2023 NHL Entry Draft

[spook007]

1 hour ago, eeeeergh said:

I think thats all completely fair - I'd say though that there are enough guys that we can probably find in later rounds that could add those elements

Klimovich I think is a great example: big, plays nasty, and even has great hands, found in the second round

Even Linus Karlsson is a monstrous forechecker and is extremely physical. 

Mikheyev is fast, great north/south player

 

I mentioned this in an earlier thread I think, but I really believe that the salary cap has changed the optimal strategy for drafting

 

Before the cap, and even during the cap era in that time where everyone just spent close to the cap but nobody tried any funny business trying to really manipulate it, you could hold onto all your players as long as you wanted. You'd never let a good player go, just keep re-signing him and pay them what they want, as long as your owner lets you. 

 

Now, all teams are forced to let good players walk. Where you find value in the draft is 2 places:

 

1. Truly special players that teams wont ever let walk (EP, Hughes, caliber players)

2. Players who can step in and be impactful while on their ELCs, before youre forced to pay them what they're worth

 

Given the abundance of "good players" that are available through UFA, or even through trade whenever a team is forced to unload salary (like us, right now, having to give away Garland for free), id say it makes sense to just go for the player that has the highest possible ceiling

That's probably true, as Vegas. bar a few,  was built on left overs + a few stars. 
 

They got a real good d core and they have a few big stars up front, but they all buy into it and basically steam roll the other teams. 
Same as they did to us during the bubble. 
It was very one sided but Demko kept us in it. 
I was sold on their hockey that time, and nothing has changed my opinion since. 
 

Thats why I woildn't mind drafting a few forwards that can play a fast/heavy game. I know teams have to let players go, but we don't seem able to pick them up, as money matters. 
 

Anyway, many way to skin a cat, and that the beauty of these discussions. 
 

 

[NuckLuck19]

46 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Yes that's all that was mentioned.

 

 

 

 

Im warming up to Willander, seems like an impressive kid, love his drive to improve. I read an article that said wants to be a top pair D in the NHL. 

 

I do have this upside question with Danielson though, now I haven't watched him so it's just going off things you read / hear. What is it that gives you confidence otherwise?

In 3 years when we are starting to push for a cup (OEL traded with a pick and some retention)

 

Hughes Hronek

Shea Theadore (sign as UFA) Adam Larsson (sign as UFA)

EP2 Willander/Woo

Woo

 

Cap will be close to 100 mil by then.

Edited June 12, 2023 by NuckLuck19

[spook007]

2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Said a few times, our picks just need to hit.  Regardless of how they progress.  Whether it be to HOF status or just quality night in night out players that take away the needs to bargain shop or hit the free agency frenzy.

 

A player that can come in from the draft play responsibly and do the right things while not being a liability that we can get 7-10 good seasons out of is always a hit on a draft pick

+10.... exactly how I feel.

 

Great to draft a superstar, but it need to be a close to sure fire players, as we need to fill the roster all over the place, and at affordable contract without having to break the bank to get them. 

[HighOnHockey]

20 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

I've made two aggregate lists summarizing rankings from various media sources. Some (e.g., Pronman) I've excluded because I just personally found the rationale for his rankings to never make sense. 

 

This is the top 32 based on 49 rankings that date back as early as 2022. These rankings include multiple rankings from the same outlet (e.g., Button in the Fall, Button in the Winter, Button in June, etc.):

 

Connor Bedard
Adam Fantilli
Leo Carlsson
Matvei Michkov
Zach Benson
Will Smith
Dalibor Dvorsky
Eduard Sale
Oliver Moore
Brayden Yager
Andrew Cristall
Colby Barlow
Ryan Leonard
Calum Ritchie
Nate Danielson
Mikhail Gulyayev
Riley Heidt
Axel Sandin Pellikka
Matthew Wood
Otto Stenberg
Quentin Musty
Gabe Perreault
Gavin Brindley
David Reinbacher
Ethan Gauthier
Jayden Perron
Samuel Honzek 
Kasper Halttunen
Dmitri Simashev
Daniil But
Charlie Stramel
Lukas Dragicevic
 

 

Here are the rankings if you want to focus moreso on recency (e.g., between May and June). The rankings are based on 12 lists and none from the same person/outlet:

 

