Provost

Have you bothered to mention that everything you posted to try to derail this thread has been shown to be completely wrong and without a shred of connection to reality? Of course not, that isn't your style... just like to crap on conversations without adding any substance.

Why pick up a pending UFA who needs to use up a protection slot and we can't get for a couple weeks due to quarantine? Really doesn't seem to make much sense for us. A team like St. Louis might want to beef up for a run. If they want to trade us Borgen (who they won't be able to protect in expansion and is out for most of the season with a broken forearm anyways) for Virtanen.. then by all means. If they want to give up Ristolainen, sure lets put together a package. Montour is more attractive as a rental to someone with playoff aspirations and doesn't have the aggressive, stay at home skills that we need to add and will be available during expansion for cheap.

highlight reel fanboy, noob, poop emoji

Hmmm.... it is almost as if folks have the ability to look at posts and quote them. It didn't take long for you to start trolling the thread I started (anyone can go to the first page and see) and start name calling and posting stuff that is verifiably wrong while going on unrelated tirades making stuff up that I said for your own straw man arguments. Crazy... Here I am the highlight reel fanboy, noob, poop emoji on a train wreck of the thread responding to the actual outcomes.... It is funny, because if I am as terrible as all your name calling suggests... and I keep turning out to be right and you wrong every single time... how bad does that make you at hockey knowledge? Yikes

That is by far the most generous model. If you look under the hood on that one it is pretty bad. Their model ignore the first 20 games of the season (basically all of this season) and made their game winning prediction model based on games between about 2008-2014. We don't have that team anymore. All the other models, and the most accurate ones from the betting sites that actually make a living on it give us just over 4% chance.

I think a 2nd for Pearson, 3rd for Sutter, 4-5th for Benn is kind of the upper range. The magic would be unloading any of Baertschi, Roussel, Beagle, or Virtanen for anything.

OK, we get your are OEL's agent trying to drum up support for one of the two destinations you client wants to go to... but really no. Not unless they eat a decent chunk of that contract and take some money back for next season when we can't afford him and the raises to our own players that are due.

Only if they retain salary at this point. It was really "iffy" before, but another year of his prime gone off that bad contract and still all the expected bad years makes it a bad deal. Most lists of worst contracts in the league have the OEL one on there. It also has a NMC which now carries even if he gets traded which means we can't demote or trade him in the later years of the contract. OEL at $5-6 million over that span sure... at $8.25... that is horrible and can really hamper us in the long term. We are better off getting a much cheaper guy who might get exposed in expansion.

Hard not to want to grab Schenn with his history on our team. Even knowing we aren't making it anywhere this season, having some grit to help keep it a safe working environment for our players might be worthwhile. I guess it partly depends on how long Hamonic is out, I haven't been following his injury status at all. Partly, it also allows us to send one more of the younger guys to Utica and actually start playing games rather than sitting around.

Except that from many of the posts responding to the opposite that isn't true. It also shouldn't be a shock to everyone and cause to flame someone for posting the truth with evidence to back it up. It isn't negative to start thinking about how we can set up the team to win in the future. There are opportunities to be had which can make us a lot better as soon as next season, read through the thread and I outlined them. A person can be a fan without being a complete blind homer. I also did point out several times in the offseason and at the beginning of the season, that the entire difference between us being a playoff bubble team last year and being a bottom 5 was the wins above expected that Markstrom got us with his Vezina level goaltending. Not that we should have kept him at that price and term, but that if you replaced him with just average goaltending (which is still pretty good), we are a lottery team unless we could pick up wins somewhere else in the lineup.

