Intoewsables

unvote; vote Shiznak (can't remember where I previously parked my vote) Hopefully Melvin gets GKed today and flips scum.

Was in the middle of posting this when I got pulled away for like an hour plus. Hopefully this isn't completely useless now. -- On one hand, I'm having a hard time understanding the motivation for Town!MR to fake soft claim tracker. Maybe I'm just out of touch with all the advanced strategies employed on other boards, but I don't know why he'd do that unless he was providing cover for the real tracker. We didn't even know there was a tracker in the game at that point, so it seems far more likely (to me) that he was fishing for town cred. On the other hand, I really like Shiznak as a target and I think there's a very good chance he flips scum. I could be persuaded either way. You guys seem to have a better handle on the state of the game than I do at the moment.

Just realized this is really stupid. If SS is there at nightfall, he almost certainly moves the kill off of NIK and tries to mislynch him. Most likely scenario is that SS wasn't around for nightfall and this is NAI on J-23.

Lol wait, MR claimed tracker? I'll ISO him in a few minutes. Btw @Zfetch, have you shared your other results?

Accidentally included WW in both buckets. I'll leave him in my second bucket for now. Thoughts on yeeting either Melvin or Shiznak tonight? I'm open to anyone in my second bucket as well.

(Making the assumption that all claimed roles are legit) Based on this, I'm guessing we have at least two scum within [Porscha/Melvin, Where's Wellwood, Master Radishes, Shiznak]. SS was going hard after NIK an hour before nightfall, when NIK and Aladeen were the two leading wagons. Have to think SS switches to NIK if him and Aladeen are teammates, as he would have given himself sufficient cover to do so. Pretty comfortable clearing Aladeen at least for now. SS didn't post during the J-23/NIK chaos leading up to nightfall, but if he was following along, I suspect he'd also switch to NIK to help save J-23 if they were teammates. Less confident in this because SS wasn't posting at the time, but I think I'd keep J-23 alive for now unless there's something damning that I've missed. Again, I suspect many scum were either no votes or hiding off of the main wagons. Likely a scum within [Porscha/Melvin, Shiznak] IMO. Guessing this is the same as earlier rounds where it's mostly town voting town on the main wagons. Mafia likely hiding in random votes or not voting. I think if we lynch and vig two of [Porscha/Melvin, Where's Wellwood, Shiznak], we come out looking good tonight. [Jazz, Alchemy Time, Master Radishes, Where's Wellwood, Ilunga] likely has a couple scum but I'm less sure on those ones.

Not sure why you're getting so upset about this lmao. Chill.

You and a few others seem very confident in lucky being town. Help me see what you're seeing. This game gets a lot easier if I can set aside my LL/Aladeen paranoia.

Nice. I think we're in a really good position here now.

I think I need to stick with my gut here. SS was giving me major scum vibes and I was right. Ilunga is giving me major scum vibes and he fits well into the slanker theory. Vote Ilunga @Aladeen I think I see your point on MR, but Ilunga feels like a safer target to me. I can be persuaded on this though so feel free to make a good argument. I'll be back later to think it over a bit more.

Can you explain this a bit more? My spidey senses are telling me you're making an important point, but my hangover is making it hard to comprehend lmao

I do find it weird that Ilunga's only contribution to the thread is talking this out with MR. Feels a bit like wolf/wolf.

I agree with this. The number of slankers in this game makes a PoE pretty much impossible. We need more info.

FWIW, lucky getting super butthurt over me scum reading him -- especially when no one else in the town seems to care -- is well within his scum meta.

Maybe a N0 check? It's also possible the mafia just took out BW because he could be a dangerous townie and they lucked out on him being 3P.

Also worth mentioning that MR belongs in the PoE of an SS + slankers universe since he wouldn't have been around to change the MK on NIK on N2.

This is a very incorrect characterization of my game so far but I don't know if it's derp town or scummy tbh.

I am deeply offended by this. I wanted to yeet SS on day one but none of you potatoes agreed.

Also seems likely that the Mafia have an investigative role based on some of their targets. BW on night one is understandable if he was more active, but my guess is they investigated him and saw he was 3P and felt he had to go. I don't know how they landed on investigating Tanev, but that would explain taking him out too. I just can't shake the feeling that they took out NIK because he was 3/3 on his SS/LL/Aladeen reads.

SS + slankers is a good theory based on how N2 unfolded. The fact that the Mafia targeted NIK when he was that close to being lynched gives that theory a lot of credibility. Ilunga being part of that team fits nicely for me given how his earlier posts threw up a lot of red flags imo. I still have some worries about a potential LL/Aladeen scum pairing, but it's looking a bit less likely than SS + slankers after the last couple of pages.

Okay I'm suddenly feeling way better about my reads after last night. Thank you ilduce love you bb

BJ pls

If SS flips scum, I love you so much. If SS flips town, I never doubted him for a second and our vig is an idiot!!!

Hope you guys are right. As far as I can remember, BK being inactive and unhelpful is NAI.