Connor Bedard
Adam Fantilli
Matvei Michkov
Leo Carlsson
Will Smith
Axel Sandin Pellikka
Zach Benson
Ryan Leonard
Oliver Moore
Dalibor Dvorsky
Colby Barlow
Gabe Perreault
David Reinbacher
Matthew Wood
Eduard Sale
Nate Danielson
Andrew Cristall
Gavin Brindley
Luca Cagnoni
Dmitri Simashev
Brayden Yager
Samuel Honzek 
Tom Wilander
Mikhail Gulyayev
Calum Ritchie
Otto Stenberg
Quentin Musty
Lukas Dragicevic
Riley Heidt
Daniil But
Jayden Perron
Oliver Bonk
 

Outstanding stuff. Much appreciated your posting. Got me thinking I'd like to do one of my own but just with the outlets I know and trust. You just assign each ranking 1 point for 1st overall and 50 points for 50th overall kinda thing? No weights I presume?

[Down by the River]

28 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

I've made two aggregate lists summarizing rankings from various media sources. Some (e.g., Pronman) I've excluded because I just personally found the rationale for his rankings to never make sense. 

 

The left-hand side represents the top 32 based on 49 rankings that date back as early as 2022. These rankings include multiple rankings from the same outlet (e.g., Button in the Fall, Button in the Winter, Button in June, etc.). The rankings on the right-hand side are if you want to focus moreso on recency (e.g., between April and June). The rankings in this column are based on 12 lists and none from the same person/outlet.

 

 

Whose stock has fallen? 

- Yager is out of the top 10 (10 to 18)

- Cristall out of the top 15 (11 to 16)

- Gulyayev dropped 5 spots (16 to 21)

- Heidt out of the top 20 (17 to 24)

 

Whose stock has risen?

- Reinbacher with the biggest jump (24 to 11)

- ASP into the top 10 (18 to 9)

- Leonard into the top 10 (13 to 8)

- Simashev moved 10 spots (29 to 19)

 

19 minutes ago, R3aL said:

Not exactly fair to exclude Pronman. For a public service scout he watches a lot of video. much more than a lot of other public list makers imo.

 

Should have done a third one including his just to see.

Edited to add Pronman as his own separate list. 

[Down by the River]

Just now, HighOnHockey said:

Outstanding stuff. Much appreciated your posting. Got me thinking I'd like to do one of my own but just with the outlets I know and trust. You just assign each ranking 1 point for 1st overall and 50 points for 50th overall kinda thing? No weights I presume?

No weights... yet lol. It becomes a problem deeper into the draft when different outlets rank a different number of players and Player X shows up on one list but not another. 

 

This is only the 2nd year I've done this, so its mostly just data collection at this point before I try to do anything more substantial. 

[NuckLuck19]

32 minutes ago, R3aL said:

Just the way he plays.

 

I like the way Danielson plays. Hes been leader on his team for sometime now. He doesn't play on a good team with great teammates.

 

You put him in a different situation, like say you swap his place with Yager and hes playing with Jagger Firkus or just on a a better CHL team with better players around him he'd look even better. Especially if he got a real playoff chance with another team hypothetically.

 

Nate plays playoff winning hockey to me. He is a true C. He has high Hockey Sense and makes players around him better. Hes an Elite Skater. He has a great shot, but doesn't shoot enough and it could be because hes carrying a lot of the offence on his back and when he drives play he makes space to set up line mates rather than finishing plays as much.

 

But he has HIGH compete, plays C the way it should be played, is an ELITE Skater and he has all the markers of an NHL C to me. And he does have the B game. Hes a guy that can play different roles as he develops. He can do it all. And we have no one like him in our system, these type of players are near impossible to acquire on their ELC without drafting them and the fact hes RHC makes him a tad more valuable.

 

I have less question marks about his upside than Oliver Moore for myself personally.

 

IF hes there at our pick it could be our next KOPITARZ moment. And how often do we draft a big, fast, skilled Canadian C out of the Dub?

 

I could see Willander being there and being our guy. I think Danielson gets scooped up before our pick.

 

6'2" 190 lb RH center, who can skate, is a good leader and can put up points on a crap team. I'd be happy with Nate. I just hope we don't go off the board to draft a little skilled guy, even like ASP. There's too much talent WITH size at 11 that we can draft. In fact I'm wondering who you take if he's there and so is Dvorsky. Both very high quality players, Danielson is a much better skater.