I think it is fair to say he has been given more opportunities than he earned. That happens with 1st round picks all the time, so you can’t fault this regime particularly since every team does it. I don’t get the insistence on keeping him though. As an organization, you have more info on your player than everyone else does. Green has been coaching him since the minors, and Benning has watched him for years. If they didn’t see what they needed for t he first few years (which clearly they didn’t), why not move him while he still had value. Even before his short run of good play mid last season, Virtanen had value. Size, skill, speed, draft pedigree... those things are easily marketable. Get something else in return before he shows the rest of the league what he really is. Even more importantly, communicate between coach and GM. If the coach doesn’t have confidence in the player (even if he is right) and isn’t going to play him... that is going to devalue the player as an asset and needs to be considered. I really think it is a bad look for the other players to sign Virtanen and then have to get rid of a workhorse who was really popular in the room like Stecher who would have come in at half the price. Stecher was out after losses facing the press... he was out in the community and seen in pictures with his teammates.

Here is Drance basically repeating word for word everything I posted here along with all the exact same logic why it matters... just a few days later than I did. Drance, if you are reading, you are welcome for having your job made easier... https://theathletic.com/2402689/2021/02/22/vancouver-canucks-trade-deadline-proactive/?source=dailyemail

It is fine not knowing stuff... plenty of things I don’t know and am wrong about. It is how he craps on people while being the one who is entirely ignorant. I was referencing how every single sports outlet had carried the story of the NHL tweaking the draft rules... and he was being a jackass like I was just making it up. Also... clearly Gudbranson is a legit top pairing D man! You, everyone else on the forum, all the coaching staff on his teams, and the rest of the hockey world are wrong and just don’t understand hockey like he does!!! :D

For me, the bottom 6 should include role players... energy guys, fighters, PKers, etc. The difference between winning and losing can be those role players. I don’t think the “dude who stayed out at the bar too late, and occasionally decides to put in an effort on the ice ” role is really that useful. That mid round pick can be flipped for a player during the expansion process, and that cap space can be used to pay for the three big raises we owe RFAS this summer.

... and guess who is up 2-0... EDIT: 3-0 This is so Canucks. The only things left for the season is for the GM to “run out of time” to trade expiring contract players for futures... and then for us to go on a 6-0 run exactly after we are mathematically eliminated, And just enough to drop us down in the draft lottery. I lived through the 80’s and 90’s with this team, so nothing can hurt me anymore!

If they haven't up until now, it isn't likely they will. The dude comes onto a thread I made (as always), starts talking verifiable nonsense and name calling... then when he gets replied to, he starts whining about it how people are engaging with his nonense. He is just rage posting because it literally took only two days for most people to realize he was completely full of it and objectively wrong... The math is exactly what we were saying. Normally it takes a little more time so it doesn't sting for him as much. Now instead of posting any actual content, because the positions he was holding and insisting that everyone was stupid not to believe are entirely indefensible,... it is just more personal attacks and spam to try to hide that he again has nothing useful to say about the issues being discussed. The guy is so ignorant about what is actually going on in the hockey world, he even acts like a pretentious prat with people talking about leading headlines. (the league is literally looking at tweaking the NHL draft lottery rules to increase the very bottom team's chances of winning) https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2106945 https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2021/02/12/nhl-draft-lottery-will-always-leave-some-fans-teams-unhappy/

.... so you can disagree with signing him, but also have to sign him for at least 4 years. That is the worst designed poll since Trump asked what people thought of his performance: a) The Bestest Every President in the History of the Universe b) Just the best President EVER on Earth c) Just the bestest President of the USA d) Tied with Reagan and Jesus How about, no we shouldn't extend Green... more for the fact that Benning's replacement will want to assess and choose his own coach... which may or may not be Green. The difference between this season and last season is the horses in the barn... that is on the GM.

I think the guys on expiring contracts are probably tradeable at some point in the season. They are all NHL calibre players, or at least depth pieces... once you get rid of cap concerns as the season progresses they become moveable... just like many plugs do every trade deadline. If we can move Roussel, Beagle, and Virtanen... that would be a tougher ask, but also still possible.

You are absolutely right... I was combining two different things in my head on that one. We can slightly catch up to Edmonton that night in the standings, but they have games in hand to make up more points. We can’t catch up much on the pack since there are guaranteed points that night going to another team we are chasing.

