Bo Horvat | #53 | C

[Canucks1219]

But he doesn't have 10-15 games. Benning's interview indicates that the management group will make a decision after 9 games, so Bo has 4 games left to convince the management group.

https://soundcloud.com/team-radio-interviews/jim-benning-with-jeff-paterson-november-12 @ 5:22

After tomorrow vs Arizona (game #6), we have about 5 days before the back-to-backs vs Edmonton and Anaheim. Vrbata is supposedly good for tomorrow. Kassian and Dorsett have started skating. It's possible that, by the time we face Edmonton, we have our regular roster ready. I think Bo will get the game vs Edmonton to give an extra day off for one of Dorsett or Kassian (barring no additional injuries), then is scratched for the game vs Anaheim.

From then on, it might be only when we have injuries that Bo slides into the lineup, and he'll have 2 more games before the 9-game benchmark where Benning said he will make his decision on.

Something I haven't seen mentioned much (if at all) about sitting Horvat out a couple games -- something I think should probably happen -- is that the more he sits, the more he is out of game-mode. It sounds obvious, but how can we expect Horvat to really show what he is capable of in few games when he is constantly taking lengthy breaks from game-action? We're basically asking him to get himself back up to speed and be better than "okay" each time he plays. I'm not sure that makes for an entirely fair evaluation, though we may not have any other choice.

Again, I think he shouldn't be in the lineup every time, but don't know if dragging out his 9th game by scratching him often makes for a true evaluation of what he is capable of providing.

[Guest Dasein]

Something I haven't seen mentioned much (if at all) about sitting Horvat out a couple games -- something I think should probably happen -- is that the more he sits, the more he is out of game-mode. It sounds obvious, but how can we expect Horvat to really show what he is capable of in few games when he is constantly taking lengthy breaks from game-action? We're basically asking him to get himself back up to speed and be better than "okay" each time he plays. I'm not sure that makes for an entirely fair evaluation, though we may not have any other choice.

Again, I think he shouldn't be in the lineup every time, but don't know if dragging out his 9th game by scratching him often makes for a true evaluation of what he is capable of providing.

Yeah it's definitely best to give the 9 games straight to give him the best shot at showing what he's got. But WD makes lineup decisions and the only thing he's concerned about as the NHL coach is winning. So if we are at full health next week, I think Bo would be the odd man out.

If we drag the 9 games out, it probably means that Bo is going to be sent down, but we are extending his tryout so he can stay with the big club for the experience.

[aGENT]

But he doesn't have 10-15 games. Benning's interview indicates that the management group will make a decision after 9 games, so Bo has 4 games left to convince the management group.

And I'm saying that even if he isn't putting up points every few games by that 9th game, if he's still doing the right things and getting offensive opportunities he's still our best option at 4C. I then expect him to settle in more and form some chemistry with his line mates.

Frankly, as long as his play doesn't drop off I'd be surprised to see him sent down.

[Canucks1219]

Yeah it's definitely best to give the 9 games straight to give him the best shot at showing what he's got. But WD makes lineup decisions and the only thing he's concerned about as the NHL coach is winning. So if we are at full health next week, I think Bo would be the odd man out.

If we drag the 9 games out, it probably means that Bo is going to be sent down, but we are extending his tryout so he can stay with the big club for the experience.

Yeah, I don't see him getting straight games, but also can't see how he will show enough in 5 spread games to hold onto a spot.

[Guest Dasein]

And I'm saying that even if he isn't putting up points every few games by that 9th game, if he's still doing the right things and getting offensive opportunities he's still our best option at 4C. I then expect him to settle in more and form some chemistry with his line mates.

Frankly, as long as his play doesn't drop off I'd be surprised to see him sent down.

He definitely is not. Bo is taking an average of 10 draws per game - that is not significant. Bo winning 5 or 6 of 10 per night (his average is 53.8%) instead of Vey winning 4 of 10 (averaging exactly 40%) is not a drastic difference.

