nuckin_futz Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Boudrias said: I have real concerns how the economy overcomes the debt issue and demographics. Politicians as a rule don't have much economic sense and are the author of much of the inflation we are in now. They throw money out to try and drive growth up but with limited long term success. Most GDP growth rates had to hit 3.5% to make their old budgets work. Pensions are even worse than that is some cases. They need the growth to increase revenue into their estimations or they are undefendable. South Korea spent $200 billion, but it can’t pay people enough to have a baby Seoul, South Korea CNN — The season of baby fairs is here once again in South Korea. Busy, noisy affairs held in cavernous conference halls where hundreds of vendors try to sell expectant parents everything they could possibly desire for their new bundle of joy – and plenty of other things they never knew they needed. But this is a shrinking business, and the customer base is dwindling. South Korea recently broke its own record for the world’s lowest fertility rate. Figures released in November showed the average number of children a South Korean woman will have in her lifetime is down to just 0.79. That is far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population and low even compared to other developed countries where the rate is falling, such as the United States (1.6) and Japan – which at 1.3 reported its own lowest rate on record. And it spells trouble for a country with an aging population that faces a looming shortage of workers to support its pension system. ************************** This is a massive global problem. And the only solution to this problem is immigrants. If the existing population wont produce enough kids to maintain the economy then immigrants are coming. Edited December 4, 2022 by nuckin_futz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 14 hours ago, nuckin_futz said: South Korea spent $200 billion, but it can’t pay people enough to have a baby Seoul, South Korea CNN — The season of baby fairs is here once again in South Korea. Busy, noisy affairs held in cavernous conference halls where hundreds of vendors try to sell expectant parents everything they could possibly desire for their new bundle of joy – and plenty of other things they never knew they needed. But this is a shrinking business, and the customer base is dwindling. South Korea recently broke its own record for the world’s lowest fertility rate. Figures released in November showed the average number of children a South Korean woman will have in her lifetime is down to just 0.79. That is far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population and low even compared to other developed countries where the rate is falling, such as the United States (1.6) and Japan – which at 1.3 reported its own lowest rate on record. And it spells trouble for a country with an aging population that faces a looming shortage of workers to support its pension system. ************************** This is a massive global problem. And the only solution to this problem is immigrants. If the existing population wont produce enough kids to maintain the economy then immigrants are coming. Demographics show a shrinking populations thru most of the world. People have to understand what that means to them. A growing number of Canadians to not approve of projected immigration of +500,000 people per year. While I do not think our federal government has done near enough in housing to accommodate this influx I do support the need for it. Heaven forbid Canada actually has a open forum to discuss such issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 18 hours ago, nuckin_futz said: South Korea spent $200 billion, but it can’t pay people enough to have a baby Seoul, South Korea CNN — The season of baby fairs is here once again in South Korea. Busy, noisy affairs held in cavernous conference halls where hundreds of vendors try to sell expectant parents everything they could possibly desire for their new bundle of joy – and plenty of other things they never knew they needed. But this is a shrinking business, and the customer base is dwindling. South Korea recently broke its own record for the world’s lowest fertility rate. Figures released in November showed the average number of children a South Korean woman will have in her lifetime is down to just 0.79. That is far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population and low even compared to other developed countries where the rate is falling, such as the United States (1.6) and Japan – which at 1.3 reported its own lowest rate on record. And it spells trouble for a country with an aging population that faces a looming shortage of workers to support its pension system. ************************** This is a massive global problem. And the only solution to this problem is immigrants. If the existing population wont produce enough kids to maintain the economy then immigrants are coming. That solution just kicks the can down the road, unless the immigrants themselves