In The Cap World With A Cap Problem.

[Kalarian]

Good conversation. 

 

[Junkyard Dog]

13 hours ago, Drakrami said:

So what do you think a 70 point defensemen will get? If Hughes keeps up his production, we are looking at 5.5mil per year minimum. Pettersson, 9million minimum. We will also have to give Gaudette/Virtanen a raise to around 2.5mil each. We will have to re-sign Demko to a bridge that's another 3.5mil. Not to mention our defense lineup likes bare 2 years from now with Edler and Tanev getting old. That 16 million you are talking about doesn't look enough, does it? And I am just talking about minimums here. If any player holds out and requests more, then we are in for some fun. 

When you look back on the history of young promising D I can't really find any young ones that signed monster high cap contracts after their ELC. Sergachec MaCovy. Sure he's great offensively but we've sheltered him that way. He isn't used defensively whatsoever and isn't nearly as good or reliable in that sense.

 

Well that 16 million is just in 3 years. I haven't even taken into account the contracts that expire in between that. We are in for 18 million next year to sign players and the new TV deal signed we could potentially see the cap raise a bunch.

 

Not to mention the fact that we will likely have more youth inserted to take up some of these roles guys like Leivo, Beagle, Sutter, Pearson, etc take up.

 

The only concern really is the D since we might have to sign another top 4 one when Edler is gone. Forward wise we are set up pretty good. All our tweeners right now will expire as our young guys need new contracts and we will likely have some forwards ready to make the jump on cheaper contracts.

[Junkyard Dog]

12 hours ago, IBatch said:

5.5  on the low side - part of it will also have to do with what Dahlin, Makar and Heiskanen get and where QH fits in that scheme - good post. 

 

He's not getting Werenksi - McAvoy type money; even on a bridge unless his play drops down to their level.   He's playing like a superstar defenseman and those get paid, even if it's less than EP it won't be much less if keeps it up.  More then BB for sure if he keeps it up.  The two could easily eat up all the 16 million you referred to in another post leaving virtually nothing for the remaining guys.   Markstrom would help, as would LE sent packing but even one year of his salary will cost a first (see Marlaeu) and will come at a cost.  If JM is at his highest and we could recover a first as a rental then do it, if it's a Lack like return still do it.  Unless other guys can get traded to clear space and the cap goes way up, this team can't re-sign everyone.   The OP is might be a tad over anxious about it - but he's actually right to be concerned. 

Offensively yeah. But he's being sheltered and used specifically offensively. He isn't a superstar in his own zone, he doesn't get utilized defensively as much as superstar defenseman do. He isn't a physical presence. All of these factors will play a major role in his next deal. Complete superstar D get monster deals sooner than later. Quinn will probably sign a bridge deal initially like Mac, Serg

 

Like I said in 3 years time is when we get 16 million free in four guys without accounting a lot more we get in between then and toppled with the fact that we have young guys(forwards mainly) in the system that can come take up roles soon. Hoglander, Lind, Madden, Pod. We are set up pretty well forward wise cap wise.

 

My main concern is D because we really need the young guys to step up the next couple seasons or we have to sign a FA to replace Edler.

[IBatch]

13 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Offensively yeah. But he's being sheltered and used specifically offensively. He isn't a superstar in his own zone, he doesn't get utilized defensively as much as superstar defenseman do. He isn't a physical presence. All of these factors will play a major role in his next deal. Complete superstar D get monster deals sooner than later. Quinn will probably sign a bridge deal initially like Mac, Serg

 

Like I said in 3 years time is when we get 16 million free in four guys without accounting a lot more we get in between then and toppled with the fact that we have young guys(forwards mainly) in the system that can come take up roles soon. Hoglander, Lind, Madden, Pod. We are set up pretty well forward wise cap wise.

 

My main concern is D because we really need the young guys to step up the next couple seasons or we have to sign a FA to replace Edler.

Perhaps - like I said it all depends how he plays - if the level drops or perhaps even if it improves.  To be clearer he's playing like a rookie superstar defenseman given the history and the company he's around.  EK got 7.5 and  even he didn't launch his career the same way, plus that was quite awhile ago now.   If that 16 million also needs to pay EP and Hughes (does it not?) and replace guys - how much will actually be left?  

 

The team won't be able to sign both EP and Hughes to term RFA contracts - not without a lot of wheeling and dealing anyways...the money simply isn't going to be there.  Not to mention Edlers replacement.   Guys like Pearson and Roussel will need to be replaced with Leivo types (nothing wrong with that if we can find them) - this team will look a lot different to fit them both under the cap.  The year after that then LE and Luongo come off the books - which might tie JB hands when I comes to signing Hughes and EP to long term deals right away. 

 

We still need to ice enough guys to make the roster requirements and like other star rich teams we will definitely feel the pinch as far as the quality of support players and the amount of depth we can afford to run with. 

 

Edit:  I agree our defense is definitely a question mark going forward - one or both of Woo and OJ need to work out to make it easy for us - and Tree returning would be good too.

Edited December 11, 2019 by IBatch

[Junkyard Dog]

12 hours ago, IBatch said:

Perhaps - like I said it all depends how he plays - if the level drops or perhaps even if it improves.  To be clearer he's playing like a rookie superstar defenseman given the history and the company he's around.  EK got 7.5 and  even he didn't launch his career the same way, plus that was quite awhile ago now.   If that 16 million also needs to pay EP and Hughes (does it not?) and replace guys - how much will actually be left?  

 

The team won't be able to sign both EP and Hughes to term RFA contracts - not without a lot of wheeling and dealing anyways...the money simply isn't going to be there.  Not to mention Edlers replacement.   Guys like Pearson and Roussel will need to be replaced with Leivo types (nothing wrong with that if we can find them) - this team will look a lot different to fit them both under the cap.  The year after that then LE and Luongo come off the books - which might tie JB hands when I comes to signing Hughes and EP to long term deals right away. 

 

We still need to ice enough guys to make the roster requirements and like other star rich teams we will definitely feel the pinch as far as the quality of support players and the amount of depth we can afford to run with. 

 

Edit:  I agree our defense is definitely a question mark going forward - one or both of Woo and OJ need to work out to make it easy for us - and Tree returning would be good too.

Pearson Leivo Sutter and few others will be gone before the 16 million comes in. That was in 3 years from now. Still 2 before then. We might have to make a deal or two but forward wise we are set up good IMO

 

We have guys like Hoglander Pod Lind Big Mac, Palmu, Madden. Lots of potential forwards to replace these guys. They’ll all be on cheap contracts. That will help save cap till the 16 million comes in. 
 

Hughes isn’t as good in his own zone and physically as he is offensively. That toppled with the fact that he won’t have arbitration rights will greatly affect his next contract. His 2nd contract I see him getting paid. He will probably sign a Brock like deal. Petey I see signing long term because it makes the most sense for the Organization to lock him up long term.
 

Time will definitely tell but I presume that the only issue we’ll might have is on D.