What matters is the amount of offensive chances that Vey can generate vs what Bo can generate. In addition, Vey plays on the PP - Bo is only good for the EV minutes (which is why he has only cracked the 10 minute mark once in a blowout loss and is averaging 8:38 TOI). Vey at 40FO% but creating more offensive chances is much more valuable to this team than Bo at 53FO% but creating less offense. They are out there for 10 draws - winning 1 or 2 more is not significant.

If we send Bo down and injuries occur, we can call up Lain, who is just as good on faceoffs, more mature and at 6'6", more imposing physically, to play 8 minutes per game that Bo does.

Yeah, I don't see him getting straight games, but also can't see how he will show enough in 5 spread games to hold onto a spot.

That's the thing. He's not going to make the team if he's scratched when everyone's healthy. I think that would be a pretty clear implication - if you can't crack the lineup when at full health, you're not staying up as a 19-year-old.

If they spread out the next 4 games, it would seem that he's just here for the experience before going to the WJC and then returning to London.

Edited November 14, 2014 by Dasein

[aGENT]

He definitely is not. Bo is taking an average of 10 draws per game - that is not significant. Bo winning 5 or 6 of 10 per night (his average is 53.8%) instead of Vey winning 4 of 10 (averaging exactly 40%) is not a drastic difference.

What matters is the amount of offensive chances that Vey can generate vs what Bo can generate. In addition, Vey plays on the PP - Bo is only good for the EV minutes (which is why he has only cracked the 10 minute mark once in a blowout loss and is averaging 8:38 TOI). Vey at 40FO% but creating more offensive chances is much more valuable to this team than Bo at 53FO% but creating less offense. They are out there for 10 draws - winning 1 or 2 more is not significant.

If we send Bo down and injuries occur, we can call up Lain, who is just as good on faceoffs, more mature and at 6'6", more imposing physically, to play 8 minutes per game that Bo does.

Yeah that's all assuming he doesn't improve. Or that the chances he's ALREADY CREATING don't start to go in.

Also Vey doesn't likely come out of the lineup even if Bo's in. He can still create offense on a higher line. In fact it's likely that Vey would create even more with better line mates.

Keeping Bo let's us have a far more balanced lineup IMO and better depth.

How many points does Vey have even strength while playing 4C...?

Edited November 14, 2014 by J.R.

[Guest Dasein]

Yeah that's all assuming he doesn't improve. Or that the chances he's ALREADY CREATING don't start to go in.

Also Vey doesn't likely come out of the lineup even if Bo's in. He can still create offense on a higher line. In fact it's likely that Vey would create even more with better line mates.

Keeping Bo let's us have a far more balanced lineup IMO and better depth.

How many points does Vey have even strength while playing 4C...?

And Vey's not going to improve? Vey is already better and improving.

It doesn't have to be Vey, no. But the other guys are playing well. Bo just hasn't done enough to warrant moving Vey to the wing and knocking off a guy like Hansen or Dorsett.

Vey has 1G5A6P aside from his 3 PP goals. Not bad.

Edited November 14, 2014 by Dasein

[aGENT]

And Vey's not going to improve? Vey is already better and improving.

It doesn't have to be Vey, no. But the other guys are playing well. Bo just hasn't done enough to warrant moving Vey to the wing and knocking off a guy like Hansen or Dorsett.

Vey has 1G5A6P aside from his 3 PP goals. Not bad.

I never said Vey wasn't going to improve either.

My point is, it's tit for tat. Vey might get a point or two more every 5-10 games than Bo would playing 4C (once he gets going) but how many points does he cost us by losing more draws and not being as defensively sound? You can't trumpet out "it's only 1-2 draws a game" and then completely ignore the flip side of that.

Horvat's also had to acclimate to the NHL on an injury filled team with rotating wingers. As I said his first 5-10 games will be needed to find his footing and (hopefully with a healthy lineup) build chemistry. After that IMO he's a better option at 4C than Vey as he'll likely give up little offense in a 4C role and is superior on D and draws.

Vey looks better on the 2nd or 3rd line wings IMO where his natural offensive talents are far more likely to shine and he'll be playing with guys like Burrows/Richardson etc who will cover for his lesser D.

Edited November 14, 2014 by J.R.