are more conservative family focused people (the irony on who wants immigrants and what they are is hilarious to me). That rampant global worldwide inflation and government policy that seems focused on keeping everyone in society where they are is the failure. Who wants to have a kid when you can't afford the one bedroom apartment you can barely afford to put yourself up in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HI5 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks like the Atlas crew finally got hit by the SEC. SEC Charges Eight Social Media Influencers in $100 Million Stock Manipulation Scheme Promoted on Discord and Twitter FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 2022-221 Washington D.C., Dec. 14, 2022 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced charges against eight individuals in a $100 million securities fraud scheme in which they used the social media platforms Twitter and Discord to manipulate exchange-traded stocks. According to the SEC, since at least January 2020, seven of the defendants promoted themselves as successful traders and cultivated hundreds of thousands of followers on Twitter and in stock trading chatrooms on Discord. These seven defendants allegedly purchased certain stocks and then encouraged their substantial social media following to buy those selected stocks by posting price targets or indicating they were buying, holding, or adding to their stock positions. However, as the complaint alleges, when share prices and/or trading volumes rose in the promoted securities, the individuals regularly sold their shares without ever having disclosed their plans to dump the securities while they were promoting them. "As our complaint states, the defendants used social media to amass a large following of novice investors and then took advantage of their followers by repeatedly feeding them a steady diet of misinformation, which resulted in fraudulent profits of approximately $100 million," said Joseph Sansone, Chief of the SEC Enforcement Division’s Market Abuse Unit. "Today’s action exposes the true motivation of these alleged fraudsters and serves as another warning that investors should be wary of unsolicited advice they encounter online." The following seven individuals were charged with securities fraud: Name State of Residence Twitter Handle Perry Matlock Texas @PJ_Matlock Edward Constantin Texas @MrZackMorris Thomas Cooperman California @ohheytommy Gary Deel California @notoriousalerts Mitchell Hennessey New Jersey @Hugh_Henne Stefan Hrvatin Florida @LadeBackk John Rybarczyk Texas @Ultra_Calls The complaint further charges Daniel Knight (Twitter Handle @DipDeity), of Texas, with aiding and abetting the alleged scheme by, among other things, co-hosting a podcast in which he promoted many of the other individuals as expert traders and provided them with a forum for their manipulative statements. Knight also traded in concert with the other defendants and regularly generated profits from the manipulation. The SEC's complaint, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas, seeks permanent injunctions, disgorgement, prejudgment interest, and civil penalties against each defendant, as well as a penny stock bar against Hrvatin. Criminal charges against all eight individuals also were filed in a parallel action brought by the Department of Justice’s Fraud Section and the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Texas. The SEC’s investigation, which is ongoing, is being handled by Andrew Palid, David Scheffler, and Michele T. Perillo of the Market Abuse Unit (MAU) in the Boston Regional Office, with assistance from Darren Boerner of the MAU, Stuart Jackson, Kathryn Schumann-foster, and Marina Martynova of the Division of Risk and Economic Analysis (DERA) and Howard Kaplan of the Office of Investigative and Market Analytics. The investigation resulted from a referral from the Division of Examinations by Mark A. Gera, John Kachmor, Nitish Bahadur, and Raymond Tan in the Boston Regional Office. The litigation will be led by David D’Addio and Amy Burkart of the Boston Regional Office. The SEC appreciates the assistance of the Criminal Fraud Section of the U.S. Department of Justice, the United States Attorney's Office for the Southern District of Texas, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy has issued an Investor Alert on Social Media and Investment Fraud. Investors can find additional information, including the warning signs of fraud, at Investor.gov. