Hawk eagle = hockey goal Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 With Vancouver considered to have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL (recently ranked 4th from dobberprospects), I decided to look back at teams that ranked highly in terms of prospect pools from a few years back and how they have come along since. I found an article by thehockeywriters from the summer of 2016: https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-prospect-pools-the-complete-ranking/ so this is what I'll refer to. Below are the top 10 ranked teams from the article, their place in the standings the year before the rankings then each year afterwards and any prospects from the list that have made an impact for the team in the past 2 years. 10. Boston Bruins 2015-16 point total: 93pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 95pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) 2017-18 point total: 112pts (made playoffs, lost 2nd rd) Prospects on team as of 2017-18: Jake DeBrusk, Brandon Carlo, Charlie McAvoy 9. New Jersey Devils 2015-16 point total: 84pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 70pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 97pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha, *Jesper Bratt * - Was a Devil's prospect at the time of the article but wasn't listed 8. Calgary Flames 2015-16 point total: 77pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 94pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) 2017-18 point total: 84pts (missed playoffs) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Jankowski 7. New York Islanders 2015-16 point total: 100pts (made playoffs, lost 2nd rd) 2016-17 point total: 94pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 80pts (missed playoffs) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Josh Ho-sang, Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech 6. Carolina Hurricanes 2015-16 point total: 86pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 87pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 83pts (missed playoffs) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Sebastian Aho, Haydn Fleury, Phil Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn, 5. Philadelphia Flyers 2015-16 point total: 96pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) 2016-17 point total: 88pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 98pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov, Oskar Lindblom, Travis Sanheim, Robert Hagg, Taylor Leier, Jordan Weal, 4. Columbus Blue Jackets 2015-16 point total: 76pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 108pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) 2017-18 point total: 97pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Zach Werenski, Sonny Milano, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Josh Anderson 3. Toronto Maple Leafs 2015-16 point total: 69pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 95pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) 2017-18 point total: 105pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Austin Matthews, Mitch Marner, Travis Dermott, William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen, Connor Brown, Connor Carrick, Nikita Zaitsev 2. Arizona Coyotes 2015-16 point total: 78pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 70pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 70pts (missed playoffs) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Clayton Keller, Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome, Christian Fischer, Brendan Pirlini, Christian Dvorak 1. Winnipeg Jets 2015-16 point total: 78pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 87pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 114pts (made playoffs, lost 3rd rd) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Patrick Laine, Kyle Connor, Jack Roslovic, Marko Dano, Nicolas Petan, Josh Morrissey, Some extra stats: Number of teams making playoffs in 2015-16: 2 Number of teams making playoffs in 2016-17: 4 Number of teams making playoffs in 2017-18: 5 Average points change from 2015-16 to 2016-17: 5.1 pts Average points change from 2016-17 to 2017-18: 5.2 pts Average points change from 2015-16 to 2017-18: 10.3 pts Biggest changers were Toronto and Winnipeg who both increased a total of 36 points over the past 2 seasons. Discussion: So from this, you can see that having a solid prospect pool does not guarantee success in the short-term as teams like Arizona and the Islanders both got worse over these years even while getting some significant help from some prospects like Barzal, Beauvillier, Keller, Chychrun, etc. but there is certainly potential if you get some big impacts from prospects (along with making other good moves of course). Toronto and Winnipeg are the best examples of teams that have taken off in the past couple years and it is thanks in large part to some of their young players. Matthews, Marner and Nylander have had huge impacts for Toronto while Laine, Connor and Morrissey have had done the same for Winnipeg. There was an average increase in points among this group of 10.3 which suggests that on average teams with better prospect pools will improve even within just 1-2 years. and where only 2 of these teams made the playoffs in 2015-16, 5 made it 2 years later with Winnipeg even going as far as the conference finals. Another thing to note is that the teams in the top 5 seem to have had bigger changes than those 6-11 going from 1 playoff team in 15-16 to 4 this past season with Toronto and Columbus making it each of the past 2 years. As a Canucks fan, this makes me optimistic about the near future of the team and hopefully the wait to get back into the playoffs is short. Losing 3 of the team's top 5 scorers from the past season in the Sedins and Vanek probably puts Vancouver in a different position than a lot of these teams so it's a bit harder to judge when they may make it