SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

This guy got some great shots of the storm:

Thanks! Wonder why it didn’t come up in my search? Literally searched “OMG Thunder?” Or maybe I searched “OMG Lightning?” Can’t remember now. Feel free to move my post, if that’s something you do. Or not. I’m good either way.

Also, just to stay on topic, got a ****load of rain and the drains are overwhelmed and my driveway is flooded. I’m not sure if it was a good idea when I went out and stood barefoot and ankle deep in water while watching the crazy lightning overhead.

I couldn’t find an “OMG Lightning?” thread, so this one will have to do. Quite the electrical storm tonight. Possibly the most intense I’ve ever seen in the Vancouver area. Nothing like what you’ll see in Ontario or parts of the Prairies, but definitely a big thunder storm for the Lower Mainland. One strike was so close there was basically no gap between the lightning and thunder. And hit so hard it lit up my bedroom with a blinding flash of light, and shook the whole house. Somehow my kids slept through it. They are good sleepers! I’ve been outside watching the show, since I can’t sleep with all these flashes and noise. Storm seems to be moving north now, and getting less intense, but was a pretty good light show there for a while.

Agreed that the “draft genius” label hasn’t been earned, as far as the results from the past seven drafts. I think that most Canucks fans (including myself) just forgot what competent/average amateur scouting looks like in the NHL, as well as the huge difference made by draft position, when picking top-10, as a cellar dweller, versus the late first round, as a contender. As much as I expect the reaction on CDC to be one of “robble robble Canucks Smarmy robble robber hit piece,” I do think that the following article can be informative, when considering Benning’s drafting success: https://canucksarmy.com/2021/03/30/sham-sharron-hockey-draft-vancouver-canucks/ The whole “Sham Sharron” thing started before Benning took over the Canucks, and was used to analyze just how bad drafting had been under the previous regimes, and with head scout Ron Delorme. The results were not pretty, and proved what we already knew, the pre-Benning Canucks were pretty terrible at drafting. But it’s interesting that when you apply the same analysis in 2021, and look at Benning’s success rate, that same “lazy intern” with a spreadsheet manages to get results that are pretty darn close to what “draft genius” Jim Benning achieved (the writers actually argue Sham Sharron is better). There are obvious flaws to the whole “Sham Sharron” thing, which clearly represents the bluntest of blunt instruments, when it comes to a data driven drafting model (which is kind of the point, I think). The intern only is allowed to pick forwards from the CHL, which eliminates European prospects, NCAA, and other NA leagues like the USHL. So Sham is starting from quite a disadvantage. However, Sham also only picks forwards, which is probably going to return better GP and points, than picking forwards, defence, and goalies. Still, all things considered, you’d expect Benning and the Canucks scouts to wipe the floor with Sham Sharron and his spreadsheet, but unfortunately, that’s not what happens. And it’s not like Canucks Army tweaked their approach. They just ran the exact same simulation as they did against Gillis, Nonis, and Burke. And while the results weren’t as dramatic (Sham Sharron basically destroyed a Delorme scouting department), the fact that it’s pretty much a push between Benning and that fictional “intern with a spreadsheet,” suggests that much of our recent draft success comes down to merely having competent, but probably about league average, amateur scouting and drafting, over the past seven years. We’ve certainly added some fine young players (and you’ll probably not find many CDCers who get more excited about the draft picks or boost prospects more than I do), but as far as success at the draft table, we’ve probably just done about as well as should be expected, no more and no less, given the picks we’ve actually had available, at our draft position. Everything is relative. Benning took over in Vancouver at the end of what was arguably the worst extended period of failed drafting of any NHL team of the past quarter century or so. Achieving any level of competence, in amateur scouting and drafting, was going to look like “genius,” in comparison to the incompetence that had become largely the norm (there are a few exceptions, but they are few and far between). And especially when that newly acquired competence also coincided with several losing seasons, and resulting favourable draft position. (Credit where credit is due, however, and I do credit Benning (and Linden) for accomplishing what previous regimes apparently couldn’t. They fixed the broken scouting department. Gillis himself admitted that not fixing these issues earlier was a fatal flaw and one of his greatest regrets of his tenure. And it’s one of the reasons why MG deserved to be fired. Competent drafting is what landed us our exciting group of young players, and I’m grateful for that. I just don’t view Benning’s draft results as anything exceptional, given what really should be expected from draft selections made with those picks, especially when they are informed and guided by competent scouting.)