[Guest Dasein]

My point is, it's tit for tat. Vey might get a point or two more every 5-10 games than Bo would playing 4C (once he gets going) but how many points does he cost us by losing more draws and not being as defensively sound? You can't trumpet out "it's only 1-2 draws a game" and then completely ignore the flip side of that.

Horvat's also had to acclimate to the NHL on an injury filled team with rotating wingers. As I said his first 5-10 games will be needed to find his footing and (hopefully with a healthy lineup) build chemistry. After that IMO he's a better option at 4C than Vey as he'll likely give up little offense in a 4C role and is superior on D and draws.

Vey looks better on the 2nd or 3rd line wings IMO where his natural offensive talents are far more likely to shine and he'll be playing with guys like Burrows/Richardson etc who will cover for his lesser D.

Not many. Exactly - it's going to be 1 draw usually (since Bo is only 53%) and sometimes 2. And Vey will rarely get a defensive zone faceoff unless it is on an icing. Those are rare situations I am okay with.

And how great is it having the luxury of having your 4C slot up in a top 9 winger role when injuries occur? Like I said, Lain can do everything Bo has been doing in the past few games. Vey is our 4C when we are at full health, and when we're not, we have the luxury of calling someone up and slotting Vey in a top 9 role.

[YOWnuxFAN]

I can't see him staying at this pace. He didn't do a whole lot in pre-season, didn't do anything in Utica, and is pointless more than half-way into his 9-game tryout. He's been given every opportunity to prove himself and while he hasn't been "bad" he hasn't stood out either. Hopefully the right decision is made for his developement. It's better to be overripe than under developed.

[TGokou]

Can anyone comment as to a scenario where we keep him up the full year, thus burning a year off his ELC followed by sending him down to the AHL the following year? Will he have to clear waivers and if he is playing the second year in the AHL does that also burn an additional year off his ELC?

[2SKATES1STICK]

Will he have to clear waivers and if he is playing the second year in the AHL does that also burn an additional year off his ELC?

no, and yes.

[Guest Dasein]

Can anyone comment as to a scenario where we keep him up the full year, thus burning a year off his ELC followed by sending him down to the AHL the following year? Will he have to clear waivers and if he is playing the second year in the AHL does that also burn an additional year off his ELC?

If he's not good enough for the NHL next year, I fail to see why we would keep him in the NHL this year when he can be sent to the OHL to develop more.

[aGENT]

Not many. Exactly - it's going to be 1 draw usually (since Bo is only 53%) and sometimes 2. And Vey will rarely get a defensive zone faceoff unless it is on an icing. Those are rare situations I am okay with.

And how great is it having the luxury of having your 4C slot up in a top 9 winger role when injuries occur? Like I said, Lain can do everything Bo has been doing in the past few games. Vey is our 4C when we are at full health, and when we're not, we have the luxury of calling someone up and slotting Vey in a top 9 role.

It's not just faceoffs. He's not as sound defensively. Despite those ~0.33ppg ES

Vey has, he's still -3

We also need more than JUST Richardson for defensive zone faceoffs.

Horvat's our best option at 4C imo.

[RunningWild]

I'm not sure how anyone could say "he was given every opportunity with the Canucks in this 5 game try out. It's hogwash anyway you look at it. He was not given a chance, period.

- He's played more than 9 min TOI in exactly 1 game this yr. Been given exactly 2 seconds of PP time, 1:40 of PK time.

- He's taken 52 face-offs - exactly 6 of them while starting in the offensive zone. And won 65% of the defensive zone draws he's taken....... which by the way is the best % of any Canucks centre by a country mile.

- He's been on the ice for exactly 1 goal against.

- He has the 6th best corsi relative to his teammates (forwards only), despite starting the 'team lowest' 33% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

- He's been given, by far, the worst wingers on the team every single game.

- Only Vrbata, Hank and Dank have fewer shots against/per ice time. *Keep in mind those 3 players start 55+% of shifts startin in the ozone. Horvat is 33%*

This is exactly the type of player that has earned more ice time. You couldn't write the script better. Yet after his best game of the season against the defending Cup champions, he's been given less than 8 min each of the last 2 games. And been demoted to the 4th line with scrubs.