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-221 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 44 minutes ago, HI5 said: Looks like the Atlas crew finally got hit by the SEC. SEC Charges Eight Social Media Influencers in $100 Million Stock Manipulation Scheme Promoted on Discord and Twitter FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 2022-221 Washington D.C., Dec. 14, 2022 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced charges against eight individuals in a $100 million securities fraud scheme in which they used the social media platforms Twitter and Discord to manipulate exchange-traded stocks. According to the SEC, since at least January 2020, seven of the defendants promoted themselves as successful traders and cultivated hundreds of thousands of followers on Twitter and in stock trading chatrooms on Discord. These seven defendants allegedly purchased certain stocks and then encouraged their substantial social media following to buy those selected stocks by posting price targets or indicating they were buying, holding, or adding to their stock positions. However, as the complaint alleges, when share prices and/or trading volumes rose in the promoted securities, the individuals regularly sold their shares without ever having disclosed their plans to dump the securities while they were promoting them. "As our complaint states, the defendants used social media to amass a large following of novice investors and then took advantage of their followers by repeatedly feeding them a steady diet of misinformation, which resulted in fraudulent profits of approximately $100 million," said Joseph Sansone, Chief of the SEC Enforcement Division’s Market Abuse Unit. "Today’s action exposes the true motivation of these alleged fraudsters and serves as another warning that investors should be wary of unsolicited advice they encounter online." The following seven individuals were charged with securities fraud: Name State of Residence Twitter Handle Perry Matlock Texas @PJ_Matlock Edward Constantin Texas @MrZackMorris Thomas Cooperman California @ohheytommy Gary Deel California @notoriousalerts Mitchell Hennessey New Jersey @Hugh_Henne Stefan Hrvatin Florida @LadeBackk John Rybarczyk Texas @Ultra_Calls The complaint further charges Daniel Knight (Twitter Handle @DipDeity), of Texas, with aiding and abetting the alleged scheme by, among other things, co-hosting a podcast in which he promoted many of the other individuals as expert traders and provided them with a forum for their manipulative statements. Knight also traded in concert with the other defendants and regularly generated profits from the manipulation. The SEC's complaint, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas, seeks permanent injunctions, disgorgement, prejudgment interest, and civil penalties against each defendant, as well as a penny stock bar against Hrvatin. Criminal charges against all eight individuals also were filed in a parallel action brought by the Department of Justice’s Fraud Section and the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Texas. The SEC’s investigation, which is ongoing, is being handled by Andrew Palid, David Scheffler, and Michele T. Perillo of the Market Abuse Unit (MAU) in the Boston Regional Office, with assistance from Darren Boerner of the MAU, Stuart Jackson, Kathryn Schumann-foster, and Marina Martynova of the Division of Risk and Economic Analysis (DERA) and Howard Kaplan of the Office of Investigative and Market Analytics. The investigation resulted from a referral from the Division of Examinations by Mark A. Gera, John Kachmor, Nitish Bahadur, and Raymond Tan in the Boston Regional Office. The litigation will be led by David D’Addio and Amy Burkart of the Boston Regional Office. The SEC appreciates the assistance of the Criminal Fraud Section of the U.S. Department of Justice, the United States Attorney's Office for the Southern District of Texas, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy has issued an Investor Alert on Social Media and Investment Fraud. Investors can find additional information, including the warning signs of fraud, at Investor.gov. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-221 Read the entire complaint last night. So glad to see these mf'ers get strung up. From another article ......... "They are charged with conspiracy to commit securities fraud, which carries a maximum of 25 years in prison. " 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said: Read the entire complaint last night. So glad to see these mf'ers get strung up. From another article ......... "They are charged with conspiracy to commit securities fraud, which carries a maximum of 25 years in prison. " so max 25 for planning to do it; how much more for actually doing it, I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 55 minutes ago, Gurn said: so max 25 for planning to do it; how much more for actually doing it, I wonder? Not sure, but there is one name that is suspiciously missing from the SEC complaint and that is the Twitter handle Ripster. He's a founding member of Atlas trading where a lot of these 'recommendations' were amplified. The SEC paid $20 million to a whistle blower who provided recordings of private conversations of the illegal behaviour. Not too difficult to figure out who the rat is. Pretty good deal for him. He avoids jail, maybe has to privately disgorge profits illegally gained (which I'd assume is maybe $3 million) and gets a $20 million reward. Just has to avoid his former 'friends' once they get out the slammer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2022: Estimated $2 trillion in bitcoin gone.... 2023: How bad are