 

My order if they are ALL there at 11 (which I doubt)

 

Moore

Reinbacher

Willander

Danielson

Dvorksy

Edited June 12, 2023 by NuckLuck19

[NuckLuck19]

1 hour ago, spook007 said:

+10.... exactly how I feel.

 

Great to draft a superstar, but it need to be a close to sure fire players, as we need to fill the roster all over the place, and at affordable contract without having to break the bank to get them. 

We have alot of talent, we need size, grit and speed now. Of course you don't draft just for that, but no need for smaller high skilled guys who can disappear in the playoffs. Unless an "elite" smaller player falls to us.

With our focus on development with this new regime, I am confident whomever we draft, if he has the desire, will be a solid contributor for us. Just look at the strides Hoglander, Silovs, Woo, Kilmovich, Bains, and Karlson made in Abby this year. This isn't a fluke. It really shows how poor Benning and co were at this. One season and a we have a bunch of young kids who went from 'meh' who now look like they're 'coming' and will have a shot to play in the NHL at some point. Where they end up, who knows but its nice to see actual development. 

Assuming we grab kids with heart, character and a desire to compete, I am sure our development group will get the most out of them.

Edited June 12, 2023 by NuckLuck19

[R3aL]

35 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

With 49 publicly available rankings, I don't think he would have had much of an impact on 1-32.

 

Plus, what makes it unfair, lol? It's my list. I'm not selling it to you. 

Haha FAIR, but Coreys my boy!  

 

 

 

 

With that many listings probably not, but we will we will never know will we.. 

[86Viking]

1 hour ago, VancouverHabitant said:

I'd be happy with those three although I'm still holding hope that Benson or Simashev are there too and make it interesting. 

 

If all the big names are gone, including Reinbacher and Michkov, and none of the three aforementioned players have been taken, I wouldn't be shocked to see Allvin slide down to 15ish and get an extra 2nd or 3rd. 

 

Going down to 19th is not gonna happen as we could see all three of Danielson, Willander, and Barlow be gone by the time our pick comes around. 

 

Nashville at 15th would be a prime trading partner IMO. 

Trade the 11th and a forward with term like Garland for 15th? Nashville gets a useful forward that could help their top 6 group out? 

[R3aL]

16 minutes ago, NuckLuck19 said:

6'2" 190 lb RH center, who can skate, is a good leader and can put up points on a crap team. I'd be happy with Nate. I just hope we don't go off the board to draft a little skilled guy, even like ASP. There's too much talent WITH size at 11 that we can draft. In fact I'm wondering who you take if he's there and so is Dvorsky. Both very high quality players, Danielson is a much better skater.

 

My order if they are ALL there at 11 (which I doubt)

 

Moore

Reinbacher

Willander

Danielson

Dvorksy

If you watch him play or even his highlight videos you can see how he attacks, how he skates, how he uses his speed and frame to create space for his line mates. He sets guys up for easy goals. If he was playing with higher end wingers he would have had a monstrous year I think.

 

Choosing between Dvorsky and Danielson would be very difficult for me as they are in the same tier for me.

 

I am going to hold off for my final ranking but I have them both ine the same tier with Dvorsky slightly in front of him right now but I absolutely love Danielson full package and his skating is head and shoulders above Dvorskys.

 

And I take both over Moore.

 

[R3aL]

28 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

 

Edited to add Pronman as his own separate list. 

OK SIGN ME UP

 

TAKE MY MONEY 

 

Pronmans interesting takes are:

 

Hes higher on Danielson than even me and Ive been high on him all year. And he knows it and owns it.

 

He is lower on Benson than most, and for smaller skilled forwards he likes Perreault most.

 

And hes a big but fan... hehe

 

 

[NuckLuck19]

7 minutes ago, Neutral said:

Trade the 11th and a forward with term like Garland for 15th? Nashville gets a useful forward that could help their top 6 group out? 

Garland and Myers are both movable, just not before UFA season. This is why teams are trying to hold us hostage. We don't NEED to move them, we want to move out salary to improve this year, but at worst, we can wait it out a year.

 

As a result, paying 4 spots to move out Garland isn't wise. Wait until teams miss their targets in UFA, need wingers, and we get something back. Media likes to stir up nonsense that we HAVE to move out cap. We don't really. We're 600k over, that's solvable, even with a Myers move after his bonus.

