VegasCanuck Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 (edited) Re-posting this from something I posted in a thread a few months ago, as a more formal discussion. I think there’s a lot of confusion around how much cap space we have moving forward. Feel free to disagree with it, but this is where I think we’re generally going. The math I did for this team at the time was based on bridge deals for Pettersson at 7.5 and Hughes on a 3 year, 6.5 million, and I've updated based on the contract that Hughes signed, and I’ve updated for where I think they will be when we get to the 2024/25 season. Names may change, but I think the numbers will be similar for anyone inserted through trades or signings etc. I’m working on the basis that the cap will rise 1 million per for the next few years, meaning that we'll have 84.5 million to play with in that season, although it’s sounding like we may have a significant jump 2024 season or before. Forwards: Pettersson - 10.5 million Per Boeser - 8 million per (likely 8 years) Horvat 7 million per (likely 8 years) Miller or Miller replacement 5 million per I'm assuming that he will eventually be pushed out by younger / cheaper player. Maybe Klimovich?? Garland 4.95 million per Dickinson 3 million per or similar player. He may be squeezed out by one of our upcoming by then at a lower cap hit. Motte 2.5 million - or similar player, I'm assuming that he will eventually be squeezed out by younger guys playing similar game Hoglander 5 million per - I'm assuming a bridge deal on this one, same as Pettersson and Hughes Podkolzin - 5 million per - I'm projecting his 2nd contract and assuming that it will likely be a bridge deal Total for Top 9 Forwards, 50.95 million Defense: OEL 7.26 million Hughes 7.75 million Rathbone 3.0 million - will sign a bridge deal, has no arbitration rights and can't get an offer sheet Defenseman who winds up replacing Juolevi 2.5 million Poolman I think will eventually be traded and replaced at similar cap hit, possibly to make room for Woo Total top 4 Defense: 20.51 Demko - 5 million - I'm assuming that we will carry one primary and a sub 1 million backup moving forward. Unless DiPietro proves he's better than Demko, DiPietro will eventually be moved for picks or prospects. I think we ride Demko at least till the end of his current contract. Total 76.46 projected 2024/25 cap hit! That leaves 8.04 million to round out the roster, not accounting for LTIR, which happens every year, or other changes. This is just my estimate, there will be trades and moves. I don't think Myers will be here till the end of his contract and it's very likely someone on my forward and defense projections will be moved to spread out cap space, the same as all competitive teams do. Look what has happened in Tampa the last few years on moving guys out to make room. I should actually save this somewhere and look back in 3 years and see how close I was. As before, go ahead and rip it to shreds Edited December 14, 2021 by VegasCanuck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
86Viking Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 OJ is with Florida, are we trading to re acquire him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasCanuck Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said: OJ is with Florida, are we trading to re acquire him? Good catch. As I said, I wrote this before the start of the season, just as training camp was starting actually. Have updated to reflect someone replacing OJ, but for around the same cap hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Thanks for increasing my salary to $10.5 million!! Much appreciated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 $8 million isn’t a lot for 4 more forwards and 3 more defencemen including a top 4 guy. With an inflated salary cap is inflated salaries. Set aside $5-6 million for the top 4 D and we still have to move a high priced forward or two in order to fill in the rest of the spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 17 hours ago, VegasCanuck said: Re-posting this from something I posted in a thread a few months ago, as a more formal discussion. I think there’s a lot of confusion around how much cap space we have moving forward. Feel free to disagree with it, but this is where I think we’re generally going. The math I did for this team at the time was based on bridge deals for Pettersson at 7.5 and Hughes on a 3 year, 6.5 million, and I've updated based on the contract that Hughes signed, and I’ve updated for where I think they will be when we get to the 2024/25 season. Names may change, but I think the numbers will be similar for anyone inserted through trades or signings etc. I’m working on the basis that the cap will rise 1 million per for the next few years, meaning that we'll have 84.5 million to play with in that season, although it’s sounding like we may have a significant jump 2024 season or before. Forwards: Pettersson - 10.5 million Per Boeser - 8 million per (likely 8 years) Horvat 7 million per (likely 8 years) Miller or Miller replacement 5 million per I'm assuming that he will eventually be pushed out by younger / cheaper player. Maybe Klimovich?? Garland 4.95 million per Dickinson 3 million per or similar player. He may be squeezed out by one of our upcoming by then at a lower cap hit. Motte 2.5 million - or similar player, I'm assuming that he will eventually be squeezed out by younger guys playing similar game Hoglander 5 million per - I'm assuming a bridge deal on this one, same as Pettersson and Hughes Podkolzin - 5 million per - I'm projecting his 2nd contract and assuming that it will likely be a bridge deal Total for Top 9 Forwards, 50.95 million Defense: OEL 7.26 million Hughes 7.75 million Rathbone 3.0 million - will sign a bridge deal, has no arbitration rights and can't get an offer sheet Defenseman who winds up replacing Juolevi 2.5 million Poolman I think will eventually be traded and replaced at similar cap hit, possibly to make room for Woo Total top 4 Defense: 20.51 Demko - 5 million - I'm assuming that we will carry one primary and a sub 1 million backup moving forward. Unless DiPietro proves he's better than Demko, DiPietro will eventually be moved for picks or prospects. I think we ride Demko at least till the end of his current contract. Total 76.46 projected 2024/25 cap hit! That leaves 8.04 million to round out the roster, not accounting for LTIR, which happens every year, or other changes. This is just my estimate, there will be trades and moves. I don't think Myers will be here till the end of his contract and it's very likely someone on my forward and defense projections will be moved to spread out cap space, the same as all competitive teams do. Look what has happened in Tampa the last few years on moving guys out to make room. I should actually save this somewhere and look back in 3 years and see how close I was. As before, go ahead and rip it to shreds I mean, it'll be fantastic if he's worth that much, but I don't think Petey will be $10.5M AAV. Technically, even in his best seasons so far, he hasn't even been a true PPG player. When you look at the guys all making $9M AAV or more right now, they've all been elite PPG+ players. Yes, that could change in a hurry, but until that happens, I'd see him more in the $8.5M to 9M range. Boeser would likely be locked up at his QO number unless he absolutely tears it up in the remainder of this season. So $7.5M on a longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasCanuck Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, HKSR said: I mean, it'll be fantastic if he's worth that much, but I don't think Petey will be $10.5M AAV. Technically, even in his best seasons so far, he hasn't even been a true PPG player. When you look at the guys all making $9M AAV or more right now, they've all been elite PPG+ players. Yes, that could change in a hurry, but until that happens, I'd see him more in the $8.5M to 9M range. Boeser would likely be locked up at his QO number unless he absolutely tears it up in the remainder of this season. So $7.5M on a longer term. Was accounting for continuing increase in the cap over the next few years. Would love to see us lock him up in the final year of his contract for closer to 9, but also being realistic on what happens every summer when all GM's go NUTS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said: Was accounting for continuing increase in the cap over the next few years. Would love to see us lock him up in the final year of his contract for closer to 9, but also being realistic on what happens every summer when all GM's go NUTS! I just hope the cap goes way up in a few years. It could mean the Canucks could keep the big 4 (Petey, Bo, Miller, and Boeser) together for long term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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