earning hurt in 2023? Mild recession - 10%. Normal recession - 19%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) There was huge news from the Bank of Japan last night. .... Bank of Japan pivot bombshell - widening 10yr JGB band to 0.5% (from 0.25). Yen up Yen has surged and Nikkei (Japan shares) trashed. The initial headlines were that the BOJ had left its policy unchanged, which they have. to maintain a -0.1% target for short-term rates and a 0% cap for the 10-year bond yield (around 0%) BUT they widened that band in which they allow the 10 yr JGB to move from 0.25% to 0.5%. This, in effect, is a long-awaited 'pivot' from the BOJ. A mini pivot for sure, but given nothing was expected until April, its significant. More significant items from the statement: to increase bond purchases to JPY 9tln/month in Q1 will review operation of Yield Curve Control (YCC) to conduct additional JGB purchases on December 22 In widening the band for the JGB target, the BOJ says that “the functioning of bond markets has deteriorated... If these market conditions persist, this could have a negative impact on financial conditions." JPY has surged, USD/JPY plunged to circa 134.30 while the Nikkei dropped (futures trade is active, down over 4%, physical is closed for the lunch break ... traders getting indigestion as we speak) USD crushed -4% vs the Yen to 131.5 to the USD. The chart only shows half the drop in USD/JPY. JGB = Japanese Government Bonds Edited December 20, 2022 by nuckin_futz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Just reading about the Gary Ng story out of Winnipeg. He is a man with a net worth of $500,000 who faked documents that suggested he was worth close to $100 million. Using these forgeries he borrowed over $240 million and used it to buy numerous companies. At some point people working within his organization blew the whistle and now the RCMP are investigating. Meanwhile another fake and defrauder, Bankman-Fried is back in the USA and actually out on bail. How do you figure that? He stole $ billions. My point in all this is a commentary on the level of moral depravity in society today. Many people have no compunction about stealing for their own benefit. This is the obvious example. Simply put there is less demonstration of community. Volunteerism is dying as people look to government to solve all their wants and desires. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 (edited) On 12/24/2022 at 5:54 AM, Boudrias said: Just reading about the Gary Ng story out of Winnipeg. He is a man with a net worth of $500,000 who faked documents that suggested he was worth close to $100 million. Using these forgeries he borrowed over $240 million and used it to buy numerous companies. At some point people working within his organization blew the whistle and now the RCMP are investigating. Meanwhile another fake and defrauder, Bankman-Fried is back in the USA and actually out on bail. How do you figure that? He stole $ billions. My point in all this is a commentary on the level of moral depravity in society today. Many people have no compunction about stealing for their own benefit. This is the obvious example. Simply put there is less demonstration of community. Volunteerism is dying as people look to government to solve all their wants and desires. Sad. Sounds like John Spanos who onece bought the Islanders. Edited December 28, 2022 by nuckin_futz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Another Guru/Charlatan proven to be a complete numbskull. This woman has the worst risk management I have ever seen. How they keep bringing her on TV to spout her bull**** price targets is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Ex-CFO pleads guilty to stealing $5mn to trade meme stocks, cryptos (& lose it all) A former chief financial officer of multiple special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) has pleaded guilty to embezzling more than $5 million from them, and losing almost all of it trading meme stocks and cryptocurrencies. Cooper Morgenthau pleaded guilty to one count of wire fraud faces a possible prison sentence of about six to 7-1/4 years Most of his losses, says the story, came from crypto trading, although he managed to lose a chunk of cash the good old-fashioned way, by trading stocks. ***************** Lost it trading meme stocks and crypto??? At least blow it in Vegas or Ibiza. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnkNuk Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Tesla comes up in these forums fairly often. Morningstar has an article about it: https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/230610/tesla-a-stock-for-our-times.aspx?utm_source=sendgrid&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=intl_newsletter_email Tesla: A Stock for Our Times Each January, I write about a company that reflects the stock market’s zeitgeist. Two years ago, the firm was GameStop GME, meme stocks then being the rage. Last year’s topic was Digital World Acquisition Corp. DWAC, which was flying high thanks to its arranged marriage with Donald Trump’s new business venture, Trump Media. (As in a Julia Roberts film, that ceremony has since been twice postponed.) This year’s selection is, of course, Tesla TSLA. The company was not only among 2022′s two biggest stock market stories (along with Twitter, which is no longer publicly available), but it also neatly symbolizes the rise and fall of the previous bull market. In summer 2020 Tesla looked unbeatable...Then pfft. Tesla retreated so sharply that it now trails the Morningstar US Market Index over the past 16 months. What’s more, the stock now trades below its August 2020 close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 12/24/2022 at 5:54 AM, Boudrias said: Just reading about the Gary Ng story out of Winnipeg. He is a man with a net worth of $500,000 who faked documents that suggested he was worth close to $100 million. Using these forgeries he borrowed over $240 million and used it to buy numerous companies. At some point people working within his organization blew the whistle and now the RCMP are investigating. Meanwhile another fake and defrauder, Bankman-Fried is back in the USA and actually out on bail. How do you figure that? He stole $ billions. My point in all this is a commentary on the level of moral depravity in society today. Many people have no compunction about stealing for their own benefit. This is the obvious example. Simply put there is less demonstration of community. Volunteerism is dying as people look to government to solve all their wants and desires. Sad. Don't worry once the government runs out of money it will come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On topic I need to stuff a couple more thousand into the RRSP (so I can get a tax refund and do my part to spur inflation) and am trying to figure out what to invest it in. I am sure I will figure it out on my own but might as well to my part to bring this on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/10/2023 at 4:33 PM, UnkNuk said: Tesla comes up in these forums fairly often. Morningstar has an article about it: https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/230610/tesla-a-stock-for-our-times.aspx?utm_source=sendgrid&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=intl_newsletter_email Tesla: A Stock for Our Times Each January, I write about a company that reflects the stock market’s zeitgeist. Two years ago, the firm was GameStop GME, meme stocks then being the rage. Last year’s topic was Digital World Acquisition Corp. DWAC, which was flying high thanks to its arranged marriage with Donald Trump’s new business venture, Trump Media. (As in a Julia Roberts film, that ceremony has since been twice postponed.) This year’s selection is, of course, Tesla TSLA. The company was not only among 2022′s two biggest stock market stories (along with Twitter, which is no longer publicly available), but it also neatly symbolizes the rise and fall of the previous bull market. In summer 2020 Tesla looked unbeatable...Then pfft. Tesla retreated so sharply that it now trails the Morningstar US Market Index over the past 16 months. What’s more, the stock now trades below its August 2020 close. I don't know how the finances are but I have noticed that I actually see Teslas all the time so they are definitely actually selling them now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 12/27/2022 at 4:16 PM, nuckin_futz said: Another Guru/Charlatan proven to be a complete numbskull. This woman has the worst risk management I have ever seen. How they keep bringing her on TV to spout her bull**** price targets is beyond me. LOL. People that shoot for the moon by taking massive risks can look like genius types, and it creates a stampede from the sheeple. And as always, eventually, they run off a cliff. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Shares of Silicon Valley Bank halted with news pending, down 63% premarket Silicon Valley Bank put a fright into the market yesterday as it had to sell stock to raise capital in order to plug a hole in the balance sheet due to Treasury liquidation sales. The bank is obviously having a very bad week, falling 89% and with Peter Thiel and others telling clients (heavily in venture capital) to pull funds. If the news is that it's been taken over then risk assets will take the news positively. If the government has to step in to wind it down, I also think that will be taken positively but I'm less confident. Anything disorderly will be a problem. CNBC's David Faber reports that yesterday's capital raise failed, which isn't a big surprise given where it's trading in the pre-market. He also said that the company has hired advisors to sell itself and noted that 'large financial institutions' are 'taking a look'. The equity value of this bank is down to something like $3 billion and there are around $220 billion in deposits. It's obviously a fire sale at this point but even if it went for $1, the market would like that. I don't imagine it will be a long wait. Why contagion from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse is a certainty Why wouldn't you pull your money out? A look at