Haha, I know. Was putting my kid to bed when the OT goal was scored and misread on my phone. Saw the final now and have edited the post.

Well, that was entertaining. Not sure it was quite enough fun to make it worth losing two spots in the draft and wiping away about a quarter of our lottery odds, just from tonight, but hey, it was a very Canucks thing to do. We’ll probably sweep Calgary in the final two games of this three game “playoff series,” finish the season at 23rd overall, drop a further 3 spots in the draft (or 5 spots counting tonight), and enter the lottery with almost three times less of a chance of winning, than what our odds were sitting at before this game.

Right now, I’m hoping things line up so that we could go 1st round: Brandt Clarke, 2nd round: Scott Morrow, and 3rd round: Jack Bar. Nabbing 3 RHDs who are all 6’2”, 190+ lbs already, and each having NHL top-4 upside, would be a pretty successful draft. And we’d still have five more picks to make in rounds 5-7.

It’s a really bad sign, if indeed Benning is no longer free to make crucial management decisions like whether or not to give extensions to his coaching staff. The last time we saw a GM sidelined to that extent was with Gillis and the 2013-14 season. MG lost control over the head coach hiring, when Torts was forced by ownership. Later, his trades were blocked by the owners. And finally, his wishes to start a rebuild were denied. Ultimately, Gillis was fired. To quote Yogi Berra, “it’s like déjà vu all over again.” Benning may avoid that fate. The cat with nine lives is living dangerously, but he might have one or two lives left, before he’s finally called to kitty heaven. Especially if he’s willing to just stand idly on the sidelines, while the owners make all the important management decisions. But while it may save Benning’s job, I don’t think that kind of manager/owner relationship is very good for the team. Like I said in an earlier post, letting Clark walk would be the kind of fatal error that would prove, indisputably IMO, that this team no longer has a competent or functional leadership group running hockey operations. At that point, I say tear the whole thing down, from the top down, and start over. And, if that’s the case, I hope that the rumours that old man Luigi is getting fed up are true, because Papà Aquilini probably needs to put little Francesco in the corner to “think about what he’s done,” and let one of his other sons play with the toys for a while.

Which small sample size are we talking about, anyway? Highmore with 5 points in 15 GP, 0.33 points per game, and 1.56 5v5 points/60? Or Gaudette with 4 points in 7 GP, 0.57 points per game, and 2.27 5v5 points/60?

It’s an interesting comparison. I like our young core better, as far as the current roster NHLers, but I have to tip my hat to Ottawa’s superior prospect pool. The Sens also hold a greater stockpile of picks, especially in 2022. And as far as trend lines go, the Sens’ trajectory probably looks a bit better (or, at least a more typical and smooth looking upward trend—but they also had nowhere else to go but up ), versus our crash back down to earth this year, after looking like we were on the upswing last season. Both teams have many of the starting pieces in place (I think our group is more complete, however) to build around and construct a contending roster, but both teams also could easily fail in that task. Time will tell. In the hands of the right person, either team could be built up into a Cup winner, but with the wrong decisions, their fans could be forced to watch the prime years of their young talent wasted, and face many more years of futility and disappointment (I’m always such an optimist ).

I meant more that it’s possible Benning was sidelined and completely removed from the equation, with ownership deciding for themselves which players get extended this season, and then Gear executing their wishes. (Again, I have no proof this is the case. I don’t want to represent otherwise. Just that’s it’s a possibility.) And as far as whether or not this might handcuff a new GM, I’m not sure Aquilini would even consider that. Frankie seems to view the front office the way JB views the scouting department, when it comes to issues of autonomy, so I’d be surprised if ownership waited on pulling the trigger on player personnel decisions, even if they were planning a management change.

