[Proposal] Trade for Cernak

[IBatch]

4 minutes ago, mll said:

But they can demote him to the minors.  Would save them 625K.  He is probably more willing for a trade knowing that the alternative is being sent to the AHL.  

 

They are going to have plenty of offers for their players.  

 

Sergachev and Cernak do not have arbitration rights which helps Tampa.  

 

Question.   Because I’ve heard this a lot and have also been told that the new player coming in counts and goes against the cap .... if we or another team buries a guy in the minors - say LE since he comes up all the time, doesn’t the player coming up to fill that spot not reduce the cap savings?  With the league min at 700k, wouldn’t that mean the most a team could possibly save by doing this 300k and in most instances with AHL/NHL deals it’s often over 700?

 

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by IBatch

[Superlative]

10 minutes ago, IBatch said:

What if next year TB trades Point for a kings ransom and then offer sheets EP right back?

Thats honestly true. If Tb can win it all this year without stammer do you ever think they try and trade him they could get alot back and a significant amount of cap space. This playoffs proved they could win without him (if they end up winning the cup). However, im assuming he prob has a full no move clause.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Superlative

[BigTramFan]

2 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Question.   Because I’ve heard this a lot and have also been told that the new player coming in counts and goes against the cap .... if we or another team buries a guy in the minors - say LE since he comes up all the time, doesn’t the player coming up to fill that spot not reduce the cap savings?  With the league min at 700k, wouldn’t that mean the most a team could possibly save by doing this 300k and in most instances with AHL/NHL deals it’s often over 700?

 

 

Yes of course. When you bury someone in the minors you just reduce their cap hit by $1.075m and create a roster space. The guy coming in to replace them carries his own cap hit, so you only save the difference between $1.075m and the new players cap hit.

 

E.g. Let's save money by burying Loui and bringing up Hoglander. LE's cap hit becomes $4.925m. Hoglander adds another $892k, so the cap saving is only $183k. 

 

But I think we'd all like to see that one!

[mll]

2 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

They can demote Coburn to the minors and save 625k but who do they replace him with on their roster for less than 625k? They are up against it.

 

If they trade Cernak they will also have 1 D less.  Rafferty at 25 has 2 NHL games experience. He's not a replacement for him either.   

 

I get that they are up against the cap.  I am just not convinced that it's on D that they are going to clear cap space.  What's their D-corps going to look like next year?   They are going to have to find a way to convince some of their Fs to waive their NTC.  

 

Their Fs can still be a strong group even after trading a couple of players.  Not the same can be said on D.  Cooper also likes to go at times with only 11 Fs + 7 Ds.  

 

[BigTramFan]

2 minutes ago, Superlative said:

Thats honestly true. If Tb can win it all this year without stammer do you ever think they try and trade him they could get alot back and a significant amount of cap space. This playoffs proved they could win without him (if they end up winning the cup). However, im assuming he prob has a full no move clause.

Do you think Stamkos with his NMC is going to agree to move from TBL just because they win the cup once? I think he will refuse to move and want to stay on to create a long legacy. And so he should, they have a great chance at doing so.

 

JB should also have Pettersson and Hughes all locked up well before they could be offer sheeted by anyone. Or at worst case he should be ready to match the highest offer.

[Superlative]

2 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

Do you think Stamkos with his NMC is going to agree to move from TBL just because they win the cup once? I think he will refuse to move and want to stay on to create a long legacy. And so he should, they have a great chance at doing so.

 

JB should also have Pettersson and Hughes all locked up well before they could be offer sheeted by anyone. Or at worst case he should be ready to match the highest offer.

Fully agree with ya. After they finishing this years re signings and free agency signings petey and hughes should have a deal done b4 next season. It be dumb to wait and take the chance

Edited September 28, 2020 by Superlative

[mll]

11 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Question.   Because I’ve heard this a lot and have also been told that the new player coming in counts and goes against the cap .... if we or another team buries a guy in the minors - say LE since he comes up all the time, doesn’t the player coming up to fill that spot not reduce the cap savings?  With the league min at 700k, wouldn’t that mean the most a team could possibly save by doing this 300k and in most instances with AHL/NHL deals it’s often over 700?

 

 

In this case it's a strategy to get him to waive his NTC - it creates some additional money to extend one of their players and opens up a roster spot for a prospect.

 

[BigTramFan]

Just now, mll said:

If they trade Cernak they will also have 1 D less.  Rafferty at 25 has 2 NHL games experience. He's not a replacement for him either.   

 

I get that they are up against the cap.  I am just not convinced that it's on D that they are going to clear cap space.  What's their D-corps going to look like next year?   They are going to have to find a way to convince some of their Fs to waive their NTC.  