share prices of other regional banks as California regulators close Silicon Valley Bank: First Republic Bank -23% Western Alliance Bancorp -40% PacWest Bancorp -33% Signature Bank -22% If you had your money there or in another of the dozens of regional banks that are under fire, what would you do right now? If it's less than $250K, you have nothing to worry about. The FDIC said deposits in Silicon Valley Bank below that level will be available on Monday in what's a remarkably efficient outcome for regular people. Bit Silicon Valley Bank said it has $151.5 billion above the FDIC insured limits. That money -- or at least of good portion of it -- will be locked up now as the FDIC attempts to sell Silicon Valley Bank assets. If you have to make payroll on Monday, good luck. Now the above list of banks and many others may be fine but if you're a business owner with more than $250K parked there, what do you do? There's a reason that shares of JPMorgan are up 1.3% today while regional banks crumble. FDIC takes control of Silicon Valley Bank Regulators close down Silicon Valley Bank Silicon Valley Bank was closed today by the California Dept of Financial Protection and Innovation, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. The FDIC will pay uninsired depositors an advance dividend within the next week and a receivership certificate for the remainder of uninsured funds. The FDIC said the bank had $175.4B in deposits in the bank. Shares of SIVB never opened today but will presumably go to zero with bond holders taking a haircut as well. And that is why you get your money above $250K out of a bank that's in trouble and it's why bank runs happen. It's a bad outcome from any depositors who might now find themselves in a liquidity crunch. The good news is that this was swift but the question is whether it spreads. Right now, shares of First Republic are holding up ok. The KRE regional bank ETF has pared losses but there's been some fresh selling in the past 30 minutes. Shares of JP Morgan are higher today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 “Held to maturity” bonds are about to be a big problem The problem that felled Silicon Valley Bank is widespread Here's the crux of the problem. Banks have deposits and they need to do something with them. They can lend them out and often do, but you can't lend it all out. What was seen as something safe to do with the rest was to invest it in the safest investments in the world: US Treasuries. The problem is that those investments weren't so safe. As the Federal Reserve rapidly hiked rates the 1.6% yielding 10-year notes are suddenly paying 4%. That means the prices of those bond have fallen from, say, 100 to 96. That doesn't look like a big loss but there are huge amounts invested. There are rules that banks don't have to 'mark-to-market' those losses because there are no losses if they hold them to maturity. The problem is if everyone wants their money back. That's what happened to Silicon Valley Bank. When worries about it began to spread, companies began to pull cash and they needed to sell those Treasuries. When they sold them at 96 instead of 100, there was a shortfall. They tried to plug that with an equity raise but it was poorly handled and only added to the run on the bank. Now we have contagion. Shares of other banks are falling by 40% and you can bet that account holders are liquidating like they did at Silicon Valley Bank. Will they have to sell those bonds and take losses? Chillingly, here's a story from November in the WSJ about exposure for the biggest US banks. "For the 24 big U.S. lenders in the KBW Bank Index, the combined balance-sheet value of held-to-maturity bonds was $2.21 trillion as of Sept. 30, according to a Wall Street Journal review of their filings. The market value was $1.91 trillion, or 14% less. The gap was negligible when the year started." That's a $300 billion hole. Bank of America's exposure is illustrative. "Among the KBW index members, the lender with the largest gap by dollar amount was Bank of America Corp. Its latest balance sheet showed $644 billion of held-to-maturity bonds. Their market value was $528 billion, according to an accompanying disclosure. The $116 billion difference was equivalent to 43% of Bank of America’s $270 billion of total equity, or assets minus liabilities, as of Sept. 30. At the start of the year, before rates surged, the market value and balance-sheet value were within 1% of each other." Here's a graphic from the WSJ: Is everyone going to pull their deposits from Bank of America? No but the worry is that the latest panic will spread to a number of smaller banks as deposits are yanked and moved to too-big-to-fail banks. Ultimately, bank have a way to fight back: Higher deposit rates but that doesn't work until confidence is restored, which could take action from the Fed or Treasury. Maybe this will fizzle out on its own but this is the situation right now and worries about 'held to maturity' bonds will linger. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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