however, but if 4 of the top 5 ranked teams from 2 years ago made the playoffs this past year, who knows. Let me know what you think, does this help to increase your optimism about the near future for the Canucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReggieBush Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 Just shows how important goaltending is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boognish Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 Interesting write up and definitely some interesting outcomes, let’s hope the Canucks can proceed like our fellow Canadian teams. With our pool having offencive and defensive depth, I think it’s possible, even more probable, that we see some playoff action in 2-3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undrafted Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 If anything, I think what this shows is that good drafting is only part of the equation to (re-) building a winning hockey team. IMO, the reason why teams like AZ, CAR and NYI have failed is a combination of mismanagement and development. Also worth noting that all three of those teams also suffer from ownership instability, which probably contributes to the previous two things I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apple Juice Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 Keep in mind the Bruins only notable prospects are the three that you mentioned. The rest of their recent draft picks have yet to play in the NHL and that's including their befuddlement of Zboril, DeBrusk, and Senyshyn. Although DeBrusk is now an NHLer, can't say the same for Zboril and Senyshyn. Also forgetting Jesper Bratt for the Devils who had a marvellous rookie season this past year especially since he was a 6th round pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.53 Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 Great write up. The only thing that I disagree with, is the 3 year mark. I don't think anyone really sees players 21-22 and younger making that much significant impact. Those players will make their impact when they are 25 or so. Now that is what I feel people don't understand. Destroying your team for prospects doesn't usually work because you see success so far down the line, that you can expect a few GMs and Coaches to have lost their job by then. You need to draft well, and remain competitive to kind of re-kick your franchise back into competition in a few yeas rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob_Zepp Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 Good thread. Couple of things: This missed a few "prospects" that had just emerged for a few of the teams (e.g. DP with Boston) who are now elite contributors The three year mark is a bit artificial as may be fine for those teams (e.g. Bruins) who had some that had just emerged in 2016 but not as good for others, Leafs, who were still pulling themselves out of the muck....a few more years needed for some of the teams A few of those teams also failed to support their prospect development with decent veteran signings Not all prospects make it....that will be same situation for Canucks (including some of the ones pegged to be great...they won't be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 On 2018-07-10 at 12:32 AM, Hawk eagle = hockey goal said: With Vancouver considered to have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL (recently ranked 4th from dobberprospects), I decided to look back at teams that ranked highly in terms of prospect pools from a few years back and how they have come along since. I found an article by thehockeywriters from the summer of 2016: https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-prospect-pools-the-complete-ranking/ so this is what I'll refer to. Below are the top 10 ranked teams from the article, their place in the standings the year before the rankings then each year afterwards and any prospects from the list that have made an impact for the team in the past 2 years. 10. Boston Bruins 2015-16 point total: 93pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 95pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) 2017-18 point total: 112pts (made playoffs, lost 2nd rd) Prospects on team as of 2017-18: Jake DeBrusk, Brandon Carlo, Charlie McAvoy 9. New Jersey Devils 2015-16 point total: 84pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 70pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 97pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha, 8. Calgary Flames 2015-16 point total: 77pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 94pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) 2017-18 point total: 84pts (missed playoffs) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Jankowski 7. New York Islanders 2015-16 point total: 100pts (made playoffs, lost 2nd rd) 2016-17 point total: 94pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 80pts (missed playoffs) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Josh Ho-sang, Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech 6. Carolina Hurricanes 2015-16 point total: 86pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 87pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 83pts (missed playoffs) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Sebastian Aho, Haydn Fleury, Phil Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn, 5. Philadelphia Flyers 2015-16 point total: 96pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) 2016-17 point total: 88pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 98pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov, Oskar Lindblom, Travis Sanheim, Robert Hagg, Taylor Leier, Jordan Weal, 4. Columbus Blue Jackets 2015-16 point total: 76pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 108pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) 2017-18 point total: 97pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Zach