So finally, go on Twitter and see that people all over North America are having same problem! DoorDash is having issues, continent-wide. Try to cancel order. But can’t even open the app now. Can’t open in browser either. Seems that the DoorDash system has completely crashed. Call the restaurant, and they’re like, “yeah, your food has been ready for a while but nobody picked it up.” So, I ask if I can just come get it. Which they agree to. It’s paid for anyway. Kids are pretty much insane because they’re an hour past dinner time and have been waiting (and it’s pizza so they were extra excited and now they’re extra crazy). But I finally get back with the food, get mobbed at the door, feed the raging beasts, and finally there’s peace. DoorDash is still crashed. Can’t get a refund (yet). I’ll deal with them tomorrow. EDIT: Good news, after fifth login attempt, system opened and they’ve issued a full refund on that order. So free pizza tonight. Just a little cold (actually not too bad because the restaurant kept it warm for us).

Nah, that’s his evil twin. (you can tell by the moustache )

How ‘bout that Will Lockwood?

How ‘bout that Karel Plasek?

It’ll all depend on Holtby. If he’s not taken in expansion, and not traded to shed cap, then he’s here next season and he will be the backup. But if we find ourselves in a situation where Holtby is no longer with the team, and maybe a cheap veteran/journeyman backup is signed, then I think it’ll be a legitimate competition between DiPietro and that veteran guy, as to who will be the NHL backup, and who ends up in Abbotsford. For what it’s worth, DiPietro fully intends to make the team next season. Most likely, he won’t have a chance, due to Holtby. But remove that factor from the equation, and all bets are off. Even with the development setback of not getting many games last season, DiPietro also had the benefit of working nearly the full year with Ian Clark. Those technical gains shouldn’t be understated. He’s a very different netminder now, compared to where his technique was in 2019-20. I think there’s a very good chance he could prove himself “NHL ready” at camp/preseason, if there’s actually a legitimate pathway open for him to claim that backup job (but again, that all depends on Holtby). Whatever happens, it’s a good situation and will be fun to watch. I expect Holtby to be much improved next year, and if he’s the Canucks backup, I expect him to have a really solid season, and him and Demko to provide a top notch 1-2 tandem. If in Abbortsford, I expect Mikey DiPietro to be among the AHL’s leading goaltenders, and a leader (on and off the ice) for that team. The end result might be Holtby traded at the deadline to a contender that wants to shore up their net, and DiPietro called up to finish the season in the NHL (and never look back, because I’m pretty confident he’s going to have a very good NHL career).

Yeah, his underlying numbers were the best on the team, and by a huge margin, but it was also just a ~20 minutes TOI sample, and also with the most offensively skewed deployment (for what it’s worth) on the team (zonestarts were 8 OZ, 7 NZ, 1 DZ, 20 OTF; aka 88.89% “offensive zone starts”). Still, his numbers were crazy good. Like 74.6 xGF% good (basically God level numbers). In some categories, his numbers were a full 25 percentage points higher than anyone else on the team. As in 50% better than the next guy. Or 150% of the next guy’s rate. However you want to look at it. I doubt he maintains anything close to those numbers, but they still indicate a very strong 3 games, and the potential for him to have a play driving effect (most likely due to his speed, as he’s a naturally gifted skater, and a big body) that might prove sustainable, albeit at much lower, mere mortal level percentages over larger samples.

Need to send this picture to Kenyon Lee (the TikTok height guy) and have him figure out Pod’s height using complex math and the height of his wife’s heels. Just to “settle” the height arguments once and for all. (Side note, Pod looks like he’s wearing hulk hands.)

They should. He’s cheap, solid depth and had some decent numbers last season. Point per game in his AHL stint (loaned to the Moose), and had the same goals/60 rate as Höglander with the Canucks. Got buried a bit on his underlying numbers, but really no worse than about a dozen other players who rotated through the bottom of the lineup last season.

Plus, with nearly $90M in career earnings, he probably doesn’t “need” the money at this point, if he’s been even minimally intelligent about how he spends and invests (not a guarantee with NHLers, but I’d hope Spezza is already “set for life”).

Wish Edler would consider doing something like this. Edler is about the same age now as Spezza was when he signed that first (2019-20) 35+ contract at 700K with the Leafs. Would love to see us doing a series of league minimum one year deals with Edler, for as long as he wants to play. (Not that I’d blame Edler or his agent for trying to get something closer to his actual worth, just would be nice to have a similar level bargain deal, for Edler, as what the Leafs have managed with Spezza.)