I haven’t been reading much into the Demko and Pearson deals, as far as an indicator of Benning’s status moving forward. Apparently much of the contract work has been delegated to Chris Gear, especially since his promotion to AGM. And while those deals may have been Benning decisions, they may also have been ownership’s call, with Gear tasked directly to work out the actual contracts. The Aquilinis have sidelined their GMs in the past, while publicly expressing support, and with the actual details only coming out later. Gear has been general counsel for CSE for about a decade or so, with his employment preceding the Benning hiring, so it’s possible that he reports directly to ownership on some matters, and any new SPCs negotiated this season might be one of them. I’m not saying this is the case. Just giving the reason why I don’t necessarily believe that Demko and Pearson getting new deals should be interpreted as any kind of signal of ownership’s confidence in Benning, or his job security, moving beyond this season.

It would be so Canucks if we now sweep the Flames and jump from 28th to 22nd in the standings, sacrificing 6 spots of draft position, and cutting our lottery win odds basically in half.

Nobody’s saying there’s a rule that you have to replace GMs every 2-3 years, just because you feel like it. But going 7 years without a replacement is unusual. Especially if that team is struggling, and the Canucks have been one of the worst teams in the league (26th by points percentage), under Benning. It’s just surprising to me that Benning is currently the 10th longest tenured GM in the NHL, despite the on-ice results. Most GMs don’t last that long. Especially when they lose. Looking around the league, since Benning was hired, Buffalo is on their 3rd GM, Edmonton their 4th, New Jersey their 3rd, Ottawa their 2nd, Arizona their 4th, Florida their 4th (Tallon x2), Toronto their 3rd, Philadelphia their 2nd, Colorado their 2nd, Islanders their 2nd, LA Kings their 2nd, Minnesota their 3rd, et cetera, et cetera (I’m getting bored looking this up, but you get the point).

Only roughly on average, or when you’re looking at Da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man. But when it comes to athletes, you’ll often find wingspans greater than their heights, especially for the average and below average height players. For example, Mikey DiPietro is only 72 inches tall, but IIRC he has a 77.5 inch wingspan.

I don’t really disagree that much (and actually, I wholeheartedly agree with many of your points, especially when it comes to what makes a good leader and a great manager) It’s more that I view Clark very differently from Brackett and Malhotra. In isolation, I think losing Judd and Manny is understandable, and possible even defensible. That doesn’t negate the losses, however. And those losses still can get counted toward a “death by a thousand cuts,” if they’re not being balanced out by wins in other areas. Losing Clark, however, would be a Mortal Combat “Fatality” finishing move level of failure. And one that I really can’t imagine recasting as anything remotely understanding or defensible (although I somewhat look forward to seeing how the most extreme JB lovers will try). If Clark walks, it will represent nothing less than a clear cut example of how this team is no longer functioning, at the highest levels, and requires massive, top-down changes, both to management, and very likely also to the structure/function of ownership, within hockey operations.

Brackett and Malhotra are forgivable, IMO. It’s the GM’s prerogative to decide how the scouting department is run, how active they want to be in the decisions, and how much autonomy they want to give the scouting director. We’ll never know what the whole story was, or whether Benning or Brackett’s side was closer to the truth, but it was clear that they no longer saw eye to eye, so a change was necessary. And so long as Benning was GM, it was his decision whether or not Brackett would be accommodated, or allowed to leave and seek the kind of role and relationship he wanted, as an NHL amateur scouting director. With Malhotra, it was mostly just that another team offered him a better job. This happens all the time around the league, and personnel are allowed to move and seek opportunities to advance their careers. I suppose the Canucks could have looked to match the position, and promoted Manny to a full bench assistant with special teams duties, but that would have probably meant firing/demoting Newell Brown (probably a good move, in hindsight), but I expect Green wouldn’t have been on board with this, nor was it something management wanted to do, at the time. Ian Clark, however, is a very different story. By all accounts, he’s been very happy working in Vancouver, and willing to remain here. Of course, Clark always has options to move, as he’s one of the best goaltending consultants in the world, and always has a long list of opportunities (since he’s probably an upgrade for 90% of NHL teams), but any change of employment would basically be a lateral move, from Clark’s perspective, as he’d just be moving teams to do the same job. So, if he’s happy where he is, there’s really no risk of him being poached (other than maybe another team backing up the Brinks truck and offering him crazy money). But pay him what he’s worth, and show him the respect of not making him wait and wonder about his future, and I’m nearly 100% sure that Clark would have signed another contract to remain in Vancouver, and finish the job he’s doing with Demko, DiPietro, etc. Our young goaltenders have raved about Clarky, and the role he’s played in their development. Clark is universally regarded as a one of the very best at what he does, and it’s virtually impossible to replace him with a better goalie coach. Clark is somebody you simply hold on to for as long as he’s willing to remain with the team. It’s a no brainer. If he walks, it’s an unforgivable unforced error IMO. The only question will be who to blame, ownership or management, or some combination of both.