 

Their Fs can still be a strong group even after trading a couple of players.  Not the same can be said on D.  Cooper also likes to go at times with only 11 Fs + 7 Ds.  

 

Yep I understand all that. But if I was a forward in that group with a NTC, I would be politely saying "no way" to any trade proposals.

 

And I am NOT saying Rafferty is some kind of Cernak replacement for TBL! At most he would play that role that Shattenkirk was playing for them.

 

It will be interesting to see what they can do.

 

[BigTramFan]

24 minutes ago, D-Money said:

I could see Tampa waiving Johnson if he won’t agree voluntarily. They need space, and he’s been buried in their lineup of late.

 

Detroit would jump all over that, if they did. 

OK this is something I hadn't considered. Makes sense now. Waive a valuable player that some other team would definitely pick up off waivers (even at a high salary). So TBL could get rid of someone like TJ, they just won't get any assets in return.

[mll]

37 minutes ago, Superlative said:

I fully agree TBL could be tryna get a better package for him then a 2nd. What if we offer sheet both serg and cern in hopes we get one. 

 

Canucks don't have a 1st or a 2nd round pick this draft.  The same pick can't be used twice in case both offer sheets are accepted.

 

In an offer sheet the picks have to be available at the upcoming draft and it has to be the team's own picks.  It's only on offer sheets with multiple picks from the same round that it can be spread over an additional year.  4x 1st rounds can be done over 5 years rather than just 4.  

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by mll

[Superlative]

1 hour ago, mll said:

 

Canucks don't have a 1st or a 2nd round pick this draft.  The same pick can't be used twice in case both offer sheets are accepted.

 

In an offer sheet the picks have to be available at the upcoming draft and it has to be the team's own picks.  It's only on offer sheets with multiple picks from the same round that it can be spread over an additional year.  4x 1st rounds can be done over 5 years rather than just 4.  

 

Yeah i didnt mean at the same time i meant like offer sheet one then offer sheet the other if the first has declined. Also wouldnt we be giving up our 2021 2rd pick which we have.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Superlative

[IBatch]

23 minutes ago, Superlative said:

Thats honestly true. If Tb can win it all this year without stammer do you ever think they try and trade him they could get alot back and a significant amount of cap space. This playoffs proved they could win without him (if they end up winning the cup). However, im assuming he prob has a full no move clause.

Once Stamkos is back he essentially replaces Point.  Only TO can boast two Cs like that (Crosby and Malkin are sadly getting older)....Point for sure has the most value of the two given age.   And he’s showing what he can do with Kucherov is at least- probably more - then Stamkos (who is still a top player but injuries are mounting up).  
 

Point is on a great TB no state tax bridge deal that’s running out next season.   For sure he’s getting a 8-9 x 8 TB long term deal then - TB will have to shed another 2-2.5 to get it done with clauses.   Sucks to be a great team under the cap - but this ones going to hurt them.   Makes some sense to do a trade and sign deal for younger cheaper assets to a certain degree,  but they probably won’t be in a position to do that with Stamkos ability to stay healthy now always in question.  Sure they’d rather trade Stamkos but still have him for half a decade or so.  
 

The ED could really help them clear some space so Point should get pretty much an identical deal as Stamkos is currently on.    It’s no coincidence that three of the final four happen to be three of the four teams that hold a 10-15% cap advantage over the rest of the league.   It’s sick how much talent Dallas, TB and Vegas have on their rosters.   IF TB decided to recycle Point into picks and high end prospects I’m sure 10 teams would line up with some huge offers, even in the flat cap world. 

[mll]

5 minutes ago, Superlative said:

Yeah i didnt mean at the same time i meant like like offer sheet one then offer sheet the other if the first is declined. Also wouldnt we be giving up our 2021 2rd pick which we have.

Thanks for the correction.  The offer-sheet period opens up after the 2020 draft so 2021 picks.

 

[IBatch]

1 minute ago, mll said:

Thanks for the correction.  The offer-sheet period opens up after the 2020 draft so 2021 picks.

 

Definitely not a fan of offer sheets but only because of the angst it’s created in the past between GMs.    It’s pretty unfair really,  that a team who’s spent so much time and effort selecting their pick and developing them,  can be put over a barrel by another GM that maybe hasn’t done a great job for their team.   Just swoop in with a 2nd rounder which in no way compares to a 22 year old who’s obviously won a roster spot to deserve 4.2ish.   It made some sense pre-cap in the free market after salary disclosure because sometimes GMs just were too cheap and didn’t pay their guys properly.  
 