Seven posts in and no Willie Desjardins memes? You’re slipping CDC.

If the Finns are anything like the Canadians or Americans, I’d make very little of it. Jurmo isn’t a guy who was on the national team radar at a young age. If the Finnish system is anything like the ones in North America, it’s very hard for a player that hasn’t been picked at age 16/17 to get any kind of consideration for the team at 19. National teams play favourites, and they stick with the guys they know and have been there before. Especially for a guy like Jurmo, who is considered very “raw” but with great “tools.” That’s not the profile of a player who’s going to be picked for short term competitions where a bunch of guys get thrown together, under new coaches and staff, to learn systems, execute them, build chemistry and gel, and create an entire functioning team in a short timeframe. In that situation, you’re probably not picking the guy who “needs some work” (whether it’s accurate or just reputation), no matter how gifted he may be.

I’d love to have Dougie Hamilton on my team, but unfortunately, my team is the Vancouver Canucks, and that team has some significant work to do before it would by able to make the most of an addition like Hamilton. Hamilton is most effective playing with an elite or near elite two-way defenseman as his partner. Specifically, he needs to play with an aggressive defender who excels at recoveries. And that player also needs the 200ft defensive conscience to cover for Hamilton, when he roams, so that Dougie is free to just do his thing offensively. That partner also needs to be adept at making a quick first pass, to feed Hamilton and let him rush the puck up ice. The Canucks just don’t have that partner for Hamilton. Quinn Hughes definitely isn’t that player. Alex Edler might have been, if he were five years younger. And maybe one of Juolevi, or even Rathbone (he’s not there yet, but his two-way game is underrated, in terms of potential, and I expect him to develop into not just an offensive Dman but also a fine defensive player, and one who can play an aggressive game and excel on the recovery side), might become that player, if they were 3-5 years older, and their development over those years went as well as could be hoped. Nate Schmidt is maybe the closest option, right now, but he’s far from an ideal fit. I think there’s a chance he’d actually work with Hamilton, but that’s a big bet to make, and not one I’d have great confidence making. I wouldn’t count Schmidtty out, but I wouldn’t bank on it either. So, we don’t have the ideal partner for Hamilton right now. Most likely, that’s a player we’d need to acquire. And we already need to be finding a partner (ideally long term) for Hughes (unless Hamonic can fill that role), so it’s a tall order to find two supporting players, and of high quality, to partner both Hamilton and Hughes. Especially given our cap situation right now. Could a defence be built with a top-4 anchored by Hamilton (on one pairing) and Hughes (on another), with both of those weapons supported by defensively responsible players who also have two-way acumen and can defend and move the puck and support the offence, while playing alongside two rather unique, elite, offensive defensemen? Yes, of course. With the right partners, a top-4 with Hughes and Hamilton would be amazing to watch. Potentially one of the most dangerous, and effective, top-4 defences in the entire league. Could we build that kind of top-4 for next year? I seriously doubt it. Much as I’d love to have Hamilton here, I just don’t see the Canucks at the stage right now to make it work. We’re not in a financial spot where the monies really make sense under the cap. And we’re not nearly deep enough organizationally to be able to spend assets on trades that don’t necessarily fix some of our more pressing and immediate issues. Plus, we’re not contending, yet, and may not for some time. Adding Hamilton only really makes sense if he’s going to take us over the top, and be that final piece in building an elite team. We have lots of other issues to address first. Still, if Dougie somehow gets to free agency, and it’s just a signing (versus spending assets on a sign and trade), I wouldn’t be against JB chasing this specific big fish. Hamilton is a heck of a player, and value him highly. And maybe Benning finds a way to make the other changes necessary to make it all work. I can think of worse ideas than building around Hughes and Hamilton on the back end. But it’s going to take another two players, most likely both of them not already here (with all respect to Hamonic), to really optimize that kind of top-4, and that’s a pretty tough task, especially when we’re already dealing with cap issues, and limited resources for trades. Fun to think about, but probably that’s as far as it goes.

Or take some inspiration from Demko The Abbotsford Zombie Johnny Canucks

You mean you don’t want Zlodeyev’s training days to start with leisurely afternoon tea on a boat cruising down the Neva, followed by a trip to the gym, where he flips pucks at a bucket, while wearing sunglasses inside, and then celebrates to DJ Khaled’s “All I Do Is Win” when he actually gets a puck to land in the bucket?