Ideal team age bias vs. the Canucks

[steviewonder20]

22 hours ago, ABNuck said:

Doing a bit of research. Since it seems to be a league of analytics now, I thought I'd give it a shot to see if the analytics expose a fundamental issue with the Canucks (not too surprised by results...pretty much proves out what we already know). This analytic is age based only (not accounting for exceptional talent before or beyond the target ages).

IDEAL NHL TEAM (the ideal target each GM should - IMHO - strive for) is comprised of:

Players 18 to 23 (20% with bias towards the 21 to 23 age group)

Players 24 to 31 (70% with bias towards the 24 to 27 age group)

Players 32+ (10%)

LAST YEAR SCW (CHICAGO)

18 to 23 (18%) / 24 to 31 (69%) / 32+ (13%)

PREVIOUS YEAR SCW (LA QUEENS)

18 to 23 (15%) / 24 to 31 (70%) / 32+ (15%)

OUR CURRENT CANUCKS

18 to 23 (24%) / 24 to 31 (49%) / 32+ (27%)

In order to fix this issue, obviously, we need to ideally get rid of 5 players aged 32+ and replace them with players aged 24 to 31.

The obvious ones to go out are Higgins, Vrbata, Burrows, Miller and Hamhuis.

THE EASY FIXES:

Markstrom will replace Miller / Demko will replace Markstrom

MODERATELY EASY FIX:

Hamhuis is UFA (and also the youngest of the group at 32), so trade, release or re-sign for 1 more season

MODERATELY DIFFICULT FIX:

Vrbata. He still has value and could bring us a good serviceable NHL winger if packed together with a 2nd (Huberdeau?)

DIFFICULT FIX:

Higgins. He will bring us little in return...certainly not what we give up. We can't dress the pick we get so I'm guessing somebody on the Comets gets a shot. Still, we'd have to find a buyer, and that might not be so easy.

Burrows is a heart of the Canucks (with a NMC), if not on the scoreboard at least in the dressing room. If only he was 5 years younger right now. Regardless, he's be almost impossible to move, only trade partner MIGHT be the Habs or Sens...but again, we might not get much back, so back to the Comets for a replacement.

Unless we can pickup a player in the 24 to 30 yr old range to replace Higgins/Burrows, we may still be in a similar age related rut, this time the other way (too young with insufficient experience to help much).

Ideal replacements: Vrbata and Higgins (+ a 2nd) out / Huberdeau in. Hamhuis and Burrows out (wherever) / Johansen and Hamonic in.

1ST - SEDIN (34) / SEDIN (34) / SUTTER (26)

2ND - HUBERDEAU (22) / JOHANSEN (25) / McCANN (19)

3RD - BAERTSCHI (22) / HORVAT (20) / HANSEN (29)

1D - EDLER (29) / TANEV (25)

2D - HAMONIC (24) / SBISA (25)

I like THIS line-up going into next season MUCH better...age-wise anyways.

 

Thank you for this. I was thinking about this exact topic yesterday and wondering what an age-related chart of the Canucks would look like. I agree with the goal and ideal that you've articulated. Of course the problem is trying to achieve it when you can't give up first round picks and have few assets with value.

[John Tortorella]

12 hours ago, dura_mater said:

Had to login just so I could LOL at this.

I agree with him. A lifelong canucks fan who is already proven at nhl is > the prospect who has no attachment to the city. 

[chickenman92]

On December 17, 2015 at 11:40 AM, BaerOxHitman said:

Vrbata Higgins and a 2nd will not get Huberdeau.

Clearly  he doesn't know that's the package for Crosby

[JeremyCuddles]

On December 17, 2015 at 11:20 AM, homersexual said:

Don't forget that we can get McDavid for Cracknell.

Yeah, maybe if we throw in Vey and a 1st.

[ABNuck]

5 hours ago, chickenman92 said:

Clearly  he doesn't know that's the package for Crosby

You do realize that for each of the players mentioned that we COULD reasonably obtain, the selling GM has his back against the wall? This lowers a player's value on the open market...anytime there's a caveat on a player (if you need evidence just look at the Schneider, Luongo and Kesler deals...we were handcuffed for various reasons to be able to procure a heftier return for each of them) the return will be significantly lower.

Florida is in deep doodoo with their cap...out of 29 players who have suited up for the Cats this year, 1/2 are free agents this upcoming summer...and of those the majority (9 of 14) are RFA's who, generally speaking, typically receive pay raises from their previous contracts. So either Dale Tallon sells off a player or 2 and fills the void with some add'l UFA's that he can walk away from (typical rentals) or he loses about half his RFA's (NHL RFA's by the way...not AHL RFA's) because he can't afford to pay them, and fills his team half up with journeyman career AHL'ers. There's a cost to be paid with so many high quality draftees...and sooner or later they'll want significant cash, so you can't keep them all.

[Baggins]

On 2015-12-17 at 10:40 AM, BaerOxHitman said:

Vrbata Higgins and a 2nd will not get Huberdeau.

In what world?

[Baggins]

On 2015-12-18 at 8:27 PM, ABNuck said:

It's almost exactly what Tallon said he's looking for...almost exactly. So explain to me why not (other than just your opinion)?

When did Talon say he was looking for an aging checker and a rental?

[dura_mater]

14 hours ago, John Tortorella said:

I agree with him. A lifelong canucks fan who is already proven at nhl is > the prospect who has no attachment to the city. 

Yeah but you're John Tortorella, your opinion doesn't count

[ABNuck]

12 hours ago, Baggins said:

When did Talon say he was looking for an aging checker and a rental?

It was on Prime Time Sports evening of DEC 10th:

"Tallon jokes that he could use a 40-goal scorer, but some 30-goal guys on weak teams and/or expiring contracts might be available come February.

Potential trade targets for the Panthers could include Eric Staal, Radim Vrbata, Jeff Skinner, Loui Eriksson, and Jiri Hudler — all of whom have at least one 30-goal season under their belt."