Selke Trophy finalists unveiled

[Moonshinefe]

On 4/22/2017 at 1:01 PM, -AJ- said:

I just did an in-depth look at the statistics. Kesler's year was heavily overrated based on what I found. Koivu had a decent year, so he's not the worse candidate. But by far the best candidate is Patrice Bergeron. I looked at 35 different players and Bergeron's consistency across several defensive stats is incredible. If he doesn't run away with this award, it'll be criminal.

Unfortunately it seems like the Selke is more a popularity contest these days amongst centers who happen to be good defensively. I totally agree it should be Bergeron's though.

[Moonshinefe]

Does anyone else feel like the Selke has gone the way of the Norris? The Norris massively favours offensive d-men ironically despite being the top defenceman award, but whoever gets the most points wins. Likewise, the Selke tends to be who was good defensively but still scored many points for the centermen. It seems silly.

[-AJ-]

7 hours ago, Moonshinefe said:

Does anyone else feel like the Selke has gone the way of the Norris? The Norris massively favours offensive d-men ironically despite being the top defenceman award, but whoever gets the most points wins. Likewise, the Selke tends to be who was good defensively but still scored many points for the centermen. It seems silly.

It definitely seems that there's a somewhat high standard of offense to be nominated for the Selke these days. Gone are the days of Bob Gainey or Guy Carbonneau winning the award.

[oldnews]

Bergeron is great and deserving every year, but in fairness to other guys, his role/deployment shifted this year.  He was at 54.4% offensive zone starts this year, where he is typically well under 50% with outstanding underlying numbers nevertheless.  So his corsi this year is very high, but it is also a bit misleading relative to previous years with his deployment shifting towards more opportune minutes this season.

Bergeron's 65 takeaways and +42 turnover differential was unreal though, as was 60.1% in the faceoff circle.  47 blocks, 54 hits.

Kesler by comparison had 22 takeaways (and was -17).

 

Kesler on the other hand was at 33.3% offensive zone starts and his corsi was 51.3% - that's pretty impressive and imo, moreso relative to Bergeron.  75 blocks, 146 hits. 57.4% faceoffs.

 

Koivu had 35.8% ozone starts and a 49.7% corsi.  39 takeaways (+11), 55.2% faceoffs, 65 blocks, 32 hits.

 

Imo that's a tough call between Kesler and Bergeron - Kesler playing harder minutes with arguably better underlying numbers considering his deployment - with more grit in his game (with the intangible of driving people fn nuts) - and more production than Bergeron in in less opportune minutes.  I think Bergeron might be the best two way player in the game, but this might be a year where Kesler should take this award.

 

Another guy that is under-rated imo and rarely referenced in the discussion is Mikael Backlund.

35.6% offensive zone starts and an extremely impressive 54.7% corsi.    22 goals, 31 assists, 57 takeaways (+8), 41 blocks, 55 hits.  Where he is not as strong is in the faceoff circle (48.1%) - but aside from that, his underlying numbers, and production in context are arguably as good as any of the three candidates.

[canuck73_3]

22 hours ago, oldnews said:

Bergeron is great and deserving every year, but in fairness to other guys, his role/deployment shifted this year.  He was at 54.4% offensive zone starts this year, where he is typically well under 50% with outstanding underlying numbers nevertheless.  So his corsi this year is very high, but it is also a bit misleading relative to previous years with his deployment shifting towards more opportune minutes this season.

Bergeron's 65 takeaways and +42 turnover differential was unreal though, as was 60.1% in the faceoff circle.  47 blocks, 54 hits.

Kesler by comparison had 22 takeaways (and was -17).

 

Kesler on the other hand was at 33.3% offensive zone starts and his corsi was 51.3% - that's pretty impressive and imo, moreso relative to Bergeron.  75 blocks, 146 hits. 57.4% faceoffs.

 

Koivu had 35.8% ozone starts and a 49.7% corsi.  39 takeaways (+11), 55.2% faceoffs, 65 blocks, 32 hits.