Case in point Quin with Nedved.   Glad that GMs don’t go this route often - and definitely understand why they would hold ill will towards it.   A second rounder 50% of the time gets to 200nhl games that’s it.   Not at all worth a player like Cernak.   Hamilton’s plethora of picks amounted to pretty much zero for Boston (first two seconds).   Media has been putting hints out that the offer sheet could come out because with flat cap teams are really in a bind.   That said because of that a lot won’t get qualified too- meaning good deals should also be available.    Going to be very interesting the next month or two ...

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, mll said:

If they trade Cernak they will also have 1 D less.  Rafferty at 25 has 2 NHL games experience. He's not a replacement for him either.   

 

I get that they are up against the cap.  I am just not convinced that it's on D that they are going to clear cap space.  What's their D-corps going to look like next year?   They are going to have to find a way to convince some of their Fs to waive their NTC.  

 

Their Fs can still be a strong group even after trading a couple of players.  Not the same can be said on D.  Cooper also likes to go at times with only 11 Fs + 7 Ds.  

 

Not sure who they can trade from their forward group.   The other thing they need to consider is who Seattle will pick in the ED...Hedman, McDonagh? Sergachev for sure .... maybe they will expose McD because at 6.75 and a NTC could be a serious cap dump for them, protect Cernak, Hedman, Serg.   Of course they will also have at least one very solid forward exposed, maybe two. That should at least help them next season signing Point plus a little for their young D’s.     I doubt any forward is going to waive their clause.  They will probably trade Kilorn - maybe with retention or just with something extra.   Still that won’t be enough but it gets them closer to where they need to be - has a modified NTC - TB better hope Detroit or OTT are on the list or it might cost them dearly. 

[mll]

5 hours ago, IBatch said:

Not sure who they can trade from their forward group.   The other thing they need to consider is who Seattle will pick in the ED...Hedman, McDonagh? Sergachev for sure .... maybe they will expose McD because at 6.75 and a NTC could be a serious cap dump for them, protect Cernak, Hedman, Serg.   Of course they will also have at least one very solid forward exposed, maybe two. That should at least help them next season signing Point plus a little for their young D’s.     I doubt any forward is going to waive their clause.  They will probably trade Kilorn - maybe with retention or just with something extra.   Still that won’t be enough but it gets them closer to where they need to be - has a modified NTC - TB better hope Detroit or OTT are on the list or it might cost them dearly. 

 

Johnson has an NTC but his role has diminished in Tampa.  He might agree to waive.  Not sure a team would take the full cap hit but the alternative is also to just buy him out.  An NTC prevents a trade but not from being waived.  As D-money was pointing out Tampa can also waive Johnson and hope for him to be picked off waivers.  

 

Killorn had a 26 goal season for a 4.5M cap hit - wouldn't expect Tampa to have to retain or add.  

 

Cirelli, Cernak and Sergachev are RFAs with no arbitration rights.  The risk is the offer sheet but the player also has to want to sign it.  Brisebois will probably have to convince them to take a bridge.

 

For the expansion would expect them to go 4Ds or give up assets like last time.  They gave up draft picks + the rights to Gusev to have Vegas draft Garrison.  Going 4Ds would have likely protect up front Stamkos (NMC), Kucherov (NMC) + Point and Cirelli.   I can't see Tampa parting with McDonagh.  He is only 1 year into his contract and Cooper is always praising him for being so reliable for them.

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by mll

[vannuck59]

Lets cut to the chase Tampa needs cheap D and forwards if you look at their pipe line of prospects they have a ton of talent ready. I think Detroit will be their trading partner to move contracts too . So you will have to pony up to get anyone good. Meaning high draft picks out, Cernak or Sergachev  will cost you a first min.  Tampa will sign Sergachev leaving Cernak . So a First and Woo to Tampa for Cernak a high price to pay but 6 foot 3 and 23 years old he would be our best right Dman. Replacing Tanev Sign for 4.5 . A offer sheet is not Jim's style and would damage future trade relations . 

[Nigerian]

5 hours ago, Monkeyking said:

I Like how everyone talk about cernak and no love for sergachev, this is a guy who still have top level pairing potential,while cernak is mostly likely will be a 2nd pairing guy or a overpay 3rd pair

Sergachev is a guy who can replace both Elder and Myers 

Future pair hugh sergachev for the next 5 + year

 

Van 

Sergachev 4-5m for 4-5y

 

Tmp

Jack rathbone 

Jordie Benn 50%retained 

2nd 2021

Sergachev is a young stud. Maybe if rathbone explodes into the scene this year MAYBE but his value isn’t as high to anyone other than the Canucks. Not a chance this deal works. 