They've in now way given him any type of opportunity to succeed, other than placing his nameplate in the locker room. I honestly believe this is another horse and pony show from the Canucks brass to make the fan base happy, "give the top prospect a few games to make the fans happy". There's no other way to explain the way they're using (or not using him). I won't explain in detail how he's currently a better option than Richardson or Matthias (cause he is an the #'s prove it). But I will say, send him back to Jr. where he can play big minutes instead of being wasted in Van and being trotted out as a prize to the fan base.

[Guest Dasein]

It's not just faceoffs. He's not as sound defensively. Despite those ~0.33ppg ES

Vey has, he's still -3

We also need more than JUST Richardson for defensive zone faceoffs.

Horvat's our best option at 4C imo.

I fail to see how Horvat is our best option when what he does could be easily replaced with Lain at this point.

Vey is a -3, but Richardson is -6, Hansen -5, Kassian -4, Dorsett -2, and Matthias -10. DeFazio, Jensen and Horvat are +/-0. Tom Sestito is a +1. Our regular bottom 6 forwards gets scored on, yes. What's your point?

We do have more than Richardson for the defensive zone faceoffs. Henrik and Bonino take a bulk of them as well. Horvat taking 10 draws overall isn't going to free them up all that much.

Of his 8 draws vs OTT - Bo took 4 in the offensive zone and 2 in the defensive zone (4-3 OTW).

Of his 8 draws vs ANA - Bo took 2 in the offensive zone and 2 in the defensive zone (2-1 SOW).

Of his 20 draws vs LAK - Bo took none in the offensive zone and 6 in the defensive zone (5-1 L).

Of his 4 draws vs SJS - Bo took 1 in the offensive zone and 1 in the defensive zone (3-2 W).

Of his 12 draws vs COL - Bo took 1 in the offensive zone and 5 in the defensive zone (5-2 W).

So on average, he takes about 3 defensive zone draws per game. Not exactly relieving anyone.

I'm not sure how anyone could say "he was given every opportunity with the Canucks in this 5 game try out. It's hogwash anyway you look at it. He was not given a chance, period.

- He's played more than 9 min TOI in exactly 1 game this yr. Been given exactly 2 seconds of PP time, 1:40 of PK time.

- He's taken 52 face-offs - exactly 6 of them while starting in the offensive zone. And won 65% of the defensive zone draws he's taken....... which by the way is the best % of any Canucks centre by a country mile.

- He's been on the ice for exactly 1 goal against.

- He has the 6th best corsi relative to his teammates (forwards only), despite starting the 'team lowest' 33% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

- He's been given, by far, the worst wingers on the team every single game.

- Only Vrbata, Hank and Dank have fewer shots against/per ice time. *Keep in mind those 3 players start 55+% of shifts startin in the ozone. Horvat is 33%*

This is exactly the type of player that has earned more ice time. You couldn't write the script better. Yet after his best game of the season against the defending Cup champions, he's been given less than 8 min each of the last 2 games. And been demoted to the 4th line with scrubs.

He's not supposed to be given every opportunity to make this team. He has to earn it.

Firstly, a little mistake - Bo took 8 offensive zone faceoffs, not 6. Still, it's a very small number of o-zone starts.

Secondly, 65% on 16 total defensive draws is not significant, and as the sample size increases, his numbers will drop. Also, I doubt he would sustain those numbers while taking the number of draws Henrik, Bonino or Richardson has had to take against the competition they face. Basically, Bo is being sheltered (I don't know why though, since he did fairly well vs LAK in that one game - this is puzzling to me as well). And something is off in your numbers again because you can't get 65% out of 16 draws (10/16 yields 62.5% and 11/16 yields 68.75%).

Thirdly, Corsi might have to do with Bo not playing much in the 3rd or when games matter and the score is tight.

And If you think Bo will maintain his low "shots against per ice-time" if he's given top 9 minutes you are only fooling yourself. Also, what do you expect the 4th line center to get - Daniel and Vrbata? The classic argument for a prospect that his linemates aren't good enough is getting old. He needs to do better to deserve better linemates.

Lastly, you are making all these assumptions based on limited game action and interpreting statistics positively to construct your view even though the sample size is clearly too small to make an argument for one way or another.