 

Imo that's a tough call between Kesler and Bergeron - Kesler playing harder minutes with arguably better underlying numbers considering his deployment - with more grit in his game (with the intangible of driving people fn nuts) - and more production than Bergeron in in less opportune minutes.  I think Bergeron might be the best two way player in the game, but this might be a year where Kesler should take this award.

 

Another guy that is under-rated imo and rarely referenced in the discussion is Mikael Backlund.

35.6% offensive zone starts and an extremely impressive 54.7% corsi.    22 goals, 31 assists, 57 takeaways (+8), 41 blocks, 55 hits.  Where he is not as strong is in the faceoff circle (48.1%) - but aside from that, his underlying numbers, and production in context are arguably as good as any of the three candidates.

The cause for the shift in Bergeron's deployment was because Boston was loading up and relying on him more for offensive production they had some rough stretches when it came to scoring. 

 

Bergeron did have the most consistent overall defensive stats though as alluded to in an earlier post. 

[oldnews]

18 minutes ago, canuck73_3 said:

The cause for the shift in Bergeron's deployment was because Boston was loading up and relying on him more for offensive production they had some rough stretches when it came to scoring. 

 

Bergeron did have the most consistent overall defensive stats though as alluded to in an earlier post. 

It depends what you mean by that.

Having the highest corsi (61.1%) doesn't necessarily mean he has the best defensive stats.  When you factor in that he had 21.1% higher ozone starts than Kesler, that has to be factored into their 'possession' (actually, shot attempt differential) stats - and it becomes far less clear whose underlying numbers were actually better.

In addition, it is easier to win faceoffs in the attacking zone, so again, you have to factor that in when you compare Bergeron's 2.7% advantage in the faceoff circle - he took a whole lot more draws in the ozone than Kesler did.

While  Bergeron had a better turnover differential, Kesler had stronger grit statistics.

 

When you get down to it, this is the Selke trophy - which is awarded to the best defensive forward.  The fact is that Kesler played a far more exclusively shutdown role this year than Bergeron did.  Kesler also outscored Bergeron in those harder minutes.

 

I'm a big advocate of Bergeron - have been pumping his tires for years - and on the other hand am not all that fond of Kesler - but imo when you break this down fairly and 'objectively' (as much as that's possible) the arrow points to Kesler for a change (will probably go to Bergeron again) - but  I think Kesler should probably take this award this year.

 

[canuck73_3]

20 minutes ago, oldnews said:

It depends what you mean by that.

Having the highest corsi (61.1%) doesn't necessarily mean he has the best defensive stats.  When you factor in that he had 21.1% higher ozone starts than Kesler, that has to be factored into their 'possession' (actually, shot attempt differential) stats - and it becomes far less clear whose underlying numbers were actually better.

In addition, it is easier to win faceoffs in the attacking zone, so again, you have to factor that in when you compare Bergeron's 2.7% advantage in the faceoff circle - he took a whole lot more draws in the ozone than Kesler did.

While  Bergeron had a better turnover differential, Kesler had stronger grit statistics.

 

When you get down to it, this is the Selke trophy - which is awarded to the best defensive forward.  The fact is that Kesler played a far more exclusively shutdown role this year than Bergeron did.  Kesler also outscored Bergeron in those harder minutes.

 

I'm a big advocate of Bergeron - have been pumping his tires for years - and on the other hand am not all that fond of Kesler - but imo when you break this down fairly and 'objectively' (as much as that's possible) the arrow points to Kesler for a change (will probably go to Bergeron again) - but  I think Kesler should probably take this award this year.

 

It's definitely the closest race for the selke  this year then any other that's for sure.

[CanadianRugby]

No Sutter?  I was told by CDC he's like Toews when we traded for him. 

 

As much as I hate him I'd give it to Kes.  

[edler rocks]

Voted Koivu but after reading the writeups I think Kesler will get it.