 

Now we can't play in the UFA market then (maybe that's a good thing!), and it handcuffs us from making moves at the draft, but maybe being patient for one more year makes sense. Do we really want to do the same thing Benning did? (ie making bad short term moves when being patient for a year is better?)

Edited June 12, 2023 by NuckLuck19

[spook007]

2 hours ago, ilduce39 said:

I’ve waffled all over the place but if it’s down to Willander, Danielson or Barlow I like the way Allvin is thinking.

Particularly the C / D but haven’t looked as closely at Barlow.

There are some concerns regarding his assist numbers, but he scores and he plays well in both end of the rink. 
Something we are in dire need of, and they seem to think, he isn't far from joining the NHL. 

[NuckLuck19]

2 minutes ago, R3aL said:

If you watch him play or even his highlight videos you can see how he attacks, how he skates, how he uses his speed and frame to create space for his line mates. He sets guys up for easy goals. If he was playing with higher end wingers he would have had a monstrous year I think.

 

Choosing between Dvorsky and Danielson would be very difficult for me as they are in the same tier for me.

 

I am going to hold off for my final ranking but I have them both ine the same tier with Dvorsky slightly in front of him right now but I absolutely love Danielson full package and his skating is head and shoulders above Dvorskys.

 

And I take both over Moore.

 

Moore is Kesler with hands IMHO. He's been overshadowed by the top line in the USNDP, as he's been their 2c. He's the fastest player in the draft and I think he's going to be a star. I don't think he will fall to us anyways, so the point is likely moot.

[NuckLuck19]

Drance is screaming Willander is not a top 15 pick lol

To me that means take him!

[R3aL]

1 minute ago, spook007 said:

There are some concerns regarding his assist numbers, but he scores and he plays well in both end of the rink. 
Something we are in dire need of, and they seem to think, he isn't far from joining the NHL. 

Some of my concerns with Barlow have grown as the season has gone on.

 

Being so physically mature compared to his peers can be positive but it also can be a negative in projection this ceiling.

 

Like some of his goals he just overpowers kids and then just shoots through the goalie clean kind of like JV in his draft year.

 

But unlike Jake he has a better work ethic and competitive drive it looks like and hes much more mature than Jake at the same age.

 

I am more concerned about Barlows Skating than Woods. Especially when you factor in their heights and physical maturity.

 

Will Barlow be able to improve his skating drastically? Is he good enough to not? Will he be able to forecheck and create shooting lanes for himself without improving his skating?

 

I have more questions for Barlow then I do for Wood personally and I may be in the minority here but it is how I see it.

[R3aL]

4 minutes ago, NuckLuck19 said:

Drance is screaming Willander is not a top 15 pick lol

To me that means take him!

Haha! He knows so very little about him outside of pronouncing his name right and that he had a good u18 showing.

[R3aL]

14 minutes ago, NuckLuck19 said:

Moore is Kesler with hands IMHO. He's been overshadowed by the top line in the USNDP, as he's been their 2c. He's the fastest player in the draft and I think he's going to be a star. I don't think he will fall to us anyways, so the point is likely moot.

Moore is definitely the most explosive skater in the draft but I dont see the Kesler comp in Kesler had a mean streak and had the size. Moore doesn't have that.

 

I do like how Moore has a good head on his shoulders, I love his skating and that he identified this year he needs to use his speed more effectively. Being fast is useless if not used correctly as he would blow plays up or skate out of plays before they even develop at times because he was too fast. 

 

He did have some lack lustre showings at games I watched this year and they just really stuck with me.

 

Also Kesler had a better shot I think.

 

But if patient with Moore he does have a good path to play behind Cooley next year then the year after to take over the first line C duties.

 

I think he will take more time than Dvorsky, Danielson, Smith but if patient and things hit and he works really hard for sure he could be a special player. If not he could be a bottom 6 cogliano.

 

In fact Danielson could compare better to Kesler than Moore. But Danielson has a play making ability where he uses his teammates much more effectively and not quite the same tenacious / aggressive edge Kesler would play with. But in RHC, Height, and playing C well as a face-off man and psoitianlly I think they have more in common but still quite different.

 

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by R3aL

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

12 minutes ago, NuckLuck19 said:

Drance is screaming Willander is not a top 15 pick lol

To me that means take him!

I don't give a sh!t about Thomas Drance.