Willie Desjardins sees this kid go up against Henrik, Bonino and Richardson every day in practice.

They probably face off against each other, defend, attack, etc. If Bo excelled in practice, I'm sure Desjardins would have given him a shot. The lines are based on performance during games and during practice.

You don't try things out in a game when you don't see it in practice. Bo is probably not exactly killing it out there against our top 9 centers in practice. If he was beating Richardson day in and day out in practice, I am 100% sure we would see Bo on the 3rd line by now. So, when you see him on the 4th line, that's where he should be based on everything WD has seen so far.

That being said, Bo is not by any means looking out of place. He's holding his own well in the limited ice time he gets. I, too, wonder what he would look like if he wasn't getting sheltered like he was in the past two games. Perhaps he would have been burned and we would have lost those games - or perhaps he would have gotten a goal or assisted on one to get us a W.

Bo has 4 games remaining before management will make a decision on him. Let's see if he can break out a little and get more minutes. I think this little break after the Arizona game might help him get some more practices in and gain a little more of the coach's confidence in those practices.

Edited November 14, 2014 by Dasein

[jstewboy]

I'm not sure how anyone could say "he was given every opportunity with the Canucks in this 5 game try out. It's hogwash anyway you look at it. He was not given a chance, period.

- He's played more than 9 min TOI in exactly 1 game this yr. Been given exactly 2 seconds of PP time, 1:40 of PK time.

- He's taken 52 face-offs - exactly 6 of them while starting in the offensive zone. And won 65% of the defensive zone draws he's taken....... which by the way is the best % of any Canucks centre by a country mile.

- He's been on the ice for exactly 1 goal against.

- He has the 6th best corsi relative to his teammates (forwards only), despite starting the 'team lowest' 33% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

- He's been given, by far, the worst wingers on the team every single game.

- Only Vrbata, Hank and Dank have fewer shots against/per ice time. *Keep in mind those 3 players start 55+% of shifts startin in the ozone. Horvat is 33%*

This is exactly the type of player that has earned more ice time. You couldn't write the script better. Yet after his best game of the season against the defending Cup champions, he's been given less than 8 min each of the last 2 games. And been demoted to the 4th line with scrubs.

They've in now way given him any type of opportunity to succeed, other than placing his nameplate in the locker room. I honestly believe this is another horse and pony show from the Canucks brass to make the fan base happy, "give the top prospect a few games to make the fans happy". There's no other way to explain the way they're using (or not using him). I won't explain in detail how he's currently a better option than Richardson or Matthias (cause he is an the #'s prove it). But I will say, send him back to Jr. where he can play big minutes instead of being wasted in Van and being trotted out as a prize to the fan base.

The only word I could see is exactly

[Gaudette Celly]

They've in now way given him any type of opportunity to succeed, other than placing his nameplate in the locker room. I honestly believe this is another horse and pony show from the Canucks brass to make the fan base happy, "give the top prospect a few games to make the fans happy". There's no other way to explain the way they're using (or not using him). I won't explain in detail how he's currently a better option than Richardson or Matthias (cause he is an the #'s prove it). But I will say, send him back to Jr. where he can play big minutes instead of being wasted in Van and being trotted out as a prize to the fan base.

Which have been the others?

[Junkyard Dog]

I fail to see how Horvat is our best option when what he does could be easily replaced with Lain at this point.

I don't think Lain is any better than Horvat right now. Also both play different roles to a team.

However I also don't think we will have any room for Horvat once we are healthy. So unless WD is going to give Horvat more ice time to prove he can stay then I don't see him staying. Nobody is playing bad enough for Horvat to stay and all lines are rolling.

Sedin-Sedin-Vrbata - Great zone time, always get quality scoring chances, comes out with at least one goal almost every game. Vrbata's instant chemistry with the Sedins has helped our success.

Higgins-Bonino-Burrows - This line has really helped with the secondary scoring. They are also good in their own zone. Bonino has lived up to the expectations of a top 6 C thus far.

Matthias-Richardson-Kassian - This line seems to always get zone time and scoring chances. Even if they don't score they help build momentum.