Werenski, Sonny Milano, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Josh Anderson 3. Toronto Maple Leafs 2015-16 point total: 69pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 95pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) 2017-18 point total: 105pts (made playoffs, lost 1st rd) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Austin Matthews, Mitch Marner, Travis Dermott, William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen, Connor Brown, Connor Carrick, Nikita Zaitsev 2. Arizona Coyotes 2015-16 point total: 78pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 70pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 70pts (missed playoffs) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Clayton Keller, Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome, Christian Fischer, Brendan Pirlini, Christian Dvorak 1. Winnipeg Jets 2015-16 point total: 78pts (missed playoffs) 2016-17 point total: 87pts (missed playoffs) 2017-18 point total: 114pts (made playoffs, lost 3rd rd) Prospects in NHL as of 2017-18: Patrick Laine, Kyle Connor, Jack Roslovic, Marko Dano, Nicolas Petan, Josh Morrissey, Some extra stats: Number of teams making playoffs in 2015-16: 2 Number of teams making playoffs in 2016-17: 4 Number of teams making playoffs in 2017-18: 5 Average points change from 2015-16 to 2016-17: 5.1 pts Average points change from 2016-17 to 2017-18: 5.2 pts Average points change from 2015-16 to 2017-18: 10.3 pts Biggest changers were Toronto and Winnipeg who both increased a total of 36 points over the past 2 seasons. Discussion: So from this, you can see that having a solid prospect pool does not guarantee success in the short-term as teams like Arizona and the Islanders both got worse over these years even while getting some significant help from some prospects like Barzal, Beauvillier, Keller, Chychrun, etc. but there is certainly potential if you get some big impacts from prospects (along with making other good moves of course). Toronto and Winnipeg are the best examples of teams that have taken off in the past couple years and it is thanks in large part to some of their young players. Matthews, Marner and Nylander have had huge impacts for Toronto while Laine, Connor and Morrissey have had done the same for Winnipeg. There was an average increase in points among this group of 10.3 which suggests that on average teams with better prospect pools will improve even within just 1-2 years. and where only 2 of these teams made the playoffs in 2015-16, 5 made it 2 years later with Winnipeg even going as far as the conference finals. Another thing to note is that the teams in the top 5 seem to have had bigger changes than those 6-11 going from 1 playoff team in 15-16 to 4 this past season with Toronto and Columbus making it each of the past 2 years. As a Canucks fan, this makes me optimistic about the near future of the team and hopefully the wait to get back into the playoffs is short. Losing 3 of the team's top 5 scorers from the past season in the Sedins and Vanek probably puts Vancouver in a different position than a lot of these teams so it's a bit harder to judge when they may make it however, but if 4 of the top 5 ranked teams from 2 years ago made the playoffs this past year, who knows. Let me know what you think, does this help to increase your optimism about the near future for the Canucks? Excellent OP, thread, post. There's a great hockey reference and bio for prospects for each NHL team including a ranking for each player and each team called the Future Watch by THN which publishes two or three mags/articles per year and covers all things prospects and 23 and under quite well. Three years ago they predicted WNP would win a cup around 2019 and then become the best team in the NHL for a while and it certainly seems possible now. Vancouver was one of a few teams to have five guys in the top hundred (Pettersson ranked 2, but that was a month before he went on his playoff roll, now he's bumped that Casey guy from Buffulo as the best prospect in the world). For me the most exciting thing is watching our teams prospects get better and better each year, both as players and as a team ranking. The dam has to burst eventually, just like it did in TO three years ago and each year in WNP the past five years (Vancouver is closer to their model then TO's as far as prospects go, management won't throw everyone in at once to see what sticks like TO did three years ago after they traded everything). The take away from this is Benning has guys getting ready to make an impact on each key roles, once they get in and establish themselves we should become a team to he reckoned with, especially when you consider the CALI teams will just be starting their rebuilds in full when we have our current guys settled in. It's rare that teams win with 23 and unders driving the bus, it's the 23-30 range that will give us the best chance at a cup. Five years is a long time, but that's when our window will be the widest. Things will be swinging back to how they were before ANA,SJ and Vegas were added, back to beating on the Alberta teams for a playoff spot and tops in yja division...sounds good to me. 2023 can't come any sooner. edit: looking at this list WNP,TO and PHI are going to be great teams very soon if they aren't already. Tavares kind of screwed NYI or I would add them to the list. The scary thing is all three of those teams STILL have great pools, that's what I'm hoping Benning is working on creating for us, making the playoffs would be nice this year, but even better we finish around the same and this year we pick top three, AND purge some vets to make room and add more picks, NYI added some nice pieces this year, you never know in a couple years that could bump them up in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCNate Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 Out of the top 10 pools from 3 years ago there are: 3 legit cup contenders: Boston, Winnipeg, Toronto 1 Solid playoff team: Columbus 4 fringe playoff teams who are compete NJ, Philly, Carolina, Calgary 2 Lottery teams: NYI, Arizona- NYI would have had promise with Tavares, or the return they got for tavares, but they are now in a bit of a rebuild. Should be quick giving they have some good young players, and just had a great draft. Arizona is getting better. I feel they completely blew their draft this year, but they aren't far off. 8 out of 10 teams missed the playoffs 3 years ago, and now 8 of 10 should compete for spots this year. I think this is a really cool thread, thanks OP, nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wai_lai416 Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 i dunno but i think most of the teams on that list majority of their core players were still from before 2016.. Boston's top 6, chara rask etc, Columbus, calgary, etc etc i mean the newly added prospect helps but it's not like the prospects were the reason why they are competing for the playoff.. where for us it's mostly starting from scratch.. we didn't have the foundation of those teams to just add couple of good prospect and all of a sudden compete for a playoff spot.. and most of those team have elite or multiple elite star players on that roster complimented by good players and some great prospect.. but mainly they have solid defense and goaltending something we still need to work on.. maybe demko and dipetro is the solution maybe not, but out defense is still a big work in progress.. by the time in a few years the team is ready to possibly compete.. we'll have just juolevi and hughes fingers crossed are legitimate NHL defensemen.. Tanev if not traded will be on his decline, Edler prolly retired, and then there's not much to look at for our D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk eagle = hockey goal Posted July 14, 2018 Author Share Posted July 14, 2018 3 hours ago, wai_lai416 said: i dunno but i think most of the teams on that list majority of their core players were still from before 2016.. Boston's top 6, chara rask etc, Columbus, calgary, etc etc i mean the newly added prospect helps but it's not like the prospects were the reason why they are competing for the playoff.. where for us it's mostly starting from scratch.. we didn't have the foundation of those teams to just add couple of good prospect and all of a sudden compete for a playoff spot.. and most of those team have elite or multiple elite star players on that roster complimented by good players and some great prospect.. but mainly they have solid defense and goaltending something we still need to work on.. maybe demko and dipetro is the solution maybe not, but out defense is still a big work in progress.. by the time in a few years the team is ready to possibly compete.. we'll have just juolevi and hughes fingers crossed are legitimate NHL defensemen.. Tanev if not traded will be on his decline, Edler prolly retired, and then there's not much to look at for our D I think you're right in that the Canucks are a bit farther off than most of these teams and may take a bit longer to make the playoffs. However, if you look at Toronto, their foundation was pretty bad before suddenly making a jump from dead last straight into the playoffs. And it had a lot to do with Matthews, Marner, Nylander and also Zaitsev coming in in the same season and playing big time roles. I'm not saying the same will happen for the Canucks, (in fact I would be surprised if it did happen this year) but that these jumps can happen with the right combination of players coming in at the right time. I would also argue that even with most of the cores being there before 2016: Columbus does not make playoffs last season without Dubois and Werenski, Philadelphia doesn't make it without Proverov, Sanheim and Konecny, and Toronto doesn't make it without Matthews, Marner and Nylander. You're right in saying that these guys are generally not the main reason that their teams are in the playoffs but they can be what puts a team over the top. Young players can make a big difference in the NHL today and they can sometimes make it very early. For instance, Marner, Barzal and Keller (who all show up here) each led their respective teams in points this past year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wai_lai416 Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 7 hours ago, Hawk eagle = hockey goal said: I think you're right in that the Canucks are a bit farther off than most of these teams and may take a bit longer to make the playoffs. However, if you look at Toronto, their foundation was pretty bad before suddenly making a jump from dead last straight into the playoffs. And it had a lot to do with Matthews, Marner, Nylander and also Zaitsev coming in in the same season and playing big time roles. I'm not saying the same will happen for the Canucks, (in fact I would be surprised if it did happen this year) but that these jumps can happen with the right combination of players coming in at the right time. I would also argue that even with most of the cores being there before 2016: Columbus does not make playoffs last season without Dubois and Werenski, Philadelphia doesn't make it without Proverov, Sanheim and Konecny, and Toronto doesn't make it without Matthews, Marner and Nylander. You're right in saying that these guys are generally not the main reason that their teams are in the playoffs but they can be what puts a team over the top. Young players can make a big difference in the NHL today and they can sometimes make it very early. For instance, Marner, Barzal and Keller (who all show up here) each led their respective teams in points this past year. columbus i'll argue is only competitive coz of bobrovski they made it previous year before dubois even made the team and went on that ridiculous winnign streakj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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