theminister Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 The following suggestion is an idea that I've been kicking around to ensure the NHL Draft Lottery is not only better for the long term health of fairness/parity in the NHL but also combines superior optics and creates a revenue generating TV spectacle. I want to begin by stating that this is a comprehensive idea that is unlike, IMHO, many of the more basic suggestions to tweak the system. Instead, this combines many elements suggested from previous fans that I have heard while adding an important component that creates both intrigue and options for fluidity for NHL GMs. I will attempt to be brief by posting in bullet form, to avoid too much text, but will be happy to answer any questions or further explain my rationale behind the concept. Basics: - Begin by making the Lottery even odds for all non-playoff teams regardless of the regular season record. - Make the Lottery a TV event that can encompass 2 or more hours similar to the draft. - Hold the Lottery immediately following the SCF ( the reasons for this will be described below) rather than after the end of the regular season - the Lottery is solely for the 1st overall pick Concept: - Make the Lottery a Live ball draw with balls from every participating team. - Instead of a single draw make the Lottery winner be the first team to draw 3 balls but place 6 balls per team in the machine (14 teams x 6 balls = 84 balls…. 90 or 96 depending on expansion) - Draw three balls immediately but wait for a period of 10 minutes between subsequent draws to allow teams to consider their new odds. (After every ball is drawn the odds would naturally change) - Allow teams to make trades with other teams based off of their newly increased or decreased odds. - Allow teams to trade for balls from other teams, at any time after during the lottery or leading up to it after the end of the regular season, including all NHL teams that qualified for the playoffs - Teams can trade for Unselected Balls or already Selected Balls - Each team begins with a 1/14 chance of winning, 7.1%, but that can increase or decrease as the day goes on Results: - In this way we create a media spectacle that would last for a long period of time, potentially, and would be great live TV (I would watch). - It would be a money generating event for the NHL. - It would allow coverage and speculating that would combine elements of the draft floor with ever changing calculated odds, not unlike a poker tournament. - It would provide clarity for the process of the Draft Lottery for the fans - This would help create roster fluidity in the cap era NHL. - There would be ZERO incentive for tanking Possible Scenario ( to understand how it might work): - The first three balls out of the machine are Edm, Ari, Tor (each team now only has 5 balls left out of 81 remaining… now only a 6.1% chance of the next ball being drawn is theirs, as opposed to the remaining teams which see their odds increase to 6/81 or 7.4%.) - Car is the next ball drawn. No trade movement on the lottery floor but lots of speculation. - Dal is the next ball followed then by a Phi ball. Still more chatter regarding deals but teams are reluctant. - Tor is the next ball giving them two… and the parade starts on Yonge St. - Just before the next draw the NHL announces a deal whereby Clb trades an Unselected Ball (UB) to Buf for a 4th round pick. - The next ball is Edm who now have two balls. - Lots of speculation that the Oilers are trying to trade for the last ball but the price is too high as teams with Selected Balls (SB) are asking for Jordan Eberle and Darnell Nurse. - Next ball is Buf… they now match Tor and Edm with two SB…. one away from winning… the suspense!!! - We are now 1 hour into the event. - Huge deal on the floor…. Col acquires two UB from Fla for a prospect. Fla now has 8 UB in the machine. - Clb shocks the floor by having the next two balls selected be theirs despite only having had 5 UB remaining after dealing one to Buf previously in the day. - NJ sensing that they are completely out of this race is phoning hard all over the floor trying to trade their lottery balls. The price to a team with two balls is extremely high as it ensures a winner but they are willing to deal their other balls to teams with fewer for a lesser cost. they are trying hard to make a deal with SJ for two balls but SJ doesn't feel they have the system depth to make a deal. NJ ends up moving a single UB to Phi for a 3rd and a 4th round pick and another one to Car for a prospect and a low pick. - With this Phi is the next ball drawn. They now have two SB and the tension is building around the arena. - NJ is the next ball drawn which shocks the floor. - After much chatter it appears that NJ is trading their single SB to in the next few minutes before the next draw…. - The NHL announces that NJ trades it's SB to Clb for Wennberg, Bjorkstrand, Savard and a 3rd. - Clb wins the draft Lottery with the only SB traded of the day. Total time 1 hour and 50 minutes. - Tor, Edm, Phi, Buf fans cry themselves too sleep from being so close to the winner but come up empty. Thoughts?!? Would you watch that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qwags Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 To me at least, this all seems like way to much effort for a single draft pick that will only affect the bottom 14 teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladeen Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Takes a lot of balls to propose this idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 25, 2015 Author Share Posted March 25, 2015 To me at least, this all seems like way to much effort for a single draft pick that will only affect the bottom 14 teams. As opposed to having a selection behind closed doors that could affect the franchises immeasurably with no influence from them and suspicion that it is fixed? Seems like fair swing to the other side to me. Are you saying you wouldn't watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 25, 2015 Author Share Posted March 25, 2015 Takes a lot of balls to propose this idea I knew that was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baer. Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Cool I guess but I wouldn't watch it. Sounds boring as hell. 2 hours of balls? Not even if the ball guy was a girl and hot instead of Bill friggin Daly and the geezer gang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Interesting idea for sure. The only issue is that GMs could totally screw their franchise on chance. High stakes gambling essentially; with the future of franchises in the balance. Too much risk instead of reward for the NHL IMO. I agree with a televised draft lottery draw. I think the best bet would be to just keep it simple. I like the idea of drawing for the top 3 or 5 picks in each draft with each non playoff team having 1 ball in the draw. You draw 5 balls with the last ball drawn being the first overall pick. Picks 6-14 (or 4-14) are determined by end of season standings. Obviously the 6th/4th pick would be given to the team with the lowest point total that didn't have a ball drawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalie13 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 It certainly appears you've put a lot of thought into this proposal but on the whole, I don't like it. I'm in favour of what the NHL has scheduled for next year where the top three picks will be drawn in the lottery. The only thing I would improve over that is televising the draw to make the process as transparent as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 25, 2015 Author Share Posted March 25, 2015 Cool I guess but I wouldn't watch it. Sounds boring as hell. 2 hours of balls? Not even if the ball guy was a girl and hot instead of Bill friggin Daly and the geezer gang. But what if your team was a lottery team that had the chance of making a deal for a generational talent? This would provide intrigue for the remaining 14 teams' fan bases that did not qualify for the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladeen Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 What happens if one team's balls are the first three drawn, you would now have 1 hour and 30 minutes of TV time with nothing to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 25, 2015 Author Share Posted March 25, 2015 Interesting idea for sure. The only issue is that GMs could totally screw their franchise on chance. High stakes gambling essentially; with the future of franchises in the balance. Too much risk instead of reward for the NHL IMO. I agree with a televised draft lottery draw. I think the best bet would be to just keep it simple. I like the idea of drawing for the top 3 or 5 picks in each draft with each non playoff team having 1 ball in the draw. You draw 5 balls with the last ball drawn being the first overall pick. Picks 6-14 (or 4-14) are determined by end of season standings. Obviously the 6th/4th pick would be given to the team with the lowest point total that didn't have a ball drawn. Teams take that risk now by trading picks regardless. That isn't a substantially different element all told. That's also not a bad idea but it takes away from the media spectacle which would be the point of the event. It also negates any real intrigue as teams will not be moving their picks substantially either on that day or leading up to it compared to the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skirbs11 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Im a Huge fan of trades and deals, so would i watch it YES, is it logical and No, seems like to much of a gimmick to be take seriously with league officials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 25, 2015 Author Share Posted March 25, 2015 It certainly appears you've put a lot of thought into this proposal but on the whole, I don't like it. I'm in favour of what the NHL has scheduled for next year where the top three picks will be drawn in the lottery. The only thing I would improve over that is televising the draw to make the process as transparent as possible. Again… while that is better for the optics of the NHL to ensure confidence in the system it becomes almost entirely anti-climactic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etsen3 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Pierre McGuire should be the commentator. I've heard he's very enthusiastic about balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dogbyte Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I like the general concept, especially with a 2 hour show to cover it but I'd like to see all 14 spots up for grabs with slightly differing but very similar odds for each team. For me that would be far more exciting as every fan of those 14 teams would watch to see where they fall. You kind of lost me when you said a team can trade for an selected ball and win the lottery if they have two already? I'm not sure why but I don't think that would fly. It would be interesting but I'd like to see something more straight forward. So I guess if someone gets two balls a lot of teams would consider selling all of theirs for next to nothing seeing as the lottery would most likely soon be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 25, 2015 Author Share Posted March 25, 2015 What happens if one team's balls are the first three drawn, you would now have 1 hour and 30 minutes of TV time with nothing to talk about. While possible… without any subsequent deals… the odds would be 6/84 (7.1%) x 5/83 (6.025%) x 4/82 (4.88%) or a 2.1% chance of happening. In other words… not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qwags Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 In response to theminister(because the quote button seems to be broken for me): Admittedly, you've put a lot of thinking into this, and I would be lying if I said I wouldn't take a peek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 25, 2015 Author Share Posted March 25, 2015 I like the general concept, especially with a 2 hour show to cover it but I'd like to see all 14 spots up for grabs with slightly differing but very similar odds for each team. For me that would be far more exciting as every fan of those 14 teams would watch to see where they fall. You kind of lost me when you said a team can trade for an selected ball and win the lottery if they have two already? I'm not sure why but I don't think that would fly. It would be interesting but I'd like to see something more straight forward. So I guess if someone gets two balls a lot of teams would consider selling all of theirs for next to nothing seeing as the lottery would most likely soon be over. My personal feeling is that adjusting the odds based on the regular season record is something that needs to be avoided entirely. That's exactly the point…. it would change how they assess the value of that asset as the day goes along. No one would be handing the pick to another team with a sizeable return as it would be like trading the 1st overall pick even though you don't own it. This fact alone allows truely rebuilding teams to make deals to restock their cupboards without giving up a tangible asset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ComptonCanuck Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 excellent idea would watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dogbyte Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Also would this mean teams have a chance to get two picks and some teams get none. For instance. The Stars get three first and their other 3 are drawn before the Kings first three. Would the Stars get 2 picks in the top 14 and the Kings would get none? My personal feeling is that adjusting the odds based on the regular season record is something that needs to be avoided entirely. That's exactly the point…. it would change how they assess the value of that asset as the day goes along. No one would be handing the pick to another team with a sizeable return as it would be like trading the 1st overall pick even though you don't own it. This fact alone allows truely rebuilding teams to make deals to restock their cupboards without giving up a tangible asset. Yeah it's interesting. Really I would like it done in tiers where groups of teams all have the same odds. 1-5, 6-10, 11-14, but yeah nothing more I would like than getting away from the overly weighted system we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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