Hansen-Vey-Dorsett - All three players play a role in our special teams(PK and PP) they also always seem to get a couple good shifts a game.

There's no room for Horvat unless one of our centers becomes injured long term by months end.

Eventually one if not two players on this roster will have moved next year. Our young players will be knocking on the doorstep.

[RunningWild]

He's not supposed to be given every opportunity to make this team. He has to earn it.

Firstly, a little mistake - Bo took 8 offensive zone faceoffs, not 6. Still, it's a very small number of o-zone starts.

Secondly, 65% on 16 total defensive draws is not significant, and as the sample size increases, his numbers will drop. Also, I doubt he would sustain those numbers while taking the number of draws Henrik, Bonino or Richardson has had to take against the competition they face. Basically, Bo is being sheltered (I don't know why though, since he did fairly well vs LAK in that one game - this is puzzling to me as well). And something is off in your numbers again because you can't get 65% out of 16 draws (10/16 yields 62.5% and 11/16 yields 68.75%).

Thirdly, Corsi might have to do with Bo not playing much in the 3rd or when games matter and the score is tight.

And If you think Bo will maintain his low "shots against per ice-time" if he's given top 9 minutes you are only fooling yourself. Also, what do you expect the 4th line center to get - Daniel and Vrbata? The classic argument for a prospect that his linemates aren't good enough is getting old. He needs to do better to deserve better linemates.

Lastly, you are making all these assumptions based on limited game action and interpreting statistics positively to construct your view even though the sample size is clearly too small to make an argument for one way or another.

Willie Desjardins sees this kid go up against Henrik, Bonino and Richardson every day in practice.

They probably face off against each other, defend, attack, etc. If Bo excelled in practice, I'm sure Desjardins would have given him a shot. The lines are based on performance during games and during practice.

You don't try things out in a game when you don't see it in practice. Bo is probably not exactly killing it out there against our top 9 centers in practice. If he was beating Richardson day in and day out in practice, I am 100% sure we would see Bo on the 3rd line by now. So, when you see him on the 4th line, that's where he should be based on everything WD has seen so far.

That being said, Bo is not by any means looking out of place. He's holding his own well in the limited ice time he gets. I, too, wonder what he would look like if he wasn't getting sheltered like he was in the past two games. Perhaps he would have been burned and we would have lost those games - or perhaps he would have gotten a goal or assisted on one to get us a W.

Bo has 4 games remaining before management will make a decision on him. Let's see if he can break out a little and get more minutes. I think this little break after the Arizona game might help him get some more practices in and gain a little more of the coach's confidence in those practices.

And my point was that he earned it.

And It was 6 ozone draws: Link Also my #'s aren't off, it's called rounding. He took 14 D zone draws, won 9.

Of course Horvat isn't taking the # of draws the other centres are - cause he wasn't given the opportunity. Which was my point. So what you evaluate is what you have, small sample sizes.

How does his corsi have do with him not getting TOI in the certain periods, or when game his close? His corsi rel is good, that would indicate they would want/need him in those situations. But they don't, which was my point.

You are assuming his SA/60 will go up if his TOI does. There's no indicator of that, that's just a guess. is SA/60 is relative to teams TOI. We won't know unless we see him play more. So perhaps you are fooling yourself into believing your assumptions are fact.

Plenty of prospects get decent line mates, even on 9 game tryouts. Draisaitl in EDM is a good example for this season (Perron,Purcell are his most common linemates. It's not even an argument that's players line mates influence their play/advanced stats. All you have to do is take a look at WOWYs.

I am not making any assumptions. There are advanced stats websites, which I've used to provide the data. I've voiced my opinion about how he's being treated despite a good showing in 5 games.

We all realize he's only played 5 hockey games thus far, which I outlined above.

You can talk about what you 'think' is going on in Wilies mind. That's fine, but that's more assumption than anything I've written. I was simply posting some facts about Horvats play this far, relaying that they are good #'s and wondering why they aren't using him. Given the dog and pony show this summer about doing everything to make the fans happy, I assumed they were giving Horvat 9 games as apart of that. Cause it they were serious, his early #'s would indicate he's ready for more opportunity.

Edited November 14, 2014 by RunningWild