Actually..I find it quite freeing to have accepted that we aren't going to make the playoffs (short of a miracle)... the opposite of anxiety inducing. I don't have to worry about wins and loses anymore on a given night. That was just an explanation for other folks to get similar mental relief. Now it is back to the familiar pattern of learning about the top draft prospects and any player movement that might benefit us. There has even been talk or skipping this year's draft completely and holding two drafts next year once the prospects are playing again... that would be pretty ideal for us as we would be getting a 19 year old with more information at our disposal. I doubt it will happen as the league is going to want something for the news cycle this year, especially for Seattle to get their first ever pick... but who knows.

This is almost certainly going to just blow over. The Rangers aren't likely looking for a chance to get out of Panarin's contract anyways, and it would take a lot more than an unsubstantiated allegation to let them to it anyways. Add in the political dimension, and Russia's pretty common tactic of misinformation... they can't really believe anything coming from there anyways.

Just another example of how hard it will be to make up ground on so many teams ahead of us who are playing each other a bunch... and how many nights, even if we win, we can't actually gain anything in the standings, certainly not at a rate to gain enough ground by the end of the season. Tonight: Calgary and Toronto - We can't gain any ground in the playoff race even if Calgary loses because they aren't in the playoffs yet either. We can only lose ground if Calgary wins because they move farther ahead of us. Tuesday: Canadiens vs. Senators Canucks vs. Edmonton Out of all the possible outcomes in regulation or OT... we need to win in regulation or OT, AND need Ottawa to win in regulation or OT. Any other combination of us losing or Ottawa winning and we lose ground (even if we win and Montreal wins.. we lose ground because we have less remaining opportunities to pick up the required points before the season ends and have to play at a higher clip to make them up the few games that remain). Wednesday: Flames vs. Maple Leafs - We can't gain any ground as Calgary doesn't hold a playoff spot, we can only lose ground if Calgary wins as they move farther ahead of us. Thursday: Flames vs. Senators Canadiens vs. Jets Canucks vs. Edmonton Even if we win in regulation, we can barely gain any ground as one of Montreal and Winnipeg will also get as many points as us... we can creep up a little on Edmonton in terms of removing one of their games in hand. Any other combination of outcomes mean we lose ground Friday: No Games Saturday: Leafs vs. Oilers Canadiens vs. Jets We can only lose ground as at least one, if not all three teams we are chasing for a playoff spots gains points. Sunday: No Games So... a week from now, even if everything goes perfectly and we win ALL our games and all the teams we need to lose, lose EVERY ONE of their games... we will barely be any closer to the playoffs because games in hand by teams above us are being played between those same teams and one of them will get points. Almost all the combinations of possible outcomes result in us losing more ground for a playoff spot... even if we win both our games, which is a tall order in itself.

I have always been going with 61-63 points for the playoff bar.... so pretty close. Montreal, Winnipeg, and Edmonton are in a virtual tie once you factor in games played and winning %. Edmonton is actually the lowest of the three and just look better in the standings because of games played. We have to play .650 hockey for the rest of the season to even have a chance, and most of our wins need to come against the teams we are fighting for the last spots... otherwise the bar gets higher. .650 hockey equates to a 106 point season over a regular 82 games. When was the last time we played hockey at that level? The especially bad news is that we have to root for Calgary to win a lot (less than us)... because we need them to take points away from Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Montreal. If Calgary falls completely apart (they are still winning way more than us right now)... then it is even harder to make the playoffs because the cut off bar gets too high. We need one of those teams currently in a playoff spot to go on a tear and take away points form the other teams we are chasing that are already in a playoff spot. The summary is we are pooched, and we’re a couple of days ago when I made this thread. There was no mathematical way we were going to come out of the weekend with a better chance dr of making the playoffs than when it started actually zero, we were assured of having our odds go down even in the best possible outcome. If we won both our games and Calgary/Edmonton split theirs... our odds still would have dropped as we wouldn’t have gained ground points-wise on a playoff spot... and would have less remaining opportunities to make up ground.

4% playoff odds...