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, mll said:

 

Johnson has an NTC but his role has diminished in Tampa.  He might agree to waive.  Not sure a team would take the full cap hit but the alternative is also to just buy him out.  An NTC prevents a trade but not from being waived.  As D-money was pointing out Tampa can also waive Johnson and hope for him to be picked off waivers.  

 

Killorn had a 26 goal season for a 4.5M cap hit - wouldn't expect Tampa to have to retain or add.  

 

Cirelli, Cernak and Sergachev are RFAs with no arbitration rights.  The risk is the offer sheet but the player also has to want to sign it.  Brisebois will probably have to convince them to take a bridge.

 

For the expansion would expect them to go 4Ds or give up assets like last time.  They gave up draft picks + the rights to Gusev to have Vegas draft Garrison.  Going 4Ds would have likely protect up front Stamkos (NMC), Kucherov (NMC) + Point and Cirelli.   I can't see Tampa parting with McDonagh.  He is only  year into his contract and Cooper is always praising him for being so reliable for them.

 

Look closer at who they have to sign this year and next.   Point is in for a huge raise.   And Killorn’s exposure to better players at 31 does make him great trade bait but can tell you he’s disappointed me in my fantasy drafts in the past ha ha.   At 4.45 he’s not terrible but not great either.    Like I said for them at least better hope Detroit or OTT or someone with enough interest.  He’s maddeningly streaky.  And TB fans/media is all over the idea of finally being able to trade him - usually good for 15 goals and 40 points - this year enough exposure to better players finally raised his stock to the point his massive term/clause contract is finally tradeable. 
 

To me it’s not much different on our team as Pearson.   Not a core player but his stock is higher then ever.   Easy choice to trade.    A dozen articles are available to read about it TB media/fans are delighted at the chance to shed his contract.   But it will still cost them.   When you can look at who else is available at 1 -2 million less .... 
 

Killorn isn’t going to get 15/40 on most teams.   Bet on it. 

 

 

[wildcam]

9 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

Everyone knows it. TBL are in cap trouble. Cap hell. Worse than cap hell!

 

I'm gonna assume that NONE of their NTC and NMC players will accept a trade to another team. Why would they? They earned the clause in their contract and they will want to stay with a contending team, even more so if they win the CUP.

 

The only players that can be traded are:

Point

Killorn (m-NTC)

Coleman

Paquette

Goodrow

 

I can't see them trading Point - he's too good. Coleman, Paquette, Goodrow are on very friendly contracts and probably can't be replaced for better value, so they won't be traded either.

 

Killorn is definitely getting traded. This leaves them with $9.78m in cap space to sign at least 8 players to fill their roster.

 

All 3 of their big name RFA's (Cirelli, Sergachev, Cernak) are going to cost them at least $4m each. They really cannot afford to pay any one of them that much, since it won't leave enough space to fill the rest of their roster.

 

I believe that TBL will look to trade these big name RFAs in return for some very good NHL players on retained salaries, so that they can fill their roster with talent at very low cost.

 

It has me wondering whether VAN has some assets that TBL could desire. What TBL need most are Dmen and bottom 6 players. They will also be looking for picks and prospects.

 

Would this trade appeal?...

 

To TBL: 

Beagle (50% retained) - $1.5m

Rafferty (50% retained) - $350k

Woo

2021 2nd round pick

 

To VAN:

Cernak (already signed to $4m x 4 years by TBL before trading)

 

 

For TBL they get some serious PK and FO firepower in Beagle for their bottom 6, plus Rafferty in their defense mix (all for only $1.85m). Woo stays in the minors and is ready in 1-2 years. Plus a 2nd rounder.

 

For VAN we get a cost controlled young Dman with mobility and size. Perfect complement to Hughes. Replacement for Tanev.

 

Will be interested to hear if you think we're paying too much, or whether you think TBL laughs and hangs up the phone...

I really like trade idea for Cernak, 23,  6'3 young and stud on defence.coming off entry level contract RFA--- 

So weird that NHL Capfriendly have no new deal on Cernak and there very up to date with any deals?? He will demand 4.5 X 4 yrs.

Deal must not be complete,  go to capFriendly ?

 

This is the type of D man Vancouver and group have to chase...

Sergachev  22, 6'3, is there other stud D man both guys if they resign will put them over cap.. 4.5 X 3 yrs 

Tampa Bay only have 5 million cap so they have to really wheel and deal before Oct 7th lots of good players to sign....

I would think a Ottawa or Detroit even Colorado will be trying to trade for either one of these young D men and they have high picks..

I know Yzerman in Detroit will be after these young D man he drafted both guys...

Edited September 28, 2020 by wildcam