Totally agree about the cycles that teams go through. However, it’s also highly unusual for a team to go through a down/rebuilding phase like the Canucks have, for the past seven years, and keep the same GM. It’s much more common for a team with similar results to be on their second or even third management group, by this point in time. I’d be interested to hear of any example within the past 25 years of a GM remaining at the helm after his tenure yielding similar results to JB’s. I’ve never been one of the people actively rooting for Benning to be fired, but I’ve also been somewhat baffled by his ability to remain unscathed and secure in his position as Canucks GM. Just based on the norms, around the league, and the standards most GMs are held to, Benning could easily have been fired several times over already. He’s really been the cat with nine lives in Vancouver.

Add in the fact that Toffoli was ultimately willing to sign a very reasonable contract at $4.25M AAV and with zero trade clauses attached. That’s a very saleable asset and one that could be cashed in, whenever needed, yielding a tidy return (probably right now could easily get a first rounder plus another piece or two).

Eric Tulsky would be a true “change” pick for GM. Plus, it would be really fun to watch half of CDC have their heads explode when the team was handed over to complete egghead, “never played the game” type, analytics guy with a genius IQ and several advanced degrees. Basically, the anti-Benning. (Although, in all seriousness, Tulsky is one of the fastest rising talents in NHL management, likely the heir apparent to Don Waddell in Carolina, if he’s not tapped for a GM role somewhere else first. Surrounded by the right AGMs and management team, and possibly with a name brand “hockey man” in the President’s chair, Tulsky would actually be a very exciting GM pick IMO.)

Well, that’s the rumour, and a fascinating one, if true. Apparently, the story is that Luigi Aquilini, the family patriarch, has had enough of what’s been happening with the team and is stepping in. It’s said that he wants to take the keys away from son Francesco, who he feels has become too tied to Benning, and put younger son Roberto in charge of CSE, and completely restructure both hockey ops and the business side. Of course, this is all originating from Sekeres and his “sources,” so it’s most likely fabricated, or at least wildly inaccurate. But if it’s true, it would make for a very intriguing next few months in Canuckland.

It’ll never happen, but a Gorton GM, with Gillis President, Canucks front office would have some definite potential, especially if they were given the chance to do a wholesale restructuring of both hockey ops and the business side. Need more than a Sekeres rumour, however, before taking anything seriously, when it comes to today’s #FireBenning story having any kind of legs.

Interesting. (Farhan is quoting Sekeres however, so this probably means Benning is getting his contract renegotiated so the Canucks can sign him to a lifetime extension. )

Hopefully we get a few more greyed out player profiles by the time the game roster is announced, and for the 3 games after. Sit some vets and play as many kids as possible, within the roster/recall allowances. Get the kids in for the game experience, and to give us the best chance of losing all of the remaining games (or at least 3 of 4). There is absolutely no shame in “tanking” now. Especially in this ridiculous Covid season, and forced to play these pointless, rescheduled, make-up games. We need to do whatever we can to hold fast at 28th overall in the standings, and ensure we have the best lottery odds, and highest possible draft position through all 7 rounds of the draft.